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Increasing arctic coastal erosion rates imply a greater release of sediments and organic matter into the coastal zone. With 213 sediment samples taken around Herschel Island-Qikiqtaruk, Canadian Beaufort Sea, we aimed to gain new insights on sediment dynamics and geochemical properties of a shallow arctic nearshore zone. Spatial characteristics of nearshore sediment texture (moderately to poorly sorted silt) are dictated by hydrodynamic processes, but ice-related processes also play a role. We determined organic matter (OM) distribution and inferred the origin and quality of organic carbon by C/N ratios and stable carbon isotopes delta C-13. The carbon content was higher offshore and in sheltered areas (mean: 1.0 wt.%., S.D.: 0.9) and the C/N ratios also showed a similar spatial pattern (mean: 11.1, S.D.: 3.1), while the delta C-13 (mean: -26.4 parts per thousand VPDB, S.D.: 0.4) distribution was more complex. We compared the geochemical parameters of our study with terrestrial and marine samples from other studies using a bootstrap approach. Sediments of the current study contained 6.5 times and 1.8 times less total organic carbon than undisturbed and disturbed terrestrial sediments, respectively. Therefore, degradation of OM and separation of carbon pools take place on land and continue in the nearshore zone, where OM is leached, mineralized, or transported beyond the study area.
Forest structure and individual tree inventories of northeastern Siberia along climatic gradients
(2022)
We compile a data set of forest surveys from expeditions to the northeast of the Russian Federation, in Krasnoyarsk Krai, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (59-73 degrees N, 97-169 degrees E), performed between the years 2011 and 2021. The region is characterized by permafrost soils and forests dominated by larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr. and Larix cajanderi Mayr).
Our data set consists of a plot database describing 226 georeferenced vegetation survey plots and a tree database with information about all the trees on these plots. The tree database, consisting of two tables with the same column names, contains information on the height, species, and vitality of 40 289 trees. A subset of the trees was subject to a more detailed inventory, which recorded the stem diameter at base and at breast height, crown diameter, and height of the beginning of the crown.
We recorded heights up to 28.5 m (median 2.5 m) and stand densities up to 120 000 trees per hectare (median 1197 ha(-1)), with both values tending to be higher in the more southerly areas. Observed taxa include Larix Mill., Pinus L., Picea A. Dietr., Abies Mill., Salix L., Betula L., Populus L., Alnus Mill., and Ulmus L.
In this study, we present the forest inventory data aggregated per plot. Additionally, we connect the data with different remote sensing data products to find out how accurately forest structure can be predicted from such products. Allometries were calculated to obtain the diameter from height measurements for every species group. For Larix, the most frequent of 10 species groups, allometries depended also on the stand density, as denser stands are characterized by thinner trees, relative to height. The remote sensing products used to compare against the inventory data include climate, forest biomass, canopy height, and forest loss or disturbance. We find that the forest metrics measured in the field can only be reconstructed from the remote sensing data to a limited extent, as they depend on local properties. This illustrates the need for ground inventories like those data we present here.
The data can be used for studying the forest structure of northeastern Siberia and for the calibration and validation of remotely sensed data.
Aim: The continental-scale distribution of plant functional types, such as evergreen and summergreen needle-leaf forest, is assumed to be determined by contemporary climate. However, the distribution of summergreen needle-leaf forest of larch (Larix Mill.) differs markedly between the continents, despite relatively similar climatic conditions. The reasons for these differences are little understood. Our aim is to identify potential triggers and drivers of the current distribution patterns by comparing species' bioclimatic niches, glacial refugia and postglacial recolonization patterns.
Location: Northern hemisphere.
Taxon: Species of the genus Larix (Mill.).
Methods: We compare species distribution and dominance using species ranges and sites of dominance, as well as their occurrence on modelled permafrost extent, and active layer thickness (ALT). We compare the bioclimatic niches and calculate the niche overlap between species, using the same data in addition to modern climate data. We synthesize pollen, macrofossil and ancient DNA palaeo-evidence of past Larix occurrences of the last 60,000 years and track differences in distribution patterns through time.
Results: Bioclimatic niches show large overlaps between Asian larch species and American Larix laricina. The distribution across various degrees of permafrost extent is distinctly different for Asian L. gmelinii and L. cajanderi compared to the other species, whereas the distribution on different depths of ALT is more similar among Asian and American species. Northern glacial refugia for Larix are only present in eastern Asia and Alaska.
Main Conclusion: The dominance of summergreen larches in Asia, where evergreen conifers dominate most of the rest of the boreal forests, is dependent on the interaction of several factors which allows Asian L. gmelinii and L. cajanderi to dominate where these factors coincide. These factors include the early postglacial spread out of northern glacial refugia in the absence of competitors as well as a positive feedback mechanism between frozen ground and forest.
We present a chronology framework named LegacyAge 1.0 containing harmonized chronologies for 2831 pollen records (downloaded from the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the supplementary Asian datasets) together with their age control points and metadata in machine-readable data formats.
All chronologies use the Bayesian framework implemented in Bacon version 2.5.3. Optimal parameter settings of priors (accumulation.shape, memory.strength, memory.mean, accumulation.rate, and thickness) were identified based on information in the original publication or iteratively after preliminary model inspection.
The most common control points for the chronologies are radiocarbon dates (86.1 %), calibrated by the latest calibration curves (IntCal20 and SHCal20 for the terrestrial radiocarbon dates in the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere and Marine20 for marine materials).
The original publications were consulted when dealing with outliers and inconsistencies. Several major challenges when setting up the chronologies included the waterline issue (18.8% of records), reservoir effect (4.9 %), and sediment deposition discontinuity (4.4 %).
Finally, we numerically compare the LegacyAge 1.0 chronologies to those published in the original publications and show that the reliability of the chronologies of 95.4% of records could be improved according to our assessment.
Our chronology framework and revised chronologies provide the opportunity to make use of the ages and age uncertainties in synthesis studies of, for example, pollen-based vegetation and climate change.
The LegacyAge 1.0 dataset, including metadata, datings, harmonized chronologies, and R code used, is openaccess and available at PANGAEA (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.933132; Li et al., 2021) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5815192; Li et al., 2022), respectively.
Climate change has a major impact on arctic and boreal terrestrial ecosystems as warming leads to northward treeline shifts, inducing consequences for heterotrophic organisms associated with the plant taxa. To unravel ecological dependencies, we address how long-term climatic changes have shaped the co-occurrence of plants and fungi across selected sites in Siberia. We investigated sedimentary ancient DNA from five lakes spanning the last 47,000 years, using the ITS1 marker for fungi and the chloroplast P6 loop marker for vegetation metabarcoding. We obtained 706 unique fungal operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and 243 taxa for the plants. We show higher OTU numbers in dry forest tundra as well as boreal forests compared to wet southern tundra. The most abundant fungal taxa in our dataset are Pseudeurotiaceae, Mortierella, Sordariomyceta, Exophiala, Oidiodendron, Protoventuria, Candida vartiovaarae, Pseudeurotium, Gryganskiella fimbricystis, and Tricho-sporiella cerebriformis. The overall fungal composition is explained by the plant composition as revealed by redundancy analysis. The fungal functional groups show antagonistic relationships in their climate susceptibility. The advance of woody taxa in response to past warming led to an increase in the abun-dance of mycorrhizae, lichens, and parasites, while yeast and saprotroph distribution declined. We also show co-occurrences between Salicaceae, Larix, and Alnus and their associated pathogens and detect higher mycorrhizal fungus diversity with the presence of Pinaceae. Under future warming, we can expect feedbacks between fungus composition and plant diversity changes which will affect forest advance, species diversity, and ecosystem stability in arctic regions.
Variations in regional temperature have widespread implications for society, but our understanding of the amplitude and origin of long-term natural variability is insufficient for accurate regional projections. This is especially the case for terrestrial temperature variability, which is currently thought to be weak over long timescales. By performing spectral analysis on climate reconstructions, produced using sedimentary pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere over the last 8,000 years, coupled with instrumental data, we provide a comprehensive estimate of regional temperature variability from annual to millennial timescales. We show that short-term random variations are overprinted by strong ocean-driven climate variability on multi-decadal and longer timescales. This may cause substantial and potentially unpredictable regional climatic shifts in the coming century, in contrast to the relatively muted and homogeneous warming projected by climate models. Due to the marine influence, regions characterized by stable oceanic climate at sub-decadal timescales experience stronger long-term variability, and continental regions with higher sub-decadal variability show weaker long-term variability. This fundamental relationship between the timescales provides a unique insight into the emergence of a marine-driven low-frequency regime governing terrestrial climate variability and sets the basis to project the amplitude of temperature fluctuations on multi-decadal timescales and longer.
Temperature variability over land is enhanced by ocean temperature fluctuations on millennial timescales, with implications for regional-scale climate change, according to an analysis of Northern Hemisphere proxy records and observations.
Boreal forests of Siberia play a relevant role in the global carbon cycle. However, global warming threatens the existence of summergreen larch-dominated ecosystems, likely enabling a transition to evergreen tree taxa with deeper active layers. Complex permafrost-vegetation interactions make it uncertain whether these ecosystems could develop into a carbon source rather than continuing atmospheric carbon sequestration under global warming. Consequently, shedding light on the role of current and future active layer dynamics and the feedbacks with the apparent tree species is crucial to predict boreal forest transition dynamics and thus for aboveground forest biomass and carbon stock developments. Hence, we established a coupled model version amalgamating a one-dimensional permafrost multilayer forest land-surface model (CryoGrid) with LAVESI, an individual-based and spatially explicit forest model for larch species (Larix Mill.), extended for this study by including other relevant Siberian forest species and explicit terrain. <br /> Following parameterization, we ran simulations with the coupled version to the near future to 2030 with a mild climate-warming scenario. We focus on three regions covering a gradient of summergreen forests in the east at Spasskaya Pad, mixed summergreen-evergreen forests close to Nyurba, and the warmest area at Lake Khamra in the southeast of Yakutia, Russia. Coupled simulations were run with the newly implemented boreal forest species and compared to runs allowing only one species at a time, as well as to simulations using just LAVESI. Results reveal that the coupled version corrects for overestimation of active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture, and large differences in established forests are simulated. We conclude that the coupled version can simulate the complex environment of eastern Siberia by reproducing vegetation patterns, making it an excellent tool to disentangle processes driving boreal forest dynamics.
Pollen-based biome reconstruction on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 15,000 years
(2022)
Reconstruction of past vegetation change is critical for better understanding the potential impact of future global change on the fragile alpine ecosystems of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). In this paper, pollen assemblages comprising 58 records from the QTP, spanning the past 15 kyrs, were collected to reconstruct biome compositions using a standard approach. Six forest biomes were identified mainly on the southeastern plateau, exhibiting a pattern of gradual expansion along the eastern margin during early to mid-Holocene times. The alpine meadow biome was separately identified based on an updated scheme, and showed notable westward expansions towards lower latitudes and higher altitudes during early Holocene times. Consistent patterns of migration could also be identified for the alpine steppe biome, which moved eastward during the late Holocene after 4 ka. As the dominant biome type, temperate steppe was distributed widely over the QTP with minor migration patterns, except for a progressive expansion to lower altitudes in the late Holocene times. The desert biome was inferred mainly as covering the northwestern plateau and the Qaidam Basin, in relatively restricted areas. The spatial distribution of the reconstructed biomes represent the large-scale vegetation gradient on the QTP. Monsoonal precipitation expressed predominant controls on the development of alpine ecosystems, while the variations in desert vegetation responded to regional moisture brought by the mid-latitude Westerlies. Temperature changes played relatively minor roles in the variations of alpine vegetation, but exerted more significant impacts on the forest biomes.
The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.
Future precipitation levels remain uncertain because climate models have struggled to reproduce observed variations in temperature-precipitation correlations. Our analyses of Holocene proxy-based temperature-precipitation correlations and hydrological sensitivities from 2,237 Northern Hemisphere extratropical pollen records reveal a significant latitudinal dependence and temporal variations among the early, middle, and late Holocene. These proxy-based variations are largely consistent with patterns obtained from transient climate simulations (TraCE21k). While high latitudes and subtropical monsoon areas show mainly stable positive correlations throughout the Holocene, the mid-latitude pattern is temporally and spatially more variable. In particular, we identified a reversal from positive to negative temperature-precipitation correlations in the eastern North American and European mid-latitudes from the early to mid-Holocene that mainly related to slowed down westerlies and a switch to moisture-limited convection under a warm climate. Our palaeoevidence of past temperature-precipitation correlation shifts identifies those regions where simulating past and future precipitation levels might be particularly challenging.