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Aggregate and individual replication probability within an explicit model of the research process
(2011)
We study a model of the research process in which the true effect size, the replication jitter due to changes in experimental procedure, and the statistical error of effect size measurement are all normally distributed random variables. Within this model, we analyze the probability of successfully replicating an initial experimental result by obtaining either a statistically significant result in the same direction or any effect in that direction. We analyze both the probability of successfully replicating a particular experimental effect (i.e., the individual replication probability) and the average probability of successful replication across different studies within some research context (i.e., the aggregate replication probability), and we identify the conditions under which the latter can be approximated using the formulas of Killeen (2005a, 2007). We show how both of these probabilities depend on parameters of the research context that would rarely be known in practice. In addition, we show that the statistical uncertainty associated with the size of an initial observed effect would often prevent accurate estimation of the desired individual replication probability even if these research context parameters were known exactly. We conclude that accurate estimates of replication probability are generally unattainable.
Whereas many cognitive tasks show pronounced aging effects, even in healthy older adults, other tasks seem more resilient to aging. A small number of recent studies suggests that number comparison is possibly one of the abilities that remain unaltered across the life span. We investigated the ability to compare single-digit numbers in young (19-39 years; n = 39) and healthy older (65-79 years; n = 39) adults in considerable detail, analyzing accuracy as well as mean and variance of their response time, together with several other well-established hallmarks of numerical comparison. Using a recent comprehensive process model that parsimoniously accounts quantitatively for many aspects of number comparison (Reike & Schwarz, 2016), we address two fundamental problems in the comparison of older to young adults in numerical comparison tasks: (a) to adequately correct speed measures for different levels of accuracy (older participants were significantly more accurate than young participants), and (b) to distinguish between general sensory and motor slowing on the one hand, as opposed to a specific age-related decline in the efficiency to retrieve and compare numerical magnitude representations. Our results represent strong evidence that healthy older adults compare magnitudes as efficiently as young adults, when the measure of efficiency is uncontaminated by strategic speed-accuracy trade-offs and by sensory and motor stages that are not related to numerical comparison per se. At the same time, older adults aim at a significantly higher accuracy level (risk aversion), which necessarily prolongs processing time, and they also show the well-documented general decline in sensory and/or motor functions.
Die genaue Anzahl einsatzfähiger Nuklearsprengköpfe Pakistans, einer nach den Standards des internationalen Regimes zur Nichtweiterverbreitung von Kernwaffen (NPT) illegalen Atommacht, ist nicht bekannt. Hans Kristensen, Direktor des Nuclear Information Project der unabhängigen Federation of American Scientists und Kenner der Materie, rechnet mit 90 bis 110, Tendenz: kontinuierlich steigend. Diese Waffen befinden sich in einem Land, das seit Jahrzehnten vom Militär beherrscht wird, das aufgrund der extremen Armut einer Mehrheit der Bevölkerung erheblichen sozialen Sprengstoff in sich birgt und in dem sich Guerilla-Angriffe separatistischer paschtunischer Taliban auch gegen Militärbasen richten, die mit den Kernstreitkräften des Landes in Verbindung gebracht werden. Experten warnen daher vor der Möglichkeit eines fundamental-islamistischen Umsturzes ebenso wie vor der Gefahr, dass einzelne Atomwaffen in die Hände terroristischer Gruppen geraten könnten. Was den letzteren Aspekt anbetrifft, so beruhigt es auch nicht, wenn die pakistanischen Taliban – wie im Mai 2011 – erklären, dass „Pakistan die einzige muslimische Atommacht“ sei und man an diesem Status nichts ändern wolle.
