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Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
§§ 327-327u
(2023)
Effect of magnesium salts with chaotropic anions on the swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films
(2023)
Poly(N-isopropylmethacrylamide) (PNIPMAM) is a stimuli responsive polymer, which in thin film geometry exhibits a volume-phase transition upon temperature increase in water vapor. The swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films containing magnesium salts in water vapor is investigated in view of their potential application as nanodevices. Both the extent and the kinetics of the swelling ratio as well as the water content are probed with in situ time-of-flight neutron reflectometry. Additionally, in situ Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy provides information about the local solvation of the specific functional groups, while two-dimensional FTIR correlation analysis further elucidates the temporal sequence of solvation events. The addition of Mg(ClO4)2 or Mg(NO3)2 enhances the sensitivity of the polymer and therefore the responsiveness of switches and sensors based on PNIPMAM thin films. It is found that Mg(NO3)2 leads to a higher relative water uptake and therefore achieves the highest thickness gain in the swollen state.
Thermal electrons have gyroradii many orders of magnitude smaller than the finite width of a shock, thus need to be pre-accelerated before they can cross it and be accelerated by diffusive shock acceleration. One region where pre-acceleration may occur is the inner foreshock, which upstream electrons must pass through before any potential downstream crossing. In this paper, we perform a large-scale particle-in-cell simulation that generates a single shock with parameters motivated from supernova remnants. Within the foreshock, reflected electrons excite the oblique whistler instability and produce electromagnetic whistler waves, which comove with the upstream flow and as nonlinear structures eventually reach radii of up to 5 ion-gyroradii. We show that the inner electromagnetic configuration of the whistlers evolves into complex nonlinear structures bound by a strong magnetic field around four times the upstream value. Although these nonlinear structures do not in general interact with cospatial upstream electrons, they resonate with electrons that have been reflected at the shock. We show that they can scatter, or even trap, reflected electrons, confining around 0.8% of the total upstream electron population to the region close to the shock where they can undergo substantial pre-acceleration. This acceleration process is similar to, yet approximately three times more efficient than, stochastic shock drift acceleration.
Analyzing social wrongs
(2023)
(Moralisch) guter Sex
(2023)
In einem kürzlich erschienenen Artikel argumentiert Almut v. Wedelstaedt überzeugend, warum Zustimmung zwar „die Bedingung für die Legitimation von Sex“ ist (2020, 127), dass die moralische Güte von Sex aber nur dann einzuschätzen ist, wenn wir darauf achten, ob die Beteiligten der Handlung sich auf Augenhöhe begegnen. Die Idee ist: Es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch gut sind, und es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch besser sind. Hier möchte ich die Idee des besseren Sexes genauer ausloten. Während v. Wedelstaedt von moralisch gelungenem Sex spricht und somit auf der Ebene der moralischen Bewertung von Sex bleibt, möchte ich die Frage danach stellen, was Sex qualitativ gut macht. Tatsächlich wird in der Zustimmungsdebatte meist davon ausgegangen, dass diese zwei Fragen wenig gemeinsam haben; ob eine sexuelle Handlung legitim ist, hat zunächst nichts damit zu tun, ob diese auch gut ist. Ich werde drei Argumente liefern, warum wir legitimen Sex und qualitativ guten Sex zusammen betrachten sollten – und es wird sich zeigen, dass die gegenwärtige philosophische und rechtstheoretische Debatte Zustimmung verkürzt diskutiert und daher alleingenommen wenig hilfreich ist, stattdessen benötigt die Zustimmungsdebatte auch eine Untersuchung von qualitativ gutem Sex.
Touching at a Distance
(2023)
Studies the capacity of Shakespeare’s plays to touch and think about touchBased on plays from all major genres: Hamlet, The Tempest, Richard III, Much Ado About Nothing and Troilus and CressidaCentres on creative, close readings of Shakespeare’s plays, which aim to generate critical impulses for the 21st century readerBrings Shakespeare Studies into touch with philosophers and theoreticians from a range of disciplinary areas – continental philosophy, literary criticism, psychoanalysis, sociology, phenomenology, law, linguistics: Friedrich Nietzsche, Maurice Blanchot, Jacques Lacan, Luce Irigaray, Jacques Derrida, Roland Barthes, Niklas Luhmann, Hans Blumenberg, Carl Schmitt, J. L. AustinTheatre has a remarkable capacity: it touches from a distance. The audience is affected, despite their physical separation from the stage. The spectators are moved, even though the fictional world presented to them will never come into direct touch with their real lives. Shakespeare is clearly one of the master practitioners of theatrical touch. As the study shows, his exceptional dramaturgic talent is intrinsically connected with being one of the great thinkers of touch. His plays fathom the complexity and power of a fascinating notion – touch as a productive proximity that is characterised by unbridgeable distance – which philosophers like Friedrich Nietzsche, Maurice Blanchot, Jacques Derrida, Luce Irigaray and Jean-Luc Nancy have written about, centuries later. By playing with touch and its metatheatrical implications, Shakespeare raises questions that make his theatrical art point towards modernity: how are communities to form when traditional institutions begin to crumble? What happens to selfhood when time speeds up, when oneness and timeless truth can no longer serve as reliable foundations? What is the role and the capacity of language in a world that has lost its seemingly unshakeable belief and trust in meaning? How are we to conceive of the unthinkable extremes of human existence – birth and death – when the religious orthodoxy slowly ceases to give satisfactory explanations? Shakespeare’s theatre not only prompts these questions, but provides us with answers. They are all related to touch, and they are all theatrical at their core: they are argued and performed by the striking experience of theatre’s capacities to touch – at a distance
Nicht erst seit Covid-19 sind die Wissens- und Kommunikationslücken sowie die Hierarchie zwischen Ärzt*innen und Patient*innen offensichtlich. Zusätzlich befinden sich kranke Menschen sowohl aufgrund ihrer Krankheit als auch aufgrund ihrer Abhängigkeit vom Gesundheitswesen in einer besonders verletzlichen Lage; Patient*innen sind ein paradigmatisches Beispiel für fragile epistemische Subjekte. Im vorliegenden Text wird zunächst skizziert inwieweit Patient*innen fragile epistemische Subjekte sind und welche Formen testimonialer und hermeneutischer Ungerechtigkeit im Gesundheitswesen besonders zum Tragen kommen. Danach wird ein besonderes Augenmerk auf die Idee gelegt, dass sogenannte „pathozentrische epistemische Ungerechtigkeiten“ durch bestimmte theoretische Vorstellungen von Gesundheit untermauert und reproduziert werden. Hierbei soll schlussendlich untersucht werden, inwieweit dieses Problem durch technische Mittel in der Medizin verstärkt oder geschwächt werden kann; so reproduzieren Algorithmen beispielsweise die vorhandenen Vorstellungen und Praktiken.