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Over the past decades, natural hazards, many of which are aggravated by climate change and reveal an increasing trend in frequency and intensity, have caused significant human and economic losses and pose a considerable obstacle to sustainable development. Hence, dedicated action toward disaster risk reduction is needed to understand the underlying drivers and create efficient risk mitigation plans. Such action is requested by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), a global agreement launched in 2015 that establishes stating priorities for action, e.g. an improved understanding of disaster risk. Turkey is one of the SFDRR contracting countries and has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. However, disproportionately little is known about flood hazards and risks in Turkey. Therefore, this thesis aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis of flood hazards for the first time in Turkey from triggering drivers to impacts. It is intended to contribute to a better understanding of flood risks, improvements of flood risk mitigation and the facilitated monitoring of progress and achievements while implementing the SFDRR.
In order to investigate the occurrence and severity of flooding in comparison to other natural hazards in Turkey and provide an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses, the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was examined for the years 1960-2014. The TABB database was reviewed through comparison with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, the scientific literature and news archives. In addition, data on the most severe flood events between 1960 and 2014 were retrieved. These served as a basis for analyzing triggering mechanisms (i.e. atmospheric circulation and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e. topographic features, catchment size, land use types and soil properties). For this, a new approach was developed and the events were classified using hierarchical cluster analyses to identify the main influencing factor per event and provide additional information about the dominant flood pathways for severe floods. The main idea of the study was to start with the event impacts based on a bottom-up approach and identify the causes that created damaging events, instead of applying a model chain with long-term series as input and searching for potentially impacting events as model outcomes. However, within the frequency analysis of the flood-triggering circulation pattern types, it was discovered that events in terms of heavy precipitation were not included in the list of most severe floods, i.e. their impacts were not recorded in national and international loss databases but were mentioned in news archives and reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This finding challenges bottom-up modelling approaches and underlines the urgent need for consistent event and loss documentation. Therefore, as a next step, the aim was to enhance the flood loss documentation by calibrating, validating and applying the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) loss estimation method for the recent severe flood events (2015-2020). This provided, a consistent flood loss estimation model for Turkey, allowing governments to estimate losses as quickly as possible after events, e.g. to better coordinate financial aid.
This thesis reveals that, after earthquakes, floods have the second most destructive effects in Turkey in terms of human and economic impacts, with over 800 fatalities and US$ 885.7 million in economic losses between 1960 and 2020, and that more attention should be paid on the national scale. The clustering results of the dominant flood-producing mechanisms (e.g. circulation pattern types, extreme rainfall, sudden snowmelt) present crucial information regarding the source and pathway identification, which can be used as base information for hazard identification in the preliminary risk assessment process. The implementation of the UNDRR loss estimation model shows that the model with country-specific parameters, calibrated damage ratios and sufficient event documentation (i.e. physically damaged units) can be recommended in order to provide first estimates of the magnitude of direct economic losses, even shortly after events have occurred, since it performed well when estimates were compared to documented losses.
The presented results can contribute to improving the national disaster loss database in Turkey and thus enable a better monitoring of the national progress and achievements with regard to the targets stated by the SFDRR. In addition, the outcomes can be used to better characterize and classify flood events. Information on the main underlying factors and aggravating flood pathways further supports the selection of suitable risk reduction policies.
All input variables used in this thesis were obtained from publicly available data. The results are openly accessible and can be used for further research.
As an overall conclusion, it can be stated that consistent loss data collection and better event documentation should gain more attention for a reliable monitoring of the implementation of the SFDRR. Better event documentation should be established according to a globally accepted standard for disaster classification and loss estimation in Turkey. Ultimately, this enables stakeholders to create better risk mitigation actions based on clear hazard definitions, flood event classification and consistent loss estimations.