Neuroscientific studies have shown that brain activity correlated with a decision to move can be observed before a person reports being consciously aware of having made that decision (e.g., Libet, Gleason, Wright, & Pearl, 1983; Soon, Brass, Heinze, & Haynes, 2008). Given that a later event (i.e., conscious awareness) cannot cause an earlier one (i.e., decision-related brain activity), such results have been interpreted as evidence that decisions are made unconsciously (e.g., Libet, 1985). We argue that this interpretation depends upon an all-or-none view of consciousness, and we offer an alternative interpretation of the early decision-related brain activity based on models in which conscious awareness of the decision to move develops gradually up to the level of a reporting criterion. Under this interpretation, the early brain activity reflects sub-criterion levels of awareness rather than complete absence of awareness and thus does not suggest that decisions are made unconsciously.
Following the classical work of Moyer and Landauer (1967), experimental studies investigating the way in which humans process and compare symbolic numerical information regularly used one of two experimental designs. In selection tasks, two numbers are presented, and the task of the participant is to select (for example) the larger one. In classification tasks, a single number is presented, and the participant decides if it is smaller or larger than a predefined standard. Many findings obtained with these paradigms fit in well with the notion of a mental analog representation, or an Approximate Number System (ANS; e.g., Piazza 2010). The ANS is often conceptualized metaphorically as a mental number line, and data from both paradigms are well accounted for by diffusion models based on the stochastic accumulation of noisy partial numerical information over time. The present study investigated a categorization paradigm in which participants decided if a number presented falls into a numerically defined central category. We show that number categorization yields a highly regular, yet considerably more complex pattern of decision times and error rates as compared to the simple monotone relations obtained in traditional selection and classification tasks. We also show that (and how) standard diffusion models of number comparison can be adapted so as to account for mean and standard deviations of all RTs and for error rates in considerable quantitative detail. We conclude that just as traditional number comparison, the more complex process of categorizing numbers conforms well with basic notions of the ANS.
Comparing continuous and discrete birthday coincidences : "Same-Day" versus "Within 24 Hours"
(2010)
In its classical form the famous birthday problem (Feller 1968; Mosteller 1987) addresses coincidences within a discrete sample space, looking at births that fall on the same calendar day. However, coincidence phenomena often arise in situations in which it is more natural to consider a continuous-time parameter. We first describe an elementary variant of the classical problem in continuous time, and then derive and illustrate close approximate relations that exist between the discrete and the continuous formulations.
Using a large representative database (12,902 matches from the top professional football league in Germany), I show that the number (441) of two-penalty matches is larger than expected by chance, and that among these 441 matches there are considerably more matches in which each team is awarded one penalty than would be expected on the basis of independent penalty kick decisions (odds ratio=11.2, relative risk=6.34). Additional analyses based on the score in the match before a penalty is awarded and on the timing of penalties, suggest that awarding a first penalty to one team raises the referee's penalty evidence criterion for the same team, and lowers the corresponding criterion for the other team.
We describe a mathematically simple yet precise model of activation suppression that can explain the negative-going delta plots often observed in standard Simon tasks. The model postulates a race between the identification of the relevant stimulus attribute and the suppression of irrelevant location-based activation, with the irrelevant activation only having an effect if the irrelevant activation is still present at the moment when central processing of the relevant attribute starts. The model can be fitted by maximum likelihood to observed distributions of RTs in congruent and incongruent trials, and it provides good fits to two previously-reported data sets with plausible parameter values. R and MATLAB software for use with the model is provided.
Dissociations between reaction times and temporal order judgments : a diffusion model approach
(2006)
A diffusion model for simple reaction time (RT) and temporal order judgment (TOJ) tasks was developed to account for a commonly observed dissociation between these 2 tasks: Most stimulus manipulations (e.g., intensity) have larger effects in RT tasks than in TOJ tasks. The model assumes that a detection criterion determines the level of sensory evidence needed to conclude that a stimulus has been presented. Analysis of the performance that would be achieved with different possible criterion settings revealed that performance was optimal with a lower criterion setting for the TOJ task than for the RT task. In addition, the model predicts that effects of stimulus manipulations should increase with the size of the detection criterion. Thus, the model suggests that commonly observed dissociations between RT and TOJ tasks may simply be due to performance optimization in the face of conflicting task demands