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Atmospheric water vapour content is a key variable that controls the development of deep convective storms and rainfall extremes over the central Andes. Direct measurements of water vapour are challenging; however, recent developments in microwave processing allow the use of phase delays from L-band radar to measure the water vapour content throughout the atmosphere: Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based integrated water vapour (IWV) monitoring shows promising results to measure vertically integrated water vapour at high temporal resolutions. Previous works also identified convective available potential energy (CAPE) as a key climatic variable for the formation of deep convective storms and rainfall in the central Andes. Our analysis relies on GNSS data from the Argentine Continuous Satellite Monitoring Network, Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo (RAMSAC) network from 1999 to 2013. CAPE is derived from version 2.0 of the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-interim) and rainfall from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) product. In this study, we first analyse the rainfall characteristics of two GNSS-IWV stations by comparing their complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). Second, we separately derive the relation between rainfall vs. CAPE and GNSS-IWV. Based on our distribution fitting analysis, we observe an exponential relation of rainfall to GNSS-IWV. In contrast, we report a power-law relationship between the daily mean value of rainfall and CAPE at the GNSS-IWV station locations in the eastern central Andes that is close to the theoretical relationship based on parcel theory. Third, we generate a joint regression model through a multivariable regression analysis using CAPE and GNSS-IWV to explain the contribution of both variables in the presence of each other to extreme rainfall during the austral summer season. We found that rainfall can be characterised with a higher statistical significance for higher rainfall quantiles, e.g., the 0.9 quantile based on goodness-of-fit criterion for quantile regression. We observed different contributions of CAPE and GNSS-IWV to rainfall for each station for the 0.9 quantile. Fourth, we identify the temporal relation between extreme rainfall (the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles) and both GNSS-IWV and CAPE at 6 h time steps. We observed an increase before the rainfall event and at the time of peak rainfall—both for GNSS-integrated water vapour and CAPE. We show higher values of CAPE and GNSS-IWV for higher rainfall percentiles (99th and 95th percentiles) compared to the 90th percentile at a 6-h temporal scale. Based on our correlation analyses and the dynamics of the time series, we show that both GNSS-IWV and CAPE had comparable magnitudes, and we argue to consider both climatic variables when investigating their effect on rainfall extremes.
A tale of shifting relations
(2021)
Understanding the dynamics between the East Asian summer (EASM) and winter monsoon (EAWM) is needed to predict their variability under future global warming scenarios. Here, we investigate the relationship between EASM and EAWM as well as the mechanisms driving their variability during the last 10,000 years by stacking marine and terrestrial (non-speleothem) proxy records from the East Asian realm. This provides a regional and proxy independent signal for both monsoonal systems. The respective signal was subsequently analysed using a linear regression model. We find that the phase relationship between EASM and EAWM is not time-constant and significantly depends on orbital configuration changes. In addition, changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation, Arctic sea-ice coverage, El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Sun Spot numbers contributed to millennial scale changes in the EASM and EAWM during the Holocene. We also argue that the bulk signal of monsoonal activity captured by the stacked non-speleothem proxy records supports the previously argued bias of speleothem climatic archives to moisture source changes and/or seasonality.
Quantitative geomorphic research depends on accurate topographic data often collected via remote sensing. Lidar, and photogrammetric methods like structure-from-motion, provide the highest quality data for generating digital elevation models (DEMs). Unfortunately, these data are restricted to relatively small areas, and may be expensive or time-consuming to collect. Global and near-global DEMs with 1 arcsec (∼30 m) ground sampling from spaceborne radar and optical sensors offer an alternative gridded, continuous surface at the cost of resolution and accuracy. Accuracy is typically defined with respect to external datasets, often, but not always, in the form of point or profile measurements from sources like differential Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), spaceborne lidar (e.g., ICESat), and other geodetic measurements. Vertical point or profile accuracy metrics can miss the pixel-to-pixel variability (sometimes called DEM noise) that is unrelated to true topographic signal, but rather sensor-, orbital-, and/or processing-related artifacts. This is most concerning in selecting a DEM for geomorphic analysis, as this variability can affect derivatives of elevation (e.g., slope and curvature) and impact flow routing. We use (near) global DEMs at 1 arcsec resolution (SRTM, ASTER, ALOS, TanDEM-X, and the recently released Copernicus) and develop new internal accuracy metrics to assess inter-pixel variability without reference data. Our study area is in the arid, steep Central Andes, and is nearly vegetation-free, creating ideal conditions for remote sensing of the bare-earth surface. We use a novel hillshade-filtering approach to detrend long-wavelength topographic signals and accentuate short-wavelength variability. Fourier transformations of the spatial signal to the frequency domain allows us to quantify: 1) artifacts in the un-projected 1 arcsec DEMs at wavelengths greater than the Nyquist (twice the nominal resolution, so > 2 arcsec); and 2) the relative variance of adjacent pixels in DEMs resampled to 30-m resolution (UTM projected). We translate results into their impact on hillslope and channel slope calculations, and we highlight the quality of the five DEMs. We find that the Copernicus DEM, which is based on a carefully edited commercial version of the TanDEM-X, provides the highest quality landscape representation, and should become the preferred DEM for topographic analysis in areas without sufficient coverage of higher-quality local DEMs.