Exendin-4 is a pharmaceutical peptide used in the control of insulin secretion. Structural information on exendin-4 and related peptides especially on the level of quaternary structure is scarce. We present the first published association equilibria of exendin-4 directly measured by static and dynamic light scattering. We show that exendin-4 oligomerization is pH dependent and that these oligomers are of low compactness. We relate our experimental results to a structural hypothesis to describe molecular details of exendin-4 oligomers. Discussion of the validity of this hypothesis is based on NMR, circular dichroism and fluorescence spectroscopy, and light scattering data on exendin-4 and a set of exendin-4 derived peptides. The essential forces driving oligomerization of exendin-4 are helix–helix interactions and interactions of a conserved hydrophobic moiety. Our structural hypothesis suggests that key interactions of exendin-4 monomers in the experimentally supported trimer take place between a defined helical segment and a hydrophobic triangle constituted by the Phe22 residues of the three monomeric subunits. Our data rationalize that Val19 might function as an anchor in the N-terminus of the interacting helix-region and that Trp25 is partially shielded in the oligomer by C-terminal amino acids of the same monomer. Our structural hypothesis suggests that the Trp25 residues do not interact with each other, but with C-terminal Pro residues of their own monomers.
A few months before his death, A. v. Humboldt attended the celebration in honor of the 127th birthday of George Washington at the US legation in Berlin. A letter to the American Envoy, Joseph A. Wright (1810 – 1867), underlines Humboldt’s admiration for the fi rst president of the United States. At the same time Humboldt asked the diplomat to mail a letter to the German-American Bernard Moses (1832 – 1897) in Clinton, Louisiana, who had named his son Alexander Humboldt Moses (grave on the Hebrew Rest Cemetery #2 in New Orleans, burial plot A, 12, 5). It appears to be possible that the Moses family still owns Humboldt’s letter.
The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases.
With the downscaling of CMOS technologies, the radiation-induced Single Event Transient (SET) effects in combinational logic have become a critical reliability issue for modern integrated circuits (ICs) intended for operation under harsh radiation conditions. The SET pulses generated in combinational logic may propagate through the circuit and eventually result in soft errors. It has thus become an imperative to address the SET effects in the early phases of the radiation-hard IC design. In general, the soft error mitigation solutions should accommodate both static and dynamic measures to ensure the optimal utilization of available resources. An efficient soft-error-aware design should address synergistically three main aspects: (i) characterization and modeling of soft errors, (ii) multi-level soft error mitigation, and (iii) online soft error monitoring. Although significant results have been achieved, the effectiveness of SET characterization methods, accuracy of predictive SET models, and efficiency of SET mitigation measures are still critical issues. Therefore, this work addresses the following topics: (i) Characterization and modeling of SET effects in standard combinational cells, (ii) Static mitigation of SET effects in standard combinational cells, and (iii) Online particle detection, as a support for dynamic soft error mitigation.
Since the standard digital libraries are widely used in the design of radiation-hard ICs, the characterization of SET effects in standard cells and the availability of accurate SET models for the Soft Error Rate (SER) evaluation are the main prerequisites for efficient radiation-hard design. This work introduces an approach for the SPICE-based standard cell characterization with the reduced number of simulations, improved SET models and optimized SET sensitivity database. It has been shown that the inherent similarities in the SET response of logic cells for different input levels can be utilized to reduce the number of required simulations. Based on characterization results, the fitting models for the SET sensitivity metrics (critical charge, generated SET pulse width and propagated SET pulse width) have been developed. The proposed models are based on the principle of superposition, and they express explicitly the dependence of the SET sensitivity of individual combinational cells on design, operating and irradiation parameters. In contrast to the state-of-the-art characterization methodologies which employ extensive look-up tables (LUTs) for storing the simulation results, this work proposes the use of LUTs for storing the fitting coefficients of the SET sensitivity models derived from the characterization results. In that way the amount of characterization data in the SET sensitivity database is reduced significantly.
The initial step in enhancing the robustness of combinational logic is the application of gate-level mitigation techniques. As a result, significant improvement of the overall SER can be achieved with minimum area, delay and power overheads. For the SET mitigation in standard cells, it is essential to employ the techniques that do not require modifying the cell structure. This work introduces the use of decoupling cells for improving the robustness of standard combinational cells. By insertion of two decoupling cells at the output of a target cell, the critical charge of the cell’s output node is increased and the attenuation of short SETs is enhanced. In comparison to the most common gate-level techniques (gate upsizing and gate duplication), the proposed approach provides better SET filtering. However, as there is no single gate-level mitigation technique with optimal performance, a combination of multiple techniques is required. This work introduces a comprehensive characterization of gate-level mitigation techniques aimed to quantify their impact on the SET robustness improvement, as well as introduced area, delay and power overhead per gate. By characterizing the gate-level mitigation techniques together with the standard cells, the required effort in subsequent SER analysis of a target design can be reduced. The characterization database of the hardened standard cells can be utilized as a guideline for selection of the most appropriate mitigation solution for a given design.
