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- induced seismicity (5)
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Analysis of past and present stimulation projects reveals that the temporal evolution and growth of maximum observed moment magnitudes may be linked directly to the injected fluid volume and hydraulic energy. Overall evolution of seismic moment seems independent of the tectonic stress regime and is most likely governed by reservoir specific parameters, such as the preexisting structural inventory. Data suggest that magnitudes can grow either in a stable way, indicating the constant propagation of self-arrested ruptures, or unbound, for which the maximum magnitude is only limited by the size of tectonic faults and fault connectivity. Transition between the two states may occur at any time during injection or not at all. Monitoring and traffic light systems used during stimulations need to account for the possibility of unstable rupture propagation from the very beginning of injection by observing the entire seismicity evolution in near-real time and at high resolution for an immediate reaction in injection strategy.
Plain Language Summary Predicting and controlling the size of earthquakes caused by fluid injection is currently the major concern of many projects associated with geothermal energy production. Here, we analyze the magnitude and seismic moment evolution with injection parameters for prominent geothermal and scientific projects to date. Evolution of seismicity seems to be largely independent of the tectonic stress background and seemingly depends on reservoir specific characteristics. We find that the maximum observed magnitudes relate linearly to the injected volume or hydraulic energy. A linear relation suggests stable growth of induced ruptures, as predicted by current models, or rupture growth may no longer depend on the stimulated volume but on tectonics. A system may change between the two states during the course of fluid injection. Close-by and high-resolution monitoring of seismic and hydraulic parameters in near-real time may help identify these fundamental changes in ample time to change injection strategy and manage maximum magnitudes.
Preparatory mechanisms accompanying or leading to nucleation of larger earthquakes have been observed at both laboratory and field scales, but conditions favoring the occurrence of observable preparatory processes are still largely unknown. In particular, it remains a matter of debate why some earthquakes occur spontaneously without noticeable precursors as opposed to events that are preceded by an extended failure process. In this study, we have generated new high-resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 M-L > 2.5 earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California. To this end, a seismicity catalog of the 11 days framing each large event was created. We selected 20 sequences sampling different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events.
Earthquake source parameters such as seismic stress drop and corner frequency are observed to vary widely, leading to persistent discussion on potential scaling of stress drop and event size. Physical mechanisms that govern stress drop variations arc difficult to evaluate in nature and are more readily studied in controlled laboratory experiments. We perform two stick-slip experiments on fractured (rough) and cut (smooth) Westerly granite samples to explore fault roughness effects on acoustic emission (AE) source parameters. We separate large stick-slip events that generally saturate the seismic recording system from populations of smaller AE events which are sensitive to fault stresses prior to slip. AE event populations show many similarities to natural seismicity and may be interpreted as laboratory equivalent of natural microseismic events. We then compare the temporal evolution of mechanical data such as measured stress release during slip to temporal changes in stress drops derived from Alis using the spectral ratio technique. We report on two primary observations: (1) In contrast to most case studies for natural earthquakes, we observe a strong increase in seismic stress drop with AE size. (2) The scaling of stress drop with magnitude is governed by fault roughness, whereby the rough fault shows a more rapid increase of the stress drop magnitude relation with progressing large stick-slip events than the smooth fault. The overall range of AE sizes on the rough surface is influenced by both the average grain size and the width of the fault core. The magnitudes of the smallest AE events on smooth faults may also be governed by grain size. However, AEs significantly grow beyond peak roughness and the width of the fault core. Our laboratory tests highlight that source parameters vary substantially in the presence of fault zone heterogeneity (i.e. roughness and narrow grain size distribution), which may affect seismic energy partitioning and static stress drops of small and large AE events.
We study triggering processes in triaxial compression experiments under a constant displacement rate on sandstone and granite samples using spatially located acoustic emission events and their focal mechanisms. We present strong evidence that event-event triggering plays an important role in the presence of large-scale or macrocopic imperfections, while such triggering is basically absent if no significant imperfections are present. In the former case, we recover all established empirical relations of aftershock seismicity including the Gutenberg-Richter relation, a modified version of the Omori-Utsu relation and the productivity relation-despite the fact that the activity is dominated by compaction-type events and triggering cascades have a swarmlike topology. For the Gutenberg-Richter relations, we find that the b value is smaller for triggered events compared to background events. Moreover, we show that triggered acoustic emission events have a focal mechanism much more similar to their associated trigger than expected by chance.
Natural earthquakes often have very few observable foreshocks which significantly complicates tracking potential preparatory processes. To better characterize expected preparatory processes before failures, we study stick-slip events in a series of triaxial compression tests on faulted Westerly granite samples. We focus on the influence of fault roughness on the duration and magnitude of recordable precursors before large stick-slip failure. Rupture preparation in the experiments is detectable over long time scales and involves acoustic emission (AE) and aseismic deformation events. Preparatory fault slip is found to be accelerating during the entire pre-failure loading period, and is accompanied by increasing AE rates punctuated by distinct activity spikes associated with large slip events. Damage evolution across the fault zones and surrounding wall rocks is manifested by precursory decrease of seismic b-values and spatial correlation dimensions. Peaks in spatial event correlation suggest that large slip initiation occurs by failure of multiple asperities. Shear strain estimated from AE data represents only a small fraction (< 1%) of total shear strain accumulated during the preparation phase, implying that most precursory deformation is aseismic. The relative contribution of aseismic deformation is amplified by larger fault roughness. Similarly, seismic coupling is larger for smooth saw-cut faults compared to rough faults. The laboratory observations point towards a long-lasting and continuous preparation process leading to failure and large seismic events. The strain partitioning between aseismic and observable seismic signatures depends on fault structure and instrument resolution.
We analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity during a sequence of moderate (an M-w 4.7 foreshock and M-w 5.8 mainshock) earthquakes occurring in September 2019 at the transition between a creeping and a locked segment of the North Anatolian fault in the central Sea of Marmara, northwest Turkey. To investigate in detail the seismicity evolution, we apply a matched-filter technique to continuous waveforms, thus reducing the magnitude threshold for detection. Sequences of foreshocks preceding the two largest events are clearly seen, exhibiting two different behaviors: a long-term activation of the seismicity along the entire fault segment and a short-term concentration around the epicenters of the large events. We suggest a two-scale preparation phase, with aseismic slip preparing the mainshock final rupture a few days before, and a cascade mechanism leading to the nucleation of the mainshock. Thus, our study shows a combination of seismic and aseismic slip during the foreshock sequence changing the strength of the fault, bringing it closer to failure.
Localization processes in the viscous lower crust generate ductile shear zones over a broad range of scales affecting long‐term lithosphere deformation and the mechanical response of faults during the seismic cycle. Here we use centimeter‐scale numerical models in order to gain detailed insight into the processes involved in strain localization and rheological weakening in viscously deforming rocks. Our 2‐D Cartesian models are benchmarked to high‐temperature and high‐pressure torsion experiments on Carrara marble samples containing a single weak Solnhofen limestone inclusion. The models successfully reproduce bulk stress‐strain transients and final strain distributions observed in the experiments by applying a simple, first‐order softening law that mimics rheological weakening. We find that local stress concentrations forming at the inclusion tips initiate strain localization inside the host matrix. At the tip of the propagating shear zone, weakening occurs within a process zone, which expands with time from the inclusion tips toward the matrix. Rheological weakening is a precondition for shear zone localization, and the width of this shear zone is found to be controlled by the degree of softening. Introducing a second softening step at elevated strain, a high strain layer develops inside the localized shear zone, analogous to the formation of ultramylonite bands in mylonites. These results elucidate the transient evolution of stress and strain rate during inception and maturation of ductile shear zones.
The long-term temporal and spatial changes in statistical, source, and stress characteristics of one cluster of induced seismicity recorded at The Geysers geothermal field (U.S.) are analyzed in relation to the field operations, fluid migration, and constraints on the maximum likely magnitude. Two injection wells, Prati-9 and Prati-29, located in the northwestern part of the field and their associated seismicity composed of 1776 events recorded throughout a 7year period were analyzed. The seismicity catalog was relocated, and the source characteristics including focal mechanisms and static source parameters were refined using first-motion polarity, spectral fitting, and mesh spectral ratio analysis techniques. The source characteristics together with statistical parameters (b value) and cluster dynamics were used to investigate and understand the details of fluid migration scheme in the vicinity of injection wells. The observed temporal, spatial, and source characteristics were clearly attributed to fluid injection and fluid migration toward greater depths, involving increasing pore pressure in the reservoir. The seasonal changes of injection rates were found to directly impact the shape and spatial extent of the seismic cloud. A tendency of larger seismic events to occur closer to injection wells and a correlation between the spatial extent of the seismic cloud and source sizes of the largest events was observed suggesting geometrical constraints on the maximum likely magnitude and its correlation to the average injection rate and volume of fluids present in the reservoir.
We investigate the source characteristics of picoseismicity (M-w < -2) recorded during a hydraulic fracturing in situ experiment performed in the underground Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden. The experiment consisted of six stimulations driven by three different water injection schemes and was performed inside a 28-m-long, horizontal borehole located at 410-m depth. The fracturing processes were monitored with a variety of seismic networks including broadband seismometers, geophones, high-frequency accelerometers, and acoustic emission sensors thereby covering a wide frequency band between 0.01 and 100,000Hz. Here we study the high-frequency signals with dominant frequencies exceeding 1000 Hz. The combined seismic network allowed for detection and detailed analysis of 196 small-scale seismic events with moment magnitudes M-W < -3.5 (source sizes of decimeter scale) that occurred solely during the stimulations and shortly after. The double-difference relocated hypocenter catalog as well as source parameters were used to study the physical characteristics of the induced seismicity and then compared to the stimulation parameters. We observe a spatiotemporal migration of the picoseismic events away and toward the injection intervals in direct correlation with changes in the hydraulic energy (product of fluid injection pressure and injection rate). We find that the total radiated seismic energy is extremely low with respect to the product of injected fluid volume and pressure (hydraulic energy). The radiated seismic energy correlates well with the hydraulic energy rate. The obtained fault plane solutions for particularly well-characterized events signify the reactivation of preexisting rock defects under influence of increased pore fluid pressure on fault plane orientations in good correspondence with the local stress field orientation.
We show that near-real-time seismic monitoring of fluid injection allowed control of induced earthquakes during the stimulation of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well near Helsinki, Finland. A total of 18,160 m(3) of fresh water was pumped into crystalline rocks over 49 days in June to July 2018. Seismic monitoring was performed with a 24-station borehole seismometer network. Using near-real-time information on induced-earthquake rates, locations, magnitudes, and evolution of seismic and hydraulic energy, pumping was either stopped or varied-in the latter case, between well-head pressures of 60 and 90 MPa and flow rates of 400 and 800 liters/min. This procedure avoided the nucleation of a project-stopping magnitude M-W 2.0 induced earthquake, a limit set by local authorities. Our results suggest a possible physics-based approach to controlling stimulation-induced seismicity in geothermal projects.