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This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.
We analysed recent K2 data of the short-period eclipsing binary system HW Vir, which consists of a hot subdwarf-B type primary with an M-dwarf companion. We determined the mid-times of eclipses, calculated O-C diagrams, and an average shift of the secondary minimum. Our results show that the orbital period is stable within the errors over the course of the 70 days of observations. Interestingly, the offset from mid-orbital phase between the primary and the secondary eclipses is found to be 1.62 s. If the shift is explained solely by light-travel time, the mass of the sdB primary must be 0.26 M-circle dot, which is too low for the star to be core-helium burning. However, we argue that this result is unlikely to be correct and that a number of effects caused by the relative sizes of the stars conspire to reduce the effective light-travel time measurement. After removing the flux variation caused by the orbit, we calculated the amplitude spectrum to search for pulsations. The spectrum clearly shows periodic signal from close to the orbital frequency up to 4600 mu Hz, with the majority of peaks found below 2600 mu Hz. The amplitudes are below 0.1 part-per-thousand, too low to be detected with ground-based photometry. Thus, the high-precision data from the Kepler spacecraft has revealed that the primary of the HW Vir system is a pulsating sdBV star. We argue that the pulsation spectrum of the primary in HW Vir differs from that in other sdB stars due to its relatively fast rotation that is (nearly) phase-locked with the orbit.
Relatively little is known about the relationship between Carl Menger, founder of the Austrian school of economics, and his son, Karl Menger, the mathematician, geometer, logician, and philosopher of science, whose mathematical colloquium at the University of Vienna was essential for the development of mathematical economics. Based on Karl Menger’s diaries and correspondence, the present paper considers the development and struggles of the young Karl Menger, focusing on the years 1919–23, when Vienna was a vanquished city. We discuss the various relations within the Menger family and their significance for Karl Menger’s intellectual development. Additionally, we consider his acquaintances with economists such as Knut Wicksell, David Davidson, and Eli Heckscher as well as the younger Menger’s work in economics. We shed new light on his editorship of the second edition of his father’s Grundsätze der Volkswirtschaftslehre.
Today, software has become an intrinsic part of complex distributed embedded real-time systems. The next generation of embedded real-time systems will interconnect the today unconnected systems via complex software parts and the service-oriented paradigm. Due to these interconnections, the architecture of systems can be subject to changes at run-time, e.g. when dynamic binding of service end-points is employed or complex collaborations are established dynamically. However, suitable formalisms and techniques that allow for modeling and analysis of timed and probabilistic behavior of such systems as well as of their structure dynamics do not exist so far. To fill the identified gap, we propose Probabilistic Timed Graph Transformation Systems (PTGTSs) as a high-level description language that supports all the necessary aspects of structure dynamics, timed behavior, and probabilistic behavior. We introduce the formal model of PTGTSs in this paper as well as present and formally verify a mapping of models with finite state spaces to probabilistic timed automata (PTA) that allows to use the PRISM model checker to analyze PTGTS models with respect to PTCTL properties. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This article investigates the word order preferences of Tagalog-speaking adults and five- and seven-year-old children. The participants were asked to complete sentences to describe pictures depicting actions between two animate entities. Adults preferred agent-initial constructions in the patient voice but not in the agent voice, while the children produced mainly agent-initial constructions regardless of voice. This agent-initial preference, despite the lack of a close link between the agent and the subject in Tagalog, shows that this word order preference is not merely syntactically-driven (subject-initial preference). Additionally, the children’s agent-initial preference in the agent voice, contrary to the adults’ lack of preference, shows that children do not respect the subject-last principle of ordering Tagalog full noun phrases. These results suggest that language-specific optional features like a subject-last principle take longer to be acquired.
Children’s motor competence is known to have a determinant role in learning and engaging later in complex motor skills and, thus, in physical activity. The development of adequate motor competence is a central aim of physical education, and assuring that pupils are learning and developing motor competence depends on accurate assessment protocols. The MOBAK 1 test battery is a recent instrument developed to assess motor competence in primary physical education. This study used the MOBAK 1 to explore motor competence levels and gender differences among 249 (Mage = 6.3, SD = 0.5 years; 127 girls and 122 boys) Grade 1 primary school Portuguese children. On independent sample t tests, boys presented higher object movement motor competence than girls (boys: M = 5.8, SD = 1.7; girls: M = 4.0, SD = 1.7; p < .001), while girls were more proficient among self-movement skills (girls: M = 5.1, SD = 1.8; boys: M = 4.3, SD = 1.7; p < .01). On “total motor competence,” boys (M = 10.3, SD = 2.6) averaged one point ahead of girls (M = 9.1, SD = 2.9). The percentage of girls in the first quartile of object movement was 18.9%, while, for “self movement,” the percentage of boys in the first quartile was almost double that of girls (30.3% and 17.3%, respectively). The confirmatory model to test for construct validity confirmed the assumed theoretical two-factor structure of MOBAK 1 test items in this Portuguese sample. These results support the MOBAK 1 instrument for assessing motor competence and highlighted gender differences, of relevance to intervention efforts.
