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The paper presents a simulation and parameter-estimation approach for evaluating stochastic patterns of population growth and spread of an annual forest herb, Melampyrum pratense (Orobanchaceae). The survival of a species during large-scale changes in land use and climate will depend, to a considerable extent, on its dispersal and colonisation abilities. Predictions on species migration need a combination of field studies and modelling efforts. Our study on the ability of M. pratense to disperse into so far unoccupied areas was based on experiments in secondary woodland in NE Germany. Experiments started in 1997 at three sites where the species was not yet present, with 300 seeds sown within one square meter. Population development was then recorded until 2001 by mapping of individuals with a resolution of 5 cm. Additional observations considered density dependence of seed production. We designed a spatially explicit individual-based computer simulation model to explain the spatial patterns of population development and to predict future population spread. Besides primary drop of seeds (barochory) it assumed secondary seed transport by ants (myrmecochory) with an exponentially decreasing dispersal tail. An important feature of populationpattern explanation was the simultaneous estimation of both population-growth and dispersal parameters from consistent spatio-temporal data sets. As the simulation model produced stochastic time series and random spatially discrete distributions of individuals we estimated parameters by minimising the expectation of weighted sums of squares. These sums-ofsquares criteria considered population sizes, radial population distributions around the area of origin and distributions of individuals within squares of 25*25 cm, the range of density action. Optimal parameter values, together with the precision of the estimates, were obtained from calculating sums of squares in regular grids of parameter values. Our modelling results showed that transport of fractions of seeds by ants over distances of 1…2 m was indispensable for explaining the observed population spread that led to distances of at most 8 m from population origin within 3 years. Projections of population development over 4 additional years gave a diffusion-like increase of population area without any “outposts”. This prediction generated by the simulation model gave a hypothesis which should be revised by additional field observations. Some structural deviations between observations and model output already indicated that for full understanding of population spread the set of dispersal mechanisms assumed in the model may have to be extended by additional features of plant-animal mutualism.
The factors that determine the efficiency of energy transfer in aquatic food webs have been investigated for many decades. The plant-animal interface is the most variable and least predictable of all levels in the food web. In order to study determinants of food quality in a large lake and to test the recently proposed central importance of the long-chained eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) at the pelagic producer-grazer interface, we tested the importance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) at the pelagic producerconsumer interface by correlating sestonic food parameters with somatic growth rates of a clone of Daphnia galeata. Daphnia growth rates were obtained from standardized laboratory experiments spanning one season with Daphnia feeding on natural seston from Lake Constance, a large pre-alpine lake. Somatic growth rates were fitted to sestonic parameters by using a saturation function. A moderate amount of variation was explained when the model included the elemental parameters carbon (r2 = 0.6) and nitrogen (r2 = 0.71). A tighter fit was obtained when sestonic phosphorus was incorporated (r2 = 0.86). The nonlinear regression with EPA was relatively weak (r2 = 0.77), whereas the highest degree of variance was explained by three C18-PUFAs. The best (r2 = 0.95), and only significant, correlation of Daphnia's growth was found with the C18-PUFA α-linolenic acid (α-LA; C18:3n-3). This correlation was weakest in late August when C:P values increased to 300, suggesting that mineral and PUFA-limitation of Daphnia's growth changed seasonally. Sestonic phosphorus and some PUFAs showed not only tight correlations with growth, but also with sestonic α-LA content. We computed Monte Carlo simulations to test whether the observed effects of α-LA on growth could be accounted for by EPA, phosphorus, or one of the two C18-PUFAs, stearidonic acid (C18:4n-3) and linoleic acid (C18:2n-6). With >99 % probability, the correlation of growth with α-LA could not be explained by any of these parameters. In order to test for EPA limitation of Daphnia's growth, in parallel with experiments on pure seston, growth was determined on seston supplemented with chemostat-grown, P-limited Stephanodiscus hantzschii, which is rich in EPA. Although supplementation increased the EPA content 80-800x, no significant changes in the nonlinear regression of the growth rates with α-LA were found, indicating that growth of Daphnia on pure seston was not EPA limited. This indicates that the two fatty acids, EPA and α-LA, were not mutually substitutable biochemical resources and points to different physiological functions of these two PUFAs. These results support the PUFA-limitation hypothesis for sestonic C:P < 300 but are contrary to the hypothesis of a general importance of EPA, since no evidence for EPA limitation was found. It is suggested that the resource ratios of EPA and α-LA rather than the absolute concentrations determine which of the two resources is limiting growth.
