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Institute
Sedimentary proxy records constitute a significant portion of the recorded evidence that allows us to investigate paleoclimatic conditions and variability. However, uncertainties in the dating of proxy archives limit our ability to fix the timing of past events and interpret proxy record intercomparisons. While there are various age-modeling approaches to improve the estimation of the age-depth relations of archives, relatively little focus has been placed on the propagation of the age (and radiocarbon calibration) uncertainties into the final proxy record.
We present a generic Bayesian framework to estimate proxy records along with their associated uncertainty, starting with the radiometric age-depth and proxy-depth measurements, and a radiometric calibration curve if required. We provide analytical expressions for the posterior proxy probability distributions at any given calendar age, from which the expected proxy values and their uncertainty can be estimated. We illustrate our method using two synthetic data sets and then use it to construct the proxy records for groundwater inflow and surface erosion from Lonar lake in central India.
Our analysis reveals interrelations between the uncertainty of the proxy record over time and the variance of proxies along the depth of the archive. For the Lonar lake proxies, we show that, rather than the age uncertainties, it is the proxy variance combined with calibration uncertainty that accounts for most of the final uncertainty. We represent the proxy records as probability distributions on a precise, error-free timescale that makes further time series analyses and intercomparisons of proxies relatively simple and clear. Our approach provides a coherent understanding of age uncertainties within sedimentary proxy records that involve radiometric dating. It can be potentially used within existing age modeling structures to bring forth a reliable and consistent framework for proxy record estimation.
Recurrence-plot-based recurrence networks are an approach used to analyze time series using a complex networks theory. In both approaches - recurrence plots and recurrence networks -, a threshold to identify recurrent states is required. The selection of the threshold is important in order to avoid bias of the recurrence network results. In this paper, we propose a novel method to choose a recurrence threshold adaptively. We show a comparison between the constant threshold and adaptive threshold cases to study period-chaos and even period-period transitions in the dynamics of a prototypical model system. This novel method is then used to identify climate transitions from a lake sediment record.
High resolution isotopic (delta O-18 and delta C-13) investigations on endogenic carbonates (calcite/aragonite) from Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalaya show dramatic fluctuations during the late glacial and the early Holocene, and a persistent enrichment trend during the late Holocene. Changes in this lake are largely governed by the [input (meltwater + monsoon precipitation)/evaporationj (WE) ratio, also reflected in changes in the carbonate mineralogy with aragonite being formed during periods of lowest I/E. Using new isotopic data on endogenic carbonates in combination with the available data on geochemistry, mineralogy, and reconstructed mean annual precipitation, we demonstrate that the late glacial and early Holocene carbonate delta O-18 variability resulted from fluctuating Indian summer monsoon (ISM) precipitation in NW Himalaya. This region experienced increasing ISM precipitation between ca. 13.1 and 11.7 cal ka and highest ISM precipitation during the early Holocene (11.2-8.5 cal ka). However, during the late Holocene, evaporation was the dominant control on the carbonate delta O-18. Regional comparison of reconstructed hydrological changes from Tso Moriri Lake with other archives from the Asian summer monsoon and westerlies domain shows that the intensified westerly influence that resulted in higher lake levels (after 8 cal ka) in central Asia was not strongly felt in NW Himalaya. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We present the results of our investigations on the radiocarbon dated core sediments from the Lake Tso Moriri, NW Himalaya aimed at reconstructing palaeohydrological changes in this climatically sensitive region. Based on the detailed geochemical, mineralogical and sedimentological analysis, we recognise several short-term fluctuations superimposed upon seven major palaeohydrological stages identified in this lake since similar to 26 cal ka. Stage I (>20.2 cal ka): shallow lake characterised by input of coarse-grained detrital sediments; Stage II (20.2-16.4 cal ka): lake deepening and intensification of this trend ca. 18 cal ka; Stage III (16.4-11.2 cal ka): rising lake levels with a short term wet phase (13.1-11.7 cal ka); Stage IV (11.2-8.5 cal ka): early Holocene hydrological maxima and highest lake levels inferred to have resulted from early Holocene Indian monsoon intensification, as records from central Asia indicate weaker westerlies during this interval; Stage V (8.5-5.5 cal ka): mid-Holocene climate deterioration; Stage VI (5.5-2.7 cal ka): progressive lowering of lake level; Stage VII (2.7-0 cal ka): onset of modern conditions. The reconstructed hydrological variability in Lake Tso Moriri is governed by temperature changes (meltwater inflow) and monsoon precipitation (increased runoff). A regional comparison shows considerable differences with other palaeorecords from peninsular India during late Holocene. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
As part of ongoing research on Holocene lacustrine sediments of Lonar Crater Lake (central India), pollen assemblages in lake surface sediment and soil samples were studied to unravel pollenevegetation relationships, including pollen transport processes in tropical dry deciduous forest vegetation. Furthermore, palynological results were compared with geochemical proxies and spatial features of the lake sediments and the vegetation. The obtained data reveal strong differences in pollen assemblages and pollen concentrations between and within the studied trapping media. Local arboreal vegetation is adequately represented in the soil samples, but is less represented in the lake surface sediment samples. The composition of the lacustrine pollen assemblages is mainly influenced by patterns of transport through surface and channel runoff. Besides the relevance of our new data for reliable interpretation of fossil pollen spectra extracted from Lonar sediment cores, the results of this study are of general importance for the understanding of Quaternary pollen assemblages from tropical lacustrine archives, as well as for the implementation and selection of suitable approaches for quantitative pollen based environmental reconstructions in south Asia and beyond. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
In the present study, we report the results of comprehensive amino acid (AA) analyses of four Indian lakes from different climate regimes. We focus on the investigation of sediment cores retrieved from the lakes but data of modern sediment as well as vascular plant, soil, and suspended particulate matter samples from individual lakes are also presented. Commonly used degradation and organic matter source indices are tested for their applicability to the lake sediments, and we discuss potential reasons for possible limitations. A principal component analysis including the monomeric AA composition of organic matter of all analysed samples indicates that differences in organic matter sources and the environmental properties of the individual lakes are responsible for the major variability in monomeric AA distribution of the different samples. However, the PCA also gives a factor that most probably separates the samples according to their state of organic matter degradation. Using the factor loadings of the individual AA monomers, we calculate a lake sediment degradation index (LI) that might be applicable to other palaeo-lake investigations. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A better understanding of past variations of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), that plays a vital role for the still largely agro-based economy in India, can lead to a better assessment of its potential impact under global climate change scenarios. However, our knowledge of spatiotemporal patterns of ISM strength is limited due to the lack of high-resolution, continental paleohydrological records. Here, we reconstruct centennial-scale hydrological variability during the Holocene associated to changes in the intensity of the ISM based on a record of lipid biomarker abundances and compound-specific stable isotopic composition of a 10 m long sediment core from saline alkaline Lonar Lake, situated in the core 'monsoon zone' of central India.
We identified three main periods of distinct hydrology during the Holocene in central India. The period between 10.1 and 6 cal ka BP was likely the wettest during the Holocene. Lower average chain length (ACL) index values (29.4-28.6) and negative delta C-13(wax) values (-34.8 parts per thousand to -27.8 parts per thousand) of leaf wax n-alkanes indicate the dominance of woody C-3 vegetation in the catchment, and negative delta D-wax values (concentration weighted average) (-171 parts per thousand to -147 parts per thousand) suggest a wet period due to an intensified monsoon. After 6 cal ka BP, a gradual shift to less negative delta C-13(wax) values (particularly for the grass derived n-C-31) and appearance of the triterpene lipid tetrahymanol, generally considered as a marker for salinity and water column stratification, mark the onset of drier conditions. At 5.1 cal ka BP an increasing flux of leaf wax n-alkanes along with the highest flux of tetrahymanol indicate a major lowering of the lake level. Between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, we find evidence for a transition to arid conditions, indicated by high and strongly variable tetrahymanol flux. In addition, a pronounced shift to less negative delta C-13(wax) values, in particular for n-C-31 (-25.2 parts per thousand to -22.8 parts per thousand), during this period indicates a change of dominant vegetation to C-4 grasses. In agreement with other proxy data, such as deposition of evaporite minerals, we interpret this period to reflect the driest conditions in the region during the last 10.1 ka. This transition led to protracted late Holocene arid conditions after 4 ka with the presence of a permanent saline lake, supported by the sustained presence of tetrahymanol and more positive average delta D-wax values (-122 parts per thousand to -141 parts per thousand). A late Holocene peak of cyanobacterial biomarker input at 1.3 cal ka BP might represent an event of lake eutrophication, possibly due to human impact and the onset of cattle/livestock farming in the catchment.
A unique feature of our record is the presence of a distinct transitional period between 4.8 and 4 cal ka BP, which was characterized by some of the most negative delta D-wax values during the Holocene (up to -180 parts per thousand), when all other proxy data indicate the driest conditions during the Holocene. These negative delta D-wax values can as such most reasonably be explained by a shift in moisture source area and/or pathways or rainfall seasonality during this transitional period. We hypothesize that orbital induced weakening of the summer solar insolation and associated reorganization of the general atmospheric circulation, as a possible southward displacement of the tropical rainbelt, led to an unstable hydroclimate in central India between 4.8 and 4 ka.
We use multiple proxies (delta C-13(org), delta N-15(org), C/N, amino acids, biogenic silica) from the catchment, lake surface and core sediments to (i) identify the factors influencing conventional lacustrine primary productivity (LPP) indicators (isotopic covariance, C/N) in the sediments from the pristine high altitude Tso Moriri Lake during the late Quaternary, (ii) compare C/N and bulk organic isotopic data from the core with available biogenic silica and amino acid data to test the applicability of conventional LPP indicators during the late Quaternary, and (iii) evaluate the degree of sensitivity of LPP to climate change. Our results show that climate driven changes in water salinity and source water changes have influenced the isotopic (delta C-13, delta N-15) content of the lake water and hence the isotopic composition of bulk organic matter. Erosion has also played a role in masking the LPP as the catchment sediments from this high altitude lake have low C/N thereby casting doubt on the effectiveness of this parameter as an LPP indicator. Independent LPP indicators in Tso Moriri sediments clearly indicate that it is driven by climate change and increases during warmer periods. However, our data show that the LPP in recent times is not much higher than during the early Holocene, ruling out any impact of recent warming on LPP and therefore the possibility of large carbon sequestration in high altitude oligotrophic lakes. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In general, a moderate drying trend is observed in mid-latitude arid Central Asia since the Mid-Holocene, attributed to the progressively weakening influence of the mid-latitude Westerlies on regional climate. However, as the spatio-temporal pattern of this development and the underlying climatic mechanisms are yet not fully understood, new high-resolution paleoclimate records from this region are needed. Within this study, a sediment core from Lake Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) was investigated using sedimentological, (bio) geochemical, isotopic, and palynological analyses, aiming at reconstructing regional climate development during the last 6000 years. Biogeochemical data, mainly reflecting summer moisture conditions, indicate predominantly wet conditions until 4950 cal. yr BP, succeeded by a pronounced dry interval between 4950 and 3900 cal. yr BP. In the following, a return to wet conditions and a subsequent moderate drying trend until present times are observed. This is consistent with other regional paleoclimate records and likely reflects the gradual Late Holocene diminishment of the amount of summer moisture provided by the mid-latitude Westerlies. However, climate impact of the Westerlies was apparently not only restricted to the summer season but also significant during winter as indicated by recurrent episodes of enhanced allochthonous input through snowmelt, occurring before 6000 cal. yr BP and at 5100-4350, 3450-2850, and 1900-1500 cal. yr BP. The distinct similar to 1500year periodicity of these episodes of increased winter precipitation in Central Kyrgyzstan resembles similar cyclicities observed in paleoclimate records around the North Atlantic, likely indicating a hemispheric-scale climatic teleconnection and an impact of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in Central Asia.
High resolution reconstructions of the India Summer Monsoon (ISM) are essential to identify regionally different patterns of climate change and refine predictive models. We find opposing trends of hydrological proxies between northern (Sahiya cave stalagmite) and central India (Lonar Lake) between 100 and 1300 CE with the strongest anti-correlation between 810 and 1300 CE. The apparently contradictory data raise the question if these are related to widely different regional precipitation patterns or reflect human influence in/around the Lonar Lake. By comparing multiproxy data with historical records, we demonstrate that only the organic proxies in the Lonar Lake show evidence of anthropogenic impact. However, evaporite data (mineralogy and delta O-18) are indicative of precipitation/evaporation (P/E) into the Lonar Lake. Back-trajectories of air-mass circulation over northern and central India show that the relative contribution of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) branch of the ISM is crucial for determining the delta O-18 of carbonate proxies only in north India, whereas central India is affected significantly by the Arabian Sea (AS) branch of the ISM. We conclude that the delta O-18 of evaporative carbonates in the Lonar Lake reflects P/E and, in the interval under consideration, is not influenced by source water changes. The opposing trend between central and northern India can be explained by (i) persistent multidecadal droughts over central India between 810 and 1300 CE that provided an effective mechanism for strengthening sub-tropical westerly winds resulting in enhancement of wintertime (non-monsoonal) rainfall over northern parts of the Indian subcontinent, and/or (ii) increased moisture influx to northern India from the depleted BoB source waters.