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This thesis presents investigations on sediments from two African lakes which have been recording changes in their surrounding environmental and climate conditions since more than 200,000 years. Focus of this work is the time of the last Glacial and the Holocene (the last ~100,000 years before present [in the following 100 kyr BP]). One important precondition for this kind of research is a good understanding of the present ecosystems in and around the lakes and of the sediment formation under modern climate conditions. Both studies therefore include investigations on the modern environment (including organisms, soils, rocks, lake water and sediments). A 90 m long sediment sequence was investigated from Lake Tswaing (north-eastern South Africa) using geochemical analyses. These investigations document alternating periods of high detrital input and low (especially autochthonous) organic matter content and periods of low detrital input, carbonatic or evaporitic sedimentation and high autochthonous organic matter content. These alternations are interpreted as changes between relatively humid and arid conditions, respectively. Before c. 75 kyr BP, they seem to follow changes in local insolation whereas afterwards they appear to be acyclic and are probably caused by changes in ocean circulation and/or in the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Today, these factors have main influence on precipitation in this area where rainfall occurs almost exclusively during austral summer. All modern organisms were analysed for their biomarker and bulk organic and compound-specific stable carbon isotope composition. The same investigations on sediments from the modern lake floor document the mixed input of the investigated individual organisms and reveal additional influences by methanotrophic bacteria. A comparison of modern sediment characteristics with those of sediments covering the time 14 to 2 kyr BP shows changes in the productivity of the lake and the surrounding vegetation which are best explained by changes in hydrology. More humid conditions are indicated for times older than 10 kyr BP and younger than 7.5 kyr BP, whereas arid conditions prevailed in between. These observations agree with the results from sediment composition and indications from other climate archives nearby. The second lake study deals with Lake Challa, a small, deep crater lake on the foot of Mount Kilimanjaro. In this lake form mm-scale laminated sediments which were analyses with micro-XRF scanning for changes in the element composition. By comparing these results with investigations on thin sections, results from ongoing sediment trap studies, meteorological data, and investigations on the surrounding rocks and soils, I develop a model for seasonal variability in the limnology and sedimentation of Lake Challa. The lake appears to be stratified during the warm rain seasons (October – December and March – May) during which detrital material is delivered to the lake and carbonates precipitate. On the lake floor forms a dark lamina with high contents of Fe and Ti and high Ca/Al and low Mn/Fe ratios. Diatoms bloom during the cool and windy season (June – September) when mixing down to c. 60 m depth provides easily bio-available nutrients. Contemporaneously, Fe and Mn-oxides are precipitating which cause high Mn/Fe ratios in the light diatom-rich laminae of the sediments. Trends in the Mn/Fe ratio of the sediments are interpreted to reflect changes in the intensity or duration of seasonal mixing in Lake Challa. This interpretation is supported by parallel changes in the organic matter and biogenic silica content observed in the 22 m long profile recovered from Lake Challa. This covers the time of the last 25 kyr BP. It documents a transition around 16 kyr BP from relatively well-mixed conditions with high detrital input during glacial times to stronger stratified conditions which are probably related to increasing lake levels in Challa and generally more humid conditions in East Africa. Intensified mixing is recorded for the time of the Younger Dryas and the period between 11.4 and 10.7 kyr BP. For these periods, reduced intensity of the SW monsoon and intensified NE monsoon are reported from archives of the Indian-Asian Monsoon region, arguing for the latter as a probable source for wind mixing in Lake Challa. This connection is probably also responsible for contemporaneous events in the Mn/Fe ratios of the Lake Challa sediments and in other records of northern hemisphere monsoon intensity during the Holocene and underlines the close interaction of global low latitude atmospheric circulation.
In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant.
The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021-2050) and far-term period (2071-2100) with reference to 1976-2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021-2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture.
