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Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.
Numerous studies investigate which sanctioning institutions prevent cartel formation but little is known as to how these sanctions work. We contribute to understanding the inner workings of cartels by studying experimentally the effect of sanctioning institutions on firms’ communication. Using machine learning to organize the chat communication into topics, we find that firms are significantly less likely to communicate explicitly about price fixing when sanctioning institutions are present. At the same time, average prices are lower when communication is less explicit. A mediation analysis suggests that sanctions are effective in hindering cartel formation not only because they introduce a risk of being fined but also by reducing the prevalence of explicit price communication.
Reflecting in written form on one's teaching enactments has been considered a facilitator for teachers' professional growth in university-based preservice teacher education. Writing a structured reflection can be facilitated through external feedback. However, researchers noted that feedback in preservice teacher education often relies on holistic, rather than more content-based, analytic feedback because educators oftentimes lack resources (e.g., time) to provide more analytic feedback. To overcome this impediment to feedback for written reflection, advances in computer technology can be of use. Hence, this study sought to utilize techniques of natural language processing and machine learning to train a computer-based classifier that classifies preservice physics teachers' written reflections on their teaching enactments in a German university teacher education program. To do so, a reflection model was adapted to physics education. It was then tested to what extent the computer-based classifier could accurately classify the elements of the reflection model in segments of preservice physics teachers' written reflections. Multinomial logistic regression using word count as a predictor was found to yield acceptable average human-computer agreement (F1-score on held-out test dataset of 0.56) so that it might fuel further development towards an automated feedback tool that supplements existing holistic feedback for written reflections with data-based, analytic feedback.
There is no consensus on which statistical model estimates school value-added (VA) most accurately. To date, the two most common statistical models used for the calculation of VA scores are two classical methods: linear regression and multilevel models. These models have the advantage of being relatively transparent and thus understandable for most researchers and practitioners. However, these statistical models are bound to certain assumptions (e.g., linearity) that might limit their prediction accuracy. Machine learning methods, which have yielded spectacular results in numerous fields, may be a valuable alternative to these classical models. Although big data is not new in general, it is relatively new in the realm of social sciences and education. New types of data require new data analytical approaches. Such techniques have already evolved in fields with a long tradition in crunching big data (e.g., gene technology). The objective of the present paper is to competently apply these "imported" techniques to education data, more precisely VA scores, and assess when and how they can extend or replace the classical psychometrics toolbox. The different models include linear and non-linear methods and extend classical models with the most commonly used machine learning methods (i.e., random forest, neural networks, support vector machines, and boosting). We used representative data of 3,026 students in 153 schools who took part in the standardized achievement tests of the Luxembourg School Monitoring Program in grades 1 and 3. Multilevel models outperformed classical linear and polynomial regressions, as well as different machine learning models. However, it could be observed that across all schools, school VA scores from different model types correlated highly. Yet, the percentage of disagreements as compared to multilevel models was not trivial and real-life implications for individual schools may still be dramatic depending on the model type used. Implications of these results and possible ethical concerns regarding the use of machine learning methods for decision-making in education are discussed.
Successfully completing any data science project demands careful consideration across its whole process. Although the focus is often put on later phases of the process, in practice, experts spend more time in earlier phases, preparing data, to make them consistent with the systems' requirements or to improve their models' accuracies. Duplicate detection is typically applied during the data cleaning phase, which is dedicated to removing data inconsistencies and improving the overall quality and usability of data. While data cleaning involves a plethora of approaches to perform specific operations, such as schema alignment and data normalization, the task of detecting and removing duplicate records is particularly challenging. Duplicates arise when multiple records representing the same entities exist in a database. Due to numerous reasons, spanning from simple typographical errors to different schemas and formats of integrated databases. Keeping a database free of duplicates is crucial for most use-cases, as their existence causes false negatives and false positives when matching queries against it. These two data quality issues have negative implications for tasks, such as hotel booking, where users may erroneously select a wrong hotel, or parcel delivery, where a parcel can get delivered to the wrong address. Identifying the variety of possible data issues to eliminate duplicates demands sophisticated approaches.
