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Based on an analysis of continuous monitoring of farm animal behavior in the region of the 2016 M6.6 Norcia earthquake in Italy, Wikelski et al., 2020; (Seismol Res Lett, 89, 2020, 1238) conclude that animal activity can be anticipated with subsequent seismic activity and that this finding might help to design a "short-term earthquake forecasting method." We show that this result is based on an incomplete analysis and misleading interpretations. Applying state-of-the-art methods of statistics, we demonstrate that the proposed anticipatory patterns cannot be distinguished from random patterns, and consequently, the observed anomalies in animal activity do not have any forecasting power.
The Quaternary volcanic fields of the Eifel (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany) had their last eruptions less than 13,000 years ago. Recently, deep low-frequency (DLF) earthquakes were detected beneath one of the volcanic fields showing evidence of ongoing magmatic activity in the lower crust and upper mantle. In this work, seismic wide- and steep-angle experiments from 1978/1979 and 1987/1988 are compiled, partially reprocessed and interpreted, together with other data to better determine the location, size, shape, and state of magmatic reservoirs in the Eifel region near the crust-mantle boundary. We discuss seismic evidence for a low-velocity gradient layer from 30-36 km depth, which has developed over a large region under all Quaternary volcanic fields of the Rhenish Massif and can be explained by the presence of partial melts. We show that the DLF earthquakes connect the postulated upper mantle reservoir with the upper crust at a depth of about 8 km, directly below one of the youngest phonolitic volcanic centers in the Eifel, where CO(2)originating from the mantle is massively outgassing. A bright spot in the West Eifel between 6 and 10 km depth represents a Tertiary magma reservoir and is seen as a model for a differentiated reservoir beneath the young phonolitic center today. We find that the distribution of volcanic fields is controlled by the Variscan lithospheric structures and terrane boundaries as a whole, which is reflected by an offset of the Moho depth, a wedge-shaped transparent zone in the lower crust and the system of thrusts over about 120 km length.