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The ensemble Kalman filter has become a popular data assimilation technique in the geosciences. However, little is known theoretically about its long term stability and accuracy. In this paper, we investigate the behavior of an ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter applied to continuous-time filtering problems. We derive mean field limiting equations as the ensemble size goes to infinity as well as uniform-in-time accuracy and stability results for finite ensemble sizes. The later results require that the process is fully observed and that the measurement noise is small. We also demonstrate that our ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter is consistent with the classic Kalman-Bucy filter for linear systems and Gaussian processes. We finally verify our theoretical findings for the Lorenz-63 system.
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains enough water volume to raise global sea level by over 7 meters. It is a relic of past glacial climates that could be strongly affected by a warming world. Several studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the ice sheet to changes in climate, but large uncertainties in its long-term response still exist. In this thesis, a new approach has been developed and applied to modeling the GIS response to climate change. The advantages compared to previous approaches are (i) that it can be applied over a wide range of climatic scenarios (both in the deep past and the future), (ii) that it includes the relevant feedback processes between the climate and the ice sheet and (iii) that it is highly computationally efficient, allowing simulations over very long timescales. The new regional energy-moisture balance model (REMBO) has been developed to model the climate and surface mass balance over Greenland and it represents an improvement compared to conventional approaches in modeling present-day conditions. Furthermore, the evolution of the GIS has been simulated over the last glacial cycle using an ensemble of model versions. The model performance has been validated against field observations of the present-day climate and surface mass balance, as well as paleo information from ice cores. The GIS contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial is estimated to be between 0.5-4.1 m, consistent with previous estimates. The ensemble of model versions has been constrained to those that are consistent with the data, and a range of valid parameter values has been defined, allowing quantification of the uncertainty and sensitivity of the modeling approach. Using the constrained model ensemble, the sensitivity of the GIS to long-term climate change was investigated. It was found that the GIS exhibits hysteresis behavior (i.e., it is multi-stable under certain conditions), and that a temperature threshold exists above which the ice sheet transitions to an essentially ice-free state. The threshold in the global temperature is estimated to be in the range of 1.3-2.3°C above preindustrial conditions, significantly lower than previously believed. The timescale of total melt scales non-linearly with the overshoot above the temperature threshold, such that a 2°C anomaly causes the ice sheet to melt in ca. 50,000 years, but an anomaly of 6°C will melt the ice sheet in less than 4,000 years. The meltback of the ice sheet was found to become irreversible after a fraction of the ice sheet is already lost – but this level of irreversibility also depends on the temperature anomaly.
Metal halide perovskites have emerged as materials of high interest for solar energy-to-electricity conversion, and in particular, the use of mixed-ion structures has led to high power conversion efficiencies and improved stability. For this reason, it is important to develop means to obtain atomic level understanding of the photoinduced behavior of these materials including processes such as photoinduced phase separation and ion migration. In this paper, we implement a new methodology combining visible laser illumination of a mixed-ion perovskite ((FAP-bI(3))(0.85)(MAPbBr(3))(0.15)) with the element specificity and chemical sensitivity of core-level photoelectron spectroscopy. By carrying out measurements at a synchrotron beamline optimized for low X-ray fluxes, we are able to avoid sample changes due to X-ray illumination and are therefore able to monitor what sample changes are induced by visible illumination only. We find that laser illumination causes partially reversible chemistry in the surface region, including enrichment of bromide at the surface, which could be related to a phase separation into bromide- and iodide-rich phases. We also observe a partially reversible formation of metallic lead in the perovskite structure. These processes occur on the time scale of minutes during illumination. The presented methodology has a large potential for understanding light-induced chemistry in photoactive materials and could specifically be extended to systematically study the impact of morphology and composition on the photostability of metal halide perovskites.
Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007–2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 ± 0.15 °C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 ± 0.10 °C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 ± 0.05 °C and in Antarctica by 0.37 ± 0.10 °C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 ± 0.12 °C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
Hundreds of experiments have now manipulated species richness (SR) of various groups of organisms and examined how this aspect of biological diversity influences ecosystem functioning. Ecologists have recently expanded this field to look at whether phylogenetic diversity (PD) among species, often quantified as the sum of branch lengths on a molecular phylogeny leading to all species in a community, also predicts ecological function. Some have hypothesized that phylogenetic divergence should be a superior predictor of ecological function than SR because evolutionary relatedness represents the degree of ecological and functional differentiation among species. But studies to date have provided mixed support for this hypothesis. Here, we reanalyse data from 16 experiments that have manipulated plant SR in grassland ecosystems and examined the impact on above-ground biomass production over multiple time points. Using a new molecular phylogeny of the plant species used in these experiments, we quantified how the PD of plants impacts average community biomass production as well as the stability of community biomass production through time. Using four complementary analyses, we show that, after statistically controlling for variation in SR, PD (the sum of branches in a molecular phylogenetic tree connecting all species in a community) is neither related to mean community biomass nor to the temporal stability of biomass. These results run counter to past claims. However, after controlling for SR, PD was positively related to variation in community biomass over time due to an increase in the variances of individual species, but this relationship was not strong enough to influence community stability. In contrast to the non-significant relationships between PD, biomass and stability, our analyses show that SR per se tends to increase the mean biomass production of plant communities, after controlling for PD. The relationship between SR and temporal variation in community biomass was either positive, non-significant or negative depending on which analysis was used. However, the increases in community biomass with SR, independently of PD, always led to increased stability. These results suggest that PD is no better as a predictor of ecosystem functioning than SR.Synthesis. Our study on grasslands offers a cautionary tale when trying to relate PD to ecosystem functioning suggesting that there may be ecologically important trait and functional variation among species that is not explained by phylogenetic relatedness. Our results fail to support the hypothesis that the conservation of evolutionarily distinct species would be more effective than the conservation of SR as a way to maintain productive and stable communities under changing environmental conditions.
A notable uptick of interest in the stability of self-esteem has been observed over the past few years. Most researchers, however, have focused on unidimensional rather than multidimensional conceptualizations of self-esteem. The paucity of empirical research is surprising given conflicting theoretical perspectives on the stability of self-esteem. The goal of the present study was to thoroughly disentangle different conceptualizations of self-esteem and test opposing classical theories on (i) the stability and (ii) the direction of mutual influence of these different forms of self-esteem. We analysed two-year longitudinal data from participants (N=644 at T1, N=241 at T2) with an average age of 47.0years (SD=12.4). Analyses using a latent variable approach revealed that the domains of self-esteem were relatively stable in terms of rank order and mean levels. In fact, the size of the stability coefficients was comparable to that of other trait measures that have been reported in the literature and paralleled the stability observed for global self-esteem. Results did not provide support for either top-down or bottom-up effects between domain-specific and global self-esteem. These findings have important theoretical and practical implications regarding the stability and development of self-esteem in adulthood and advance the understanding of self-esteem in personality theory. (c) 2018 European Association of Personality Psychology
Building and changing a microbiome at will and maintaining it over hundreds of generations has so far proven challenging. Despite best efforts, complex microbiomes appear to be susceptible to large stochastic fluctuations. Current capabilities to assemble and control stable complex microbiomes are limited. Here, we propose a looped mass transfer design that stabilizes microbiomes over long periods of time. Five local microbiomes were continuously grown in parallel for over 114 generations and connected by a loop to a regional pool. Mass transfer rates were altered and microbiome dynamics were monitored using quantitative high-throughput flow cytometry and taxonomic sequencing of whole communities and sorted subcommunities. Increased mass transfer rates reduced local and temporal variation in microbiome assembly, did not affect functions, and overcame stochasticity, with all microbiomes exhibiting high constancy and increasing resistance. Mass transfer synchronized the structures of the five local microbiomes and nestedness of certain cell types was eminent. Mass transfer increased cell number and thus decreased net growth rates mu'. Subsets of cells that did not show net growth mu'SCx were rescued by the regional pool R and thus remained part of the microbiome. The loop in mass transfer ensured the survival of cells that would otherwise go extinct, even if they did not grow in all local microbiomes or grew more slowly than the actual dilution rate D would allow. The rescue effect, known from metacommunity theory, was the main stabilizing mechanism leading to synchrony and survival of subcommunities, despite differences in cell physiological properties, including growth rates.
Background: The standard method to treat physically active patients with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is ligament reconstruction surgery. The rehabilitation training program is very important to improve functional performance in recreational athletes following ACL reconstruction.
Objectives: The aims of this study were to compare the effects of three different training programs, eccentric training (ECC), plyometric training (PLYO), or combined eccentric and plyometric training (COMB), on dynamic balance (Y-BAL), the Lysholm Knee Scale (LKS), the return to sport index (RSI), and the leg symmetry index (LSI) for the single leg hop test for distance in elite female athletes after ACL surgery.
