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Earthquake catalogs are probably the most informative data source about spatiotemporal seismicity evolution. The catalog quality in one of the most active seismogenic zones in the world, Japan, is excellent, although changes in quality arising, for example, from an evolving network are clearly present. Here, we seek the best estimate for the largest expected earthquake in a given future time interval from a combination of historic and instrumental earthquake catalogs. We extend the technique introduced by Zoller et al. (2013) to estimate the maximum magnitude in a time window of length T-f for earthquake catalogs with varying level of completeness. In particular, we consider the case in which two types of catalogs are available: a historic catalog and an instrumental catalog. This leads to competing interests with respect to the estimation of the two parameters from the Gutenberg-Richter law, the b-value and the event rate lambda above a given lower-magnitude threshold (the a-value). The b-value is estimated most precisely from the frequently occurring small earthquakes; however, the tendency of small events to cluster in aftershocks, swarms, etc. violates the assumption of a Poisson process that is used for the estimation of lambda. We suggest addressing conflict by estimating b solely from instrumental seismicity and using large magnitude events from historic catalogs for the earthquake rate estimation. Applying the method to Japan, there is a probability of about 20% that the maximum expected magnitude during any future time interval of length T-f = 30 years is m >= 9.0. Studies of different subregions in Japan indicates high probabilities for M 8 earthquakes along the Tohoku arc and relatively low probabilities in the Tokai, Tonankai, and Nankai region. Finally, for scenarios related to long-time horizons and high-confidence levels, the maximum expected magnitude will be around 10.
Ausprägungen räumlicher Identität in ehemaligen sudetendeutschen Gebieten der Tschechischen Republik
(2014)
Das tschechische Grenzgebiet ist eine der Regionen in Europa, die in der Folge des Zweiten Weltkrieges am gravierendsten von Umbrüchen in der zuvor bestehenden Bevölkerungsstruktur betroffen waren. Der erzwungenen Aussiedlung eines Großteils der ansässigen Bevölkerung folgten die Neubesiedlung durch verschiedenste Zuwanderergruppen sowie teilweise langanhaltende Fluktuationen der Einwohnerschaft. Die Stabilisierung der Bevölkerung stand sodann unter dem Zeichen der sozialistischen Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftsordnung, die die Lebensweise und Raumwahrnehmung der neuen Einwohner nachhaltig prägte. Die Grenzöffnung von 1989, die politische Transformation sowie die Integration der Tschechischen Republik in die Europäische Union brachten neue demographische und sozioökonomische Entwicklungen mit sich. Sie schufen aber auch die Bedingungen dafür, sich neu und offen auch mit der spezifischen Geschichte des ehemaligen Sudetenlandes sowie mit dem Zustand der gegenwärtigen Gesellschaft in diesem Gebiet auseinanderzusetzen.
Im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit wird anhand zweier Beispielregionen untersucht, welche Raumvorstellungen und Raumbindungen bei der heute in den ehemaligen sudetendeutschen Gebieten ansässigen Bevölkerung vorhanden sind und welche Einflüsse die unterschiedlichen raumstrukturellen Bedingungen darauf ausüben. Besonderes Augenmerk wird auf die soziale Komponente der Ausprägung räumlicher Identität gelegt, das heißt auf die Rolle von Bedeutungszuweisungen gegenüber Raumelementen im Rahmen sozialer Kommunikation und Interaktion. Dies erscheint von besonderer Relevanz in einem Raum, der sich durch eine gewisse Heterogenität seiner Einwohnerschaft hinsichtlich ihres ethnischen, kulturellen beziehungsweise biographischen Hintergrundes auszeichnet. Schließlich wird ermittelt, welche Impulse unter Umständen von einer ausgeprägten räumlichen Identität für die Entwicklung des Raumes ausgehen.
Moderne Kraftfahrzeuge verfügen über eine Vielzahl an Sensoren, welche für einen reibungslosen technischen Betrieb benötigt werden. Hierzu zählen neben fahrzeugspezifischen Sensoren (wie z.B. Motordrehzahl und Fahrzeuggeschwindigkeit) auch umweltspezifische Sensoren (wie z.B. Luftdruck und Umgebungstemperatur). Durch die zunehmende technische Vernetzung wird es möglich, diese Daten der Kraftfahrzeugelektronik aus dem Fahrzeug heraus für die verschiedensten Zwecke zu verwenden.