While research in duplicate detection is well-established and covers different aspects of both efficiency and effectiveness, our work in this thesis focuses on the latter. We propose novel approaches to improve data quality before duplicate detection takes place and apply the latter in datasets even when prior labeling is not available. Our experiments show that improving data quality upfront can increase duplicate classification results by up to 19%. To this end, we propose two novel pipelines that select and apply generic as well as address-specific data preparation steps with the purpose of maximizing the success of duplicate detection. Generic data preparation, such as the removal of special characters, can be applied to any relation with alphanumeric attributes. When applied, data preparation steps are selected only for attributes where there are positive effects on pair similarities, which indirectly affect classification, or on classification directly. Our work on addresses is twofold; first, we consider more domain-specific approaches to improve the quality of values, and, second, we experiment with known and modified versions of similarity measures to select the most appropriate per address attribute, e.g., city or country.
To facilitate duplicate detection in applications where gold standard annotations are not available and obtaining them is not possible or too expensive, we propose MDedup. MDedup is a novel, rule-based, and fully automatic duplicate detection approach that is based on matching dependencies. These dependencies can be used to detect duplicates and can be discovered using state-of-the-art algorithms efficiently and without any prior labeling. MDedup uses two pipelines to first train on datasets with known labels, learning to identify useful matching dependencies, and then be applied on unseen datasets, regardless of any existing gold standard. Finally, our work is accompanied by open source code to enable repeatability of our research results and application of our approaches to other datasets.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing fundamentally the way how IT solutions are implemented and operated across all application domains, including the geospatial domain. This contribution outlines AI-based techniques for 3D point clouds and geospatial digital twins as generic components of geospatial AI. First, we briefly reflect on the term "AI" and outline technology developments needed to apply AI to IT solutions, seen from a software engineering perspective. Next, we characterize 3D point clouds as key category of geodata and their role for creating the basis for geospatial digital twins; we explain the feasibility of machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) approaches for 3D point clouds. In particular, we argue that 3D point clouds can be seen as a corpus with similar properties as natural language corpora and formulate a "Naturalness Hypothesis" for 3D point clouds. In the main part, we introduce a workflow for interpreting 3D point clouds based on ML/DL approaches that derive domain-specific and application-specific semantics for 3D point clouds without having to create explicit spatial 3D models or explicit rule sets. Finally, examples are shown how ML/DL enables us to efficiently build and maintain base data for geospatial digital twins such as virtual 3D city models, indoor models, or building information models.
The “HPI Future SOC Lab” is a cooperation of the Hasso Plattner Institute (HPI) and industry partners. Its mission is to enable and promote exchange and interaction between the research community and the industry partners.
The HPI Future SOC Lab provides researchers with free of charge access to a complete infrastructure of state of the art hard and software. This infrastructure includes components, which might be too expensive for an ordinary research environment, such as servers with up to 64 cores and 2 TB main memory. The offerings address researchers particularly from but not limited to the areas of computer science and business information systems. Main areas of research include cloud computing, parallelization, and In-Memory technologies.
This technical report presents results of research projects executed in 2017. Selected projects have presented their results on April 25th and November 15th 2017 at the Future SOC Lab Day events.
Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk. However, in current procedures this is accompanied by simplifying assumptions. Risk assessments are therefore fuzzy and associated with uncertainties.
This thesis investigates the benefits and possibilities of new data sources for improving flood risk assessment. New methods and models are developed, which take the mentioned interrelations better into account and also quantify the existing uncertainties of the model results, and thus enable statements about the reliability of risk estimates. For this purpose, data on flood events from various sources are collected and evaluated. This includes precipitation and flow records at measuring stations as well as for instance images from social media, which can help to delineate the flooded areas and estimate flood damage with location information. Machine learning methods have been successfully used to recognize and understand correlations between floods and impacts from a wide range of data and to develop improved models.
Risk models help to develop and evaluate strategies to reduce flood risk. These tools also provide advanced insights into the interplay of various factors and on the expected consequences of flooding. This work shows progress in terms of an improved assessment of flood risks by using diverse data from different sources with innovative methods as well as by the further development of models. Flood risk is variable due to economic and climatic changes, and other drivers of risk. In order to keep the knowledge about flood risks up-to-date, robust, efficient and adaptable methods as proposed in this thesis are of increasing importance.