Materials and Methods: Fourteen weeks after rehabilitation from surgery, 40 elite female athletes (20.3 ± 3.2 years), who had undergone an ACL reconstruction, participated in a short-term (6 weeks; two times a week) training study. All participants received the same rehabilitation protocol prior to the training study. Athletes were randomly assigned to three experimental groups, ECC (n = 10), PLYO (n = 10), and COMB (n = 10), and to a control group (CON: n = 10). Testing was conducted before and after the 6-week training programs and included the Y-BAL, LKS, and RSI. LSI was assessed after the 6-week training programs only.
Results: Adherence rate was 100% across all groups and no training or test-related injuries were reported. No significant between-group baseline differences (pre-6-week training) were observed for any of the parameters. Significant group-by-time interactions were found for Y-BAL (p < 0.001, ES = 1.73), LKS (p < 0.001, ES = 0.76), and RSI (p < 0.001, ES = 1.39). Contrast analysis demonstrated that COMB yielded significantly greater improvements in Y-BAL, LKS, and RSI (all p < 0.001), in addition to significantly better performances in LSI (all p < 0.001), than CON, PLYO, and ECC, respectively.
Conclusion: In conclusion, combined (eccentric/plyometric) training seems to represent the most effective training method as it exerts positive effects on both stability and functional performance in the post-ACL-surgical rehabilitation period of elite female athletes.
Background: The standard method to treat physically active patients with anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is ligament reconstruction surgery. The rehabilitation training program is very important to improve functional performance in recreational athletes following ACL reconstruction.
Objectives: The aims of this study were to compare the effects of three different training programs, eccentric training (ECC), plyometric training (PLYO), or combined eccentric and plyometric training (COMB), on dynamic balance (Y-BAL), the Lysholm Knee Scale (LKS), the return to sport index (RSI), and the leg symmetry index (LSI) for the single leg hop test for distance in elite female athletes after ACL surgery.
Materials and Methods: Fourteen weeks after rehabilitation from surgery, 40 elite female athletes (20.3 ± 3.2 years), who had undergone an ACL reconstruction, participated in a short-term (6 weeks; two times a week) training study. All participants received the same rehabilitation protocol prior to the training study. Athletes were randomly assigned to three experimental groups, ECC (n = 10), PLYO (n = 10), and COMB (n = 10), and to a control group (CON: n = 10). Testing was conducted before and after the 6-week training programs and included the Y-BAL, LKS, and RSI. LSI was assessed after the 6-week training programs only.
Results: Adherence rate was 100% across all groups and no training or test-related injuries were reported. No significant between-group baseline differences (pre-6-week training) were observed for any of the parameters. Significant group-by-time interactions were found for Y-BAL (p < 0.001, ES = 1.73), LKS (p < 0.001, ES = 0.76), and RSI (p < 0.001, ES = 1.39). Contrast analysis demonstrated that COMB yielded significantly greater improvements in Y-BAL, LKS, and RSI (all p < 0.001), in addition to significantly better performances in LSI (all p < 0.001), than CON, PLYO, and ECC, respectively.
Conclusion: In conclusion, combined (eccentric/plyometric) training seems to represent the most effective training method as it exerts positive effects on both stability and functional performance in the post-ACL-surgical rehabilitation period of elite female athletes.
Top down or bottom up?
(2022)
Classical theoretical perspectives have implied that either global self-esteem has an impact on domain-specific self-esteem (top-down) or domain-specific self-esteem affects global self-esteem (bottom-up). The goal of the present research was to investigate whether classical top-down and bottom-up approaches could withstand a thorough test. To do so, we applied elaborate analytical methods in a four-wave longitudinal study across 6 years with preregistered hypotheses and data analyses. We analyzed data from N = 1,417 German participants (30.6% men, median of 12 to 13 years of education) with an average age of 47.0 years (SD = 12.4, range 18 to 88) at intake. Analyses using latent variable approaches for modeling intraindividual change provided evidence of top-down effects only. For example, participants with higher global self-esteem exhibited an increase in performance self-esteem but not vice versa. Our results also provided evidence of "vertical" associations between global and domain-specific self-esteem, that is, parallel development within the same time frame. In addition, the analyses revealed high rank order stability and a substantial trait component in global self-esteem and the self-esteem domains. The present findings have important theoretical and practical implications for the stability and development of self-esteem in adulthood and advance the understanding of global and domain-specific self-esteem in personality theory.