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Changing climatic conditions and unsustainable land use are major threats to savannas worldwide. Historically, many African savannas were used intensively for livestock grazing, which contributed to widespread patterns of bush encroachment across savanna systems. To reverse bush encroachment, it has been proposed to change the cattle-dominated land use to one dominated by comparatively specialized browsers and usually native herbivores. However, the consequences for ecosystem properties and processes remain largely unclear. We used the ecohydrological, spatially explicit model EcoHyD to assess the impacts of two contrasting, herbivore land-use strategies on a Namibian savanna: grazer- versus browser-dominated herbivore communities. We varied the densities of grazers and browsers and determined the resulting composition and diversity of the plant community, total vegetation cover, soil moisture, and water use by plants. Our results showed that plant types that are less palatable to herbivores were best adapted to grazing or browsing animals in all simulated densities. Also, plant types that had a competitive advantage under limited water availability were among the dominant ones irrespective of land-use scenario. Overall, the results were in line with our expectations: under high grazer densities, we found heavy bush encroachment and the loss of the perennial grass matrix. Importantly, regardless of the density of browsers, grass cover and plant functional diversity were significantly higher in browsing scenarios. Browsing herbivores increased grass cover, and the higher total cover in turn improved water uptake by plants overall. We concluded that, in contrast to grazing-dominated land-use strategies, land-use strategies dominated by browsing herbivores, even at high herbivore densities, sustain diverse vegetation communities with high cover of perennial grasses, resulting in lower erosion risk and bolstering ecosystem services.
In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.
Coastal areas are particularly sensitive because they are complex, and related land use conflicts are more intense than those in noncoastal areas. In addition to representing a unique encounter of natural and socioeconomic factors, coastal areas have become paradigms of progressive urbanisation and economic development. Our study of the infrastructural mega project of Patimban Seaport in Indonesia explores the factors driving land use changes and the subsequent land use conflicts emerging from large-scale land transformation in the course of seaport development and mega project governance. We utilised interviews and questionnaires to investigate institutional aspects and conflict drivers. Specifically, we retrace and investigate the mechanisms guiding how mega project governance, land use planning, and actual land use interact. Therefore, we observe and analyse where land use conflicts emerge and the roles that a lack of stakeholder interest involvement and tenure-responsive planning take in this process. Our findings reflect how mismanagement and inadequate planning processes lead to market failure, land abandonment and dereliction and how they overburden local communities with the costs of mega projects. Enforcing a stronger coherence between land use planning, participation and land tenure within the land governance process in coastal land use development at all levels and raising the capacity of stakeholders to interfere with governance and planning processes will reduce conflicts and lead to sustainable coastal development in Indonesia.
The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure.
The global climate crisis is significantly contributing to changing ecosystems, loss of biodiversity and is putting numerous species on the verge of extinction. In principle, many species are able to adapt to changing conditions or shift their habitats to more suitable regions. However, change is progressing faster than some species can adjust, or potential adaptation is blocked and disrupted by direct and indirect human action. Unsustainable anthropogenic land use in particular is one of the driving factors, besides global heating, for these ecologically critical developments. Precisely because land use is anthropogenic, it is also a factor that could be quickly and immediately corrected by human action.
In this thesis, I therefore assess the impact of three climate change scenarios of increasing intensity in combination with differently scheduled mowing regimes on the long-term development and dispersal success of insects in Northwest German grasslands. The large marsh grasshopper (LMG, Stethophyma grossum, Linné 1758) is used as a species of reference for the analyses. It inhabits wet meadows and marshes and has a limited, yet fairly good ability to disperse. Mowing and climate conditions affect the development and mortality of the LMG differently depending on its life stage.
The specifically developed simulation model HiLEG (High-resolution Large Environmental
Gradient) serves as a tool for investigating and projecting viability and dispersal success under different climate conditions and land use scenarios. It is a spatially explicit, stage- and cohort-based model that can be individually configured to represent the life cycle and characteristics of terrestrial insect species, as well as high-resolution environmental data and the occurrence of external disturbances. HiLEG is a freely available and adjustable software that can be used to support conservation planning in cultivated grasslands.