Significant seasonal variation in size at settlement has been observed in newly settled larvae of Dreissena polymorpha in Lake Constance. Diet quality, which varies temporally and spatially in freshwater habitats, has been suggested as a significant factor influencing life history and development of freshwater invertebrates. Accordingly, experiments were conducted with field-collected larvae to test the hypothesis that diet quality can determine planktonic larval growth rates, size at settlement and subsequent post-metamorphic growth rates. Larvae were fed one of two diets or starved. One diet was composed of cyanobacterial cells which are deficient in polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), and the other was a mixed diet rich in PUFAs. Freshly metamorphosed animals from the starvation treatment had a carbon content per individual 70% lower than that of larvae fed the mixed diet. This apparent exhaustion of larval internal reserves resulted in a 50% reduction of the postmetamorphic growth rates. Growth was also reduced in animals previously fed the cyanobacterial diet. Hence, low food quantity or low food quality during the larval stage of D. polymorpha lead to irreversible effects for postmetamorphic animals, and is related to inferior competitive abilities.
Background: Local adaptation to divergent environmental conditions can promote population genetic differentiation even in the absence of geographic barriers and hence, lead to speciation. Perturbations by catastrophic events, however, can distort such parapatric ecological speciation processes. Here, we asked whether an exceptionally strong flood led to homogenization of gene pools among locally adapted populations of the Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae) in the Cueva del Azufre system in southern Mexico, where two strong environmental selection factors (darkness within caves and/or presence of toxic H2S in sulfidic springs) drive the diversification of P. mexicana. Nine nuclear microsatellites as well as heritable female life history traits (both as a proxy for quantitative genetics and for trait divergence) were used as markers to compare genetic differentiation, genetic diversity, and especially population mixing (immigration and emigration) before and after the flood. Results: Habitat type (i.e., non-sulfidic surface, sulfidic surface, or sulfidic cave), but not geographic distance was the major predictor of genetic differentiation. Before and after the flood, each habitat type harbored a genetically distinct population. Only a weak signal of individual dislocation among ecologically divergent habitat types was uncovered (with the exception of slightly increased dislocation from the Cueva del Azufre into the sulfidic creek, El Azufre). By contrast, several lines of evidence are indicative of increased flood-induced dislocation within the same habitat type, e.g., between different cave chambers of the Cueva del Azufre. Conclusions: The virtual absence of individual dislocation among ecologically different habitat types indicates strong natural selection against migrants. Thus, our current study exemplifies that ecological speciation in this and other systems, in which extreme environmental factors drive speciation, may be little affected by temporary perturbations, as adaptations to physico-chemical stressors may directly affect the survival probability in divergent habitat types.
Variation in nitrogen deposition and available soil nitrogen in a forest–grassland ecotone in Canada
(2004)
Regional variation in nitrogen (N) deposition increases plant productivity and decreases species diversity, but landscape- or local-scale influences on N deposition are less well-known. Using ion-exchange resin, we measured variation of N deposition and soil N availability within Elk Island National Park in the ecotone between grassland and boreal forest in western Canada. The park receives regionally high amounts of atmospheric N deposition (22 kg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹). N deposition was on average higher ton clayrich luvisols than on brunisols, and areas burned 1 – 15 years previously received more atmospheric N than unburned sites. We suggest that the effects of previous fires and soil type on deposition rate act through differences in canopy structure. The magnitude of these effects varied with the presence of ungulate grazers (bison, moose, elk) and vegetation type (forest, shrubland, grassland). Available soil N (ammonium and nitrate) was higher in burned than unburned sites in the absence of grazing, suggesting an effect of deposition. On grazed sites, differences between fire treatments were small, presumably because the removal of biomass by grazers reduced the effect of fire. Aspen invades native grassland in this region, and our results suggest that fire without grazing might reinforce the expansion of forest into grassland facilitated by N deposition.
