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Business process management is an established technique for business organizations to manage and support their processes. Those processes are typically represented by graphical models designed with modeling languages, such as the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN).
Since process models do not only serve the purpose of documentation but are also a basis for implementation and automation of the processes, they have to satisfy certain correctness requirements. In this regard, the notion of soundness of workflow nets was developed, that can be applied to BPMN process models in order to verify their correctness. Because the original soundness criteria are very restrictive regarding the behavior of the model, different variants of the soundness notion have been developed for situations in which certain violations are not even harmful.
All of those notions do only consider the control-flow structure of a process model, however. This poses a problem, taking into account the fact that with the recent release and the ongoing development of the Decision Model and Notation (DMN) standard, an increasing number of process models are complemented by respective decision models. DMN is a dedicated modeling language for decision logic and separates the concerns of process and decision logic into two different models, process and decision models respectively.
Hence, this thesis is concerned with the development of decisionaware soundness notions, i.e., notions of soundness that build upon the original soundness ideas for process models, but additionally take into account complementary decision models. Similar to the various notions of workflow net soundness, this thesis investigates different notions of decision soundness that can be applied depending on the desired degree of restrictiveness. Since decision tables are a standardized means of DMN to represent decision logic, this thesis also puts special focus on decision tables, discussing how they can be translated into an unambiguous format and how their possible output values can be efficiently determined.
Moreover, a prototypical implementation is described that supports checking a basic version of decision soundness. The decision soundness notions were also empirically evaluated on models from participants of an online course on process and decision modeling as well as from a process management project of a large insurance company. The evaluation demonstrates that violations of decision soundness indeed occur and can be detected with our approach.
The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes.
Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988–2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research.
This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram.
To conclude, these three stages–from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard–provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs.
Thermoresponsive Zellkultursubstrate für zeitlich-räumlich gesteuertes Auswachsen neuronaler Zellen
(2019)
Ein wichtiges Ziel der Neurowissenschaften ist das Verständnis der komplexen und zugleich faszinierenden, hochgeordneten Vernetzung der Neurone im Gehirn, welche neuronalen Prozessen, wie zum Beispiel dem Wahrnehmen oder Lernen wie auch Neuropathologien zu Grunde liegt. Für verbesserte neuronale Zellkulturmodelle zur detaillierten Untersuchung dieser Prozesse ist daher die Rekonstruktion von geordneten neuronalen Verbindungen dringend erforderlich. Mit Oberflächenstrukturen aus zellattraktiven und zellabweisenden Beschichtungen können neuronale Zellen und ihre Neuriten in vitro strukturiert werden. Zur Kontrolle der neuronalen Verbindungsrichtung muss das Auswachsen der Axone zu benachbarten Zellen dynamisch gesteuert werden, zum Beispiel über eine veränderliche Zugänglichkeit der Oberfläche.
In dieser Arbeit wurde untersucht, ob mit thermoresponsiven Polymeren (TRP) beschichtete Zellkultursubstrate für eine dynamische Kontrolle des Auswachsens neuronaler Zellen geeignet sind. TRP können über die Temperatur von einem zellabweisenden in einen zellattraktiven Zustand geschaltet werden, womit die Zugänglichkeit der Oberfläche für Zellen dynamisch gesteuert werden kann. Die TRP-Beschichtung wurde mikrostrukturiert, um einzelne oder wenige neuronale Zellen zunächst auf der Oberfläche anzuordnen und das Auswachsen der Zellen und Neuriten über definierte TRP-Bereiche in Abhängigkeit der Temperatur zeitlich und räumlich zu kontrollieren. Das Protokoll wurde mit der neuronalen Zelllinie SH-SY5Y etabliert und auf humane induzierte Neurone übertragen. Die Anordnung der Zellen konnte bei Kultivierung im zellabweisenden Zustand des TRPs für bis zu 7 Tage aufrecht erhalten werden. Durch Schalten des TRPs in den zellattraktiven Zustand konnte das Auswachsen der Neuriten und Zellen zeitlich und räumlich induziert werden. Immunozytochemische Färbungen und Patch-Clamp-Ableitungen der Neurone demonstrierten die einfache Anwendbarkeit und Zellkompatibilität der TRP-Substrate.
Eine präzisere räumliche Kontrolle des Auswachsens der Zellen sollte durch lokales Schalten der TRP-Beschichtung erreicht werden. Dafür wurden Mikroheizchips mit Mikroelektroden zur lokalen Jouleschen Erwärmung der Substratoberfläche entwickelt. Zur Evaluierung der generierten Temperaturprofile wurde eine Temperaturmessmethode entwickelt und die erhobenen Messwerte mit numerisch simulierten Werten abgeglichen. Die Temperaturmessmethode basiert auf einfach zu applizierenden Sol-Gel-Schichten, die den temperatursensitiven Fluoreszenzfarbstoff Rhodamin B enthalten. Sie ermöglicht oberflächennahe Temperaturmessungen in trockener und wässriger Umgebung mit hoher Orts- und Temperaturauflösung. Numerische Simulationen der Temperaturprofile korrelierten gut mit den experimentellen Daten. Auf dieser Basis konnten Geometrie und Material der Mikroelektroden hinsichtlich einer lokal stark begrenzten Temperierung optimiert werden. Ferner wurden für die Kultvierung der Zellen auf den Mikroheizchips eine Zellkulturkammer und Kontaktboard für die elektrische Kontaktierung der Mikroelektroden geschaffen.
