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Abschied von KyotoPlus?
(2012)
Die Ergebnisse des Klimagipfels von Kopenhagen sind eine bittere
Enttäuschung für die EU. Ihr ist es nicht gelungen, ihren Führungsambitionen
beim globalen Klimaschutz gerecht zu werden und die
Konferenz zur Weichenstellung für ein rechtsverbindliches Klimaabkommen
nach 2012 zu nutzen. Damit steht die Union vor grundlegenden
strategischen Fragen zum Kurs ihrer Klimapolitik.
Klimapolitik am Ende?
(2012)
Dentro de la cuenca intermontana de Quito-Guay llabamba de Ecuador, se han identificado y analizado en este estudio, cinco depósitos coluviales inusualmente grandes de antiguos deslizamientos. El gran deslizamiento rotacional MM-5 Guayllabamba es el más extenso, con un volumen de 1183 millones de m3. Las mega avalanchas de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, MM-3 Oyacoto, y MM-4 San Francisco fueron desencadenadas originalmente por una ruptura inicial que estuvo asociada a un deslizamiento rotacional, los depósitos correspondientes tienen volúmenes entre 399 a 317 millones de m3. Finalmente, el depósito de menor volumen, el deslizamiento rotacional y caída de detritos MM-2 Batán, tiene un volumen de 8,7 millones de m3. En esta tesis, se realizó un estudio detallado de estos grandes movimientos en masa utilizando métodos neotectónicos y lito-tefrostratigráficos para comprender las condiciones geológicas y geomorfológicas de contorno que podrían ser relevantes para desencadenar estos movimientos en masa. La parte neotectónica del estudio se basó en el análisis geomorfológico cualitativo y cuantitativo de estos grandes depósitos de movimientos en masa, a través de la caracterización estructural de anticlinales ubicados al este de la subcuenca de Quito y sus flancos colapsados que constituyen las áreas de ruptura. Esta parte del análisis fue además apoyada por la aplicación de diferentes índices morfométricos para revelar procesos de evolución del paisaje forzados tectónicamente que pueden haber contribuido a la generación de movimientos en masa. La parte lito-tefrostratigráfica del estudio se basó en el análisis de las características petrográficas, geoquímicas y geocronológicas de los horizontes del suelo y de las cenizas volcánicas intercaladas, con el objetivo de restringir la cronología de los eventos individuales de movimientos en masa y su posible de correlación. Los resultados se integraron en esquemas cronoestratigráficos utilizando superficies de ruptura, relaciones transversales y de superposición de depósitos de deslizamiento y estratos posteriores para comprender los movimientos en masa en el contexto tectónico y temporal del entorno de la cuenca intermontana, así como para identificar los mecanismos desencadenantes de cada evento. El movimiento en masa MM-5 Guayllabamba es el resultado del colapso de la ladera suroeste del volcán Mojanda y fue desencadenado por la interacción de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas hace aproximadamente 0,81 Ma. El primer episodio de avalancha de escombros de los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco podría estar relacionado con condiciones tanto geológicas como morfológicas, dadas las rocas altamente fracturadas y el levantamiento del anticlinal Bellavista-Catequilla que posteriormente fue inciso al pie de la ladera por la erosión fluvial. Este primer episodio de colapso probablemente ocurrió alrededor de los 0,8 Ma. El movimiento en masa MM-2 Batán posiblemente también fue desencadenado por una combinación de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas, asociadas a una reducción de los esfuerzos litostáticos que afectaron a las formaciones Chiche y Machángara y a un aumento de los esfuerzos de cizalla durante procesos de socavación fluvial lateral en los flancos de las áreas de origen. Esto apunta a un proceso vinculado entre la erosión fluvial y los procesos de levantamiento asociados a la evolución del anticlinal El Batán-La Bota que podría haber ocurrido entre 0,5 y 0,25 Ma. La voluminosa avalancha de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, así como el segundo episodio de avalancha de escombros que generó los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco, fueron provocados por el colapso gravitacional de las formaciones Mojanda y Cangahua que se caracterizan por la intercalación de cenizas volcánicas. La falla del flanco oriental de los anticlinales probablemente estuvo asociada al incremento de la humedad disponible relacionada con las variaciones climáticas regionales del Holoceno. Los resultados de la cronología de los paleosuelos combinados con los datos cronoestratigráficos y paleoclimáticos regionales sugieren que estas avalanchas de escombros se desencadenaron entre 5 y 4 ka.
