Refine
Year of publication
Document Type
- Article (43)
- Doctoral Thesis (23)
- Postprint (12)
- Monograph/Edited Volume (5)
- Working Paper (4)
- Conference Proceeding (3)
- Habilitation Thesis (1)
- Preprint (1)
Keywords
- machine learning (92) (remove)
Institute
- Hasso-Plattner-Institut für Digital Engineering GmbH (21)
- Institut für Biochemie und Biologie (12)
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (8)
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (8)
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (7)
- Hasso-Plattner-Institut für Digital Engineering gGmbH (6)
- Department Linguistik (5)
- Fachgruppe Betriebswirtschaftslehre (5)
- Fachgruppe Volkswirtschaftslehre (5)
- Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät (5)
Abstract
In recent years, feedforward neural networks (NNs) have been successfully applied to reconstruct global plasmasphere dynamics in the equatorial plane. These neural network‐based models capture the large‐scale dynamics of the plasmasphere, such as plume formation and erosion of the plasmasphere on the nightside. However, their performance depends strongly on the availability of training data. When the data coverage is limited or non‐existent, as occurs during geomagnetic storms, the performance of NNs significantly decreases, as networks inherently cannot learn from the limited number of examples. This limitation can be overcome by employing physics‐based modeling during strong geomagnetic storms. Physics‐based models show a stable performance during periods of disturbed geomagnetic activity if they are correctly initialized and configured. In this study, we illustrate how to combine the neural network‐ and physics‐based models of the plasmasphere in an optimal way by using data assimilation. The proposed approach utilizes advantages of both neural network‐ and physics‐based modeling and produces global plasma density reconstructions for both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic activity, including extreme geomagnetic storms. We validate the models quantitatively by comparing their output to the in‐situ density measurements from RBSP‐A for an 18‐month out‐of‐sample period from June 30, 2016 to January 01, 2018 and computing performance metrics. To validate the global density reconstructions qualitatively, we compare them to the IMAGE EUV images of the He+ particle distribution in the Earth's plasmasphere for a number of events in the past, including the Halloween storm in 2003.
A review of source models to further the understanding of the seismicity of the Groningen field
(2022)
The occurrence of felt earthquakes due to gas production in Groningen has initiated numerous studies and model attempts to understand and quantify induced seismicity in this region. The whole bandwidth of available models spans the range from fully deterministic models to purely empirical and stochastic models. In this article, we summarise the most important model approaches, describing their main achievements and limitations. In addition, we discuss remaining open questions and potential future directions of development.
As a result of CMOS scaling, radiation-induced Single-Event Effects (SEEs) in electronic circuits became a critical reliability issue for modern Integrated Circuits (ICs) operating under harsh radiation conditions. SEEs can be triggered in combinational or sequential logic by the impact of high-energy particles, leading to destructive or non-destructive faults, resulting in data corruption or even system failure. Typically, the SEE mitigation methods are deployed statically in processing architectures based on the worst-case radiation conditions, which is most of the time unnecessary and results in a resource overhead. Moreover, the space radiation conditions are dynamically changing, especially during Solar Particle Events (SPEs). The intensity of space radiation can differ over five orders of magnitude within a few hours or days, resulting in several orders of magnitude fault probability variation in ICs during SPEs. This thesis introduces a comprehensive approach for designing a self-adaptive fault resilient multiprocessing system to overcome the static mitigation overhead issue. This work mainly addresses the following topics: (1) Design of on-chip radiation particle monitor for real-time radiation environment detection, (2) Investigation of space environment predictor, as support for solar particle events forecast, (3) Dynamic mode configuration in the resilient multiprocessing system. Therefore, according to detected and predicted in-flight space radiation conditions, the target system can be configured to use no mitigation or low-overhead mitigation during non-critical periods of time. The redundant resources can be used to improve system performance or save power. On the other hand, during increased radiation activity periods, such as SPEs, the mitigation methods can be dynamically configured appropriately depending on the real-time space radiation environment, resulting in higher system reliability. Thus, a dynamic trade-off in the target system between reliability, performance and power consumption in real-time can be achieved. All results of this work are evaluated in a highly reliable quad-core multiprocessing system that allows the self-adaptive setting of optimal radiation mitigation mechanisms during run-time. Proposed methods can serve as a basis for establishing a comprehensive self-adaptive resilient system design process. Successful implementation of the proposed design in the quad-core multiprocessor shows its application perspective also in the other designs.
