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After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.
Strong hydroclimatic controls on vulnerability to subsurface nitrate contamination across Europe
(2020)
Subsurface contamination due to excessive nutrient surpluses is a persistent and widespread problem in agricultural areas across Europe. The vulnerability of a particular location to pollution from reactive solutes, such as nitrate, is determined by the interplay between hydrologic transport and biogeochemical transformations. Current studies on the controls of subsurface vulnerability do not consider the transient behaviour of transport dynamics in the root zone. Here, using state-of-the-art hydrologic simulations driven by observed hydroclimatic forcing, we demonstrate the strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hydrologic transport dynamics and reveal that these dynamics are primarily controlled by the hydroclimatic gradient of the aridity index across Europe. Contrasting the space-time dynamics of transport times with reactive timescales of denitrification in soil indicate that similar to 75% of the cultivated areas across Europe are potentially vulnerable to nitrate leaching for at least onethird of the year. We find that neglecting the transient nature of transport and reaction timescale results in a great underestimation of the extent of vulnerable regions by almost 50%. Therefore, future vulnerability and risk assessment studies must account for the transient behaviour of transport and biogeochemical transformation processes.
The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits that suites of traits are correlated along a slow-fast continuum owing to life history trade-offs. Despite widespread adoption, environmental conditions driving the emergence of POLS remain unclear. A recently proposed conceptual framework of POLS suggests that a slow-fast continuum should align to fluctuations in density-dependent selection. We tested three key predictions made by this framework with an ecoevolutionary agent-based population model. Selection acted on responsiveness (behavioral trait) to interpatch resource differences and the reproductive investment threshold (life history trait). Across environments with density fluctuations of different magnitudes, we observed the emergence of a common axis of trait covariation between and within populations (i.e., the evolution of a POLS). Slow-type (fast-type) populations with high (low) responsiveness and low (high) reproductive investment threshold were selected at high (low) population densities and less (more) intense and frequent density fluctuations. In support of the predictions, fast-type populations contained a higher degree of variation in traits and were associated with higher intrinsic reproductive rate (r(0)) and higher sensitivity to intraspecific competition (gamma), pointing to a universal trade-off. While our findings support that POLS aligns with density-dependent selection, we discuss possible mechanisms that may lead to alternative evolutionary pathways.
Xanthomonas phaseoli pv. manihotis (Xpm) is the causal agent of cassava bacterial blight, the most important bacterial disease in this crop. There is a paucity of knowledge about the metabolism of Xanthomonas and its relevance in the pathogenic process, with the exception of the elucidation of the xanthan biosynthesis route. Here we report the reconstruction of the genome-scale model of Xpm metabolism and the insights it provides into plant-pathogen interactions. The model, iXpm1556, displayed 1,556 reactions, 1,527 compounds, and 890 genes. Metabolic maps of central amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism, as well as xanthan biosynthesis of Xpm, were reconstructed using Escher (https://escher.github.io/) to guide the curation process and for further analyses. The model was constrained using the RNA-seq data of a mutant of Xpm for quorum sensing (QS), and these data were used to construct context-specific models (CSMs) of the metabolism of the two strains (wild type and QS mutant). The CSMs and flux balance analysis were used to get insights into pathogenicity, xanthan biosynthesis, and QS mechanisms. Between the CSMs, 653 reactions were shared; unique reactions belong to purine, pyrimidine, and amino acid metabolism. Alternative objective functions were used to demonstrate a trade-off between xanthan biosynthesis and growth and the re-allocation of resources in the process of biosynthesis. Important features altered by QS included carbohydrate metabolism, NAD(P)(+) balance, and fatty acid elongation. In this work, we modeled the xanthan biosynthesis and the QS process and their impact on the metabolism of the bacterium. This model will be useful for researchers studying host-pathogen interactions and will provide insights into the mechanisms of infection used by this and other Xanthomonas species.
The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed.
Experiments in research on memory, language, and in other areas of cognitive science are increasingly being analyzed using Bayesian methods. This has been facilitated by the development of probabilistic programming languages such as Stan, and easily accessible front-end packages such as brms. The utility of Bayesian methods, however, ultimately depends on the relevance of the Bayesian model, in particular whether or not it accurately captures the structure of the data and the data analyst's domain expertise. Even with powerful software, the analyst is responsible for verifying the utility of their model. To demonstrate this point, we introduce a principled Bayesian workflow (Betancourt, 2018) to cognitive science. Using a concrete working example, we describe basic questions one should ask about the model: prior predictive checks, computational faithfulness, model sensitivity, and posterior predictive checks. The running example for demonstrating the workflow is data on reading times with a linguistic manipulation of object versus subject relative clause sentences. This principled Bayesian workflow also demonstrates how to use domain knowledge to inform prior distributions. It provides guidelines and checks for valid data analysis, avoiding overfitting complex models to noise, and capturing relevant data structure in a probabilistic model. Given the increasing use of Bayesian methods, we aim to discuss how these methods can be properly employed to obtain robust answers to scientific questions.
