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In this chapter, we introduce the deterministic Chafee-Infante equation. This equation has been the subject of intense research and is very well understood now. We recall some properties of its longtime dynamics and in particular the structure of its attractor. We then define reduced domains of attraction that will be fundamental in our study and give a result describing precisely the time that a solution starting form a reduced domain of attraction needs to reach a stable equilibrium. This result is then proved using the detailed knowledge of the attractor and classical tools such as the stable and unstable manifolds in a neighborhood of an equilibrium.
In this preparatory chapter, the tools of stochastic analysis needed for the investigation of the asymptotic behavior of the stochastic Chafee-Infante equation are provided. In the first place, this encompasses a recollection of basic facts about Lévy processes with values in Hilbert spaces. Playing the role of the additive noise processes perturbing the deterministic Chafee-Infante equation in the systems the stochastic dynamics of which will be our main interest, symmetric ?-stable Lévy processes are in the focus of our investigation (Sect. 3.1).
Asymptotic exit times
(2013)
Asymptotic transition times
(2013)
In this chapter, equipped with our previously obtained knowledge of exit and transition times in the limit of small noise amplitude ??0 , we shall investigate the global asymptotic behavior of our jump diffusion process in the time scale in which transitions occur, i.e. in the scale given by ?0(?)=?(1?Bc?(0)),?,?>0 . It turns out that in this time scale, the switching of the diffusion between neighborhoods of the stable solutions ? ± can be well described by a Markov chain jumping back and forth between two states with a characteristic Q-matrix determined by the quantities ?((D±0)c)?(Bc?(0)) as jumping rates.
Regularized inversion of microphysical atmospheric particle parameters - theory and application
(2013)
Retrieving the distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere via remote sensing techniques is a highly complex task that requires dealing with a wide range of different problems stemming both from Physics and Mathematics. We focus on retrieving this distribution from multi-wavelength lidar data for aerosol ensembles consisting of spherical particles via an iterative regularization technique. The optical efficiencies for spherical scatterers are examined to account for the behavior of the underlying integral equation. The ill-posedness of the problem and the conditioning of the discretized problem are analyzed. Some critical points in the model, like the assumed wavelength-independence of the refractive index and the fixed grid of investigated refractive indices, are studied with regard to their expected impact on the regularized solution. A new Monte-Carlo type method is proposed for retrieval of the refractive index. To validate the results, the developed algorithm is applied to two measurement cases of burning biomass gained from multi-wavelength Raman lidar.
We show how the maximum magnitude within a predefined future time horizon may be estimated from an earthquake catalog within the context of Gutenberg-Richter statistics. The aim is to carry out a rigorous uncertainty assessment, and calculate precise confidence intervals based on an imposed level of confidence a. In detail, we present a model for the estimation of the maximum magnitude to occur in a time interval T-f in the future, given a complete earthquake catalog for a time period T in the past and, if available, paleoseismic events. For this goal, we solely assume that earthquakes follow a stationary Poisson process in time with unknown productivity Lambda and obey the Gutenberg-Richter law in magnitude domain with unknown b-value. The random variables. and b are estimated by means of Bayes theorem with noninformative prior distributions. Results based on synthetic catalogs and on retrospective calculations of historic catalogs from the highly active area of Japan and the low-seismicity, but high-risk region lower Rhine embayment (LRE) in Germany indicate that the estimated magnitudes are close to the true values. Finally, we discuss whether the techniques can be extended to meet the safety requirements for critical facilities such as nuclear power plants. For this aim, the maximum magnitude for all times has to be considered. In agreement with earlier work, we find that this parameter is not a useful quantity from the viewpoint of statistical inference.