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The IGRF offers an important incentive for testing algorithms predicting the Earth's magnetic field changes, known as secular variation (SV), in a 5-year range. Here, we present a SV candidate model for the 13th IGRF that stems from a sequential ensemble data assimilation approach (EnKF). The ensemble consists of a number of parallel-running 3D-dynamo simulations. The assimilated data are geomagnetic field snapshots covering the years 1840 to 2000 from the COV-OBS.x1 model and for 2001 to 2020 from the Kalmag model. A spectral covariance localization method, considering the couplings between spherical harmonics of the same equatorial symmetry and same azimuthal wave number, allows decreasing the ensemble size to about a 100 while maintaining the stability of the assimilation. The quality of 5-year predictions is tested for the past two decades. These tests show that the assimilation scheme is able to reconstruct the overall SV evolution. They also suggest that a better 5-year forecast is obtained keeping the SV constant compared to the dynamically evolving SV. However, the quality of the dynamical forecast steadily improves over the full assimilation window (180 years). We therefore propose the instantaneous SV estimate for 2020 from our assimilation as a candidate model for the IGRF-13. The ensemble approach provides uncertainty estimates, which closely match the residual differences with respect to the IGRF-13. Longer term predictions for the evolution of the main magnetic field features over a 50-year range are also presented. We observe the further decrease of the axial dipole at a mean rate of 8 nT/year as well as a deepening and broadening of the South Atlantic Anomaly. The magnetic dip poles are seen to approach an eccentric dipole configuration.
We study properties of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) eigenmodes by decomposing the data of MHD simulations into linear MHD modes-namely, the Alfven, slow magnetosonic, and fast magnetosonic modes. We drive turbulence with a mixture of solenoidal and compressive driving while varying the Alfven Mach number (M-A), plasma beta, and the sonic Mach number from subsonic to transsonic. We find that the proportion of fast and slow modes in the mode mixture increases with increasing compressive forcing. This proportion of the magnetosonic modes can also become the dominant fraction in the mode mixture. The anisotropy of the modes is analyzed by means of their structure functions. The Alfven-mode anisotropy is consistent with the Goldreich-Sridhar theory. We find a transition from weak to strong Alfvenic turbulence as we go from low to high M-A. The slow-mode properties are similar to the Alfven mode. On the other hand, the isotropic nature of fast modes is verified in the cases where the fast mode is a significant fraction of the mode mixture. The fast-mode behavior does not show any transition in going from low to high M-A. We find indications that there is some interaction between the different modes, and the properties of the dominant mode can affect the properties of the weaker modes. This work identifies the conditions under which magnetosonic modes can be a major fraction of turbulent astrophysical plasmas, including the regime of weak turbulence. Important astrophysical implications for cosmic-ray transport and magnetic reconnection are discussed.