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The Arctic is the hot spot of the ongoing, global climate change. Over the last decades, near-surface temperatures in the Arctic have been rising almost four times faster than on global average. This amplified warming of the Arctic and the associated rapid changes of its environment are largely influenced by interactions between individual components of the Arctic climate system. On daily to weekly time scales, storms can have major impacts on the Arctic sea-ice cover and are thus an important part of these interactions within the Arctic climate. The sea-ice impacts of storms are related to high wind speeds, which enhance the drift and deformation of sea ice, as well as to changes in the surface energy budget in association with air mass advection, which impact the seasonal sea-ice growth and melt.
The occurrence of storms in the Arctic is typically associated with the passage of transient cyclones. Even though the above described mechanisms how storms/cyclones impact the Arctic sea ice are in principal known, there is a lack of statistical quantification of these effects. In accordance with that, the overarching objective of this thesis is to statistically quantify cyclone impacts on sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean over the last four decades. In order to further advance the understanding of the related mechanisms, an additional objective is to separate dynamic and thermodynamic cyclone impacts on sea ice and assess their relative importance. Finally, this thesis aims to quantify recent changes in cyclone impacts on SIC. These research objectives are tackled utilizing various data sets, including atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data as well as a coupled model simulation and a cyclone tracking algorithm.
Results from this thesis demonstrate that cyclones are significantly impacting SIC in the Atlantic Arctic Ocean from autumn to spring, while there are mostly no significant impacts in summer. The strength and the sign (SIC decreasing or SIC increasing) of the cyclone impacts strongly depends on the considered daily time scale and the region of the Atlantic Arctic Ocean. Specifically, an initial decrease in SIC (day -3 to day 0 relative to the cyclone) is found in the Greenland, Barents and Kara Seas, while SIC increases following cyclones (day 0 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) are mostly limited to the Barents and Kara Seas.
For the cold season, this results in a pronounced regional difference between overall (day -3 to day 5 relative to the cyclone) SIC-decreasing cyclone impacts in the Greenland Sea and overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in the Barents and Kara Seas. A cyclone case study based on a coupled model simulation indicates that both dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms contribute to cyclone impacts on sea ice in winter. A typical pattern consisting of an initial dominance of dynamic sea-ice changes followed by enhanced thermodynamic ice growth after the cyclone passage was found. This enhanced ice growth after the cyclone passage most likely also explains the (statistical) overall SIC-increasing effects of cyclones in the Barents and Kara Seas in the cold season.
Significant changes in cyclone impacts on SIC over the last four decades have emerged throughout the year. These recent changes are strongly varying from region to region and month to month. The strongest trends in cyclone impacts on SIC are found in autumn in the Barents and Kara Seas. Here, the magnitude of destructive cyclone impacts on SIC has approximately doubled over the last four decades. The SIC-increasing effects following the cyclone passage have particularly weakened in the Barents Sea in autumn. As a consequence, previously existing overall SIC-increasing cyclone impacts in this region in autumn have recently disappeared. Generally, results from this thesis show that changes in the state of the sea-ice cover (decrease in mean sea-ice concentration and thickness) and near-surface air temperature are most important for changed cyclone impacts on SIC, while changes in cyclone properties (i.e. intensity) do not play a significant role.
Runoff predictions in ungauged arctic basins using conceptual models forced by reanalysis data
(2018)
Due to global warming, the problem of assessing water resources and their vulnerability to climate drivers in the Arctic region has become a focus in the recent years. This study is aimed at investigating three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil, or vegetation cover properties of the studied basins. Model parameter regionalization based on transferring the whole parameter set showed good efficiency for predictions in ungauged basins. We run a blind test of the proposed methodology for ensemble runoff predictions on five sub-basins, for which only monthly observations were available, and obtained promising results for current water resources assessment for a broad domain of ungauged basins in the Russian Arctic.