Modern biological analysis techniques supply scientists with various forms of data. One category of such data are the so called "expression data". These data indicate the quantities of biochemical compounds present in tissue samples. Recently, expression data can be generated at a high speed. This leads in turn to amounts of data no longer analysable by classical statistical techniques. Systems biology is the new field that focuses on the modelling of this information. At present, various methods are used for this purpose. One superordinate class of these methods is machine learning. Methods of this kind had, until recently, predominantly been used for classification and prediction tasks. This neglected a powerful secondary benefit: the ability to induce interpretable models. Obtaining such models from data has become a key issue within Systems biology. Numerous approaches have been proposed and intensively discussed. This thesis focuses on the examination and exploitation of one basic technique: decision trees. The concept of comparing sets of decision trees is developed. This method offers the possibility of identifying significant thresholds in continuous or discrete valued attributes through their corresponding set of decision trees. Finding significant thresholds in attributes is a means of identifying states in living organisms. Knowing about states is an invaluable clue to the understanding of dynamic processes in organisms. Applied to metabolite concentration data, the proposed method was able to identify states which were not found with conventional techniques for threshold extraction. A second approach exploits the structure of sets of decision trees for the discovery of combinatorial dependencies between attributes. Previous work on this issue has focused either on expensive computational methods or the interpretation of single decision trees a very limited exploitation of the data. This has led to incomplete or unstable results. That is why a new method is developed that uses sets of decision trees to overcome these limitations. Both the introduced methods are available as software tools. They can be applied consecutively or separately. That way they make up a package of analytical tools that usefully supplement existing methods. By means of these tools, the newly introduced methods were able to confirm existing knowledge and to suggest interesting and new relationships between metabolites.
Forest microclimate can buffer biotic responses to summer heat waves, which are expected to become more extreme under climate warming. Prediction of forest microclimate is limited because meteorological observation standards seldom include situations inside forests.
We use eXtreme Gradient Boosting - a Machine Learning technique - to predict the microclimate of forest sites in Brandenburg, Germany, using seasonal data comprising weather features.
The analysis was amended by applying a SHapley Additive explanation to show the interaction effect of variables and individualised feature attributions.
We evaluate model performance in comparison to artificial neural networks, random forest, support vector machine, and multi-linear regression.
After implementing a feature selection, an ensemble approach was applied to combine individual models for each forest and improve robustness over a given single prediction model.
The resulting model can be applied to translate climate change scenarios into temperatures inside forests to assess temperature-related ecosystem services provided by forests.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.
Averting today's loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services can be achieved through conservation efforts, especially of keystone species. Giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis) play an important role in sustaining Africa's ecosystems, but are 'vulnerable' according to the IUCN Red List since 2016. Monitoring an animal's behavior in the wild helps to develop and assess their conservation management. One mechanism for remote tracking of wildlife behavior is to attach accelerometers to animals to record their body movement. We tested two different commercially available high-resolution accelerometers, e-obs and Africa Wildlife Tracking (AWT), attached to the top of the heads of three captive giraffes and analyzed the accuracy of automatic behavior classifications, focused on the Random Forests algorithm. For both accelerometers, behaviors of lower variety in head and neck movements could be better predicted (i.e., feeding above eye level, mean prediction accuracy e-obs/AWT: 97.6%/99.7%; drinking: 96.7%/97.0%) than those with a higher variety of body postures (such as standing: 90.7-91.0%/75.2-76.7%; rumination: 89.6-91.6%/53.5-86.5%). Nonetheless both devices come with limitations and especially the AWT needs technological adaptations before applying it on animals in the wild. Nevertheless, looking at the prediction results, both are promising accelerometers for behavioral classification of giraffes. Therefore, these devices when applied to free-ranging animals, in combination with GPS tracking, can contribute greatly to the conservation of giraffes.