La tectónica activa ha modelado los rasgos morfológicos de la cuenca intermontana Quito-Guayllabamba. El desencadenamiento de movimientos en masa en este ambiente está asociado a rupturas en litologías del Pleistoceno (sedimentos lacustres, depósitos aluviales y volcánicos) sometidas a procesos de deformación, actividad sísmica y episodios superpuestos de variabilidad climática. El Distrito Metropolitano de Quito es parte integral de este complejo entorno y de las condiciones geológicas, climáticas y topográficas que continúan influyendo en el espacio geográfico urbano dentro de esta cuenca intermontana. La ciudad de Quito comprende el área de mayor consolidación urbana incluyendo las subcuencas de Quito y San Antonio, con una población de 2,872 millones de habitantes, lo que refleja la importancia del estudio de las amenazas geológicas y climáticas inherentes a esta región.
This study investigated the slope carbonates of two Miocene carbonate systems: the Maltese Islands (in the Central Mediterranean) and the Marion Plateau (Northeastern Australia, drilled during ODP Leg 194). The aim of the study was to trace the impact of the Miocene cooling steps (events Mi1-Mi6) in these carbonate systems, especially the Mi3 event, which took place around 13.6 Ma and deeply impacted the marine oxygen isotope record. This event also profoundly impacted oceanographic and climatic patterns, eventually leading to the establishment of the modern ice-house world. In particular, East Antarctica became ice covered at that period. The rational behind the present study was to investigate the impact that this event had on shallow water systems in order to complement the deep-sea record and hence acquire a more global perspective on Miocene climate change. The Maltese Islands were investigated for trends in bulk-rock carbon and oxygen isotopes, as well as bulk-rock mineralogy, clay minerals analysis and organic geochemisty. Results showed that the mid Miocene cooling event deeply impacted sedimentation at that location by changing sedimentation from carbonate to clay-rich sediments. Moreover, it was discovered that each phase of Antarctic glaciation, not just the major mid Miocene event, resulted in higher terrigenous input on Malta. Mass accumulation rates revealed that this was linked to increased runoff during periods when Antarctica was glaciated, and thus that the carbonate sediments were “diluted” by clay-rich sediments. The model subsequently developed to explain this implies feedback from Antarctic glaciations creating cold, dense air masses that push the ITCZ Northward, thus increasing precipitation on the North African subcontinent. Increased precipitation (or stronger African monsoon) accelerated continental weathering and runoff, thus bringing more terrigenous sediment to the paleo-location of the slope sediments of Malta. Spectral analysis of carbonate content and organic matter geochemical analysis furthermore suggest that the clay-rich intervals are similar to sapropelic deposits. On the Marion Plateau, trends in oxygen and carbon isotopes were obtained by measuring Cibicidoides spp foraminifers. Moreover, carbonate content was reconstructed using a chemical method (coulometer). Results show that the mid Miocene cooling step profoundly affected this system: a major drop in accumulation rates of carbonates occurs precisely at 13.8 Ma, around the time of the East Antarctic ice sheet formation. Moreover, sedimentation changes occurred at that time, carbonate fragments coming from neritic environments becoming less abundant, planktonic foraminifer content increasing and quartz and reworked glauconite being deposited. Conversely, a surprising result is that the major N12-N14 sea-level fall occurring around 11.5 Ma did not impact the accumulation of carbonates on the slope. This was unexpected since carbonate platform are very sensitive to sea-level changes. The model developed to explain that mass accumulation rates of carbonates diminished around 13.6 Ma (Mi3 Event) instead of 11.5 Ma (N12-N14 event), suggests that oceanic currents were controlling slope carbonate deposition on the Marion Plateau prior to the mid-Miocene, and that the mid Miocene event considerably increase their strength, hence reducing the amount of carbonate being deposited on slope sites. Moreover, by combining results from deep-sea oxygen isotopes with sea-level estimates based on coastal onlaps made during Leg 194, we constrain the amplitude of the N12-N14 sea-level fall to 90 meters. When integrating isotopic results from this study, this amplitude is lowered to 70 meters. A general conclusion of this work is that the mid Miocene climatic shift did impact carbonate systems, at least at the two locations studied. However, the nature of this response was highly dependant on the regional settings, in particular the presence of land mass (Malta) and the absence of a barrier to shelter from the effects of open ocean (Marion Plateau).
Einleitung
(2012)
In diesem einleitenden Beitrag des Themenschwerpunktes wird der
Hintergrund der internationalen Klimaverhandlungen erläutert und
die Ergebnisse des Kopenhagen-Akkords vorgestellt. Angesichts des
Scheiterns der Kopenhagener Konferenz muss die zeitnahe Schließung
eines rechtlich bindenden, globalen Klimaabkommens als unwahrscheinlich
gelten. Die Klimapolitik wird zukünftig verstärkt auf nationalstaatlicher
und transnationaler Ebene erfolgen.
