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We analyze historical data of stock-market prices for multiple financial indices using the concept of delay-time averaging for the financial time series (FTS). The region of validity of our recent theoretical predictions [Cherstvy A G et al 2017 New J. Phys. 19 063045] for the standard and delayed time-averaged mean-squared 'displacements' (TAMSDs) of the historical FTS is extended to all lag times. As the first novel element, we perform extensive computer simulations of the stochastic differential equation describing geometric Brownian motion (GBM) which demonstrate a quantitative agreement with the analytical long-term price-evolution predictions in terms of the delayed TAMSD (for all stock-market indices in crisis-free times). Secondly, we present a robust procedure of determination of the model parameters of GBM via fitting the features of the price-evolution dynamics in the FTS for stocks and cryptocurrencies. The employed concept of single-trajectory-based time averaging can serve as a predictive tool (proxy) for a mathematically based assessment and rationalization of probabilistic trends in the evolution of stock-market prices.
Various mathematical Black-Scholes-Merton-like models of option pricing employ the paradigmatic stochastic process of geometric Brownian motion (GBM). The innate property of such models and of real stock-market prices is the roughly exponential growth of prices with time [on average, in crisis-free times]. We here explore the ensemble- and time averages of a multiplicative-noise stochastic process with power-law-like time-dependent volatility, sigma(t) similar to t(alpha), named scaled GBM (SGBM). For SGBM, the mean-squared displacement (MSD) computed for an ensemble of statistically equivalent trajectories can grow faster than exponentially in time, while the time-averaged MSD (TAMSD)-based on a sliding-window averaging along a single trajectory-is always linear at short lag times Delta. The proportionality factor between these the two averages of the time series is Delta/T at short lag times, where T is the trajectory length, similarly to GBM. This discrepancy of the scaling relations and pronounced nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD at Delta/T << 1 is a manifestation of weak ergodicity breaking for standard GBM and for SGBM with s (t)-modulation, the main focus of our analysis. The analytical predictions for the MSD and mean TAMSD for SGBM are in quantitative agreement with the results of stochastic computer simulations.
We investigate a diffusion process with a time-dependent diffusion coefficient, both exponentially increasing and decreasing in time, D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t). For this (hypothetical) nonstationary diffusion process we compute-both analytically and from extensive stochastic simulations-the behavior of the ensemble- and time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs) of the particles, both in the over- and underdamped limits. Simple asymptotic relations derived for the short- and long-time behaviors are shown to be in excellent agreement with the results of simulations. The diffusive characteristics in the presence of ageing are also considered, with dramatic differences of the over- versus underdamped regime. Our results for D(t)=D-0(e +/- 2 alpha t) extend and generalize the class of diffusive systems obeying scaled Brownian motion featuring a power-law-like variation of the diffusivity with time, D(t) similar to t(alpha-1). We also examine the logarithmically increasing diffusivity, D(t)=D(0)log[t/tau(0)], as another fundamental functional dependence (in addition to the power-law and exponential) and as an example of diffusivity slowly varying in time. One of the main conclusions is that the behavior of the massive particles is predominantly ergodic, while weak ergodicity breaking is repeatedly found for the time-dependent diffusion of the massless particles at short times. The latter manifests itself in the nonequivalence of the (both nonaged and aged) MSD and the mean time-averaged MSD. The current findings are potentially applicable to a class of physical systems out of thermal equilibrium where a rapid increase or decrease of the particles' diffusivity is inherently realized. One biological system potentially featuring all three types of time-dependent diffusion (power-law-like, exponential, and logarithmic) is water diffusion in the brain tissues, as we thoroughly discuss in the end.
How different are the results of constant-rate resetting of anomalous-diffusion processes in terms of their ensemble-averaged versus time-averaged mean-squared displacements (MSDs versus TAMSDs) and how does stochastic resetting impact nonergodicity? We examine, both analytically and by simulations, the implications of resetting on the MSD- and TAMSD-based spreading dynamics of particles executing fractional Brownian motion (FBM) with a long-time memory, heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with a power-law space-dependent diffusivity D(x) = D0|x|gamma and their "combined" process of HDP-FBM. We find, inter alia, that the resetting dynamics of originally ergodic FBM for superdiffusive Hurst exponents develops disparities in scaling and magnitudes of the MSDs and mean TAMSDs indicating weak ergodicity breaking. For subdiffusive HDPs we also quantify the nonequivalence of the MSD and TAMSD and observe a new trimodal form of the probability density function. For reset FBM, HDPs and HDP-FBM we compute analytically and verify by simulations the short-time MSD and TAMSD asymptotes and long-time plateaus reminiscent of those for processes under confinement. We show that certain characteristics of these reset processes are functionally similar despite a different stochastic nature of their nonreset variants. Importantly, we discover nonmonotonicity of the ergodicitybreaking parameter EB as a function of the resetting rate r. For all reset processes studied we unveil a pronounced resetting-induced nonergodicity with a maximum of EB at intermediate r and EB similar to(1/r )-decay at large r. Alongside the emerging MSD-versus-TAMSD disparity, this r-dependence of EB can be an experimentally testable prediction. We conclude by discussing some implications to experimental systems featuring resetting dynamics.