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Knowledge on the response of sediment export to recent climate change in glacierized areas in the European Alps is limited, primarily because long-term records of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) are scarce. Here we tested the estimation of sediment export of the past five decades using quantile regression forest (QRF), a nonparametric, multivariate regression based on random forest. The regression builds on short-term records of SSCs and long records of the most important hydroclimatic drivers (discharge, precipitation and air temperature - QPT). We trained independent models for two nested and partially glacier-covered catchments, Vent (98 km(2)) and Vernagt (11.4 km(2)), in the upper otztal in Tyrol, Austria (1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), where available QPT records start in 1967 and 1975. To assess temporal extrapolation ability, we used two 2-year SSC datasets at gauge Vernagt, which are almost 20 years apart, for a validation. For Vent, we performed a five-fold cross-validation on the 15 years of SSC measurements. Further, we quantified the number of days where predictors exceeded the range represented in the training dataset, as the inability to extrapolate beyond this range is a known limitation of QRF. Finally, we compared QRF performance to sediment rating curves (SRCs). We analyzed the modeled sediment export time series, the predictors and glacier mass balance data for trends (Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator) and step-like changes (using the widely applied Pettitt test and a complementary Bayesian approach).Our validation at gauge Vernagt demonstrated that QRF performs well in estimating past daily sediment export (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73) and satisfactorily for SSCs (NSE of 0.51), despite the small training dataset. The temporal extrapolation ability of QRF was superior to SRCs, especially in periods with high-SSC events, which demonstrated the ability of QRF to model threshold effects. Days with high SSCs tended to be underestimated, but the effect on annual yields was small. Days with predictor exceedances were rare, indicating a good representativity of the training dataset. Finally, the QRF reconstruction models outperformed SRCs by about 20 percent points of the explained variance.Significant positive trends in the reconstructed annual suspended sediment yields were found at both gauges, with distinct step-like increases around 1981. This was linked to increased glacier melt, which became apparent through step-like increases in discharge at both gauges as well as change points in mass balances of the two largest glaciers in the Vent catchment. We identified exceptionally high July temperatures in 1982 and 1983 as a likely cause. In contrast, we did not find coinciding change points in precipitation. Opposing trends at the two gauges after 1981 suggest different timings of "peak sediment". We conclude that, given large-enough training datasets, the presented QRF approach is a promising tool with the ability to deepen our understanding of the response of high-alpine areas to decadal climate change.
Background:
Contamination detection is a important step that should be carefully considered in early stages when designing and performing microbiome studies to avoid biased outcomes. Detecting and removing true contaminants is challenging, especially in low-biomass samples or in studies lacking proper controls. Interactive visualizations and analysis platforms are crucial to better guide this step, to help to identify and detect noisy patterns that could potentially be contamination. Additionally, external evidence, like aggregation of several contamination detection methods and the use of common contaminants reported in the literature, could help to discover and mitigate contamination.
Results:
We propose GRIMER, a tool that performs automated analyses and generates a portable and interactive dashboard integrating annotation, taxonomy, and metadata. It unifies several sources of evidence to help detect contamination. GRIMER is independent of quantification methods and directly analyzes contingency tables to create an interactive and offline report. Reports can be created in seconds and are accessible for nonspecialists, providing an intuitive set of charts to explore data distribution among observations and samples and its connections with external sources. Further, we compiled and used an extensive list of possible external contaminant taxa and common contaminants with 210 genera and 627 species reported in 22 published articles.
Conclusion:
GRIMER enables visual data exploration and analysis, supporting contamination detection in microbiome studies. The tool and data presented are open source and available at https://gitlab.com/dacs-hpi/grimer.
Background
The aggregation of a series of N-of-1 trials presents an innovative and efficient study design, as an alternative to traditional randomized clinical trials. Challenges for the statistical analysis arise when there is carry-over or complex dependencies of the treatment effect of interest.
Methods
In this study, we evaluate and compare methods for the analysis of aggregated N-of-1 trials in different scenarios with carry-over and complex dependencies of treatment effects on covariates. For this, we simulate data of a series of N-of-1 trials for Chronic Nonspecific Low Back Pain based on assumed causal relationships parameterized by directed acyclic graphs. In addition to existing statistical methods such as regression models, Bayesian Networks, and G-estimation, we introduce a carry-over adjusted parametric model (COAPM).
Results
The results show that all evaluated existing models have a good performance when there is no carry-over and no treatment dependence. When there is carry-over, COAPM yields unbiased and more efficient estimates while all other methods show some bias in the estimation. When there is known treatment dependence, all approaches that are capable to model it yield unbiased estimates. Finally, the efficiency of all methods decreases slightly when there are missing values, and the bias in the estimates can also increase.
Conclusions
This study presents a systematic evaluation of existing and novel approaches for the statistical analysis of a series of N-of-1 trials. We derive practical recommendations which methods may be best in which scenarios.
