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Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
(2020)
Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.
Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.
Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.
Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
External temperature change has been shown to modify epigenetic patterns, such as DNA methylation, which regulates gene expression. DNA methylation is heritable, and as such provides a mechanism to convey environmental information to subsequent generations. Studies on epigenetic response to temperature increase are still scarce in wild mammals, even more so studies that compare tissue-specific epigenetic responses. Here, we aim to address differential epigenetic responses on a gene and gene pathway level in two organs, liver and testis. We chose these organs, because the liver is the main metabolic and thermoregulation organ, and epigenetic modifications in testis are potentially transmitted to the F2 generation. We focused on the transmission of DNA methylation changes to naive male offspring after paternal exposure to an ambient temperature increase of 10 degrees C, and investigated differential methylated regions of sons sired before and after the paternal exposure using Reduced Representation Bisulfite Sequencing. We detected both a highly tissue-specific epigenetic response, reflected in genes involved in organ-specific metabolic pathways, and a more general regulation of single genes epigenetically modified in both organs. We conclude that genomes are context-specifically differentially epigenetically regulated in response to temperature increase. These findings emphasize the epigenetic relevance in cell differentiation, which is essential for the specific function(s) of complex organs, and is represented in a diverse molecular regulation of genes and gene pathways. The results also emphasize the paternal contribution to adaptive processes.
Tre6P synthesis by TPS1 is essential for embryogenesis and postembryonic growth in Arabidopsis, and appropriate Suc signaling by Tre6P is dependent on the noncatalytic domains of TPS1. In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), TREHALOSE-6-PHOSPHATE SYNTHASE1 (TPS1) catalyzes the synthesis of the sucrose-signaling metabolite trehalose 6-phosphate (Tre6P) and is essential for embryogenesis and normal postembryonic growth and development. To understand its molecular functions, we transformed the embryo-lethal tps1-1 null mutant with various forms of TPS1 and with a heterologous TPS (OtsA) from Escherichia coli, under the control of the TPS1 promoter, and tested for complementation. TPS1 protein localized predominantly in the phloem-loading zone and guard cells in leaves, root vasculature, and shoot apical meristem, implicating it in both local and systemic signaling of Suc status. The protein is targeted mainly to the nucleus. Restoring Tre6P synthesis was both necessary and sufficient to rescue the tps1-1 mutant through embryogenesis. However, postembryonic growth and the sucrose-Tre6P relationship were disrupted in some complementation lines. A point mutation (A119W) in the catalytic domain or truncating the C-terminal domain of TPS1 severely compromised growth. Despite having high Tre6P levels, these plants never flowered, possibly because Tre6P signaling was disrupted by two unidentified disaccharide-monophosphates that appeared in these plants. The noncatalytic domains of TPS1 ensure its targeting to the correct subcellular compartment and its catalytic fidelity and are required for appropriate signaling of Suc status by Tre6P.
The biosynthesis of the molybdenum cofactor (Moco) is highly conserved among all kingdoms of life. In all molybdoenzymes containing Moco, the molybdenum atom is coordinated to a dithiolene group present in the pterin-based 6-alkyl side chain of molybdopterin (MPT). In general, the biosynthesis of Moco can be divided into four steps in in bacteria: (i) the starting point is the formation of the cyclic pyranopterin monophosphate (cPMP) from 5 '-GTP, (ii) in the second step the two sulfur atoms are inserted into cPMP leading to the formation of MPT, (iii) in the third step the molybdenum atom is inserted into MPT to form Moco and (iv) in the fourth step bis-Mo-MPT is formed and an additional modification of Moco is possible with the attachment of a nucleotide (CMP or GMP) to the phosphate group of MPT, forming the dinucleotide variants of Moco. This review presents an update on the well-characterized Moco biosynthesis in the model organism Escherichia coli including novel discoveries from the recent years.
Perovskite photovoltaic (PV) cells have demonstrated power conversion efficiencies (PCE) that are close to those of monocrystalline silicon cells; however, in contrast to silicon PV, perovskites are not limited by Auger recombination under 1-sun illumination. Nevertheless, compared to GaAs and monocrystalline silicon PV, perovskite cells have significantly lower fill factors due to a combination of resistive and non-radiative recombination losses. This necessitates a deeper understanding of the underlying loss mechanisms and in particular the ideality factor of the cell. By measuring the intensity dependence of the external open-circuit voltage and the internal quasi-Fermi level splitting (QFLS), the transport resistance-free efficiency of the complete cell as well as the efficiency potential of any neat perovskite film with or without attached transport layers are quantified. Moreover, intensity-dependent QFLS measurements on different perovskite compositions allows for disentangling of the impact of the interfaces and the perovskite surface on the non-radiative fill factor and open-circuit voltage loss. It is found that potassium-passivated triple cation perovskite films stand out by their exceptionally high implied PCEs > 28%, which could be achieved with ideal transport layers. Finally, strategies are presented to reduce both the ideality factor and transport losses to push the efficiency to the thermodynamic limit.