The Arctic is considered as a focal region in the ongoing climate change debate. The currently observed and predicted climate warming is particularly pronounced in the high northern latitudes. Rising temperatures in the Arctic cause progressive deepening and duration of permafrost thawing during the arctic summer, creating an ‘active layer’ with high bioavailability of nutrients and labile carbon for microbial consumption. The microbial mineralization of permafrost carbon creates large amounts of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane, which can be released to the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback to global warming. However, to date, the microbial communities that drive the overall carbon cycle and specifically methane production in the Arctic are poorly constrained. To assess how these microbial communities will respond to the predicted climate changes, such as an increase in atmospheric and soil temperatures causing increased bioavailability of organic carbon, it is necessary to investigate the current status of this environment, but also how these microbial communities reacted to climate changes in the past. This PhD thesis investigated three records from two different study sites in the Russian Arctic, including permafrost, lake shore and lake deposits from Siberia and Chukotka. A combined stratigraphic approach of microbial and molecular organic geochemical techniques were used to identify and quantify characteristic microbial gene and lipid biomarkers. Based on this data it was possible to characterize and identify the climate response of microbial communities involved in past carbon cycling during the Middle Pleistocene and the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. It is shown that previous warmer periods were associated with an expansion of bacterial and archaeal communities throughout the Russian Arctic, similar to present day conditions. Different from this situation, past glacial and stadial periods experienced a substantial decrease in the abundance of Bacteria and Archaea. This trend can also be confirmed for the community of methanogenic archaea that were highly abundant and diverse during warm and particularly wet conditions. For the terrestrial permafrost, a direct effect of the temperature on the microbial communities is likely. In contrast, it is suggested that the temperature rise in scope of the glacial-interglacial climate variations led to an increase of the primary production in the Arctic lake setting, as can be seen in the corresponding biogenic silica distribution. The availability of this algae-derived carbon is suggested to be a driver for the observed pattern in the microbial abundance. This work demonstrates the effect of climate changes on the community composition of methanogenic archae. Methanosarcina-related species were abundant throughout the Russian Arctic and were able to adapt to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, members of Methanocellales and Methanomicrobiales were not able to adapt to past climate changes. This PhD thesis provides first evidence that past climatic warming led to an increased abundance of microbial communities in the Arctic, closely linked to the cycling of carbon and methane production. With the predicted climate warming, it may, therefore, be anticipated that extensive amounts of microbial communities will develop. Increasing temperatures in the Arctic will affect the temperature sensitive parts of the current microbiological communities, possibly leading to a suppression of cold adapted species and the prevalence of methanogenic archaea that tolerate or adapt to increasing temperatures. These changes in the composition of methanogenic archaea will likely increase the methane production potential of high latitude terrestrial regions, changing the Arctic from a carbon sink to a source.
Anthropogenic activities have led to a global decline in biodiversity, and monitoring studies indicate that both insect communities and wetland ecosystems are particularly affected. However, there is a need for long-term data (over centennial or millennial timescales) to better understand natural community dynamics and the processes that govern the observed trends. Chironomids (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) are often the most abundant insects in lake ecosystems, sensitive to environmental change, and, because their larval exoskeleton head capsules preserve well in lake sediments, they provide a unique record of insect community dynamics through time. Here, we provide the results of a metadata analysis of chironomid diversity across a range of spatial and temporal scales. First, we analyse spatial trends in chironomid diversity using Northern Hemispheric data sets overall consisting of 837 lakes. Our results indicate that in most of our data sets, summer temperature (T-jul) is strongly associated with spatial trends in modern-day chironomid diversity. We observe a strong increase in chironomid alpha diversity with increasing T-jul in regions with present-day T-jul between 2.5 and 14 degrees C. In some areas with T-jul > 14 degrees C, chironomid diversity stabilizes or declines. Second, we demonstrate that the direction and amplitude of change in alpha diversity in a compilation of subfossil chironomid records spanning the last glacial-interglacial transition (similar to 15,000-11,000 years ago) are similar to those observed in our modern data. A compilation of Holocene records shows that during phases when the amplitude of temperature change was small, site-specific factors had a greater influence on the chironomid fauna obscuring the chironomid diversity-temperature relationship. Our results imply expected overall chironomid diversity increases in colder regions such as the Arctic under sustained global warming, but with complex and not necessarily predictable responses for individual sites.
