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Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north-east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (delta O-18) and hydrogen (delta H-2), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow-through-dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow-through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side.
Provisioning a sufficient stable source of food requires sound knowledge about current and upcoming threats to agricultural production. To that end machine learning approaches were used to identify the prevailing climatic and soil hydrological drivers of spatial and temporal yield variability of four crops, comprising 40 years yield data each from 351 counties in Germany. Effects of progress in agricultural management and breeding were subtracted from the data prior the machine learning modelling by fitting smooth non-linear trends to the 95th percentiles of observed yield data. An extensive feature selection approach was followed then to identify the most relevant predictors out of a large set of candidate predictors, comprising various soil and meteorological data. Particular emphasis was placed on studying the uniqueness of identified key predictors. Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models yielded similar although not identical results, capturing between 50% and 70% of the spatial and temporal variance of silage maize, winter barley, winter rapeseed and winter wheat yield. Equally good performance could be achieved with different sets of predictors. Thus identification of the most reliable models could not be based on the outcome of the model study only but required expert's judgement. Relationships between drivers and response often exhibited optimum curves, especially for summer air temperature and precipitation. In contrast, soil moisture clearly proved less relevant compared to meteorological drivers. In view of the expected climate change both excess precipitation and the excess heat effect deserve more attention in breeding as well as in crop modelling.
The curse of the past
(2021)
One challenge for modern agricultural management schemes is the reduction of harmful effects on the envi-ronment, e.g. in terms of the emission of nutrients. Sampling the effluent of tile drains is a very efficient way to sample seepage water from larger areas directly underneath the main rooting zone. Time series of solute con-centration in tile drains can be linked to agricultural management data and thus indicate the efficacy of individual management measures. To that end, the weekly runoff and solute concentration were determined in long-term measurement campaigns at 25 outlets of artificial tile drains at 19 various arable fields in the German federal state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The study sites were distributed within a 23,000 km(2) region and were deemed representative of intense arable land use. In addition, comprehensive meteorological and man-agement data were provided. To disentangle the different effects, monitoring data were subjected to a principal component analysis. Loadings on the prevailing principal components and spatial and temporal patterns of the component scores were considered indicative of different processes. Principal component scores were then related to meteorological and management data via random forest modelling. Hydrological conditions and weather were identified as primary driving forces for the nutrient discharge behaviour of the drain plots, as well as the nitrogen balance. In contrast, direct effects of recent agricultural management could hardly be identified. Instead, we found clear evidence of the long-term and indirect effects of agriculture on nearly all solutes. We conclude that tile drain effluent quality primarily reflected the soil-internal mobilisation or de-mobilisation of nutrients and related solutes rather than allowing inferences to be drawn about recent individual agricultural management measures. On the other hand, principal component analysis revealed a variety of indirect and long-term effects of fertilisation on solutes other than nitrogen or phosphorus that are still widely overlooked in nutrient turnover studies.
Natural ponds are perceived as spatially and temporally highly variable ecosystems. This perception is in contrast to the often-applied sampling design with high spatial but low temporal replication. Based on a data set covering a period of six years and 20 permanently to periodically inundated ponds, we investigated whether this widely applied sampling design is sufficient to identify differences between single ponds or single years with regard to water quality and macrophyte community composition as measures of ecosystem integrity.
In our study, the factor "pond", which describes differences between individual ponds, explained 56 % and 63 %, respectively, of the variance in water quality and macrophyte composition. In contrast, the factor "year" that refers to changes between individual years, contributed less to understand the observed variability in water quality and macrophyte composition (10 % and 7 % respectively, of the variance explained). The low explanation of variance for "year" and the low year-to-year correlation for the single water quality parameter or macrophyte coverage values, respectively, indicated high but non-consistent temporal variability affecting individual pond patterns.
In general, the results largely supported the ability of the widely applied sampling strategy with about one sampling date per year to capture differences in water quality and macrophyte community composition between ponds. Hence, future research can be rest upon sampling designs that give more weight to the number of ponds than the number of years in dependence on the research question and the available resources. Nonetheless, pond research would miss a substantial amount of information (7 to 10 % of the variance explained), when the sampling would generally be restricted to one year. Moreover, we expect that the importance of multiple-year sampling will likely increase in periods and regions of higher hydrological variability compared to the average hydrological conditions encountered in the studied period.
Groundwater levels are monitored by environmental agencies to support the sustainable use of groundwater resources. For this purpose continuous and spatially comprehensive monitoring in high spatial and temporal resolution is desired. This leads to large datasets that have to be checked for quality and analysed to distinguish local anthropogenic influences from natural variability of the groundwater level dynamics at each well. Both technical problems with the measurements as well as local anthropogenic influences can lead to local anomalies in the hydrographs. We suggest a fast and efficient screening method for the identification of well-specific peculiarities in hydrographs of groundwater head monitoring networks. The only information required is a set of time series of groundwater heads all measured at the same instants of time. For each well of the monitoring network a reference hydrograph is calculated, describing expected "normal" behaviour at the respective well as is typical for the monitored region. The reference hydrograph is calculated by multiple linear regression of the observed hydrograph with the "stable" principal components (PCs) of a principal component analysis of all groundwater head series of the network as predictor variables. The stable PCs are those PCs which were found in a random subsampling procedure to be rather insensitive to the specific selection of the analysed observation wells, i.e. complete series, and to the specific selection of measurement dates. Hence they can be considered to be representative for the monitored region in the respective period. The residuals of the reference hydrograph describe local deviations from the normal behaviour. Peculiarities in the residuals allow the data to be checked for measurement errors and the wells with a possible anthropogenic influence to be identified. The approach was tested with 141 groundwater head time series from the state authority groundwater monitoring network in northeastern Germany covering the period from 1993 to 2013 at an approximately weekly frequency of measurement.
Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments.
We applied coarse spectral analysis to more than 2 decades of daily near-surface water temperature (WT) measurements from Muggelsee, a shallow polymictic lake in Germany, to systematically characterize patterns in WT variability from daily to yearly temporal scales. Comparison of WT with local air temperature indicates that the WT variability patterns are likely attributable to both meteorological forcing and internal lake dynamics. We identified seasonal patterns of WT variability and showed that WT variability increases with increasing Schmidt stability, decreasing Lake number and decreasing ice cover duration, and is higher near the shore than in open water. We introduced the slope of WT spectra as an indicator for the degree of lake mixing to help explain the identified temporal and spatial scales of WT variability. The explanatory power of this indicator in other lakes with different mixing regimes remains to be established.
The pleistocenic landscape in North Europe, North Asia and North America is spotted with thousands of natural ponds called kettle holes. They are biological and biogeochemical hotspots. Due to small size, small perimeter and shallow depth biological and biogeochemical processes in kettle holes are closely linked to the dynamics and the emissions of the terrestrial environment. On the other hand, their intriguing high spatial and temporal variability makes a sound understanding of the terrestrial-aquatic link very difficult. It is presumed that intensive agricultural land use during the last decades has resulted in a ubiquitous high nutrient load. However, the water quality encountered at single sites highly depends on internal biogeochemical processes and thus can differ substantially even between adjacent sites. This study aimed at elucidating the interplay between external drivers and internal processes based on a thorough analysis of a comprehensive kettle hole water quality data set. To study the role of external drivers, effects of land use in the adjacent terrestrial environment, effects of vegetation at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic systems, and that of kettle hole morphology on water quality was investigated. None of these drivers was prone to strong with-in year variability. Thus temporal variability of spatial patterns could point to the role of internal biogeochemical processes. To that end, the temporal stability of the respective spatial patterns was studied as well for various solutes. All of these analyses were performed for a set of different variables. Different results for different solutes were then used as a source of information about the respective driving processes. In the Quillow catchment in the Uckermark region, about 100 km north of Berlin, Germany, 62 kettle holes have been regularly sampled since 2013. Kettle hole catchments were determined based on a groundwater level map of the uppermost aquifer. The catchments were not clearly related to topography. Spatial patterns of kettle hole water concentration of (earth) alkaline metals and chloride were fairly stable, presumably reflecting solute concentration of the uppermost aquifer. In contrast, spatial patterns of nutrients and redox-sensitive solutes within the kettle holes were hardly correlated between different sampling campaigns. Correspondingly, effects of season, hydrogeomorphic kettle hole type, shore vegetation or land use in the respective catchments were significant but explained only a minor portion of the total variance. It is concluded that internal processes mask effects of the terrestrial environment. There is some evidence that denitrification and phosphorus release from the sediment during frequent periods of hypoxia might play a major role. The latter seems to boost primary production occasionally. These processes do not follow a clear seasonal pattern and are still not well understood.
This study examines the variations of climate variables and rice yield and quantifies the relationships among them using multiple linear regression, principal component analysis, and support vector machine (SVM) analysis in southwest Nigeria. The climate and yield data used was for a period of 36 years between 1980 and 2015. Similar to the observed decrease (P < 0.001) in rice yield, pan evaporation, solar radiation, and wind speed declined significantly. Eight principal components exhibited an eigenvalue > 1 and explained 83.1% of the total variance of predictor variables. The SVM regression function using the scores of the first principal component explained about 75% of the variance in rice yield data and linear regression about 64%. SVM regression between annual solar radiation values and yield explained 67% of the variance. Only the first component of the principal component analysis (PCA) exhibited a clear long-term trend and sometimes short-term variance similar to that of rice yield. Short-term fluctuations of the scores of the PC1 are closely coupled to those of rice yield during the 1986-1993 and the 2006-2013 periods thereby revealing the inter-annual sensitivity of rice production to climate variability. Solar radiation stands out as the climate variable of highest influence on rice yield, and the influence was especially strong during monsoon and post-monsoon periods, which correspond to the vegetative, booting, flowering, and grain filling stages in the study area. The outcome is expected to provide more in-depth regional-specific climate-rice linkage for screening of better cultivars that can positively respond to future climate fluctuations as well as providing information that may help optimized planting dates for improved radiation use efficiency in the study area.
Many hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using hydrographs alone. Because streamflow integrates water fluxes in space, many distributed hydrological models tend to have multiple feasible descriptions of hydrological processes. This equifinality usually leads to substantial prediction uncertainty. In this study, additional constraintsnamely, the spatial patterns of long-term average evapotranspiration (ET), shallow groundwater level, and land cover changewere used to investigate the reduction of equifinality and prediction uncertainty in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Wami River basin in Tanzania. The additional constraints were used in the set-up, parameter emulation and calibration of the SWAT model termed an improved hydrological model (IHM). The IHM was then compared with a classical hydrological model (CHM) that was also developed using the SWAT model but without additional constraints. In the calibration, the CHM used only the hydrograph, but the IHM used the hydrograph and the spatial pattern of long-term average ET as an additional constraint. The IHM produced a single, unique behavioural simulation, whereas the CHM produced many behavioural simulations that resulted in prediction uncertainty. The performance of the IHM with respect to the hydrograph was more consistent than that of the CHM, and the former clearly captured the mean behaviour of ET in the river basin. Therefore, we conclude that additional constraints substantially reduce equifinality and prediction uncertainty in a distributed hydrological model.