Graphene is well-knownfor its unique combination of electricaland mechanical properties. However, its vanishing band gap limitsthe use of graphene in microelectronics. Covalent functionalizationof graphene has been a common approach to address this critical issueand introduce a band gap. In this Article, we systematically analyzethe functionalization of single-layer graphene (SLG) and bilayer graphene(BLG) with methyl (CH3) using periodic density functionaltheory (DFT) at the PBE+D3 level of theory. We also include a comparisonof methylated single-layer and bilayer graphene, as well as a discussionof different methylation options (radicalic, cationic, and anionic).For SLG, methyl coverages ranging from 1/8 to 1/1, (i.e.,the fully methylated analogue of graphane) are considered. We findthat up to a coverage theta of 1/2, graphene readily accepts CH3, with neighbor CH3 groups preferring trans positions. Above theta = 1/2, the tendency to accept further CH3 weakens and the lattice constant increases. The band gapbehaves less regularly, but overall it increases with increasing methylcoverage. Thus, methylated graphene shows potential for developingband gap-tuned microelectronics devices and may offer further functionalizationoptions. To guide in the interpretation of methylation experiments,vibrational signatures of various species are characterized by normal-modeanalysis (NMA), their vibrational density of states (VDOS), and infrared(IR) spectra, the latter two are obtained from ab initio moleculardynamics (AIMD) in combination with a velocity-velocity autocorrelationfunction (VVAF) approach.
Genomic and epigenomic determinants of heat stress-induced transcriptional memory in Arabidopsis
(2023)
Background
Transcriptional regulation is a key aspect of environmental stress responses. Heat stress induces transcriptional memory, i.e., sustained induction or enhanced re-induction of transcription, that allows plants to respond more efficiently to a recurrent HS. In light of more frequent temperature extremes due to climate change, improving heat tolerance in crop plants is an important breeding goal. However, not all heat stress-inducible genes show transcriptional memory, and it is unclear what distinguishes memory from non-memory genes. To address this issue and understand the genome and epigenome architecture of transcriptional memory after heat stress, we identify the global target genes of two key memory heat shock transcription factors, HSFA2 and HSFA3, using time course ChIP-seq.
Results
HSFA2 and HSFA3 show near identical binding patterns. In vitro and in vivo binding strength is highly correlated, indicating the importance of DNA sequence elements. In particular, genes with transcriptional memory are strongly enriched for a tripartite heat shock element, and are hallmarked by several features: low expression levels in the absence of heat stress, accessible chromatin environment, and heat stress-induced enrichment of H3K4 trimethylation. These results are confirmed by an orthogonal transcriptomic data set using both de novo clustering and an established definition of memory genes.
Conclusions
Our findings provide an integrated view of HSF-dependent transcriptional memory and shed light on its sequence and chromatin determinants, enabling the prediction and engineering of genes with transcriptional memory behavior.
Economic evaluation of digital therapeutic care apps for unsupervised treatment of low back pain
(2023)
Background:
Digital therapeutic care (DTC) programs are unsupervised app-based treatments that provide video exercises and educational material to patients with nonspecific low back pain during episodes of pain and functional disability. German statutory health insurance can reimburse DTC programs since 2019, but evidence on efficacy and reasonable pricing remains scarce. This paper presents a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate the efficacy and cost-utility of a DTC app against treatment as usual (TAU) in Germany.
Objective:
The aim of this study was to perform a PSA in the form of a Monte Carlo simulation based on the deterministic base case analysis to account for model assumptions and parameter uncertainty. We also intend to explore to what extent the results in this probabilistic analysis differ from the results in the base case analysis and to what extent a shortage of outcome data concerning quality-of-life (QoL) metrics impacts the overall results.
Methods:
The PSA builds upon a state-transition Markov chain with a 4-week cycle length over a model time horizon of 3 years from a recently published deterministic cost-utility analysis. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations and a cohort size of 10,000 was employed to evaluate the cost-utility from a societal perspective. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were derived from Veterans RAND 6-Dimension (VR-6D) and Short-Form 6-Dimension (SF-6D) single utility scores. Finally, we also simulated reducing the price for a 3-month app prescription to analyze at which price threshold DTC would result in being the dominant strategy over TAU in Germany.
Results:
The Monte Carlo simulation yielded on average a euro135.97 (a currency exchange rate of EUR euro1=US $1.069 is applicable) incremental cost and 0.004 incremental QALYs per person and year for the unsupervised DTC app strategy compared to in-person physiotherapy in Germany. The corresponding incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) amounts to an additional euro34,315.19 per additional QALY. DTC yielded more QALYs in 54.96% of the iterations. DTC dominates TAU in 24.04% of the iterations for QALYs. Reducing the app price in the simulation from currently euro239.96 to euro164.61 for a 3-month prescription could yield a negative ICUR and thus make DTC the dominant strategy, even though the estimated probability of DTC being more effective than TAU is only 54.96%.
Conclusions:
Decision-makers should be cautious when considering the reimbursement of DTC apps since no significant treatment effect was found, and the probability of cost-effectiveness remains below 60% even for an infinite willingness-to-pay threshold. More app-based studies involving the utilization of QoL outcome parameters are urgently needed to account for the low and limited precision of the available QoL input parameters, which are crucial to making profound recommendations concerning the cost-utility of novel apps.