The Big Naryn Complex (BNC) in the East Djetim-Too Range of the Kyrgyz Middle Tianshan block is a tectonized, at least 2 km thick sequence of predominantly felsic to intermediate volcanic rocks intruded by porphyric rhyolite sills. It overlies a basement of metamorphic rocks and is overlain by late Neoproterozoic Djetim-Too Formation sediments; these also occur as tectonic intercalations in the BNC. The up to ca. 1100 m thick Lower Member is composed of predominantly rhyolites-to-dacites and minor basalts, while the at least 900 m thick pyroclastic Upper Member is dominated by rhyolitic-to-dacitic ignimbrites. Porphyric rhyolite sills are concentrated at the top of the Lower Member. A Lower Member rhyolite and a sill sample have LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon crystallization ages of 726.1 +/- 2.2 Ma and 720.3 +/- 6.5 Ma, respectively, showing that most of the magmatism occurred within a short time span in the late Tonian-early Cryogenian. Inherited zircons in the sill sample have Neoarchean (2.63, 2.64 Ga), Paleo- (2.33-1.81 Ga), Meso- (1.55 Ga), and Neoproterozoic (ca. 815 Ma) ages, and were derived from a heterogeneous Kuilyu Complex basement. A 1751 +/- 7 Ma Ar-40/Ar-39 age for amphibole from metagabbro is the age of cooling subsequent to Paleoproterozoic metamorphism of the Kuilyu Complex. The large amount of pyroclastic rocks, and their major and trace element compositions, the presence of Neoarchean to Neoproterozoic inherited zircons and a depositional basement of metamorphic rocks point to formation of the BNC in a continental magmatic arc setting.
Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Soziale Medien sind ein wesentlicher Bestandteil des Alltags von Schüler*innen und gleichzeitig zunehmend wichtig in Wirtschaft, Politik und Wissenschaft. Am Beispiel von Twitter zeigt dieser Beitrag, dass soziale Medien im Unterricht auch für die Beantwortung geographischer Fragestellungen verwendet werden können. Hierfür eignen sich Twitter-Daten aufgrund ihrer Georeferenzierung und weiterer interessanter Inhalte besonders. Der Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die Verwendung von Twitter für sozialwissenschaftliche und humangeographische Fragestellungen und reflektiert die Nutzung von Twitter im Unterricht. Für die Unterrichtspraxis werden Beispiele zu den Themen Braunkohle, Flutereignisse und Raumwahrnehmungen sowie Anleitungen zur Auswertung, Anwendung und Reflexion von Twitter-Analysen vorgestellt.
Due to the high concentration of people and infrastructures in European cities, the possible impacts of climate change are particularly high (cities' social, economic and technical vulnerabilities). Adaptation measures to reduce the sensitivity of a city to climate risks are therefore of particular importance. Nevertheless, it is also common to develop compact and dense urban areas to reduce urban sprawl. Urban infill development and sustainable spatial climate policies are thus in apparent conflict with each other. This article examines how German cities deal with the tensions between these two policy fields. Using six case studies, a new heuristic analysis method is applied. This study identifies three key governance aspects that are essential for promoting the joint implementation: instruments, organisation and interaction. Based on our case studies, we conclude that successful implementation can only be achieved through integrative governance including all three domains.
The intensification of Northern Hemisphere glaciations at the end of the Pliocene epoch marks one of the most substantial climatic shifts of the Cenozoic. Despite global cooling, sea surface temperatures in the high latitude North Atlantic Ocean rose between 2.9–2.7 million years ago. Here we present sedimentary geochemical proxy data from the Gulf of Cadiz to reconstruct the variability of Mediterranean Outflow Water, an important heat source to the North Atlantic. We find evidence for enhanced production of Mediterranean Outflow from the mid-Pliocene to the late Pliocene which we infer could have driven a sub-surface heat channel into the high-latitude North Atlantic. We then use Earth System Models to constrain the impact of enhanced Mediterranean Outflow production on the northward heat transport in the North Atlantic. In accord with the proxy data, the numerical model results support the formation of a sub-surface channel that pumped heat from the subtropics into the high latitude North Atlantic. We further suggest that this mechanism could have delayed ice sheet growth at the end of the Pliocene.
The sediment profile from Lake Goscia(z) over dot in central Poland comprises a continuous, seasonally resolved and exceptionally well-preserved archive of the Younger Dryas (YD) climate variation. This provides a unique opportunity for detailed investigation of lake system responses during periods of rapid climate cooling (YD onset) and warming (YD termination). The new varve record of Lake Goscia(z) over dot presented here spans 1662 years from the late Allerod (AL) to the early Preboreal (PB). Microscopic varve counting provides an independent chronology with a YD duration of 1149+14/-22 years, which confirms previous results of 1140 +/- 40 years. We link stable oxygen isotopes and chironomid-based air temperature reconstructions with the response of various geochemical and varve microfacies proxies especially focusing on the onset and termination of the YD. Cooling at the YD onset lasted similar to 180 years, which is about a century longer than the terminal warming that was completed in similar to 70 years. During the AL/YD transition, environmental proxy data lagged the onset of cooling by similar to 90 years and revealed an increase of lake productivity and internal lake re-suspension as well as slightly higher detrital sediment input. In contrast, rapid warming and environmental changes during the YD/PB transition occurred simultaneously. However, initial changes such as declining diatom deposition and detrital input occurred already a few centuries before the rapid warming at the YD/PB transition. These environmental changes likely reflect a gradual increase in summer air temperatures already during the YD. Our data indicate complex and differing environmental responses to the major climate changes related to the YD, which involve different proxy sensitivities and threshold processes.
The Salt Range in Pakistan exposes Precambrian to Pleistocene strata outcropping along the Salt Range Thrust (SRT). To better understand the in-situ Cambrian and Pliocene tectonic evolution of the Pakistan Subhimalaya, we have conducted low-temperature thermochronological analysis using apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission track dating. We combine cooling ages from different samples located along the thrust front of the SRT into a thermal model that shows two major cooling events associated with rifting and regional erosion in the Late Palaeozoic and SRT activity since the Pliocene. Our results suggest that the SRT maintained a long-term average shortening rate of similar to 5-6 mm/yr and a high exhumation rate above the SRT ramp since similar to 4 Ma.