Die vorliegende Arbeit soll einen Beitrag dazu leisten, diese neue Art an massenhaften Daten im Sinne des Konzepts der „Extended Floating Car Data“ (XFCD) als Geoinformationen nutzbar zu machen und diese für raumzeitliche Visualisierungen (zur visuellen Analyse) anwenden zu können. In diesem Zusammenhang wird speziell die Perspektive des Umwelt- und Verkehrsmonitoring betrachtet, wobei die Anforderungen und Potentiale mit Hilfe von Experteninterviews untersucht werden. Es stellt sich die Frage, welche Daten durch die Kraftfahrzeugelektronik geliefert und wie diese möglichst automatisiert erfasst, verarbeitet, visualisiert und öffentlich bereitgestellt werden können. Neben theoretischen und technischen Grundlagen zur Datenerfassung und -nutzung liegt der Fokus auf den Methoden der kartographischen Visualisierung. Dabei soll der Frage nachgegangenen werden, ob eine technische Implementierung ausschließlich unter Verwendung von Open Source Software möglich ist. Das Ziel der Arbeit bildet ein zweigliedriger Ansatz, welcher zum einen die Visualisierung für ein exemplarisch gewähltes Anwendungsszenario und zum anderen die prototypische Implementierung von der Datenerfassung im Fahrzeug unter Verwendung der gesetzlich vorgeschriebenen „On Board Diagnose“-Schnittstelle und einem Smartphone-gestützten Ablauf bis zur webbasierten Visualisierung umfasst.
Permafrost, defined as ground that is frozen for at least two consecutive years, is a distinct feature of the terrestrial unglaciated Arctic. It covers approximately one quarter of the land area of the Northern Hemisphere (23,000,000 km²). Arctic landscapes, especially those underlain by permafrost, are threatened by climate warming and may degrade in different ways, including active layer deepening, thermal erosion, and development of rapid thaw features. In Siberian and Alaskan late Pleistocene ice-rich Yedoma permafrost, rapid and deep thaw processes (called thermokarst) can mobilize deep organic carbon (below 3 m depth) by surface subsidence due to loss of ground ice. Increased permafrost thaw could cause a feedback loop of global significance if its stored frozen organic carbon is reintroduced into the active carbon cycle as greenhouse gases, which accelerate warming and inducing more permafrost thaw and carbon release. To assess this concern, the major objective of the thesis was to enhance the understanding of the origin of Yedoma as well as to assess the associated organic carbon pool size and carbon quality (concerning degradability). The key research questions were:
- How did Yedoma deposits accumulate?
- How much organic carbon is stored in the Yedoma region?
- What is the susceptibility of the Yedoma region's carbon for future decomposition?
To address these three research questions, an interdisciplinary approach, including detailed field studies and sampling in Siberia and Alaska as well as methods of sedimentology, organic biogeochemistry, remote sensing, statistical analyses, and computational modeling were applied. To provide a panarctic context, this thesis additionally includes results both from a newly compiled northern circumpolar carbon database and from a model assessment of carbon fluxes in a warming Arctic.
The Yedoma samples show a homogeneous grain-size composition. All samples were poorly sorted with a multi-modal grain-size distribution, indicating various (re-) transport processes. This contradicts the popular pure loess deposition hypothesis for the origin of Yedoma permafrost. The absence of large-scale grinding processes via glaciers and ice sheets in northeast Siberian lowlands, processes which are necessary to create loess as material source, suggests the polygenetic origin of Yedoma deposits.
Based on the largest available data set of the key parameters, including organic carbon content, bulk density, ground ice content, and deposit volume (thickness and coverage) from Siberian and Alaskan study sites, this thesis further shows that deep frozen organic carbon in the Yedoma region consists of two distinct major reservoirs, Yedoma deposits and thermokarst deposits (formed in thaw-lake basins). Yedoma deposits contain ~80 Gt and thermokarst deposits ~130 Gt organic carbon, or a total of ~210 Gt. Depending on the approach used for calculating uncertainty, the range for the total Yedoma region carbon store is ±75 % and ±20 % for conservative single and multiple bootstrapping calculations, respectively. Despite the fact that these findings reduce the Yedoma region carbon pool by nearly a factor of two compared to previous estimates, this frozen organic carbon is still capable of inducing a permafrost carbon feedback to climate warming. The complete northern circumpolar permafrost region contains between 1100 and 1500 Gt organic carbon, of which ~60 % is perennially frozen and decoupled from the short-term carbon cycle.
When thawed and reintroduced into the active carbon cycle, the organic matter qualities become relevant. Furthermore, results from investigations into Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter quality studies showed that Yedoma and thermokarst organic matter exhibit no depth-dependent quality trend. This is evidence that after freezing, the ancient organic matter is preserved in a state of constant quality. The applied alkane and fatty-acid-based biomarker proxies including the carbon-preference and the higher-land-plant-fatty-acid indices show a broad range of organic matter quality and thus no significantly different qualities of the organic matter stored in thermokarst deposits compared to Yedoma deposits. This lack of quality differences shows that the organic matter biodegradability depends on different decomposition trajectories and the previous decomposition/incorporation history. Finally, the fate of the organic matter has been assessed by implementing deep carbon pools and thermokarst processes in a permafrost carbon model. Under various warming scenarios for the northern circumpolar permafrost region, model results show a carbon release from permafrost regions of up to ~140 Gt and ~310 Gt by the years 2100 and 2300, respectively. The additional warming caused by the carbon release from newly-thawed permafrost contributes 0.03 to 0.14°C by the year 2100. The model simulations predict that a further increase by the 23rd century will add 0.4°C to global mean surface air temperatures.
In conclusion, Yedoma deposit formation during the late Pleistocene was dominated by water-related (alluvial/fluvial/lacustrine) as well as aeolian processes under periglacial conditions. The circumarctic permafrost region, including the Yedoma region, contains a substantial amount of currently frozen organic carbon. The carbon of the Yedoma region is well-preserved and therefore available for decomposition after thaw. A missing quality-depth trend shows that permafrost preserves the quality of ancient organic matter. When the organic matter is mobilized by deep degradation processes, the northern permafrost region may add up to 0.4°C to the global warming by the year 2300.
Background: Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional tense (e.g., if the man had had time, he would have...) refers to the past and the Simple conditional tense refers to the future (e.g., if the man had time, he would...). These two tenses refer to an event that may happen (irrealis).Aims: We fill in the gap of the conditional tense and provide further data to study contrasts in verb inflection for time reference. We predict that verb forms that refer to an irrealis past event (Periphrastic conditional) are more impaired than forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also predict that there are no differences between verb forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also assessed whether problems in time reference extend to individuals with non-fluent aphasia that are not typical agrammatic Broca aphasia.Methods & Procedures: A sentence completion task that included 60 sentences (20 per type) of equal length in a Conditional structure (if-sentences) was designed. We tested three sentence types: Periphrastic conditional, Simple conditional and Future. The task was administered to nine participants with non-fluent aphasia and nine age-matched non-brain-damaged participants.Outcomes & Results: The Control group scored at ceiling on the three sentence types. Participants with non-fluent aphasia were most impaired in the production of the Periphrastic conditional as compared with the Simple conditional and the Future.Conclusions: When irrealis event times are compared, past events are more impaired than future events. These results can be explained by a deficit in time reference as predicted by the PADILIH. Our data reveal that the predictions of the PADILIH also hold for non-fluent speakers who have been diagnosed with Transcortical motor aphasia.
Large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics in the Mekong Delta : present state and future prospects
(2014)
The Mekong Delta (MD) sustains the livelihood and food security of millions of people in Vietnam and Cambodia. It is known as the “rice bowl” of South East Asia and has one of the world’s most productive fisheries. Sediment dynamics play a major role for the high productivity of agriculture and fishery in the delta. However, the MD is threatened by climate change, sea level rise and unsustainable development activities in the Mekong Basin. But despite its importance and the expected threats, the understanding of the present and future sediment dynamics in the MD is very limited. This is a consequence of its large extent, the intricate system of rivers, channels and floodplains and the scarcity of observations. Thus this thesis aimed at (1) the quantification of suspended sediment dynamics and associated sediment-nutrient deposition in floodplains of the MD, and (2) assessed the impacts of likely future boundary changes on the sediment dynamics in the MD. The applied methodology combines field experiments and numerical simulation to quantify and predict the sediment dynamics in the entire delta in a spatially explicit manner. The experimental part consists of a comprehensive procedure to monitor quantity and spatial variability of sediment and associated nutrient deposition for large and complex river floodplains, including an uncertainty analysis. The measurement campaign applied 450 sediment mat traps in 19 floodplains over the MD for a complete flood season. The data also supports quantification of nutrient deposition in floodplains based on laboratory analysis of nutrient fractions of trapped sedimentation.The main findings are that the distribution of grain size and nutrient fractions of suspended sediment are homogeneous over the Vietnamese floodplains. But the sediment deposition within and between ring dike floodplains shows very high spatial variability due to a high level of human inference. The experimental findings provide the