Color matters
(2018)
Concerning standardization of laboratory animal husbandry, only exiguous changes of habitat can potentially influence animal physiology or results of behavioral tests. Routinely, mice chow is dyed when different types of diets are dispensed. Given the fact that the dye itself has no effects on food odor or flavor, we wanted to test the hypothesis that the color of chow has an impact on food uptake in mice. Twelve-week-old male mice of different strains (C57BL/6J, DBA/2J, C3H/HeJ, BALB/cJ; n = 12/strain) were single-housed in PhenoMaster (R) cages. After acclimatization standard mice chow in different colors was administered. Food intake was monitored as a two-alternative choice test of different color combinations. All animals had an average food intake of 3 g/d and no preferences were observed when a combination of identically colored food was offered. Preference tests yielded significant aversion to blue food and significant attraction to yellow and green food in C57BL/6 and DBA/2J mice. In C3H/HeJ and BALB/cJ mice no color-related pattern occurred. Selected mice strains have known differences concerning functionality of their visual sense. C57BL/6 and DBA/2 mice are considered to be normal sighted at testing age, BALB/c is representative for albino strains and C3H mice carry mutations resulting in retinal alterations. Results suggesting that normal-sighted mice would be selective concerning food color when given the choice. Nevertheless, this does not influence overall quantity of food intake when animals were provided solely with food colored with a single dye. Moreover, visually impaired mice showed no color-related food preferences.
In this paper we study the large deviations of time averaged mean square displacement (TAMSD) for Gaussian processes. The theory of large deviations is related to the exponential decay of probabilities of large fluctuations in random systems. From the mathematical point of view a given statistics satisfies the large deviation principle, if the probability that it belongs to a certain range decreases exponentially. The TAMSD is one of the main statistics used in the problem of anomalous diffusion detection. Applying the theory of generalized chi-squared distribution and sub-gamma random variables we prove the upper bound for large deviations of TAMSD for Gaussian processes. As a special case we consider fractional Brownian motion, one of the most popular models of anomalous diffusion. Moreover, we derive the upper bound for large deviations of the estimator for the anomalous diffusion exponent. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Hypothesis: An effective way for fixating vesicle structures is the insertion of monomers and cross-linking agents into their bilayer, and their subsequent polymerization can lead to the formation of polymeric nanocapsules. Particularly attractive here are vesicle systems that form spontaneously well-defined small vesicles, as obtaining such small nanocapsules with sizes below 100 nm is still challenging. Experiments: A spontaneously forming well-defined vesicle system composed of the surfactants TDMAO (tetradecyldimethylamine oxide), Pluronic L35, and LiPFOS (lithium perfluorooctylsulfonate) mixture was used as template for fixation by polymerization. Therefore, styrene monomer was incorporated into the vesicle bilayer and ultimately these structures were fixated by UV induced radical polymerization. Structural alteration of the vesicles upon loading with monomer and the cross-linker as well as the effect of subsequent polymerization in the membrane were investigated in detail by turbidity measurements, dynamic and static light scattering, (DLS, SLS), and small angle neutron scattering (SANS). Findings: The analysis showed the changes on vesicle structures due to the monomer loading, and that these structures can become permanently fixed by the polymerization process. The potential of this approach to produce well-defined nanocapsules starting from a self-assembled system and following polymerization is critically evaluated. (C) 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The lateral and vertical temperature distribution in Oman is so far only poorly understood, particularly in the area between Muscat and the Batinah coast, which is the area of this study and which is composed of Cenozoic sediments developed as part of a foreland basin of the Makran Thrust Zone. Temperature logs (T-logs) were run and physical rock properties of the sediments were analyzed to understand the temperature distribution, thermal and hydraulic properties, and heat-transport processes within the sedimentary cover of northern Oman. An advective component is evident in the otherwise conduction-dominated geothermal play system, and is caused by both topography and density driven flow. Calculated temperature gradients (T-gradients) in two wells that represent conductive conditions are 18.7 and 19.5 °C km−1, corresponding to about 70–90 °C at 2000–3000 m depth. This indicates a geothermal potential that can be used for energy intensive applications like cooling or water desalinization. Sedimentation in the foreland basin was initiated after the obduction of the Semail Ophiolite in the late Campanian, and reflects the complex history of alternating periods of transgressive and regressive sequences with erosion of the Oman Mountains. Thermal and hydraulic parameters were analyzed of the basin’s heterogeneous clastic and carbonate sedimentary sequence. Surface heat-flow values of 46.4 and 47.9 mW m−2 were calculated from the T-logs and calculated thermal conductivity values in two wells. The results of this study serve as a starting point for assessing different geothermal applications that may be suitable for northern Oman.