In the three case studies of this thesis, I explore various aspects related to the structure of simulation models per se, their importance in conservation planning in general, and insights regarding the LMG in particular. It became apparent that the detailed resolution of model processes and components is crucial to project the long-term effect of spatially and temporally confined events. Taking into account conservation measures at the regional level has further proven relevant, especially in light of the climate crisis. I found that the LMG is benefiting from global warming in principle, but continues to be constrained by harmful mowing regimes. Land use measures could, however, be adapted in such a way that they allow the expansion and establishment of the LMG without overly affecting agricultural yields.
Overall, simulation models like HiLEG can make an important contribution and add value
to conservation planning and policy-making. Properly used, simulation results shed light
on aspects that might be overlooked by subjective judgment and the experience of individual stakeholders. Even though it is in the nature of models that they are subject to limitations and only represent fragments of reality, this should not keep stakeholders from using them, as long as these limitations are clearly communicated. Similar to HiLEG, models could further be designed in such a way that not only the parameterization can be adjusted as required, but also the implementation itself can be improved and changed as desired. This openness and flexibility should become more widespread in the development of simulation models.
Bryophytes constitute an important and permanent component of the grassland flora and diversity in Europe. As most bryophyte species are sensitive to habitat change, their diversity is likely to decline following land-use intensification. Most previous studies on bryophyte diversity focused on specific habitats of high bryophyte diversity, such as bogs, montane grasslands, or calcareous dry grasslands. In contrast, mesic grasslands are rarely studied, although they are the most common grassland habitat in Europe. They are secondary vegetation, maintained by agricultural use and thus, are influenced by different forms of land use. We studied bryophyte species richness in three regions in Germany, in 707 plots of 16 m(2) representing different land-use types and environmental conditions. Our study is one of the few to inspect the relationships between bryophyte richness and land use across contrasting regions and using a high number of replicates. Among the managed grasslands, pastures harboured 2.5 times more bryophyte species than meadows and mown pastures. Similarly, bryophyte cover was about twice as high in fallows and pastures than in meadows and mown pastures. Among the pastures, bryophyte species richness was about three times higher in sheep grazed plots than in the ones grazed by cattle or horses. In general, bryophyte species richness and cover was more than 50% lower in fertilized than in unfertilized plots. Moreover, the amount of suitable substrates was linked to bryophyte diversity. Species richness of bryophytes growing on stones increased with stone cover, and the one of bryophytes growing on bark and deadwood increased with larger values of woody plant species and deadwood cover. Our findings highlight the importance of low-intensity land use and high structural heterogeneity for bryophyte conservation. They also caution against an intensification of traditionally managed pastures. In the light of our results, we recommend to maintain low-intensity sheep grazing on sites with low productivity, such as slopes on shallow soils.
Floodplains are threatened ecosystems and are not only ecologically meaningful but also important for humans by creating multiple benefits. Many underlying functions, like nutrient retention, carbon sequestration or water regulation, strongly depend on regular inundation. So far, these are approached on the basis of what are called ‘active floodplains’. Active floodplains, defined as statistically inundated once every 100 years, represent less than 10% of a floodplain’s original size. Still, should this remaining area be considered as one homogenous surface in terms of floodplain function, or are there any alternative approaches to quantify ecologically active floodplains? With the European Flood Hazard Maps, the extent of not only medium floods (T-medium) but also frequent floods (T-frequent) needs to be modelled by all member states of the European Union. For large German rivers, both scenarios were compared to quantify the extent, as well as selected indicators for naturalness derived from inundation. It is assumed that the more naturalness there is, the more inundation and the better the functioning. Real inundation was quantified using measured discharges from relevant gauges over the past 20 years. As a result, land uses indicating strong human impacts changed significantly from T-frequent to T-medium floodplains. Furthermore, the extent, water depth and water volume stored in the T-frequent and T-medium floodplains is significantly different. Even T-frequent floodplains experienced inundation for only half of the considered gauges during the past 20 years. This study gives evidence for considering regulation functions on the basis of ecologically active floodplains, meaning in floodplains with more frequent inundation that T-medium floodplains delineate.
