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Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.
River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents.
Background: The patterns of benzodiazepine prescriptions in older adults are of general and scientific interest as they are not yet well understood. The aim of this study was to compare the prescription patterns of benzodiazepines in elderly people in Germany to determine the share or proportion treated by general practitioners (GP) and neuropsychiatrists (NP). Methods: This study included 31,268 and 6,603 patients between the ages of 65 and 100 with at least one benzodiazepine prescription in 2014 from GP and NP, respectively. Demographic data included age, gender, and type of health insurance coverage. The share of elderly people with benzodiazepine prescriptions was estimated in different age and disease groups for both GP and NP patients. The share of the six most commonly prescribed drugs was also calculated for each type of practice. Results: The share of people taking benzodiazepines prescribed by GP increased from 3.2% in patients aged between 65 and 69 years to 8.6% in patients aged between 90 and 100 years, whereas this share increased from 5.4% to 7.1% in those seen by NP. Benzodiazepines were frequently used by patients suffering from sleep disorders (GP: 33.9%; NP: 5.5%), depression (GP: 17.9%; NP: 29.8%), and anxiety disorders (GP: 14.5%; NP: 22.8%). Lorazepam (30.3%), oxazepam (24.7%), and bromazepam (24.3%) were the three most commonly prescribed drugs for GP patients. In contrast, lorazepam (60.4%), diazepam (14.8%), and oxazepam (11.2%) were those more frequently prescribed to NP patients. Conclusion: Prescription patterns of benzodiazepine in the elderly varied widely between GP and NP.
Based on large representative German household survey data, we compare incomes of the self-employed with those of paid employees. We find that the entrepreneurial income gap is largest for those holding a tertiary degree, but in two directions: positive for employers (self-employed with further employees) and negative for solo entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs holding a tertiary degree also face the greatest income variation. However, some solo self-employed earn more than their employed counterparts, in particular those with a university entrance degree as the highest level of education.
Bank voles can harbour Puumala virus (PUUV) and vole populations usually peak in years after beech mast. A beech mast occurred in 2014 and a predictive model indicates high vole abundance in 2015. This pattern is similar to the years 2009/2011 when beech mast occurred, bank voles multiplied and human PUUV infections increased a year later. Given similar environmental conditions in 2014/2015, increased risk of human PUUV infections in 2015 is likely. Risk management measures are recommended.
This article contributes to the debate on the use of performance information in the context of public sector performance management. Based on case studies, the authors analyze the appropriateness of the performance information provided in the newly established performance budgets of municipalities in Germany and Italy. They also examine the interest of politicians and senior managers in using such information for decision-making and monitoring within the municipal budget cycle. They find that the use of performance information is generally quite modest, and that the interest of different local actors varies to a great extent. Politicians are generally less interested in such information than top managers, particularly chief financial officers. The results are discussed by applying a theoretical framework based on institutional and legitimacy theories, and are compared with the literature on performance information use.
This essay aims at discussing the new literature on Franco-German relations during the period 1918-1930. It highlights how many works now question the idea that the Treaty of Versailles and the European order that ensued inevitably wore within themselves the seeds of a new war. On the contrary, by examining in particular the detente efforts of the Twenties, the most recent historiography often emphasizes how the inevitability of the authoritarian turn of Twenties and Thirties, which led to the Second World War, has often been exaggerated by historians and that different paths could have been undertaken.
Understanding and quantifying total economic impacts of flood events is essential for flood risk management and adaptation planning. Yet, detailed estimations of joint direct and indirect flood-induced economic impacts are rare. In this study an innovative modeling procedure for the joint assessment of short-term direct and indirect economic flood impacts is introduced. The procedure is applied to 19 economic sectors in eight federal states of Germany after the flood events in 2013. The assessment of the direct economic impacts is object-based and considers uncertainties associated with the hazard, the exposed objects and their vulnerability. The direct economic impacts are then coupled to a supply-side Input-Output-Model to estimate the indirect economic impacts. The procedure provides distributions of direct and indirect economic impacts which capture the associated uncertainties. The distributions of the direct economic impacts in the federal states are plausible when compared to reported values. The ratio between indirect and direct economic impacts shows that the sectors Manufacturing, Financial and Insurance activities suffered the most from indirect economic impacts. These ratios also indicate that indirect economic impacts can be almost as high as direct economic impacts. They differ strongly between the economic sectors indicating that the application of a single factor as a proxy for the indirect impacts of all economic sectors is not appropriate.
Germany experienced a unique rise in the level of self-employment in the first two decades following unification. Applying the nonlinear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we find that the main factors driving these changes in the overall level of self-employment are demographic developments, the shift towards service sector employment and a larger share of population holding a tertiary degree. While these factors explain most of the development in self-employment with employees and the overall level of self-employment in West Germany, their explanatory power is much lower for the stronger increase in solo self-employment and in self-employment in former socialist East Germany.