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Background and objectives
AKI treated with dialysis initiation is a common complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among hospitalized patients. However, dialysis supplies and personnel are often limited.
Design, setting, participants, & measurements
Using data from adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from five hospitals from theMount Sinai Health System who were admitted between March 10 and December 26, 2020, we developed and validated several models (logistic regression, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO), random forest, and eXtreme GradientBoosting [XGBoost; with and without imputation]) for predicting treatment with dialysis or death at various time horizons (1, 3, 5, and 7 days) after hospital admission. Patients admitted to theMount Sinai Hospital were used for internal validation, whereas the other hospitals formed part of the external validation cohort. Features included demographics, comorbidities, and laboratory and vital signs within 12 hours of hospital admission.
Results
A total of 6093 patients (2442 in training and 3651 in external validation) were included in the final cohort. Of the different modeling approaches used, XGBoost without imputation had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve on internal validation (range of 0.93-0.98) and area under the precisionrecall curve (AUPRC; range of 0.78-0.82) for all time points. XGBoost without imputation also had the highest test parameters on external validation (AUROC range of 0.85-0.87, and AUPRC range of 0.27-0.54) across all time windows. XGBoost without imputation outperformed all models with higher precision and recall (mean difference in AUROC of 0.04; mean difference in AUPRC of 0.15). Features of creatinine, BUN, and red cell distribution width were major drivers of the model's prediction.
Conclusions
An XGBoost model without imputation for prediction of a composite outcome of either death or dialysis in patients positive for COVID-19 had the best performance, as compared with standard and other machine learning models.
Many prediction tasks can be done based on users’ trace data. In this paper, we explored convergent thinking as a personality-related attribute and its relation to features gathered in interactive and non-interactive tasks of an online course. This is an under-utilized attribute that could be used for adapting online courses according to the creativity level to enhance the motivation of learners. Therefore, we used the logfile data of a 60 minutes Moodle course with N=128 learners, combined with the Remote Associates Test (RAT). We explored the trace data and found a weak correlation between interactive tasks and the RAT score, which was the highest considering the overall dataset. We trained a Random Forest Regressor to predict convergent thinking based on the trace data and analyzed the feature importance. The result has shown that the interactive tasks have the highest importance in prediction, but the accuracy is very low. We discuss the potential for personalizing online courses and address further steps to improve the applicability.