In classical thermodynamic processes the unavoidable presence of irreversibility, quantified by the entropy production, carries two energetic footprints: the reduction of extractable work from the optimal, reversible case, and the generation of a surplus of heat that is irreversibly dissipated to the environment. Recently it has been shown that in the quantum regime an additional quantum irreversibility occurs that is linked to decoherence into the energy basis. Here we employ quantum trajectories to construct distributions for classical heat and quantum heat exchanges, and show that the heat footprint of quantum irreversibility differs markedly from the classical case. We also quantify how quantum irreversibility reduces the amount of work that can be extracted from a state with coherences. Our results show that decoherence leads to both entropic and energetic footprints which both play an important role in the optimization of controlled quantum operations at low temperature.
In classical thermodynamics irreversibility occurs whenever a non-thermal system is brought into contact with a thermal environment. Using quantum trajectories the authors here establish two energetic footprints of quantum irreversible processes, and find that while quantum irreversibility leads to the occurrence of a quantum heat and a reduction of work production, the two are not linked in the same manner as the classical laws of thermodynamics would dictate.
Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from an expert survey
(2020)
Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit projections from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (central 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30-0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54-2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986-2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63-1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67-5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high-emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which is considered to have an exceedance likelihood of 17%. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
We search for homovalent alternatives for A, B, and X-ions in ABX(3) type inorganic halide perovskites suitable for tandem solar cell applications. We replace the conventional A-site organic cation CH3NH3, by 3 inorganic cations, Cs, K, and Rb, and the B site consists of metals; Cd, Hg, Ge, Pb, and Sn This work is built on our previous high throughput screening of hybrid perovskite materials (Kar et al 2018 J. Chem. Phys. 149, 214701). By performing a systematic screening study using Density Functional Theory (DFT) methods, we found 11 suitable candidates; 2 Cs-based, 3 K-based and 6 Rb-based that are suitable for tandem solar cell applications.
Landscapes in high northern latitudes are assumed to be highly sensitive to future global change, but the rates and long-term trajectories of changes are rather uncertain. In the boreal zone, fires are an important factor in climate-vegetation interactions and biogeochemical cycles. Fire regimes are characterized by small, frequent, low-intensity fires within summergreen boreal forests dominated by larch, whereas evergreen boreal forests dominated by spruce and pine burn large areas less frequently but at higher intensities. Here, we explore the potential of the monosaccharide anhydrides (MA) levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan to serve as proxies of low-intensity biomass burning in glacial-to-interglacial lake sediments from the high northern latitudes. We use sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn (cores PG 1351 and ICDP 5011-1), located in the far north-east of Russia, and study glacial and interglacial samples of the last 430 kyr (marine isotope stages 5e, 6, 7e, 8, 11c and 12) that had different climate and biome configurations. Combined with pollen and non-pollen palynomorph records from the same samples, we assess how far the modern relationships between fire, climate and vegetation persisted during the past, on orbital to centennial timescales. We find that MAs attached to particulates were well-preserved in up to 430 kyr old sediments with higher influxes from low-intensity biomass burning in interglacials compared to glacials. MA influxes significantly increase when summergreen boreal forest spreads closer to the lake, whereas they decrease when tundra-steppe environments and, especially, Sphagnum peatlands spread. This suggests that low-temperature fires are a typical characteristic of Siberian larch forests also on long timescales. The results also suggest that low-intensity fires would be reduced by vegetation shifts towards very dry environments due to reduced biomass availability, as well as by shifts towards peatlands, which limits fuel dryness. In addition, we observed very low MA ratios, which we interpret as high contributions of galactosan and mannosan from biomass sources other than those currently monitored, such as the moss-lichen mats in the understorey of the summergreen boreal forest. Overall, sedimentary MAs can provide a powerful proxy for fire regime reconstructions and extend our knowledge of long-term natural fire-climate-vegetation feedbacks in the high northern latitudes.
Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn.