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This paper employs a complex network approach to determine the topology and evolution of the network of extreme precipitation that governs the organization of extreme rainfall before, during, and after the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) season. We construct networks of extreme rainfall events during the ISM (June-September), post-monsoon (October-December), and pre-monsoon (March-May) periods from satellite-derived (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM) and rain-gauge interpolated (Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources, APHRODITE) data sets. The structure of the networks is determined by the level of synchronization of extreme rainfall events between different grid cells throughout the Indian subcontinent. Through the analysis of various complex-network metrics, we describe typical repetitive patterns in North Pakistan (NP), the Eastern Ghats (EG), and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). These patterns appear during the pre-monsoon season, evolve during the ISM, and disappear during the post-monsoon season. These are important meteorological features that need further attention and that may be useful in ISM timing and strength prediction.
We document Quaternary fluvial incision driven by fault-controlled surface deformation in the inverted intermontane Gökirmak Basin in the Central Pontide mountains along the northern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau. In-situ-produced Be-10, Ne-21, and Cl-36 concentrations from gravel-covered fluvial terraces and pediment surfaces along the trunk stream of the basin (the Gökirmak River) yield model exposure ages ranging from 71ka to 34645ka and average fluvial incision rates over the past similar to 350ka of 0.280.01mm a(-1). Similarities between river incision rates and coastal uplift rates at the Black Sea coast suggest that regional uplift is responsible for the river incision. Model exposure ages of deformed pediment surfaces along tributaries of the trunk stream range from 605ka to 110 +/- 10ka, demonstrating that the thrust faults responsible for pediment deformation were active after those times and were likely active earlier as well as explaining the topographic relief of the region. Together, our data demonstrate cumulative incision that is linked to active internal shortening and uplift of similar to 0.3mm a(-1) in the Central Pontide orogenic wedge, which may ultimately contribute to the lateral growth of the northern Anatolian Plateau.
The sediment flux through Himalayan rivers directly impacts water quality and is important for sustaining agriculture as well as maintaining drinking-water and hydropower generation. Despite the recent increase in demand for these resources, little is known about the triggers and sources of extreme sediment flux events, which lower water quality and account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal trends in suspended sediment flux based on daily data during the past decade (2001-2009) from four sites along the Sutlej River and from four of its main tributaries. In conjunction with satellite data depicting rainfall and snow cover, air temperature and earthquake records, and field observations, we infer climatic and geologic controls of peak suspended sediment concentration (SSC) events. Our study identifies three key findings: First, peak SSC events (a parts per thousand yen 99th SSC percentile) coincide frequently (57-80%) with heavy rainstorms and account for about 30% of the suspended sediment flux in the semi-arid to arid interior of the orogen. Second, we observe an increase of suspended sediment flux from the Tibetan Plateau to the Himalayan Front at mean annual timescales. This sediment-flux gradient suggests that averaged, modern erosion in the western Himalaya is most pronounced at frontal regions, which are characterized by high monsoonal rainfall and thick soil cover. Third, in seven of eight catchments, we find an anticlockwise hysteresis loop of annual sediment flux variations with respect to river discharge, which appears to be related to enhanced glacial sediment evacuation during late summer. Our analysis emphasizes the importance of unconsolidated sediments in the high-elevation sector that can easily be mobilized by hydrometeorological events and higher glacial-meltwater contributions. In future climate change scenarios, including continuous glacial retreat and more frequent monsoonal rainstorms across the Himalaya, we expect an increase in peak SSC events, which will decrease the water quality and impact hydropower generation.
The tectonic and climatic boundary conditions of the broken foreland and the orogen interior of the southern Central Andes of northwestern Argentina cause strong contrasts in elevation, rainfall, and surface-process regimes. The climatic gradient in this region ranges from the wet, windward eastern flanks (similar to 2 m/yr rainfall) to progressively drier western basins and ranges (similar to 0.1 m/yr) bordering the arid Altiplano-Puna Plateau. In this study, we analyze the impact of spatiotemporal climatic gradients on surface erosion: First, we present 41 new catchment-mean erosion rates derived from cosmogenic nuclide inventories to document spatial erosion patterns. Second, we re-evaluate paleoclimatic records from the Calchaquies basin (66 W, 26 S), a large intermontane basin bordered by high (> 4.5 km) mountain ranges, to demonstrate temporal variations in erosion rates associated with changing climatic boundary conditions during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Three key observations in this region emphasize the importance of climatic parameters on the efficiency of surface processes in space and time: (1) First-order spatial patterns of erosion rates can be explained by a simple specific stream power (SSP) approach. We explicitly account for discharge by routing high-resolution, satellite derived rainfall. This is important as the steep climatic gradient results in a highly non-linear relation between drainage area and discharge. This relation indicates that erosion rates (ER) scale with ER similar to SSP1.4 on cosmogenic-nuclide time scales. (2) We identify an intrinsic channel-slope behavior in different climatic compartments. Channel slopes in dry areas (< 0.25 m/yr rainfall) are slightly steeper than in wet areas (> 0.75 m/yr) with equal drainage areas, thus compensating lower amounts of discharge with steeper slopes. (3) Erosion rates can vary by an order of magnitude between presently dry (similar to 0.05 mm/yr) and well-defined late Pleistocene humid (similar to 0.5 mm/yr) conditions within an intemontane basin. Overall, we document a strong climatic impact on erosion rates and channel slopes. We suggest that rainfall reaching areas with steeper channel slopes in the orogen interior during wetter climate periods results in intensified sediment mass transport, which is primarily responsible for maintaining the balance between surface uplift, erosion, sediment routing and transient storage in the orogen.
Uplifted Neogene marine sediments and Quaternary fluvial terraces in the Mut Basin, southern Turkey, reveal a detailed history of surface uplift along the southern margin of the Central Anatolian plateau from the Late Miocene to the present. New surface exposure ages (Be-10, Al-26, and Ne-21) of gravels capping fluvial strath terraces located between 28 and 135 m above the Goksu River in the Mut Basin yield ages ranging from ca. 25 to 130 ka, corresponding to an average incision rate of 0.52 to 0.67 mm/yr. Published biostratigraphic data combined with new interpretations of the fossil assemblages from uplifted marine sediments reveal average uplift rates of 0.25 to 0.37 mm/yr since Late Miocene time (starting between 8 and 5.45 Ma), and 0.72 to 0.74 mm/yr after 1.66 to 1.62 Ma. Together with the terrace abandonment ages, the data imply 0.6 to 0.7 mm/yr uplift rates from 1.6 Ma to the present. The different post-Late Miocene and post-1.6 Ma uplift rates can imply increasing uplift rates through time, or multi-phased uplift with slow uplift or subsidence in between. Longitudinal profiles of rivers in the upper catchment of the Mut and Ermenek basins show no apparent lithologic or fault control on some knickpoints that occur at 1.2 to 1.5 km elevation, implying a transient response to a change in uplift rates. Projections of graded upper relict channel segments to the modern outlet, together with constraints from uplifted marine sediments, show that a slower incision/uplift rate of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr preceded the 0.7 mm/yr uplift rate. The river morphology and profile projections therefore reflect multi-phased uplift of the plateau margin, rather than steadily increasing uplift rates. Multi-phased uplift can be explained by lithospheric slab break-off and possibly also the arrival of the Eratosthenes Seamount at the collision zone south of Cyprus.
Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks
(2012)
We present a detailed analysis of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian peninsular using nonlinear spatial correlations. This analysis is carried out employing the tools of complex networks and a measure of nonlinear correlation for point processes such as rainfall, called event synchronization. This study provides valuable insights into the spatial organization, scales, and structure of the 90th and 94th percentile rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon (June-September). We furthermore analyse the influence of different critical synoptic atmospheric systems and the impact of the steep Himalayan topography on rainfall patterns. The presented method not only helps us in visualising the structure of the extreme-event rainfall fields, but also identifies the water vapor pathways and decadal-scale moisture sinks over the region. Furthermore a simple scheme based on complex networks is presented to decipher the spatial intricacies and temporal evolution of monsoonal rainfall patterns over the last 6 decades.
High Asian glacial landscapes have large variations in topographic relief and the size and steepness of snow accumulation areas. Associated differences in glacial cover and dynamics allow a first-order determination of the dominant processes shaping these landscapes. Here we provide a regional synthesis of the topography and flow characteristics of 287 glaciers across High Asia using digital elevation analysis and remotely sensed glacier surface velocities. Glaciers situated in low-relief areas on the Tibetan Plateau are mainly nourished by direct snowfall, have little or no debris cover, and have a relatively symmetrical distribution of velocities along their length. In contrast, avalanche-fed glaciers with steep accumulation areas, which occur at the deeply incised edges of the Tibetan Plateau, are heavily covered with supraglacial debris, and flow velocities are highest along short segments near their headwalls but greatly reduced along their debris-mantled lower parts. The downstream distribution of flow velocities suggests that the glacial erosion potential is progressively shifted upstream as accumulation areas get steeper and hillslope debris fluxes increase. Our data suggest that the coupling of hillslopes and glacial dynamics increases with topographic steepness and debris cover. The melt-lowering effect of thick debris cover allows the existence of glaciers even when they are located entirely below the snow line. However, slow velocities limit the erosion potential of such glaciers, and their main landscape-shaping contribution may simply be the evacuation of debris from the base of glacial headwalls, which inhibits the formation of scree slopes and thereby allows ongoing headwall retreat by periglacial hillslope processes. We propose a conceptual model in which glacially influenced plateau margins evolve from low-relief to high-relief landscapes with distinctive contributions of hillslope processes and glaciers to relief production and decay.
The northwest Argentine Andes constitute a premier natural laboratory to assess the complex interactions between isolated uplifts, orographic precipitation gradients, and related erosion and sedimentation patterns. Here we present new stratigraphic observations and age information from intermontane basin sediments to elucidate the Neogene to Quaternary shortening history and associated sediment dynamics of the broken Salta foreland. This part of the Andean orogen, which comprises an array of basement-cored range uplifts, is located at similar to 25 degrees S and lies to the east of the arid intraorogenic Altiplano/Puna plateau. In the Salta foreland, spatially and temporally disparate range uplift along steeply dipping inherited faults has resulted in foreland compartmentalization with steep basin-tobasin precipitation gradients. Sediment architecture and facies associations record a three-phase (similar to 10, similar to 5, and <2 Ma), east directed, yet unsystematic evolution of shortening, foreland fragmentation, and ensuing changes in precipitation and sediment transport. The provenance signatures of these deposits reflect the trapping of sediments in the intermontane basins of the Andean hinterland, as well as the evolution of a severed fluvial network. Present-day moisture supply to the hinterland is determined by range relief and basin elevation. The conspiring effects of range uplift and low rainfall help the entrapment and long-term storage of sediments, ultimately raising basin elevation in the hinterland, which may amplify aridification in the orogen interior.
Controversy about the current state and future evolution of Himalayan glaciers has been stirred up by erroneous statements in the fourth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(1,2). Variable retreat rates(3-6) and a paucity of glacial mass-balance data(7,8) make it difficult to develop a coherent picture of regional climate-change impacts in the region. Here, we report remotely-sensed frontal changes and surface velocities from glaciers in the greater Himalaya between 2000 and 2008 that provide evidence for strong spatial variations in glacier behaviour which are linked to topography and climate. More than 65% of the monsoon-influenced glaciers that we observed are retreating, but heavily debris-covered glaciers with stagnant low-gradient terminus regions typically have stable fronts. Debris-covered glaciers are common in the rugged central Himalaya, but they are almost absent in subdued landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau, where retreat rates are higher. In contrast, more than 50% of observed glaciers in the westerlies-influenced Karakoram region in the northwestern Himalaya are advancing or stable. Our study shows that there is no uniform response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change and highlights the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier retreat, an effect that has so far been neglected in predictions of future water availability(9,10) or global sea level(11).