Pathogens and animal pests (P&A) are a major threat to global food security as they directly affect the quantity and quality of food. The Southern Amazon, Brazil's largest domestic region for soybean, maize and cotton production, is particularly vulnerable to the outbreak of P&A due to its (sub)tropical climate and intensive farming systems. However, little is known about the spatial distribution of P&A and the related yield losses. Machine learning approaches for the automated recognition of plant diseases can help to overcome this research gap. The main objectives of this study are to (1) evaluate the performance of Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) in classifying P&A, (2) map the spatial distribution of P&A in the Southern Amazon, and (3) quantify perceived yield and economic losses for the main soybean and maize P&A. The objectives were addressed by making use of data collected with the smartphone application Plantix. The core of the app's functioning is the automated recognition of plant diseases via ConvNets. Data on expected yield losses were gathered through a short survey included in an "expert" version of the application, which was distributed among agronomists. Between 2016 and 2020, Plantix users collected approximately 78,000 georeferenced P&A images in the Southern Amazon. The study results indicate a high performance of the trained ConvNets in classifying 420 different crop-disease combinations. Spatial distribution maps and expert-based yield loss estimates indicate that maize rust, bacterial stalk rot and the fall armyworm are among the most severe maize P&A, whereas soybean is mainly affected by P&A like anthracnose, downy mildew, frogeye leaf spot, stink bugs and brown spot. Perceived soybean and maize yield losses amount to 12 and 16%, respectively, resulting in annual yield losses of approximately 3.75 million tonnes for each crop and economic losses of US$2 billion for both crops together. The high level of accuracy of the trained ConvNets, when paired with widespread use from following a citizen-science approach, results in a data source that will shed new light on yield loss estimates, e.g., for the analysis of yield gaps and the development of measures to minimise them.
The selection of a nest site is crucial for successful reproduction of birds. Animals which re-use or occupy nest sites constructed by other species often have limited choice. Little is known about the criteria of nest-stealing species to choose suitable nesting sites and habitats. Here, we analyze breeding-site selection of an obligatory "nest-cleptoparasite", the Amur Falcon Falco amurensis. We collected data on nest sites at Muraviovka Park in the Russian Far East, where the species breeds exclusively in nests of the Eurasian Magpie Pica pica. We sampled 117 Eurasian Magpie nests, 38 of which were occupied by Amur Falcons. Nest-specific variables were assessed, and a recently developed habitat classification map was used to derive landscape metrics. We found that Amur Falcons chose a wide range of nesting sites, but significantly preferred nests with a domed roof. Breeding pairs of Eurasian Hobby Falco subbuteo and Eurasian Magpie were often found to breed near the nest in about the same distance as neighboring Amur Falcon pairs. Additionally, the occurrence of the species was positively associated with bare soil cover, forest cover, and shrub patches within their home range and negatively with the distance to wetlands. Areas of wetlands and fallow land might be used for foraging since Amur Falcons mostly depend on an insect diet. Additionally, we found that rarely burned habitats were preferred. Overall, the effect of landscape variables on the choice of actual nest sites appeared to be rather small. We used different classification methods to predict the probability of occurrence, of which the Random forest method showed the highest accuracy. The areas determined as suitable habitat showed a high concordance with the actual nest locations. We conclude that Amur Falcons prefer to occupy newly built (domed) nests to ensure high nest quality, as well as nests surrounded by available feeding habitats.
Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine.