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OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one’s own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.
Public debate about energy relations between the EU and Russia is distorted. These distortions present considerable obstacles to the development of true partnership. At the core of the conflict is a struggle for resource rents between energy producing, energy consuming and transit countries. Supposed secondary aspects, however, are also of great importance. They comprise of geopolitics, market access, economic development and state sovereignty. The European Union, having engaged in energy market liberalisation, faces a widening gap between declining domestic resources and continuously growing energy demand. Diverse interests inside the EU prevent the definition of a coherent and respected energy policy. Russia, for its part, is no longer willing to subsidise its neighbouring economies by cheap energy exports. The Russian government engages in assertive policies pursuing Russian interests. In so far, it opts for a different globalisation approach, refusing the role of mere energy exporter. In view of the intensifying struggle for global resources, Russia, with its large energy potential, appears to be a very favourable option for European energy supplies, if not the best one. However, several outcomes of the strategic game between the two partners can be imagined. Engaging in non-cooperative strategies will in the end leave all stakeholders worse-off. The European Union should therefore concentrate on securing its partnership with Russia instead of damaging it. Stable cooperation would need the acceptance that the partner may pursue his own goals, which might be different from one’s own interests. The question is, how can a sustainable compromise be found? This thesis finds that a mix of continued dialogue, a tit for tat approach bolstered by an international institutional framework and increased integration efforts appears as a preferable solution.
Is translation child's play?
(2021)
1765 and 1767 saw the publication of the German, respectively the English translation of Lomonosov's Kratkij rossijskij letopisec s rodosloviem (1760). For the very first time the European reading public could find out how Russians saw their own history. These translations testified to Russia's ascent both as an empire and as a part of European learned society, and were made by youths who wanted to further their own career and were neither professional translators nor historians. In this article, we argue that the translations of Lomonosov's Kratkij rossijskij letopisec should not be studied as an isolated act of cultural transfer but as an episode in a longer history of circulation of knowledge. We demonstrate the complexity of this circulation by reassessing the 'quality' of these translations and positioning them in that longer history of circulation of knowledge by analysing the distribution of historical concepts (Begriffe) in Lomonosov's original and its translations.
This article explores the various futures of relations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. After distilling two major drivers we construct a future compass in order to conceive of four futures of relations between the EU and Ukraine. Our scenarios aim to challenge deep-rooted assumptions on the EU’s neighbourhood with Ukraine: How will the politico-economic challenges in the European countries influence the EU’s approach towards the East? Will more EU engagement in Ukraine contribute to enduring peace? Does peace always come with stability? Which prospects does the idea of Intermarium have? Are the pivotal transformation players in Ukraine indeed oligarchs or rather small- and medium-sized entrepreneurs? After presenting our scenarios, we propose indicators to know in the years to come, along which path future relations do develop. By unearthing surprising developments we hope to provoke innovative thoughts on Eastern Europe in times of post truth societies, confrontation between states and hybrid warfare.
Gleich dem Individuum benötigen Gesellschaften Vergangenheit in erster Linie zur Selbstdefinition. Eine feste Struktur gesellschaftlich geteilter Vergangenheitsreferenzen erzeugt ein überindividuelles kollektives Gedächtnis, das soziale Rollen und Identitäten determiniert. Was aber geschieht, wenn eine Gemeinschaft ihre Vergangenheit oder wesentliche Teile dieser nicht erinnert? Am Beispiel Russlands wird dargestellt, warum tragische Ereignisse – in diesem Fall die stalinistischen Repressionen – nicht kommemoriert werden und in welcher Weise sich diese weitgehend verdrängten Erinnerungen und die defizitär ausgebildete Erinnerungskultur auf die heutige russländische Gesellschaft auswirken.
Gary Jacobsohn and Yaniv Roznai’s (2020) book Constitutional Revolution offers a sophisticated conceptual framework with a fascinating description of empirical occurrences of substantive revolutions in the practice and understanding of constitutionalism in Germany, India, Hungary, and Israel. While the conceptualization in the book and its empirical illustration clearly draw from regime transformations or substantive changes within democratic regimes, we know little about the extent to which substantive constitutional reforms are possible and meaningful in autocratic regimes. As their concept of constitutional revolution is ambiguous and requires a substantive engagement with an individual case at hand, we cannot sim- ply expect concept equivalence when expanding its use beyond a transitory or democratic context. Hence, in this contribution I ask, What constitutes a constitutional revolution in an autocratic regime? To shed light on this question, I rely on the expectation that we do not find important differences in the substance of autocratic constitutions compared to democratic constitutions. Autocratic elites, also, under- stand the possibilities of constitutional change and respond to them as they offer regime stability and simply more power, but that is not a revolution. Therefore, I argue that the substantive meaning of an amendment must be a departure from the inherent logic of the constitution, especially outside the standard procedures for autocratic ruling. Thus, in this paper I discuss the theoretical implications of a constitutional revolution under autocracy without a regime transition and provide empirical evidence from various constitutional amendments and de facto reforms in Russia. I show that a constitutional revolution is not always the most important or most discussed constitutional change—at least, not in an autocratic context. This discussion has important implications for understanding constitutionalism and autocratic stability and the largely overlooked relationship between substance and process in nondemocratic settings.
In the Shadow of Ukraine
(2022)
In 2022, India captured global attention over its response to the war in Ukraine. While calling for both parties' return to diplomacy, India abstained from several United Nations resolutions condemning Russian aggression. For a country that ostensibly subscribes to the values of democracy and territorial integrity, its response appeared frustrating and contradictory, but it is broadly consistent with its long-standing policy of non-alignment. Although India's relationship with China is increasingly contentious, New Delhi is not yet fully convinced that it is in India's interest to swing westwards. The country's relations with Russia and China are deep, complex and substantive. In addition to the military and economic benefits it derives from its connection with Russia, New Delhi and Moscow share an avowed preference for a more equal, multipolar world. India will eventually have to reflect on the extent to which it can sustain its balancing act.
Der Anstieg der Energiepreise kann zu einer länger anhaltenden Verteuerung von Gütertransporten führen. Welche Auswirkungen haben steigende Transportkosten auf die Entwicklung von Städtesystemen? Ein solcher Transportkostenanstieg hat in der Russischen Föderation nach der Preisliberalisierung 1992 real, d.h. in Relation zu den Preisen anderer Gütergruppen stattgefunden. Gleichzeitig stellt die Bevölkerungsstatistik der Russischen Föderation Daten bereit, mit deren Hilfe Hypothesen zur Entwicklung von Städtesystemen unter dem Einfluss steigender Transportkosten geprüft werden können. Diese Daten werden in der vorliegenden Arbeit umfassend ausgewertet. Den theoretischen Hintergrund liefert die Modellierung eines Städtesystems mit linearer Raumstruktur im Rahmen der Neuen Ökonomischen Geographie. Damit wird ein Werkzeug geschaffen, das auch auf weiträumige Städtesysteme mit ausgeprägter Bandstruktur angewendet werden kann. Die hier erstmals erfolgte ausführliche Erläuterung des zu Grunde liegenden Theorieansatzes versteht sich als Ergänzung der Standardlehrbücher der Raumwirtschaftstheorie. Die Ergebnisse der empirischen Untersuchung bestätigen die Prognose des Modells, dass in großflächigen Ländern bzw. Regionen mit Ähnlichkeit zur unterstellten Raumstruktur ein Anstieg der Transportkosten Konzentrationstendenzen in den Zentren befördert, während die peripheren Regionen zunehmend abgekoppelt werden.