As a support for dynamic soft error mitigation techniques, it is important to enable the online detection of energetic particles causing the soft errors. This allows activating the power-greedy fault-tolerant configurations based on N-modular redundancy only at the high radiation levels. To enable such a functionality, it is necessary to monitor both the particle flux and the variation of particle LET, as these two parameters contribute significantly to the system SER. In this work, a particle detection approach based on custom-sized pulse stretching inverters is proposed. Employing the pulse stretching inverters connected in parallel enables to measure the particle flux in terms of the number of detected SETs, while the particle LET variations can be estimated from the distribution of SET pulse widths. This approach requires a purely digital processing logic, in contrast to the standard detectors which require complex mixed-signal processing. Besides the possibility of LET monitoring, additional advantages of the proposed particle detector are low detection latency and power consumption, and immunity to error accumulation.
The results achieved in this thesis can serve as a basis for establishment of an overall soft-error-aware database for a given digital library, and a comprehensive multi-level radiation-hard design flow that can be implemented with the standard IC design tools. The following step will be to evaluate the achieved results with the irradiation experiments.
Atmospheric water vapour content is a key variable that controls the development of deep convective storms and rainfall extremes over the central Andes. Direct measurements of water vapour are challenging; however, recent developments in microwave processing allow the use of phase delays from L-band radar to measure the water vapour content throughout the atmosphere: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based integrated water vapour (IWV) monitoring shows promising results to measure vertically integrated water vapour at high temporal resolutions. Previous works also identified convective available potential energy (CAPE) as a key climatic variable for the formation of deep convective storms and rainfall in the central Andes. Our analysis relies on GNSS data from the Argentine Continuous Satellite Monitoring Network, Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo (RAMSAC) network from 1999 to 2013. CAPE is derived from version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) and rainfall from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product. In this study, we first analyse the rainfall characteristics of two GNSS-IWV stations by comparing their complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Second, we separately derive the relation between rainfall vs. CAPE and GNSS-IWV. Based on our distribution fitting analysis, we observe an exponential relation of rainfall to GNSS-IWV. In contrast, we report a power-law relationship between the daily mean value of rainfall and CAPE at the GNSS-IWV station locations in the eastern central Andes that is close to the theoretical relationship based on parcel theory. Third, we generate a joint regression model through a multivariable regression analysis using CAPE and GNSS-IWV to explain the contribution of both variables in the presence of each other to extreme rainfall during the austral summer season. We found that rainfall can be characterised with a higher statistical significance for higher rainfall quantiles, e.g., the 0.9 quantile based on goodness-of-fit criterion for quantile regression. We observed different contributions of CAPE and GNSS-IWV to rainfall for each station for the 0.9 quantile. Fourth, we identify the temporal relation between extreme rainfall (the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and both GNSS-IWV and CAPE at 6 h time steps. We observed an increase before the rainfall event and at the time of peak rainfall—both for GNSS-integrated water vapour and CAPE. We show higher values of CAPE and GNSS-IWV for higher rainfall percentiles (99th and 95th percentiles) compared to the 90th percentile at a 6-h temporal scale. Based on our correlation analyses and the dynamics of the time series, we show that both GNSS-IWV and CAPE had comparable magnitudes, and we argue to consider both climatic variables when investigating their effect on rainfall extremes.
We consider a sequential cascade of molecular first-reaction events towards a terminal reaction centre in which each reaction step is controlled by diffusive motion of the particles. The model studied here represents a typical reaction setting encountered in diverse molecular biology systems, in which, e.g. a signal transduction proceeds via a series of consecutive 'messengers': the first messenger has to find its respective immobile target site triggering a launch of the second messenger, the second messenger seeks its own target site and provokes a launch of the third messenger and so on, resembling a relay race in human competitions. For such a molecular relay race taking place in infinite one-, two- and three-dimensional systems, we find exact expressions for the probability density function of the time instant of the terminal reaction event, conditioned on preceding successful reaction events on an ordered array of target sites. The obtained expressions pertain to the most general conditions: number of intermediate stages and the corresponding diffusion coefficients, the sizes of the target sites, the distances between them, as well as their reactivities are arbitrary.
In an attempt to pave the way for more extensive Computer Science Education (CSE) coverage in K-12, this research developed and made a preliminary evaluation of a blended-learning Introduction to CS program based on an academic MOOC. Using an academic MOOC that is pedagogically effective and engaging, such a program may provide teachers with disciplinary scaffolds and allow them to focus their attention on enhancing students’ learning experience and nurturing critical 21st-century skills such as self-regulated learning. As we demonstrate, this enabled us to introduce an academic level course to middle-school students. In this research, we developed the principals and initial version of such a program, targeting ninth-graders in science-track classes who learn CS as part of their standard curriculum. We found that the middle-schoolers who participated in the program achieved academic results on par with undergraduate students taking this MOOC for academic credit. Participating students also developed a more accurate perception of the essence of CS as a scientific discipline. The unplanned school closure due to the COVID19 pandemic outbreak challenged the research but underlined the advantages of such a MOOCbased blended learning program above classic pedagogy in times of global or local crises that lead to school closure. While most of the science track classes seem to stop learning CS almost entirely, and the end-of-year MoE exam was discarded, the program’s classes smoothly moved to remote learning mode, and students continued to study at a pace similar to that experienced before the school shut down.
This thesis focuses on the study of marked Gibbs point processes, in particular presenting some results on their existence and uniqueness, with ideas and techniques drawn from different areas of statistical mechanics: the entropy method from large deviations theory, cluster expansion and the Kirkwood--Salsburg equations, the Dobrushin contraction principle and disagreement percolation.
We first present an existence result for infinite-volume marked Gibbs point processes. More precisely, we use the so-called entropy method (and large-deviation tools) to construct marked Gibbs point processes in R^d under quite general assumptions. In particular, the random marks belong to a general normed space S and are not bounded. Moreover, we allow for interaction functionals that may be unbounded and whose range is finite but random. The entropy method relies on showing that a family of finite-volume Gibbs point processes belongs to sequentially compact entropy level sets, and is therefore tight.
We then present infinite-dimensional Langevin diffusions, that we put in interaction via a Gibbsian description. In this setting, we are able to adapt the general result above to show the existence of the associated infinite-volume measure. We also study its correlation functions via cluster expansion techniques, and obtain the uniqueness of the Gibbs process for all inverse temperatures β and activities z below a certain threshold. This method relies in first showing that the correlation functions of the process satisfy a so-called Ruelle bound, and then using it to solve a fixed point problem in an appropriate Banach space. The uniqueness domain we obtain consists then of the model parameters z and β for which such a problem has exactly one solution.
Finally, we explore further the question of uniqueness of infinite-volume Gibbs point processes on R^d, in the unmarked setting. We present, in the context of repulsive interactions with a hard-core component, a novel approach to uniqueness by applying the discrete Dobrushin criterion to the continuum framework. We first fix a discretisation parameter a>0 and then study the behaviour of the uniqueness domain as a goes to 0. With this technique we are able to obtain explicit thresholds for the parameters z and β, which we then compare to existing results coming from the different methods of cluster expansion and disagreement percolation.
Throughout this thesis, we illustrate our theoretical results with various examples both from classical statistical mechanics and stochastic geometry.
Monoclonal antibodies are used worldwide as highly potent and efficient detection reagents for research and diagnostic applications. Nevertheless, the specific targeting of complex antigens such as whole microorganisms remains a challenge. To provide a comprehensive workflow, we combined bioinformatic analyses with novel immunization and selection tools to design monoclonal antibodies for the detection of whole microorganisms. In our initial study, we used the human pathogenic strain E. coli O157:H7 as a model target and identified 53 potential protein candidates by using reverse vaccinology methodology. Five different peptide epitopes were selected for immunization using epitope-engineered viral proteins. The identification of antibody-producing hybridomas was performed by using a novel screening technology based on transgenic fusion cell lines. Using an artificial cell surface receptor expressed by all hybridomas, the desired antigen-specific cells can be sorted fast and efficiently out of the fusion cell pool. Selected antibody candidates were characterized and showed strong binding to the target strain E. coli O157:H7 with minor or no cross-reactivity to other relevant microorganisms such as Legionella pneumophila and Bacillus ssp. This approach could be useful as a highly efficient workflow for the generation of antibodies against microorganisms.