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Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here, we present a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM, ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e., upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.
Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.
Issue Despite their rather similar climatic conditions, eastern Eurasia and northern North America are largely covered by different plant functional types (deciduous or evergreen boreal forest) composed of larch or pine, spruce and fir, respectively. I propose that these deciduous and evergreen boreal forests represent alternative quasi-stable states, triggered by their different northern tree refugia that reflect the different environmental conditions experienced during the Last Glacial. Evidence This view is supported by palaeoecological and environmental evidence. Once established, Asian larch forests are likely to have stabilized through a complex vegetation-fire-permafrost soil-climate feedback system. Conclusion With respect to future forest developments, this implies that Asian larch forests are likely to be governed by long-term trajectories and are therefore largely resistant to natural climate variability on time-scales shorter than millennia. The effects of regional human impact and anthropogenic global warming might, however, cause certain stability thresholds to be crossed, meaning that irreversible transitions occur and resulting in marked consequences for ecosystem services on these human-relevant time-scales.
Climate change has a major impact on arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems as warming leads to northward treeline shifts, inducing consequences for heterotrophic organisms associated with the plant taxa. To unravel ecological dependencies, we address how long-term climatic changes have shaped the co-occurrence of plants and fungi across selected sites in Siberia. We investigated sedimentary ancient DNA from five lakes spanning the last 47,000 years, using the ITS1 marker for fungi and the chloroplast P6 loop marker for vegetation metabarcoding. We obtained 706 unique fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 243 taxa for the plants. We show higher OTU numbers in dry forest tundra as well as boreal forests compared to wet southern tundra. The most abundant fungal taxa in our dataset are Pseudeurotiaceae, Mortierella, Sordariomyceta, Exophiala, Oidiodendron, Protoventuria, Candida vartiovaarae, Pseudeurotium, Gryganskiella fimbricystis, and Tricho-sporiella cerebriformis. The overall fungal composition is explained by the plant composition as revealed by redundancy analysis. The fungal functional groups show antagonistic relationships in their climate susceptibility. The advance of woody taxa in response to past warming led to an increase in the abun-dance of mycorrhizae, lichens, and parasites, while yeast and saprotroph distribution declined. We also show co-occurrences between Salicaceae, Larix, and Alnus and their associated pathogens and detect higher mycorrhizal fungus diversity with the presence of Pinaceae. Under future warming, we can expect feedbacks between fungus composition and plant diversity changes which will affect forest advance, species diversity, and ecosystem stability in arctic regions.
This thesis investigates how the permafrost microbiota responds to global warming. In detail, the constraints behind methane production in thawing permafrost were linked to methanogenic activity, abundance and composition. Furthermore, this thesis offers new insights into microbial adaptions to the changing environmental conditions during global warming. This was assesed by investigating the potential ecological relevant functions encoded by plasmid DNA within the permafrost microbiota. Permafrost of both interglacial and glacial origin spanning the Holocene to the late Pleistocene, including Eemian, were studied during long-term thaw incubations. Furthermore, several permafrost cores of different stratigraphy, soil type and vegetation cover were used to target the main constraints behind methane production during short-term thaw simulations. Short- and long-term incubations simulating thaw with and without the addition of substrate were combined with activity measurements, amplicon and metagenomic sequencing of permanently frozen and seasonally thawed active layer. Combined, it allowed to address the following questions. i) What constraints methane production when permafrost thaws and how is this linked to methanogenic activity, abundance and composition? ii) How does the methanogenic community composition change during long-term thawing conditions? iii) Which potential ecological relevant functions are encoded by plasmid DNA in active layer soils?
The major outcomes of this thesis are as follows. i) Methane production from permafrost after long-term thaw simulation was found to be constrained mainly by the abundance of methanogens and the archaeal community composition. Deposits formed during periods of warmer temperatures and increased precipitation, (here represented by deposits from the Late Pleistocene of both interstadial and interglacial periods) were found to respond strongest to thawing conditions and to contain an archaeal community dominated by methanogenic archaea (40% and 100% of all detected archaea). Methanogenic population size and carbon density were identified as main predictors for potential methane production in thawing permafrost in short-term incubations when substrate was sufficiently available.
