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Current algorithms for the real-time prediction of the Kp index use a combination of models empirically driven by solar wind measurements at the L1 Lagrange point and historical values of the index. In this study, we explore the limitations of this approach, examining the forecast for short and long lead times using measurements at L1 and Kp time series as input to artificial neural networks. We explore the relative efficiency of the solar wind-based predictions, predictions based on recurrence, and predictions based on persistence. Our modeling results show that for short-term forecasts of approximately half a day, the addition of the historical values of Kp to the measured solar wind values provides a barely noticeable improvement. For a longer-term forecast of more than 2 days, predictions can be made using recurrence only, while solar wind measurements provide very little improvement for a forecast with long horizon times. We also examine predictions for disturbed and quiet geomagnetic activity conditions. Our results show that the paucity of historical measurements of the solar wind for high Kp results in a lower accuracy of predictions during disturbed conditions. Rebalancing of input data can help tailor the predictions for more disturbed conditions.
Many solar wind observations at 1 au indicate that the proton (as well as electron) temperature anisotropy is limited. The data distribution in the (A(a), beta(a),(parallel to))-plane have a rhombic-shaped form around beta(a),(parallel to) similar to 1. The boundaries of the temperature anisotropy at beta(a),(parallel to) > 1 can be well explained by the threshold conditions of the mirror (whistler) and oblique proton (electron) firehose instabilities in a bi-Maxwellian plasma, whereas the physical mechanism of the similar restriction at beta(a),(parallel to) < 1 is still under debate. One possible option is Coulomb collisions, which we revisit in the current work. We derive the relaxation rate nu(A)(aa) of the temperature anisotropy in a bi-Maxwellian plasma that we then study analytically and by observed proton data from WIND. We found that nu(A)(pp) increases toward small beta(p),(parallel to) < 1. We matched the data distribution in the (A(p), beta(p),(parallel to))-plane with the constant contour nu(A)(pp) = 2.8 . 10(-6) s(-1), corresponding to the minimum value for collisions to play a role. This contour fits rather well the left boundary of the rhombic-shaped data distribution in the (A(p), beta(p),(parallel to))-plane. Thus, Coulomb collisions are an interesting candidate for explaining the limitations of the temperature anisotropy in the solar wind with small beta(a),(parallel to) < 1 at 1 au.