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Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications.
This study analyses some hydrological driving forces and their interrelation with surface-flow initiation in a semiarid Caatinga basin (12km(2)), Northeastern Brazil. During the analysis period (2005 - 2014), 118 events with precipitation higher than 10mm were monitored, providing 45 events with runoff, 25 with negligible runoff and 49 without runoff. To verify the dominant processes, 179 on-site measurements of saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) were conducted. The results showed that annual runoff coefficient lay below 0.5% and discharge at the outlet has only occurred four days per annum on average, providing an insight to the surface-water scarcity of the Caatinga biome. The most relevant variables to explain runoff initiation were total precipitation and maximum 60-min rainfall intensity (I-60). Runoff always occurred when rainfall surpassed 31mm, but it never occurred for rainfall below 14mm or for I-60 below 12mmh(-1). The fact that the duration of the critical intensity is similar to the basin concentration time (65min) and that the infiltration threshold value approaches the river-bank saturated hydraulic conductivity support the assumption that Hortonian runoff prevails. However, none of the analysed variables (total or precedent precipitation, soil moisture content, rainfall intensities or rainfall duration) has been able to explain the runoff initiation in all monitored events: the best criteria, e.g. failed to explain 27% of the events. It is possible that surface-flow initiation in the Caatinga biome is strongly influenced by the root-system dynamics, which changes macro-porosity status and, therefore, initial abstraction. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.