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Fram Strait in the northern North Atlantic is a key region for marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), southward discharges of polar air under northerly air flow, which have a strong impact on air-sea heat fluxes, boundary layer processes and severe weather. This study investigates climatologies and decadal trends of Fram Strait MCAOs of different intensity classes based on the ERA5 reanalysis product for 1979-2020. Among striking interannual variability, it is shown that the main MCAO season is December through March, when MCAOs occur around 2/3 of the time. We report on significant decadal MCAO decreases in December and January, and a significant increase in March. While the mid-winter decrease is mainly related to the different paces of warming between the surface and the lower atmosphere, the increase in March can be related to changes in synoptic circulation patterns. As an explanation for the latter, a possible feedback between retreating Barents Sea sea ice, enhanced cyclonic activity and Fram Strait MCAOs is postulated. Exemplifying the trend toward stronger MCAOs during March, the study details the recordbreaking MCAO season in early 2020, and an observational case study of an extreme MCAO event in March 2020 is conducted. Thereby, radiosonde observations are combined with kinematic air back-trajectories to provide rare observational evidence for the diabatic cooling and drying during the MCAO preconditioning phase.
Arctic Amplification of climate warming is caused by various feedback processes in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and yields the strongest temperature increase during winter in the Arctic North Atlantic region. In our study, we attempt to quantify the advective contribution to the observed atmospheric warming in the Svalbard area. Based on radiosonde measurements from Ny-Ålesund, a strong dependence of the tropospheric temperature on the synoptic flow direction is revealed. Using FLEXTRA backward trajectories, an increase of advection from the lower latitude Atlantic region towards Ny-Ålesund is found that is attributed to a change in atmospheric circulation patterns. We find that about one-quarter (0.45 K per decade) of the observed atmospheric winter near surface warming trend in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (2 K per decade) is due to increased advection of warm and moist air from the lower latitude Atlantic region, affecting the entire troposphere.