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It is often claimed that the entropy of a network's degree distribution is a proxy for its robustness. Here, we clarify the link between degree distribution entropy and giant component robustness to node removal by showing that the former merely sets a lower bound to the latter for randomly configured networks when no other network characteristics are specified. Furthermore, we show that, for networks of fixed expected degree that follow degree distributions of the same form, the degree distribution entropy is not indicative of robustness. By contrast, we show that the remaining degree entropy and robustness have a positive monotonic relationship and give an analytic expression for the remaining degree entropy of the log-normal distribution. We also show that degree-degree correlations are not by themselves indicative of a network's robustness for real networks. We propose an adjustment to how mutual information is measured which better encapsulates structural properties related to robustness.
With ongoing anthropogenic global warming, some of the most vulnerable components of the Earth system might become unstable and undergo a critical transition. These subsystems are the so-called tipping elements. They are believed to exhibit threshold behaviour and would, if triggered, result in severe consequences for the biosphere and human societies. Furthermore, it has been shown that climate tipping elements are not isolated entities, but interact across the entire Earth system. Therefore, this thesis aims at mapping out the potential for tipping events and feedbacks in the Earth system mainly by the use of complex dynamical systems and network science approaches, but partially also by more detailed process-based models of the Earth system.
In the first part of this thesis, the theoretical foundations are laid by the investigation of networks of interacting tipping elements. For this purpose, the conditions for the emergence of global cascades are analysed against the structure of paradigmatic network types such as Erdös-Rényi, Barabási-Albert, Watts-Strogatz and explicitly spatially embedded networks. Furthermore, micro-scale structures are detected that are decisive for the transition of local to global cascades. These so-called motifs link the micro- to the macro-scale in the network of tipping elements. Alongside a model description paper, all these results are entered into the Python software package PyCascades, which is publicly available on github.
In the second part of this dissertation, the tipping element framework is first applied to components of the Earth system such as the cryosphere and to parts of the biosphere. Afterwards it is applied to a set of interacting climate tipping elements on a global scale. Using the Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) CLIMBER-2, the temperature feedbacks are quantified, which would arise if some of the large cryosphere elements disintegrate over a long span of time. The cryosphere components that are investigated are the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets. The committed temperature increase, in case the ice masses disintegrate, is on the order of an additional half a degree on a global average (0.39-0.46 °C), while local to regional additional temperature increases can exceed 5 °C. This means that, once tipping has begun, additional reinforcing feedbacks are able to increase global warming and with that the risk of further tipping events.
This is also the case in the Amazon rainforest, whose parts are dependent on each other via the so-called moisture-recycling feedback. In this thesis, the importance of drought-induced tipping events in the Amazon rainforest is investigated in detail. Despite the Amazon rainforest is assumed to be adapted to past environmental conditions, it is found that tipping events sharply increase if the drought conditions become too intense in a too short amount of time, outpacing the adaptive capacity of the Amazon rainforest. In these cases, the frequency of tipping cascades also increases to 50% (or above) of all tipping events. In the model that was developed in this study, the southeastern region of the Amazon basin is hit hardest by the simulated drought patterns. This is also the region that already nowadays suffers a lot from extensive human-induced changes due to large-scale deforestation, cattle ranching or infrastructure projects.
Moreover, on the larger Earth system wide scale, a network of conceptualised climate tipping elements is constructed in this dissertation making use of a large literature review, expert knowledge and topological properties of the tipping elements. In global warming scenarios, tipping cascades are detected even under modest scenarios of climate change, limiting global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. In addition, the structural roles of the climate tipping elements in the network are revealed. While the large ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica are the initiators of tipping cascades, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) acts as the transmitter of cascades. Furthermore, in our conceptual climate tipping element model, it is found that the ice sheets are of particular importance for the stability of the entire system of investigated climate tipping elements.
In the last part of this thesis, the results from the temperature feedback study with the EMIC CLIMBER-2 are combined with the conceptual model of climate tipping elements. There, it is observed that the likelihood of further tipping events slightly increases due to the temperature feedbacks even if no further CO$_2$ would be added to the atmosphere.