ii) Besides determining the methanogenic activity after long-term thaw, the paleoenvironmental conditions were also found to influence the response of the methanogenic community composition. Substantial shifts within methanogenic community structure and a drop in diversity were observed in deposits formed during warmer periods, but not in deposits from stadials, when colder and drier conditions occurred. Overall, a shift towards a dominance of hydrogenotrophic methanogens was observed in all samples, except for the oldest interglacial deposits from the Eemian, which displayed a potential dominance of acetoclastic methanogens. The Eemian, which is discussed to serve as an analogue to current climate conditions, contained highly active methanogenic communities. However, all potential limitation of methane production after permafrost thaw, it means methanogenic community structure, methanogenic population size, and substrate pool might be overcome after permafrost had thawed on the long-term. iii) Enrichments with soil from the seasonally thawed active layer revealed that its plasmid DNA (‘metaplasmidome’) carries stress-response genes. In particular it encoded antibiotic resistance genes, heavy metal resistance genes, cold shock proteins and genes encoding UV-protection. Those are functions that are directly involved in the adaptation of microbial communities to stresses in polar environments. It was further found that metaplasmidomes from the Siberian active layer originate mainly from Gammaproteobacteria. By applying enrichment cultures followed by plasmid DNA extraction it was possible to obtain a higher average contigs length and significantly higher recovery of plasmid sequences than from extracting plasmid sequences from metagenomes. The approach of analyzing ‘metaplasmidomes’ established in this thesis is therefore suitable for studying the ecological role of plasmids in polar environments in general.
This thesis emphasizes that including microbial community dynamics have the potential to improve permafrost-carbon projections. Microbially mediated methane release from permafrost environments may significantly impact future climate change. This thesis identified drivers of methanogenic composition, abundance and activity in thawing permafrost landscapes. Finally, this thesis underlines the importance to study how the current warming Arctic affects microbial communities in order to gain more insight into microbial response and adaptation strategies.
Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30 degrees N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Woody plants are expanding into the Arctic in response to the warming climate. The impact on arctic plant communities is not well understood due to the limited knowledge about plant assembly rules.
Records of past plant diversity over long time series are rare. Here, we applied sedimentary ancient DNA metabarcoding targeting the P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL gene to a sediment record from Lake Ilirney (central Chukotka, Far Eastern Russia) covering the last 28 thousand years.
Our results show that forb-rich steppe-tundra and dwarf-shrub tundra dominated during the cold climate before 14 ka, while deciduous erect-shrub tundra was abundant during the warm period since 14 ka. Larix invasion during the late Holocene substantially lagged behind the likely warmest period between 10 and 6 ka, where the vegetation biomass could be highest.
We reveal highest richness during 28-23 ka and a second richness peak during 13-9 ka, with both periods being accompanied by low relative abundance of shrubs. During the cold period before 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically clustered, suggesting low genetic divergence in the assemblages despite the great number of species. This probably originates from environmental filtering along with niche differentiation due to limited resources under harsh environmental conditions. In contrast, during the warmer period after 14 ka, rich plant assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed.
This results from a high number of species which were found to harbor high genetic divergence, likely originating from an erratic recruitment process in the course of warming. Some of our evidence may be of relevance for inferring future arctic plant assembly rules and diversity changes. By analogy to the past, we expect a lagged response of tree invasion. Plant richness might overshoot in the short term; in the long-term, however, the ongoing expansion of deciduous shrubs will eventually result in a phylogenetically more diverse community.
As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12-8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8-2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region.
We report the first high-resolution (20-50 years) mid- to late Holocene pollen records from Lake Teletskoye, the largest lake in the Altai Mountains, in south-eastern West Siberia. Generally, the mid- to late Holocene (the last 4250 years) vegetation of the north-eastern Altai, as recorded in two studied sediment cores, is characterised by Siberian pine-spruce-fir forests that are similar to those of the present day. A relatively cool and dry interval with July temperatures lower than those of today occurred between 3.9 and 3.6 ka BP. The widespread distribution of open, steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae reflects maximum deforestation during this interval. After ca. 3.5 ka BP, the coniferous mountain taiga spread significantly, with maximum woody coverage and taiga biome scores between ca. 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP. This coincides well with the highest July temperature (approximately 1 degrees C higher than today) intervals. A short period of cooling about 13-1.4 ka BP could have been triggered by the increased volcanic activity recorded across the Northern Hemisphere. A new period of cooling started around 1100-1150 CE, with the minimum July temperatures occurring between 1450 and 1800 CE. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost inundated since the last glacial maximum is degrading, potentially releasing trapped or stabilized greenhouse gases, but few observations of the depth of ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) below the seafloor exist for most of the arctic continental shelf. We use spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from the dispersion curves of surface waves, for estimating the thickness of the sediment overlying the IBP. Peaks in spectral ratios modeled for three-layered 1-D systems correspond with varying thickness of the unfrozen sediment. Seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, Siberia. We derive depths of the IBP between 3.7 and 20.7m15%, increasing with distance from the shoreline. Correspondence between expected permafrost distribution, modeled response, and observational data suggests that the method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment.