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Potential impact of effects on reproductive attributes induced by herbicides on a plant community
(2018)
Current herbicide risk assessment guidelines for nontarget terrestrial plants require testing effects on young, vulnerable life stages (i.e., seedling emergence [and subsequent growth] and vegetative vigor [growth and dry wt]) but not directly on the reproduction of plants. However, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has proposed that effects on reproduction might be considered when evaluating the potential effects on plants. We adapted the plant community model for grassland (IBC-grass) to give insight into the current debate on the sensitivity of reproductive versus vegetative endpoints in ecological risk assessment. In an extensive sensitivity analysis of this model, we compared plant attributes potentially affected by herbicides and the consequences for long-term plant population dynamics and plant diversity. This evaluation was implemented by reducing reproductive as well as vegetative endpoints by certain percentages (e.g., 10-90%) as a theoretical assumption. Plant mortality and seed sterility (i.e., inability of seeds to germinate) were the most sensitive attributes. Our results indicated that effects on seed production at off-field exposure rates must be very strong to have an impact on the risk assessment. Otherwise, effects on seed production are compensated for by the soil seed bank. The present study highlights the usefulness of community level modeling studies to support regulators in their decisions on the appropriate risk assessment endpoints and provides confidence in their assessments. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1707-1722. (c) 2018 SETAC
Predicting the breeding success of large raptors in arid southern Africa : a first assessment
(2006)
Raptors are often priorities for conservation efforts and breeding success is a target measure for assessing their conservation status. The breeding success of large raptors in and southern Africa is thought to be higher in years of high rainfall. While this correlation has been found in several studies, it has not yet been shown for data from a wider geographical area. In conservation research, it is important to explore the differences between spatially- separated populations to estimate and to compare their conservation status, and to deduce specific management strategies. Using a theoretical approach, we develop a simplistic model to explain the breeding success-rainfall relationship in large African raptors at larger spatial scales. Secondly, we validate this model and we show that the inclusion of field data leads to consistent predictions. In particular, we recommend that the average size of the 'effective territory' should be included in the relationship between annual rainfall and breeding success of raptors in and southern Africa. Accordingly, we suggest that breeding success is a function of precipitation and inter- nest distance. We present a new measure of territory quality depending on rainfall and territory size. We suggest that our model provides a useful first approach to assess breeding success in large raptors of and southern Africa. However, we strongly emphasise the need to gather more data to further verify our model. A general problem in conservation research is to compare the status of populations assessed in different study areas under changing environmental conditions. Our simplistic approach indicates that this problem can be overcome by using a weighted evaluation of a target measure (i.e. breeding success), taking regional differences into account
Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment.
Our findings indicate that with regard to fire management a clear distinction between mesic and more arid savannas is necessary: While the frequency of fires is of relevance for mesic savannas, we recommend a fire management focussing on the timing of fire for semi-arid and arid savannas. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The small fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) shows a heterogeneous spatial distribution in the intermediate host (Microtus arvalis). To identify the ecological processes responsible for this heterogeneity, we developed a spatially explicit simulation model. The model combines individual-based (foxes, Vulpes vulpes) and grid- based (voles) techniques to simulate the infections in both intermediate and definite host. If host populations are homogeneously mixed, the model reproduces field data for parasite prevalence only for a limited number of parameter combinations. As ecological parameters inevitably vary to a certain degree, we discarded the homogeneous mixing model as insufficient to gain insight into the ecology of the fox tapeworm cycle. We analysed five different model scenarios, each focussing on an ecological process that might be responsible for the heterogeneous spatial distribution of E multilocularis in the intermediate host. Field studies revealed that the prevalence ratio between intermediate and definite host remains stable over a wide range of ecological conditions. Thus, by varying the parameters in simulation experiments, we used the robustness of the agreement between field data and model output as quality criterion for the five scenarios. Only one of the five scenarios was found to reproduce the prevalence ratio over a sufficient range of parameter combinations. In the accentuated scenario most tapeworm eggs die due to bad environmental conditions before they cause infections in the intermediate host. This scenario is supported by the known sensitivity of tapeworm eggs to high temperatures and dry conditions. The identified process is likely to lead to a heterogeneous availability of infective eggs and thus to a clumped distribution of infected intermediate hosts. In conclusion, areas with humid conditions and low temperatures must be pointed out as high risk areas for human exposure to E. multilocularis eggs as well. (C) 2004 on behalf of Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality.
3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations.
4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics.
Progressive habitat fragmentation threatens plant species with narrow habitat requirements. While local environmental conditions define population growth rates and recruitment success at the patch level, dispersal is critical for population viability at the landscape scale. Identifying the dynamics of plant meta-populations is often confounded by the uncertainty about soil-stored population compartments. We combined a landscape-scale assessment of an amphibious plant's population structure with measurements of dispersal complexity in time to track dispersal and putative shifts in functional connectivity. Using 13 microsatellite markers, we analyzed the genetic structure of extant Oenanthe aquatica populations and their soil seed banks in a kettle hole system to uncover hidden connectivity among populations in time and space. Considerable spatial genetic structure and isolation-by-distance suggest limited gene flow between sites. Spatial isolation and patch size showed minor effects on genetic diversity. Genetic similarity found among extant populations and their seed banks suggests increased local recruitment, despite some evidence of migration and recent colonization. Results indicate stepping-stone dispersal across adjacent populations. Among permanent and ephemeral demes the resulting meta-population demography could be determined by source-sink dynamics. Overall, these spatiotemporal connectivity patterns support mainland-island dynamics in our system, highlighting the importance of persistent seed banks as enduring sources of genetic diversity.
The long-term persistence of populations and species depends on the successful recruitment of individuals. The generative recruitment of plants may be limited by a lack of suitable germination and establishment conditions. Establishment limitation may especially be caused by the competitive effect of surrounding dense vegetation, which is believed to restrict the recruitment success of many plant species to small open patches ('safe sites'). We conducted experiments to clarify the roles of germination and seedling establishment as limiting processes in the recruitment of Juncus atratus Krock., a rare and threatened herbaceous perennial river corridor plant in Central Europe. Light intensity had a positive effect on germination. However, some seedlings emerged even in total darkness and the germination rate at 1% light intensity was more than half of that at 60% light intensity. Seedling establishment in the field after 10 weeks was 30% on bare ground, but it was close to zero in grassland. Establishment in the growth chamber after 8 weeks was close to 75% for seedlings that germinated underwater, but only about 35% for seedlings that germinated afloat. Furthermore, establishment decreased with flooding duration on bare ground, but increased with flooding duration in grassland. These data indicate that establishment, rather than germination, is a critical life stage in Central European populations off. atratus. They furthermore indicate that the competition of surrounding vegetation for water limits seedling establishment under field conditions without flooding, largely restricting establishment success to bare ground habitats. In contrast, grassland is more suitable for the recruitment off. atratus than bare ground under prolonged flooding. Grassland may facilitate the establishment off. atratus seedlings during long- lasting floods by supplying oxygen to the soil through aerenchyma. The shift from competition to facilitation in grassland occurred after 30 days of flooding, i.e. within the ontogeny of individual plants. The specific recruitment requirements off. arrows may be a main cause of its rarity in modern Central Europe. In order to prevent regional extinction off. atratus, we suggest maintaining or re-establishing natural hydrodynamics in the species' habitats.
Small livestock is an important resource for rural human populations in dry climates. How strongly will climate change affect the capacity of the rangeland? We used hierarchical modelling to scale quantitatively the growth of shrubs and annual plants, the main food of sheep and goats, to the landscape extent in the eastern Mediterranean region. Without grazing, productivity increased in a sigmoid way with mean annual precipitation. Grazing reduced productivity more strongly the drier the landscape. At a point just under the stocking capacity of the vegetation, productivity declined precipitously with more intense grazing due to a lack of seed production of annuals. We repeated simulations with precipitation patterns projected by two contrasting IPCC scenarios. Compared to results based on historic patterns, productivity and stocking capacity did not differ in most cases. Thus, grazing intensity remains the stronger impact on landscape productivity in this dry region even in the future.