Although the developed network model is of conceptual nature, it is possible with this work for the first time to quantify the risk of tipping events between interacting components of the Earth system under global warming scenarios, by allowing for dynamic temperature feedbacks at the same time.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
Droughts in tropical South America have an imminent and severe impact on the Amazon rainforest and affect the livelihoods of millions of people. Extremely dry conditions in Amazonia have been previously linked to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the adjacent tropical oceans. Although the sources and impacts of such droughts have been widely studied, establishing reliable multi-year lead statistical forecasts of their occurrence is still an ongoing challenge. Here, we further investigate the relationship between SST and rainfall anomalies using a complex network approach. We identify four ocean regions which exhibit the strongest overall SST correlations with central Amazon rainfall, including two particularly prominent regions in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic. Based on the time-dependent correlation between SST anomalies in these two regions alone, we establish a new early-warning method for droughts in the central Amazon basin and demonstrate its robustness in hindcasting past major drought events with lead-times up to 18 months.
Synchronization of large ensembles of oscillators is an omnipresent phenomenon observed in different fields of science like physics, engineering, life sciences, etc. The most simple setup is that of globally coupled phase oscillators, where all the oscillators contribute to a global field which acts on all oscillators. This formulation of the problem was pioneered by Winfree and Kuramoto. Such a setup gives a possibility for the analysis of these systems in terms of global variables. In this work we describe nontrivial collective dynamics in oscillator populations coupled via mean fields in terms of global variables. We consider problems which cannot be directly reduced to standard Kuramoto and Winfree models.
In the first part of the thesis we adopt a method introduced by Watanabe and Strogatz. The main idea is that the system of identical oscillators of particular type can be described by a low-dimensional system of global equations. This approach enables us to perform a complete analytical analysis for a special but vast set of initial conditions. Furthermore, we show how the approach can be expanded for some nonidentical systems. We apply the Watanabe-Strogatz approach to arrays of Josephson junctions and systems of identical phase oscillators with leader-type coupling.
In the next parts of the thesis we consider the self-consistent mean-field theory method that can be applied to general nonidentical globally coupled systems of oscillators both with or without noise. For considered systems a regime, where the global field rotates uniformly, is the most important one. With the help of this approach such solutions of the self-consistency equation for an arbitrary distribution of frequencies and coupling parameters can be found analytically in the parametric form, both for noise-free and noisy cases.
We apply this method to deterministic Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of spatially distributed oscillators with leader-type coupling. Furthermore, with the proposed self-consistent approach we fully characterize rotating wave solutions of noisy Kuramoto-type model with generic coupling and an ensemble of noisy oscillators with bi-harmonic coupling.
Whenever possible, a complete analysis of global dynamics is performed and compared with direct numerical simulations of large populations.
Um Extremereignisse in der Dynamik des indischen Sommermonsuns (ISM) in der geologischen Vergangenheit zu identifizieren, schlage ich einen neuartigen Ansatz basierend auf der Quantifikation von Fluktuationen in einem nichtlinearen Ähnlichkeitsmaß vor. Dieser reagiert empfindlich auf Zeitabschnitte mit deutlichen Veränderungen in der dynamischen Komplexität kurzer Zeitreihen. Ein mathematischer Zusammenhang zwischen dem neuen Maß und dynamischen Invarianten des zugrundeliegenden Systems wie fraktalen Dimensionen und Lyapunovexponenten wird analytisch hergeleitet. Weiterhin entwickle ich einen statistischen Test zur Schätzung der Signifikanz der so identifizierten dynamischen Übergänge. Die Stärken der Methode werden durch die Aufdeckung von Bifurkationsstrukturen in paradigmatischen Modellsystemen nachgewiesen, wobei im Vergleich zu den traditionellen Lyapunovexponenten eine Identifikation komplexerer dynamischer Übergänge möglich ist. Wir wenden die neu entwickelte Methode zur Analyse realer Messdaten an, um ausgeprägte dynamische Veränderungen auf Zeitskalen von Jahrtausenden in Klimaproxydaten des südasiatischen Sommermonsunsystems während des Pleistozäns aufzuspüren. Dabei zeigt sich, dass viele dieser Übergänge durch den externen Einfluss der veränderlichen Sonneneinstrahlung, sowie durch dem Klimasystem interne Einflussfaktoren auf das Monsunsystem (Eiszeitzyklen der nördlichen Hemisphäre und Einsatz der tropischenWalkerzirkulation) induziert werden. Trotz seiner Anwendbarkeit auf allgemeine Zeitreihen ist der diskutierte Ansatz besonders zur Untersuchung von kurzen Paläoklimazeitreihen geeignet. Die während des ISM über dem indischen Subkontinent fallenden Niederschläge treten, bedingt durch die zugrundeliegende Dynamik der atmosphärischen Zirkulation und topographische Einflüsse, in äußerst komplexen, raumzeitlichen Mustern auf. Ich stelle eine detaillierte Analyse der Sommermonsunniederschläge über der indischen Halbinsel vor, die auf Ereignissynchronisation (ES) beruht, einem Maß für die nichtlineare Korrelation von Punktprozessen wie Niederschlagsereignissen. Mit hierarchischen Clusteringalgorithmen identifiziere ich zunächst Regionen mit besonders kohärenten oder homogenen Monsunniederschlägen. Dabei können auch die Zeitverzögerungsmuster von Regenereignissen rekonstruiert werden. Darüber hinaus führe ich weitere Analysen auf Basis der Theorie komplexer Netzwerke durch. Diese Studien ermöglichen wertvolle Einsichten in räumliche Organisation, Skalen und Strukturen von starken Niederschlagsereignissen oberhalb der 90% und 94% Perzentilen während des ISM (Juni bis September). Weiterhin untersuche ich den Einfluss von verschiedenen, kritischen synoptischen Systemen der Atmosphäre sowie der steilen Topographie des Himalayas auf diese Niederschlagsmuster. Die vorgestellte Methode ist nicht nur geeignet, die Struktur extremer Niederschlagsereignisse zu visualisieren, sondern kann darüber hinaus über der Region atmosphärische Transportwege von Wasserdampf und Feuchtigkeitssenken auf dekadischen Skalen identifizieren.Weiterhin wird ein einfaches, auf komplexen Netzwerken basierendes Verfahren zur Entschlüsselung der räumlichen Feinstruktur und Zeitentwicklung von Monsunniederschlagsextremen während der vergangenen 60 Jahre vorgestellt.
The availability of large data sets has allowed researchers to uncover complex properties in complex systems, such as complex networks and human dynamics. A vast number of systems, from the Internet to the brain, power grids, ecosystems, can be represented as large complex networks. Dynamics on and of complex networks has attracted more and more researchers’ interest. In this thesis, first, I introduced a simple but effective dynamical optimization coupling scheme which can realize complete synchronization in networks with undelayed and delayed couplings and enhance the small-world and scale-free networks’ synchronizability. Second, I showed that the robustness of scale-free networks with community structure was enhanced due to the existence of communities in the networks and some of the response patterns were found to coincide with topological communities. My results provide insights into the relationship between network topology and the functional organization in complex networks from another viewpoint. Third, as an important kind of nodes of complex networks, human detailed correspondence dynamics was studied by both data and the model. A new and general type of human correspondence pattern was found and an interacting priority-queues model was introduced to explain it. The model can also embrace a range of realistic social interacting systems such as email and letter communication. My findings provide insight into various human activities both at the individual and network level. Fourth, I present clearly new evidence that human comment behavior in on-line social systems, a different type of interacting human dynamics, is non-Poissonian and a model based on the personal attraction was introduced to explain it. These results are helpful for discovering regular patterns of human behavior in on-line society and the evolution of the public opinion on the virtual as well as real society. Finally, there are conclusion and outlook of human dynamics and complex networks.
The recent discovery of an intricate and nontrivial interaction topology among the elements of a wide range of natural systems has altered the manner we understand complexity. For example, the axonal fibres transmitting electrical information between cortical regions form a network which is neither regular nor completely random. Their structure seems to follow functional principles to balance between segregation (functional specialisation) and integration. Cortical regions are clustered into modules specialised in processing different kinds of information, e.g. visual or auditory. However, in order to generate a global perception of the real world, the brain needs to integrate the distinct types of information. Where this integration happens, nobody knows. We have performed an extensive and detailed graph theoretical analysis of the cortico-cortical organisation in the brain of cats, trying to relate the individual and collective topological properties of the cortical areas to their function. We conclude that the cortex possesses a very rich communication structure, composed of a mixture of parallel and serial processing paths capable of accommodating dynamical processes with a wide variety of time scales. The communication paths between the sensory systems are not random, but largely mediated by a small set of areas. Far from acting as mere transmitters of information, these central areas are densely connected to each other, strongly indicating their functional role as integrators of the multisensory information. In the quest of uncovering the structure-function relationship of cortical networks, the peculiarities of this network have led us to continuously reconsider the stablished graph measures. For example, a normalised formalism to identify the “functional roles” of vertices in networks with community structure is proposed. The tools developed for this purpose open the door to novel community detection techniques which may also characterise the overlap between modules. The concept of integration has been revisited and adapted to the necessities of the network under study. Additionally, analytical and numerical methods have been introduced to facilitate understanding of the complicated statistical interrelations between the distinct network measures. These methods are helpful to construct new significance tests which may help to discriminate the relevant properties of real networks from side-effects of the evolutionary-growth processes.