essential data for setting up and calibration of a large-scale sediment transport model for the MD. For the simulation studies a large scale hydrodynamic model was developed in order to quantify large-scale floodplain sediment dynamics. The complex river-channel-floodplain system of the MD is described by a quasi-2D model linking a hydrodynamic and a cohesive sediment transport model. The floodplains are described as quasi-2D presentations linked to rivers and channels modeled in 1D by using control structures. The model setup, based on the experimental findings, ignored erosion and re-suspension processes due to a very high degree of human interference during the flood season. A two-stage calibration with six objective functions was developed in order to calibrate both the hydrodynamic and sediment transport modules. The objective functions include hydraulic and sediment transport parameters in main rivers, channels and floodplains. The model results show, for the first time, the tempo-spatial distribution of sediment and associated nutrient deposition rates in the whole MD. The patterns of sediment transport and deposition are quantified for different sub-systems. The main factors influencing spatial sediment dynamics are the network of rivers, channels and dike-rings, sluice gate operations, magnitude of the floods and tidal influences. The superposition of these factors leads to high spatial variability of the sediment transport and deposition, in particular in the Vietnamese floodplains. Depending on the flood magnitude, annual sediment loads reaching the coast vary from 48% to 60% of the sediment load at Kratie, the upper boundary of the MD. Deposited sediment varies from 19% to 23% of the annual load at Kratie in Cambodian floodplains, and from 1% to 6% in the compartmented and diked floodplains in Vietnam. Annual deposited nutrients (N, P, K), which are associated to the sediment deposition, provide on average more than 50% of mineral fertilizers typically applied for rice crops in non-flooded ring dike compartments in Vietnam. This large-scale quantification provides a basis for estimating the benefits of the annual Mekong floods for agriculture and fishery, for assessing the impacts of future changes on the delta system, and further studies on coastal deposition/erosion. For the estimation of future prospects a sensitivity-based approach is applied to assess the response of floodplain hydraulics and sediment dynamics to the changes in the delta boundaries including hydropower development, climate change in the Mekong River Basin and effective sea level rise. The developed sediment model is used to simulate the mean sediment transport and sediment deposition in the whole delta system for the baseline (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) periods. For each driver we derive a plausible range of future changes and discretize it into five levels, resulting in altogether 216 possible factor combinations. Our results thus cover all plausible future pathways of sediment dynamics in the delta based on current knowledge. The uncertainty of the range of the resulting impacts can be decreased in case more information on these drivers becomes available. Our results indicate that the hydropower development dominates the changes in sediment dynamics of the Mekong Delta, while sea level rise has the smallest effect. The floodplains of Vietnamese Mekong Delta are much more sensitive to the changes compared to the other subsystems of the delta. In terms of median changes of the three combined drivers, the inundation extent is predicted to increase slightly, but the overall floodplain sedimentation would be reduced by approximately 40%, while the sediment load to the Sea would diminish to half of the current rates. These findings provide new and valuable information on the possible impacts of future development on the delta, and indicate the most vulnerable areas. Thus, the presented results are a significant contribution to the ongoing international discussion on the hydropower development in the Mekong basin and its impact on the Mekong delta.
One challenging question in ecology is to explain species coexistence in highly diverse temperate grassland plant communities. Within this context, a clear understanding of the consequences of belowground herbivory for the composition and the diversity of plant communities continue to elude ecologists. The existing body of empirical evidence reveals partly contradictory responses ranging from negative to neutral or positive effects of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity.
To reveal possible mechanistic grounds for these discrepancies, we extended an existing simulation model of grassland communities based on plant functional types to include root herbivory. This enabled us to test the effects of different feeding modes that represent different herbivore guilds. For each belowground feeding mode, we systematically varied the intensity and frequency of herbivory events for three different levels of soil fertility both in the presence and absence of additional aboveground grazing.
Our modelling approach successfully reproduced various empirically reported diversity responses, merely on the basis of the different feeding modes. Different levels of plant resource availability affected the strength, but not the direction of the belowground herbivory effects. The only exception was the scenario with low resource levels, which promoted neutral (neither positive nor negative) diversity responses for some of the feeding modes. Interestingly, aboveground biomass production was largely unaffected by diversity changes induced by belowground herbivory except in the case of selective feeding modes that were related to specific functional traits.
Our findings provide possible explanations for the broad spectrum of belowground herbivory effects on plant community diversity. Furthermore, the presented theoretical modelling approach provides a suitable conceptual framework to better understand the complex linkage between plant community and belowground herbivory dynamics.