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Annual plants under cyclic disturbance regime : better understanding through model aggregation
(2008)
In their application for conservation ecology, 'classical' analytical models and individual-based simulation models (IBMs) both entail their specific strengths and weaknesses, either in providing a detailed and realistic representation of processes or in regard to a comprehensive model analysis. This well-known dilemma may be resolved by the combination of both approaches when tackling certain problems of conservation ecology. Following this idea, we present the complementary use of both an IBM and a matrix population model in a case study on grassland conservation management. First, we develop a spatially explicit IBM to simulate the long-term response of the annual plant Thlaspi perfoliatum (Brassicaceae), claspleaf pennycress, to different management schemes (annual mowing vs. infrequent rototilling) based on field experiments. In order to complement the simulation results by further analyses, we aggregate the IBM to a spatially nonexplicit deterministic matrix population model. Within the periodic environment created by management regimes, population dynamics are described by periodic products of annual transition matrices. Such periodic matrix products provide a very conclusive framework to study the responses of species to different management return intervals. Thus, using tools of matrix model analysis (e.g., loop analysis), we can both identify dormancy within the age-structured seed bank as the pivotal strategy for persistence under cyclic disturbance regimes and reveal crucial thresholds in some less certain parameters. Results of matrix model analyses are therefore successfully tested by comparing their results to the respective IBM simulations. Their implications for an enhanced scientific basis for management decisions are discussed as well as some general benefits and limitations of the use of aggregating modeling approaches in conservation.
* 1. Large female insects usually have high potential fecundity. Therefore selection should favour an increase in body size given that these females get opportunities to realize their potential advantage by maturing and laying more eggs. However, ectotherm physiology is strongly temperature-dependent, and activities are carried out sufficiently only within certain temperature ranges. Thus it remains unclear if the fecundity advantage of a large size is fully realized in natural environments, where thermal conditions are limiting. * 2. Insect fecundity might be limited by temperature at two levels; first eggs need to mature, and then the female needs time for strategic ovipositing of the egg. Since a female cannot foresee the number of oviposition opportunities that she will encounter on a given day, the optimal rate of egg maturation will be governed by trade-offs associated with egg- and time-limited oviposition. As females of different sizes will have different amounts of body reserves, size-dependent allocation trade-offs between the mother"s condition and her egg production might be expected. * 3. In the temperate butterfly Pararge aegeria, the time and temperature dependence of oviposition and egg maturation, and the interrelatedness of these two processes were investigated in a series of laboratory experiments, allowing a decoupling of the time budgets for the respective processes. * 4. The results show that realized fecundity of this species can be limited by both the temperature dependence of egg maturation and oviposition under certain thermal regimes. Furthermore, rates of oviposition and egg maturation seemed to have regulatory effects upon each other. Early reproductive output was correlated with short life span, indicating a cost of reproduction. Finally, large females matured more eggs than small females when deprived of oviposition opportunities. Thus, the optimal allocation of resources to egg production seems dependent on female size. * 5. This study highlights the complexity of processes underlying rates of egg maturation and oviposition in ectotherms under natural conditions. We further discuss the importance of temperature variation for egg- vs. time-limited fecundity and the consequences for the evolution of female body size in insects.
The effect of moderate rates of nitrogen deposition on ground floor vegetation is poorly predicted by uncontrolled surveys or fertilization experiments using high rates of nitrogen (N) addition. We compared the temporal trends of ground floor vegetation in permanent plots with moderate (7–13 kg ha−1 year−1) and lower bulk N deposition (4–6 kg ha−1 year−1) in southern Sweden during 1982–1998. We examined whether trends differed between growth forms (vascular plants and bryophytes) and vegetation types (three types of coniferous forest, deciduous forest, and bog). Trends of site-standardized cover and richness varied among growth forms, vegetation types, and deposition regions. Cover in spruce forests decreased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs cover decreased faster with low deposition. Cover of bryophytes in spruce forests increased at the same rate with both moderate and low deposition. In pine forests cover decreased faster with moderate deposition and in bogs and deciduous forests there was a strong non-linear increase with moderate deposition. The trend of number of vascular plants was constant with moderate and decreased with low deposition. We found no trend in the number of bryophyte species. We propose that the decrease of cover and number with low deposition was related to normal ecosystem development (increased shading), suggesting that N deposition maintained or increased the competitiveness of some species in the moderate-deposition region. Deposition had no consistent negative effect on vegetation suggesting that it is less important than normal successional processes.