Die Zivilgesellschaft hat dazu beigetragen, dass die Klimakonferenz in
Kopenhagen zu einem Medienereignis wurde. Fernab großer Demonstrationen
haben Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) seit Jahren
einen guten Zugang zu den internationalen Klimaverhandlungen. Am
Beispiel von Chile wird gezeigt, wie Nichtregierungsorganisationen
durch professionellen Lobbyismus ihre Positionen in politische Prozesse
einspeisen. Sie befinden sich in einem Spannungsfeld von Kooperation
und Instrumentalisierung durch politische Entscheidungsträger.
The lakes of the East African Rift System (EARS) have been intensively studied to better understand the influence of climate change on hydrological systems. The exceptional sensitivity of these rift lakes, however, is both a challenge and an opportunity when trying to reconstruct past climate changes from changes in the hydrological budget of lake basins on timescales 100 to 104 years. On one hand, differences in basin geometrics (shape, area, volume, depth), catchment rainfall distributions and varying erosion-deposition rates complicate regional interpretation of paleoclimate information from lacustrine sediment proxies. On the other hand, the sensitivity of rift lakes often provides paleoclimate records of excellent quality characterized by a high signal-to-noise ratio. This study aims at better understanding of the climate-proxy generating process in rift lakes by parameterizing the geomorphological and hydroclimatic conditions of a particular site providing a step towards the establishment of regional calibrations of transfer functions for climate reconstructions. The knowledge of the sensitivity of a lake basin to climate change furthermore is crucial for a better assessment of the probability of catastrophic changes in the future, which bear risks for landscapes, ecosystems, and organisms of all sorts, including humans. Part 1 of this thesis explores the effect of the morphology and the effective moisture of a lake catchment. The availability of digital elevation models (DEM) and gridded climate data sets facilitates the comparison of the morphological and hydroclimatic conditions of rift lakes. I used the hypsometric integral (HI) calculated from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to describe the morphology of ten lake basins in Kenya and Ethiopia. The aridity index (AI) describing the difference in the precipitation/evaporation balance within a catchment was used to compare the hydroclimatic of these basins. Correlating HI and AI with published Holocene lake-level variations revealed that lakes responding sensitively to relatively moderate climate change are typically graben shaped and characterized by a HI between 0.23-0.30, and relatively humid conditions with AI >1. These amplifier lakes, a term first introduced but not fully parameterized by Alayne Street-Perrott in the early 80s, are unexceptionally located in the crest of the Kenyan and Ethiopian domes. The non-amplifier lakes in the EARS either have lower HI 0.13-0.22 and higher AI (>1) or higher HI (0.31-0.37) and low AI (<1), reflecting pan-shaped morphologies with more arid hydroclimatic conditions. Part 2 of this work addresses the third important factor to be considered when using lake-level and proxy records to unravel past climate changes in the EARS: interbasin connectivity and groundwater flow through faulted and porous subsurface lithologies in a rift setting. First, I have compiled the available hydrogeological data including lithology, resistivity and water-well data for the adjacent Naivasha and Elmenteita-Nakuru basins in the Central Kenya Rift. Using this subsurface information and established records of lake-level decline at the last wet-dry climate transitions, i.e., the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, 15 to 5 kyr BP), I used a linear decay model to estimate typical groundwater flow between the two basins. The results suggest a delayed response of the groundwater levels of ca. 5 kyrs if no recharge of groundwater occurs during the wet-dry transition, whereas the lag is 2-2.7 kyrs only using the modern recharge of ca. 0.52 m/yr. The estimated total groundwater flow from higher Lake Naivasha (1,880 m a.s.l. during the AHP) to Nakuru-Elmenteita (1,770 m) was 40 cubic kilometers. The unexpectedly large volume, more than half of the volume of the paleo-Lake Naivasha during the Early Holocene, emphasizes the importance of groundwater in hydrological modeling of paleo-lakes in rifts. Moreover, the subsurface connectivity of rift lakes also causes a significant lag time to the system introducing a nonlinear component to the system that has to be considered while interpreting paleo-lake records. Part 3 of this thesis investigated the modern intraseasonal precipitation variability within eleven lake basins discussed in the first section of the study excluding Lake Victoria and including Lake Tana. Remotely sensed rainfall estimates (RFE) from FEWS NET for 1996-2010, are used for the, March April May (MAM) July August September (JAS), October November (ON) and December January February (DJF). The seasonal precipitation are averaged and correlated with the prevailing regional and local climatic mechanisms. Results show high variability with Biennial to Triennial precipitation patterns. The spatial distribution of precipitation in JAS are linked to the onset and strength of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics. while in ON they are related to the strength of Positive ENSO and IOD phases This study describes the influence of graben morphologies, extreme climate constrasts within catchments and basins connectivity through faults and porous lithologies on rift lakes. Hence, it shows the importance of a careful characterization of a rift lake by these parameters prior to concluding from lake-level and proxy records to climate changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the exceptional sensitivity of rift lakes to relatively moderate climate change and its consequences for water availability to the biosphere including humans.