Permafrost-affected ecosystems including peat wetlands are among the most obvious regions in which current microbial controls on organic matter decomposition are likely to change as a result of global warming. Wet tundra ecosystems in particular are ideal sites for increased methane production because of the waterlogged, anoxic conditions that prevail in seasonally increasing thawed layers. The following doctoral research project focused on investigating the abundance and distribution of the methane-cycling microbial communities in four different polygons on Herschel Island and the Yukon Coast. Despite the relevance of the Canadian Western Arctic in the global methane budget, the permafrost microbial communities there have thus far remained insufficiently characterized. Through the study of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbial communities involved in the decomposition of permafrost organic matter and their potential reaction to rising environmental temperatures, the overarching goal of the ensuing thesis is to fill the current gap in understanding the fate of the organic carbon currently stored in Artic environments and its implications regarding the methane cycle in permafrost environments. To attain this goal, a multiproxy approach including community fingerprinting analysis, cloning, quantitative PCR and next generation sequencing was used to describe the bacterial and archaeal community present in the active layer of four polygons and to scrutinize the diversity and distribution of methane-cycling microorganisms at different depths. These methods were combined with soil properties analyses in order to identify the main physico-chemical variables shaping these communities. In addition a climate warming simulation experiment was carried-out on intact active layer cores retrieved from Herschel Island in order to investigate the changes in the methane-cycling communities associated with an increase in soil temperature and to help better predict future methane-fluxes from polygonal wet tundra environments in the context of climate change. Results showed that the microbial community found in the water-saturated and carbon-rich polygons on Herschel Island and the Yukon Coast was diverse and showed a similar distribution with depth in all four polygons sampled. Specifically, the methanogenic community identified resembled the communities found in other similar Arctic study sites and showed comparable potential methane production rates, whereas the methane oxidizing bacterial community differed from what has been found so far, being dominated by type-II rather than type-I methanotrophs. After being subjected to strong increases in soil temperature, the active-layer microbial community demonstrated the ability to quickly adapt and as a result shifts in community composition could be observed. These results contribute to the understanding of carbon dynamics in Arctic permafrost regions and allow an assessment of the potential impact of climate change on methane-cycling microbial communities. This thesis constitutes the first in-depth study of methane-cycling communities in the Canadian Western Arctic, striving to advance our understanding of these communities in degrading permafrost environments by establishing an important new observatory in the Circum-Arctic.
Thermokarst lakes cover nearly one fourth of ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic. Sediments from an athalassic subsaline thermokarst lake on Herschel Island (69°36′N; 139°04′W, Canadian Arctic) were used to understand regional changes in climate and in sediment transport, hydrology, nutrient availability and permafrost disturbance. The sediment record spans the last ~ 11,700 years and the basal date is in good agreement with the Holocene onset of thermokarst initiation in the region. Electrical conductivity in pore water continuously decreases, thus indicating desalinization and continuous increase of lake size and water level. The inc/coh ratio of XRF scans provides a high-resolution organic-carbon proxy which correlates with TOC measurements. XRF-derived Mn/Fe ratios indicate aerobic versus anaerobic conditions which moderate the preservation potential of organic matter in lake sediments. The coexistence of marine, brackish and freshwater ostracods and foraminifera is explained by (1) oligohaline to mesohaline water chemistry of the past lake and (2) redeposition of Pleistocene specimens found within upthrusted marine sediments around the lake. Episodes of catchment disturbance are identified when calcareous fossils and allochthonous material were transported into the lake by thermokarst processes such as active-layer detachments, slumping and erosion of ice-rich shores. The pollen record does not show major variations and the pollen-based climate record does not match well with other summer air temperature reconstructions from this region. Local vegetation patterns in small catchments are strongly linked to morphology and sub-surface permafrost conditions rather than to climate. Multidisciplinary studies can identify the onset and life cycle of thermokarst lakes as they play a crucial role in Arctic freshwater ecosystems and in the global carbon cycle of the past, present and future.