Die vorgestellten Ergebnisse demonstrieren erstmalig das enorme Potential thermoresponsiver Zellkultursubstrate für die zeitlich und räumlich gesteuerte Formation geordneter neuronaler Verbindungen in vitro. Zukünftig könnte dies detaillierte Studien zur neuronalen Informationsverarbeitung oder zu Neuropathologien an relevanten, humanen Zellmodellen ermöglichen.
Data assimilation has been an active area of research in recent years, owing to its wide utility. At the core of data assimilation are filtering, prediction, and smoothing procedures. Filtering entails incorporation of measurements' information into the model to gain more insight into a given state governed by a noisy state space model. Most natural laws are governed by time-continuous nonlinear models. For the most part, the knowledge available about a model is incomplete; and hence uncertainties are approximated by means of probabilities. Time-continuous filtering, therefore, holds promise for wider usefulness, for it offers a means of combining noisy measurements with imperfect model to provide more insight on a given state.
The solution to time-continuous nonlinear Gaussian filtering problem is provided for by the Kushner-Stratonovich equation. Unfortunately, the Kushner-Stratonovich equation lacks a closed-form solution. Moreover, the numerical approximations based on Taylor expansion above third order are fraught with computational complications. For this reason, numerical methods based on Monte Carlo methods have been resorted to. Chief among these methods are sequential Monte-Carlo methods (or particle filters), for they allow for online assimilation of data. Particle filters are not without challenges: they suffer from particle degeneracy, sample impoverishment, and computational costs arising from resampling.
The goal of this thesis is to:— i) Review the derivation of Kushner-Stratonovich equation from first principles and its extant numerical approximation methods, ii) Study the feedback particle filters as a way of avoiding resampling in particle filters, iii) Study joint state and parameter estimation in time-continuous settings, iv) Apply the notions studied to linear hyperbolic stochastic differential equations.
The interconnection between Itô integrals and stochastic partial differential equations and those of Stratonovich is introduced in anticipation of feedback particle filters. With these ideas and motivated by the variants of ensemble Kalman-Bucy filters founded on the structure of the innovation process, a feedback particle filter with randomly perturbed innovation is proposed. Moreover, feedback particle filters based on coupling of prediction and analysis measures are proposed. They register a better performance than the bootstrap particle filter at lower ensemble sizes.
We study joint state and parameter estimation, both by means of extended state spaces and by use of dual filters. Feedback particle filters seem to perform well in both cases. Finally, we apply joint state and parameter estimation in the advection and wave equation, whose velocity is spatially varying. Two methods are employed: Metropolis Hastings with filter likelihood and a dual filter comprising of Kalman-Bucy filter and ensemble Kalman-Bucy filter. The former performs better than the latter.
The Italian Army’s participation in Hitler’s war against the Soviet Union has remained unrecognized and understudied. Bastian Matteo Scianna offers a wide-ranging, in-depth corrective. Mining Italian, German and Russian sources, he examines the history of the Italian campaign in the East between 1941 and 1943, as well as how the campaign was remembered and memorialized in the domestic and international arena during the Cold War. Linking operational military history with memory studies, this book revises our understanding of the Italian Army in the Second World War.
Rowdytum, ein Begriff, der im russischen Zarenreich für die Ungezogenheit niederer Schichten stand, bezeichnet heute vor allem die Gewaltexzesse von Fußballfans. In der Sowjetunion und im übrigen Ostblock war Rowdytum viel mehr: ein Sinnbild abweichenden Verhaltens, eine unscharf definierte Straftat, ein willkürliches Stigma, das jeden treffen konnte.
Matej Kotalík erforscht das Rowdytum grenzübergreifend und verfolgt dessen Geobiografie von der Sowjetunion in die CS(S)R und in die DDR, von 1956 bis 1989. Seine Bilanz ist ambivalent. Ungeachtet sowjetischer Impulse war der entsprechende Straftatbestand durch eigene Rechtstraditionen beider Länder geprägt. Als Alltagserscheinung markierte Rowdytum die Grenzen des gesellschaftlich Akzeptablen, die in den 1960er Jahren zugleich neu verhandelt wurden. Die Polizeigewalt gegen Außenseiter wandelte sich in einer individualisierten Gesellschaft zunehmend zum Streitpunkt zwischen dem Staat und seinen Bürgern.