In this study, we present an empirical model of the equatorial electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in the outer radiation belt based on the full data set collected by the Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer (MagEIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes in 2012-2019. The PADs are fitted with a combination of the first, third and fifth sine harmonics. The resulting equation resolves all PAD types found in the outer radiation belt (pancake, flat-top, butterfly and cap PADs) and can be analytically integrated to derive omnidirectional flux. We introduce a two-step modeling procedure that for the first time ensures a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time and activity, parametrized by the solar wind dynamic pressure. We propose two methods to reconstruct equatorial electron flux using the model. The first approach requires two uni-directional flux observations and is applicable to low-PA data. The second method can be used to reconstruct the full equatorial PADs from a single uni- or omnidirectional measurement at off-equatorial latitudes. The model can be used for converting the long-term data sets of electron fluxes to phase space density in terms of adiabatic invariants, for physics-based modeling in the form of boundary conditions, and for data assimilation purposes.
Neodymium isotopic composition (epsilon Nd) has enjoyed widespread use as a palaeotracer, principally because it behaves quasi-conservatively in the modern ocean. However, recent bottom water epsilon Nd reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic are difficult to interpret under assumptions of conservative behaviour. The observation that this apparent departure from conservative behaviour increases with enhanced ice-rafted debris (IRD) fluxes has resulted in the suggestion that IRD leads to the overprinting of bottom water epsilon Nd through reversible scavenging. In this study, a simple water column model successfully reproduces epsilon Nd reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic at the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, and demonstrates that the changes in scavenging intensity required for good model-data fit is in good agreement with changes in the observed IRD flux. Although uncertainties in model parameters preclude a more definitive conclusion, the results indicate that the suggestion of IRD as a source of non-conservative behaviour in the epsilon Nd tracer is reasonable and that further research into the fundamental chemistry underlying the marine neodymium cycle is necessary to increase confidence in assumptions of conservative epsilon Nd behaviour in the past.
We study populations of globally coupled noisy rotators (oscillators with inertia) allowing a nonequilibrium transition from a desynchronized state to a synchronous one (with the nonvanishing order parameter). The newly developed analytical approaches resulted in solutions describing the synchronous state with constant order parameter for weakly inertial rotators, including the case of zero inertia, when the model is reduced to the Kuramoto model of coupled noise oscillators. These approaches provide also analytical criteria distinguishing supercritical and subcritical transitions to the desynchronized state and indicate the universality of such transitions in rotator ensembles. All the obtained analytical results are confirmed by the numerical ones, both by direct simulations of the large ensembles and by solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. We also propose generalizations of the developed approaches for setups where different rotators parameters (natural frequencies, masses, noise intensities, strengths and phase shifts in coupling) are dispersed.
Paradoxical leadership behaviour (PLB) represents an emerging leadership construct that can help leaders deal with conflicting demands. In this paper, we report three studies that add to this nascent literature theoretically, methodologically, and empirically. In Study 1, we validate an effective short-form measure of global PLB using three different samples. In Studies 2 and 3, we draw on the job demands-resources model to propose that paradoxical leaders promote followers' work engagement by simultaneously fostering follower goal clarity and work autonomy. The results of survey data from Studies 2 and 3 largely confirm our model. Specifically, our findings show that PLB is positively associated with follower goal clarity and work autonomy, and that PLB exerts an indirect effect on work engagement via these variables. Moreover, our results support a hypothesized interaction effect of goal clarity and work autonomy to predict followers' work engagement, as well as a conditional indirect effect of PLB on work engagement via the interactive effect. We discuss the practical implications for leaders and organizations.
Practitioner points
To effectively engage followers in their work, leaders should create work environments in which followers know exactly what to do (i.e., have high goal clarity), but at the same time can determine on their own how to do their work (i.e., have high work autonomy)
To foster both goal clarity and work autonomy, leaders should combine communal (e.g., other-centred, flexibility-providing) and agentic aspects of leadership (e.g., maintaining decision control and enforcing performance standards).
HR departments should design leadership trainings that help leaders to combine seemingly opposing, yet ultimately synergistic behaviours.