While Africa’s lacustrine gastropod fauna, in particular of Lake Tanganyika, has received much attention, the continent’s riverine malacofauna has long been neglected. Pseudocleopatra is a relatively poorly known paludomid gastropod genus with species found throughout the lower reaches of the West African Volta and Congo rivers. In the course of ongoing systematic revisions of African paludomids, we present here a morphometric analysis and revision of the recent species assigned to the genus, i.e., P. togoensis, P. voltana, P. dartevellei and P. bennikei, to improve taxonomic acuity for this group. We use available museum material for geometric morphometrics, multivariate ratio analysis and comparisons of radular and opercular characters. Our results demonstrate that the four recent species of Pseudocleopatra are clearly distinguishable on the basis of ratios of shell measurements as well as radular and opercular characters. Pseudocleopatra has generic-level synapomorphies including: concentric opercula with relatively large paucispiral nuclei, and rachidian radular teeth with usually 13–20 cusps. On the basis of this characterisation, the nominal species Cleopatra broecki is transferred to Pseudocleopatra. Additionally, the nominal taxon P. bennikei is synonymized with P. broecki n. comb. The phylogenetic relationships of Pseudocleopatra are currently unknown, but the observed tendency of some fossil taxa assigned to Pseudocleopatra towards thalassoidism, i.e., the resemblance to marine gastropods, has led to the hypothesis that some of the thalassoid endemics in Lake Tanganyika may have originated from or be related to Pseudocleopatra. Should this hypothesis be correct, which is in need of testing by molecular genetic methods when suitable samples become available, Pseudocleopatra may play a crucial role in understanding of the evolution of thalassoidism in African Paludomidae.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
In der vorliegenden Arbeit analysiert Yann Wernert die Rolle der Afrikanischen Union im Rahmen von Regionalkonflikten in Afrika. Dabei wird insbesondere Wert auf die konkrete Vorgehensweise der Afrikanischen Union in den jeweiligen Konflikten gelegt. Untersucht wird der Bürgerkrieg in Somalia sowie die Versuche seitens der internationalen Gemeinschaft, eine stabile politische Ordnung wieder aufzubauen. Ebenfalls analysiert wird der Darfur-Konflikt im Sudan und die Möglichkeiten, den regelmäßig stattfindenden Massakern Einhalt zu gebieten. Der Untersuchungszeitraum erstreckt sich von 2003 bis 2007.
Groundwater is critical in supporting current and future reliable water supply throughout Africa. Although continental maps of groundwater storage and recharge have been developed, we currently lack a clear understanding on how the controls on groundwater recharge vary across the entire continent. Reviewing the existing literature, we synthesize information on reported groundwater recharge controls in Africa. We find that 15 out of 22 of these controls can be characterised using global datasets. We develop 11 descriptors of climatic, topographic, vegetation, soil and geologic properties using global datasets, to characterise groundwater recharge controls in Africa. These descriptors cluster Africa into 15 Recharge Landscape Units for which we expect recharge controls to be similar. Over 80% of the continents land area is organized by just nine of these units. We also find that aggregating the Units by similarity into four broader Recharge Landscapes (Desert, Dryland, Wet tropical and Wet tropical forest) provides a suitable level of landscape organisation to explain differences in ground-based long-term mean annual recharge and recharge ratio (annual recharge / annual precipitation) estimates. Furthermore, wetter Recharge Landscapes are more efficient in converting rainfall to recharge than drier Recharge Landscapes as well as having higher annual recharge rates. In Dryland Recharge Landscapes, we found that annual recharge rates largely varied according to mean annual precipitation, whereas recharge ratio estimates increase with increasing monthly variability in P-PET. However, we were unable to explain why ground based estimates of recharge signatures vary across other Recharge Landscapes, in which there are fewer ground based recharge estimates, using global datasets alone. Even in dryland regions, there is still considerable unexplained variability in the estimates of annual recharge and recharge ratio, stressing the limitations of global datasets for investigating ground-based information.
Cobras are among the most widely known venomous snakes, and yet their taxonomy remains incompletely understood, particularly in Africa. Here, we use a combination of mitochondrial and nuclear gene sequences and morphological data to diagnose species limits within the African forest cobra, Naja (Boulengerina) melanoleuca. Mitochondrial DNA sequences reveal deep divergences within this taxon. Congruent patterns of variation in mtDNA, nuclear genes and morphology support the recognition of five separate species, confirming the species status of N. subfulva and N. peroescobari, and revealing two previously unnamed West African species, which are described as new: Naja (Boulengerina) guineensis sp. nov. Broadley, Trape, Chirio, Ineich & Wuster, from the Upper Guinea forest of West Africa, and Naja (Boulengerina) savannula sp. nov. Broadley, Trape, Chirio & Wuster, a banded form from the savanna-forest mosaic of the Guinea and Sudanian savannas of West Africa. The discovery of cryptic diversity in this iconic group highlights our limited understanding of tropical African biodiversity, hindering our ability to conserve it effectively.