Floodplains are threatened ecosystems and are not only ecologically meaningful but also important for humans by creating multiple benefits. Many underlying functions, like nutrient retention, carbon sequestration or water regulation, strongly depend on regular inundation. So far, these are approached on the basis of what are called ‘active floodplains’. Active floodplains, defined as statistically inundated once every 100 years, represent less than 10% of a floodplain’s original size. Still, should this remaining area be considered as one homogenous surface in terms of floodplain function, or are there any alternative approaches to quantify ecologically active floodplains? With the European Flood Hazard Maps, the extent of not only medium floods (T-medium) but also frequent floods (T-frequent) needs to be modelled by all member states of the European Union. For large German rivers, both scenarios were compared to quantify the extent, as well as selected indicators for naturalness derived from inundation. It is assumed that the more naturalness there is, the more inundation and the better the functioning. Real inundation was quantified using measured discharges from relevant gauges over the past 20 years. As a result, land uses indicating strong human impacts changed significantly from T-frequent to T-medium floodplains. Furthermore, the extent, water depth and water volume stored in the T-frequent and T-medium floodplains is significantly different. Even T-frequent floodplains experienced inundation for only half of the considered gauges during the past 20 years. This study gives evidence for considering regulation functions on the basis of ecologically active floodplains, meaning in floodplains with more frequent inundation that T-medium floodplains delineate.
Fire and grazing shape biodiversity in savannah landscapes. In land use management, knowing the effects of fire and grazing on biodiversity are important in order to ensure environmental sustainability. Beetles specifically are indicators of the biodiversity response to fire and grazing. A grazing exclusion and burning experiment in a split-plot design was used in order to investigate the interacting effects of fire and wildlife grazing on biomass, diversity, and species composition of darkling beetles (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae) over time after fire. Darkling beetle species richness and diversity were responding in a three-way-interaction to fire, grazing, and time after fire, whereby biomass of darkling beetles remained unaffected and species compositional changes were attributed to seasonal changes of time only. Fire on ungrazed plots had a negative effect on species diversity and richness 2 weeks and 6 months post fire, whereas fire on grazed plots had no impact on species diversity and richness. Grazing only lowered species diversity and richness 6 months after fire treatments. Results suggest that grazing overrides the effects of fire and that the similar effects caused by fire and grazing are due to niche and assemblage simplification of the habitat.
Bryophytes constitute an important and permanent component of the grassland flora and diversity in Europe. As most bryophyte species are sensitive to habitat change, their diversity is likely to decline following land-use intensification. Most previous studies on bryophyte diversity focused on specific habitats of high bryophyte diversity, such as bogs, montane grasslands, or calcareous dry grasslands. In contrast, mesic grasslands are rarely studied, although they are the most common grassland habitat in Europe. They are secondary vegetation, maintained by agricultural use and thus, are influenced by different forms of land use. We studied bryophyte species richness in three regions in Germany, in 707 plots of 16 m2 representing different land-use types and environmental conditions. Our study is one of the few to inspect the relationships between bryophyte richness and land use across contrasting regions and using a high number of replicates.Among the managed grasslands, pastures harboured 2.5 times more bryophyte species than mead-ows and mown pastures. Similarly, bryophyte cover was about twice as high in fallows and pastures than in meadows and mown pastures. Among the pastures, bryophyte species richness was about three times higher in sheep grazed plots than in the ones grazed by cattle or horses. In general, bryophyte species richness and cover was more than 50% lower in fertilized than in unfertilized plots. Moreover, the amount of suitable substrates was linked to bryophyte diversity. Species richness of bryophytes growing on stones increased with stone cover, and the one of bryophytes growing on bark and deadwood increased with larger values of woody plant species and deadwood cover. Our findings highlight the importance of low-intensity land use and high structural heterogeneity for bryophyte conservation. They also caution against an intensification of traditionally managed pastures. In the light of our results, we recommend to maintain low-intensity sheep grazing on sites with low productivity, such as slopes on shallow soils.