Ice-wedge polygon (IWP) peatlands in the Arctic and Subarctic are extremely vulnerable to climatic and environmental change. We present the results of a multidisciplinary paleoenvironmental study on IWPs in the northern Yukon, Canada. High-resolution laboratory analyses were carried out on a permafrost core and the overlying seasonally thawed (active) layer, from an IWP located in a drained lake basin on Herschel Island. In relation to 14 Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates spanning the last 5000 years, we report sedimentary data including grain size distribution and biogeochemical parameters (organic carbon, nitrogen, C/N ratio, delta C-13), stable water isotopes (delta O-18, delta D), as well as fossil pollen, plant macrofossil and diatom assemblages. Three sediment units (SUS) correspond to the main stages of deposition (1) in a thermokarst lake (SW : 4950 to 3950 cal yrs BP), (2) during transition from lacustrine to palustrine conditions after lake drainage (SU2: 3950 to 3120 cal yrs BP), and (3) in palustrine conditions of the IWP field that developed after drainage (SU3: 3120 cal yrs BP to 2012 CE). The lacustrine phase (pre 3950 cal yrs BP) is characterized by planktonic-benthic and pioneer diatom species indicating circumneutral waters, and very few plant macrofossils. The pollen record has captured a regional signal of relatively stable vegetation composition and climate for the lacustrine stage of the record until 3950 cal yrs BP. Palustrine conditions with benthic and acidophilic diatom species characterize the peaty shallow-water environments of the low-centered IWP. The transition from lacustrine to palustrine conditions was accompanied by acidification and rapid revegetation of the lake bottom within about 100 years. Since the palustrine phase we consider the pollen record as a local vegetation proxy dominated by the plant communities growing in the IWP. Ice-wedge cracking in water-saturated sediments started immediately after lake drainage at about 3950 cal yrs BP and led to the formation of an IWP mire. Permafrost aggradation through downward closed-system freezing of the lake talik is indicated by the stable water isotope record. The originally submerged IWP center underwent gradual drying during the past 2000 years. This study highlights the sensitivity of permafrost landscapes to climate and environmental change throughout the Holocene. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Arctic is a particularly sensitive area with respect to climate change due to the high surface albedo of snow and ice and the extreme radiative conditions. Clouds and aerosols as parts of the Arctic atmosphere play an important role in the radiation budget, which is, as yet, poorly quantified and understood. The LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) measurements presented in this PhD thesis contribute with continuous altitude resolved aerosol profiles to the understanding of occurrence and characteristics of aerosol layers above Ny-Ålesund, Spitsbergen. The attention was turned to the analysis of periods with high aerosol load. As the Arctic spring troposphere exhibits maximum aerosol optical depths (AODs) each year, March and April of both the years 2007 and 2009 were analyzed. Furthermore, stratospheric aerosol layers of volcanic origin were analyzed for several months, subsequently to the eruptions of the Kasatochi and Sarychev volcanoes in summer 2008 and 2009, respectively. The Koldewey Aerosol Raman LIDAR (KARL) is an instrument for the active remote sensing of atmospheric parameters using pulsed laser radiation. It is operated at the AWIPEV research base and was fundamentally upgraded within the framework of this PhD project. It is now equipped with a new telescope mirror and new detection optics, which facilitate atmospheric profiling from 450m above sea level up to the mid-stratosphere. KARL provides highly resolved profiles of the scattering characteristics of aerosol and cloud particles (backscattering, extinction and depolarization) as well as water vapor profiles within the lower troposphere. Combination of KARL data with data from other instruments on site, namely radiosondes, sun photometer, Micro Pulse LIDAR, and tethersonde system, resulted in a comprehensive data set of scattering phenomena in the Arctic atmosphere. The two spring periods March and April 2007 and 2009 were at first analyzed based on meteorological parameters, like local temperature and relative humidity profiles as well as large scale pressure patterns and air mass origin regions. Here, it was not possible to find a clear correlation between enhanced AOD and air mass origin. However, in a comparison of two cloud free periods in March 2007 and April 2009, large AOD values in 2009 coincided with air mass transport through the central Arctic. This suggests the occurrence of aerosol transformation processes during the aerosol transport to Ny-Ålesund. Measurements on 4 April 2009 revealed maximum AOD values of up to 0.12 and aerosol size distributions changing with altitude. This and other performed case studies suggest the differentiation between three aerosol event types and their origin: Vertically limited aerosol layers in dry air, highly variable hygroscopic boundary layer aerosols and enhanced aerosol load across wide portions of the troposphere. For the spring period 2007, the available KARL data were statistically analyzed using a characterization scheme, which is based on optical characteristics of the scattering particles. The scheme was validated using several case studies. Volcanic eruptions in the northern hemisphere in August 2008 and June 2009 arose the opportunity to analyze volcanic aerosol layers within the stratosphere. The rate of stratospheric AOD change was similar within both years with maximum values above 0.1 about three to five weeks after the respective eruption. In both years, the stratospheric AOD persisted at higher rates than usual until the measurements were stopped in late September due to technical reasons. In 2008, up to three aerosol layers were detected, the layer structure in 2009 was characterized by up to six distinct and thin layers which smeared out to one broad layer after about two months. The lowermost aerosol layer was continuously detected at the tropopause altitude. Three case studies were performed, all revealed rather large indices of refraction of m = (1.53–1.55) - 0.02i, suggesting the presence of an absorbing carbonaceous component. The particle radius, derived with inversion calculations, was also similar in both years with values ranging from 0.16 to 0.19 μm. However, in 2009, a second mode in the size distribution was detected at about 0.5 μm. The long term measurements with the Koldewey Aerosol Raman LIDAR in Ny-Ålesund provide the opportunity to study Arctic aerosols in the troposphere and the stratosphere not only in case studies but on longer time scales. In this PhD thesis, both, tropospheric aerosols in the Arctic spring and stratospheric aerosols following volcanic eruptions have been described qualitatively and quantitatively. Case studies and comparative studies with data of other instruments on site allowed for the analysis of microphysical aerosol characteristics and their temporal evolution.
In this work, a closure experiment for tropospheric aerosol is presented. Aerosol size distributions and single scattering albedo from remote sensing data are compared to those measured in-situ. An aerosol pollution event on 4 April 2009 was observed by ground based and airborne lidar and photometer in and around Ny-Alesund, Spitsbergen, as well as by DMPS, nephelometer and particle soot absorption photometer at the nearby Zeppelin Mountain Research Station.
The presented measurements were conducted in an area of 40 x 20 km around Ny-Alesund as part of the 2009 Polar Airborne Measurements and Arctic Regional Climate Model Simulation Project (PAMARCMiP). Aerosol mainly in the accumulation mode was found in the lower troposphere, however, enhanced backscattering was observed up to the tropopause altitude. A comparison of meteorological data available at different locations reveals a stable multi-layer-structure of the lower troposphere. It is followed by the retrieval of optical and microphysical aerosol parameters. Extinction values have been derived using two different methods, and it was found that extinction (especially in the UV) derived from Raman lidar data significantly surpasses the extinction derived from photometer AOD profiles. Airborne lidar data shows volume depolarization values to be less than 2.5% between 500 m and 2.5 km altitude, hence, particles in this range can be assumed to be of spherical shape. In-situ particle number concentrations measured at the Zeppelin Mountain Research Station at 474 m altitude peak at about 0.18 mu m diameter, which was also found for the microphysical inversion calculations performed at 850 m and 1500 m altitude. Number concentrations depend on the assumed extinction values, and slightly decrease with altitude as well as the effective particle diameter. A low imaginary part in the derived refractive index suggests weakly absorbing aerosols, which is confirmed by low black carbon concentrations, measured at the Zeppelin Mountain as well as on board the Polar 5 aircraft.
Lakes are dominant and diverse landscape features in the Arctic, but conventional land cover classification schemes typically map them as a single uniform class. Here, we present a detailed lake-centric geospatial database for an Arctic watershed in northern Alaska. We developed a GIS dataset consisting of 4362 lakes that provides information on lake morphometry, hydrologic connectivity, surface area dynamics, surrounding terrestrial ecotypes, and other important conditions describing Arctic lakes. Analyzing the geospatial database relative to fish and bird survey data shows relations to lake depth and hydrologic connectivity, which are being used to guide research and aid in the management of aquatic resources in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska. Further development of similar geospatial databases is needed to better understand and plan for the impacts of ongoing climate and land-use changes occurring across lake-rich landscapes in the Arctic.