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Institute
The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods.
Nonlinear detection of paleoclimate-variability transitions possibly related to human evolution
(2011)
Potential paleoclimatic driving mechanisms acting on human evolution present an open problem of cross-disciplinary scientific interest. The analysis of paleoclimate archives encoding the environmental variability in East Africa during the past 5 Ma has triggered an ongoing debate about possible candidate processes and evolutionary mechanisms. In this work, we apply a nonlinear statistical technique, recurrence network analysis, to three distinct marine records of terrigenous dust flux. Our method enables us to identify three epochs with transitions between qualitatively different types of environmental variability in North and East Africa during the (i) Middle Pliocene (3.35-3.15 Ma B. P.), (ii) Early Pleistocene (2.25-1.6 Ma B. P.), and (iii) Middle Pleistocene (1.1-0.7 Ma B. P.). A deeper examination of these transition periods reveals potential climatic drivers, including (i) large-scale changes in ocean currents due to a spatial shift of the Indonesian throughflow in combination with an intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation, (ii) a global reorganization of the atmospheric Walker circulation induced in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean, and (iii) shifts in the dominating temporal variability pattern of glacial activity during the Middle Pleistocene, respectively. A reexamination of the available fossil record demonstrates statistically significant coincidences between the detected transition periods and major steps in hominin evolution. This result suggests that the observed shifts between more regular and more erratic environmental variability may have acted as a trigger for rapid change in the development of humankind in Africa.
Shallow inland water bodies in Malawi continue to be threatened by various environmental challenges despite their importance to the fisheries industry. Due to the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, disentangling the effect of the two may be a complicated process. The littoral zone of most water bodies is important in environmental reconstructions including pollution and lake level monitoring. This study used a littoral zone, transect-based approach employing multi-proxy palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct recent environmental change (ca. 100 yrs.) in Lake Malombe in the Malawi Rift, East Africa. The results of the study could inform fisheries management in Lake Malombe, which experienced a catastrophic decline in fish stocks. Results support documentary evidence for the complete desiccation of the lake less than 100 years ago. Subsequently, there is evidence for accelerated eutrophication in the recent past. In light of these results, it is concluded that transect sampling approaches rather than relying on single core measurements, and the need for careful consideration of the types of proxy, are significant considerations in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.
This study examines patterns of climate variability by mapping shoreline changes between 1973 and 2008 for two shallow lakes in Malawi, East Africa. Multi-temporal LANDSAT data covering eight different years within the period of investigation were utilised for lake-area mapping, using image classification techniques. The approach was verified using simple comparisons with local rainfall data and satellite altimetry data. Results indicated that the lake areas varied between the different years investigated and that, although the lakes were affected by the same climate-forcing mechanisms, the individual basin characteristics had a critical effect on their responses. The most likely drivers for the climate-related shoreline variations are the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), causing synchronous changes to the water levels in both lakes, albeit showing differences in climate signal amplification.
Semi-automated detection of annual laminae (varves) in lake sediments using a fuzzy logic algorithm
(2015)
Annual laminae (varves) in lake sediments are typically visually identified, measured and counted, although numerous attempts have been made to automate this process. The reason for the failure of most of these automated algorithms for varve counting is the complexity of the seasonal laminations, typically rich in lateral fades variations and internal heterogeneities. In the manual counting of varves, the investigator acquired and interpreted flexible numbers of complex decision criteria to understand whether a particular simple lamination is a varve or not. Fuzzy systems simulate the flexible decision making process in a computer by introducing a smooth transition between true varve and false varve. In our investigation, we use an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to detect varves on the basis of a digital image of the sediment. The results of the application of the ANFIS to laminated sediments from the Meerfelder Maar (Eifel, Germany) and from a landslide-dammed lake in the Quebrada de Cafayate of Argentina are compared with manual varve counts and possible reasons for the differences are discussed. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Using molecular genetic methods and an ancient DNA approach, we studied population and species succession of rotifers of the genus Brachionus in the Kenyan alkaline-saline crater lake Sonachi since the beginning of the 19th century as well as distribution of Brachionus haplotypes in recent and historic sediments of other lakes of the East African Rift System. The sediment core record of Lake Sonachi displays haplotypes of a distinct evolutionary lineage in all increments. Populations were dominated by a single mitochondrial haplotype for a period of 150 years, and two putatively intraspecific turnovers in dominance occurred. Both changes are concordant with major environmental perturbations documented by a profound visible change in sediment composition of the core. The first change was very abrupt and occurred after the deposition of volcanic ash at the beginning of the 19th century. The second change coincides with a major lake level lowstand during the 1940s. It was preceded by a period of successively declining lake level, in which two other haplotypes appeared in the lake. One of these putatively belongs to another species documented in historical and recent Kenyan lake sediments. The analysis of plankton population dynamics through historical time can reveal patterns of population persistence and turnover in relation to environmental changes.
Here we present a protocol to genetically detect diatoms in sediments of the Kenyan tropical Lake Naivasha, based on taxon-specific PCR amplification of short fragments (approximately 100 bp) of the small subunit ribosomal (SSU) gene and subsequent separation of species-specific PCR products by PCR-based denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography (DHPLC). An evaluation of amplicons differing in primer specificity to diatoms and length of the fragments amplified demonstrated that the number of different diatom sequence types detected after cloning of the PCR products critically depended on the specificity of the primers to diatoms and the length of the amplified fragments whereby shorter fragments yielded more species of diatoms. The DHPLC was able to discriminate between very short amplicons based on the sequence difference, even if the fragments were of identical length and if the amplicons differed only in a small number of nucleotides. Generally, the method identified the dominant sequence types from mixed amplifications. A comparison with microscopic analysis of the sediment samples revealed that the sequence types identified in the molecular assessment corresponded well with the most dominant species. In summary, the PCR-based DHPLC protocol offers a fast, reliable and cost-efficient possibility to study DNA from sediments and other environmental samples with unknown organismic content, even for very short DNA fragments.
The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level.
Despite more than half a century of hominin fossil discoveries in eastern Africa, the regional environmental context of hominin evolution and dispersal is not well established due to the lack of continuous palaeoenvironmental records from one of the proven habitats of early human populations, particularly for the Pleistocene epoch. Here we present a 620,000-year environmental record from Chew Bahir, southern Ethiopia, which is proximal to key fossil sites. Our record documents the potential influence of different episodes of climatic variability on hominin biological and cultural transformation. The appearance of high anatomical diversity in hominin groups coincides with long-lasting and relatively stable humid conditions from similar to 620,000 to 275,000 years bp (episodes 1-6), interrupted by several abrupt and extreme hydroclimate perturbations. A pattern of pronounced climatic cyclicity transformed habitats during episodes 7-9 (similar to 275,000-60,000 years bp), a crucial phase encompassing the gradual transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age technologies, the emergence of Homo sapiens in eastern Africa and key human social and cultural innovations. Those accumulative innovations plus the alignment of humid pulses between northeastern Africa and the eastern Mediterranean during high-frequency climate oscillations of episodes 10-12 (similar to 60,000-10,000 years bp) could have facilitated the global dispersal of H. sapiens.