Germination rates and germination fractions of seeds can be predicted well by the hydrothermal time (HTT) model. Its four parameters hydrothermal time, minimum soil temperature, minimum soil moisture, and variation of minimum soil moisture, however, must be determined by lengthy germination experiments at combinations of several levels of soil temperature and moisture. For some applications of the HTT model it is more important to have approximate estimates for many species rather than exact values for only a few species. We suggest that minimum temperature and variation of minimum moisture can be estimated from literature data and expert knowledge. This allows to derive hydrothermal time and minimum moisture from existing data from germination experiments with one level of temperature and moisture. We applied our approach to a germination experiment comparing germination fractions of wild annual species along an aridity gradient in Israel. Using this simplified approach we estimated hydrothermal time and minimum moisture of 36 species. Comparison with exact data for three species shows that our method is a simple but effective method for obtaining parameters for the HTT model. Hydrothermal time and minimum moisture supposedly indicate climate related germination strategies. We tested whether these two parameters varied with the climate at the site where the seeds had been collected. We found no consistent variation with climate across species, suggesting that variation is more strongly controlled by site-specific factors.
Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.
The effect of moderate rates of nitrogen deposition on ground floor vegetation is poorly predicted by uncontrolled surveys or fertilization experiments using high rates of nitrogen (N) addition. We compared the temporal trends of ground floor vegetation in permanent plots with moderate (7–13 kg ha−1 year−1) and lower bulk N deposition (4–6 kg ha−1 year−1) in southern Sweden during 1982–1998. We examined whether trends differed between growth forms (vascular plants and bryophytes) and vegetation types (three types of coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and bog). Trends of site-standardized cover and richness varied among growth forms, vegetation types, and deposition regions. Cover in spruce forests decreased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs cover decreased faster with low deposition. Cover of bryophytes in spruce forests increased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs and deciduous forests there was a strong non-linear increase with moderate deposition. The trend of number of vascular plants was constant with moderate and decreased with low deposition. We found no trend in the number of bryophyte species. We propose that the decrease of cover and number with low deposition was related to normal ecosystem development (increased shading), suggesting that N deposition maintained or increased the competitiveness of some species in the moderate-deposition region. Deposition had no consistent negative effect on vegetation suggesting that it is less important than normal successional processes.
Global Circulation Models of climate predict not only a change of annual precipitation amounts but also a shift in the daily distribution. To improve the understanding of the importance of daily rain pattern for annual plant communities, which represent a large portion of semi-natural vegetation in the Middle East, I used a detailed, spatially explicit model. The model explicitly considers water storage in the soil and has been parameterized and validated with data collected in field experiments in Israel and data from the literature. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by increasing the mean daily rain intensity on rainy days (MDI, rain volume/day) and decreasing intervals between rainy days while keeping the mean annual amount constant. In factorial combination, I also increased mean annual precipitation (MAP). I considered five climatic regions characterized by 100, 300, 450, 600, and 800 mm MAP. Increasing MDI decreased establishment when MAP was >250 mm but increased establishment at more arid sites. The negative effect of increasing MDI was compensated by increasing mortality with increasing MDI in dry and typical Mediterranean regions (c. 360–720 mm MAP). These effects were strongly tied to water availability in upper and lower soil layers and modified by competition among seedlings and adults. Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and density. The order of magnitudes of MDI and MAP effects overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate change effects on annual vegetation. The effect size of MAP and MDI followed a sigmoid curve along the MAP gradient indicating that the semi-arid region (≈300 mm MAP) is the most sensitive to precipitation change with regard to annual communitie
This contribution describes a generator of stochastic time series of daily precipitation for the interior of Israel from c. 90 to 900 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP) as a tool for studies of daily rain variability. The probability of rainfall on a given day of the year is described by a regular Gaussian peak curve function. The amount of rain is drawn randomly from an exponential distribution whose mean is the daily mean rain amount (averaged across years for each day of the year) described by a flattened Gaussian peak curve. Parameters for the curves have been calculated from monthly aggregated, long-term rain records from seven meteorological stations. Parameters for arbitrary points on the MAP gradient are calculated from a regression equation with MAP as the only independent variable. The simple structure of the generator allows it to produce time series with daily rain patterns that are projected under climate change scenarios and simultaneously control MAP. Increasing within-year variability of daily precipitation amounts also increases among-year variability of MAP as predicted by global circulation models. Thus, the time series incorporate important characteristics for climate change research and represent a flexible tool for simulations of daily vegetation or surface hydrology dynamics.