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Institute
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- Institut für Geowissenschaften (33)
- Institut für Physik und Astronomie (24)
- Institut für Ernährungswissenschaft (10)
- Department Linguistik (9)
- Institut für Chemie (8)
- Institut für Mathematik (5)
- Institut für Anglistik und Amerikanistik (4)
- Institut für Informatik und Computational Science (4)
- Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie (4)
Semi-empirical sea-level models (SEMs) exploit physically motivated empirical relationships between global sea level and certain drivers, in the following global mean temperature. This model class evolved as a supplement to process-based models (Rahmstorf (2007)) which were unable to fully represent all relevant processes. They thus failed to capture past sea-level change (Rahmstorf et al. (2012)) and were thought likely to underestimate future sea-level rise. Semi-empirical models were found to be a fast and useful tool for exploring the uncertainties in future sea-level rise, consistently giving significantly higher projections than process-based models.
In the following different aspects of semi-empirical sea-level modelling have been studied. Models were first validated using various data sets of global sea level and temperature. SEMs were then used on the glacier contribution to sea level, and to infer past global temperature from sea-level data via inverse modelling. Periods studied encompass the instrumental period, covered by tide gauges (starting 1700 CE (Common Era) in Amsterdam) and satellites (first launched in 1992 CE), the era from 1000 BCE (before CE) to present, and the full length of the Holocene (using proxy data). Accordingly different data, model formulations and implementations have been used. It could be shown in Bittermann et al. (2013) that SEMs correctly predict 20th century sea-level when calibrated with data until 1900 CE. SEMs also turned out to give better predictions than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report (AR4, IPCC (2007)) models, for the period from 1961–2003 CE.
With the first multi-proxy reconstruction of global sea-level as input, estimate of the human-induced component of modern sea-level change and projections of future sea-level rise were calculated (Kopp et al. (2016)). It turned out with 90% confidence that more than 40 % of the observed 20th century sea-level rise is indeed anthropogenic. With the new semi-empirical and IPCC (2013) 5th assessment report (AR5) projections the gap between SEM and process-based model projections closes, giving higher credibility to both. Combining all scenarios, from strong mitigation to business as usual, a global sea-level rise of 28–131 cm relative to 2000 CE, is projected with 90% confidence. The decision for a low carbon pathway could halve the expected global sea-level rise by 2100 CE.
Present day temperature and thus sea level are driven by the globally acting greenhouse-gas forcing. Unlike that, the Milankovich forcing, acting on Holocene timescales, results mainly in a northern-hemisphere temperature change. Therefore a semi-empirical model can be driven with northernhemisphere temperatures, which makes it possible to model the main subcomponent of sea-level change over this period. It showed that an additional positive constant rate of the order of the estimated Antarctic sea-level contribution is then required to explain the sea-level evolution over the Holocene. Thus the global sea level, following the climatic optimum, can be interpreted as the sum of a temperature induced sea-level drop and a positive long-term contribution, likely an ongoing response to deglaciation coming from Antarctica.
In this thesis we investigate the evaporation behaviour of sessile droplets of aqueous saline solutions on planar inert and metallic surfaces and characterise the corrosion phenomenon for iron surfaces. First we study the evaporation behaviour of sessile salty droplets on inert surfaces for a wide range of salt concentrations, relative humidities, droplet sizes and contact angles. Our study reveals the range of validity of the well-accepted diffusion-controlled evaporation model and highlights the impact of salt concentration (surface tension) gradients driven Marangoni flows on the evaporation behaviour and the subsequent salty deposit patterns. Furthermore we study the spatial-temporal evolution of sessile droplets from saline solutions on metallic surfaces. In contrast to the simple, generally accepted Evans droplet model, we show that the corrosion spreads ahead of the macroscopic contact line with a peripheral film. The three-phase contact line is destabilized by surface tension gradients induced by ionic composition changes during the course of the corrosion process and migration of cations towards the droplet perimeter. Finally we investigate the corrosion behaviour under drying salty sessile droplets on metallic surfaces. The corrosion process, in particular the location of anodic and cathodic activities over the footprint droplet area is correlated to the spatial distribution of the salt inside the drying droplet.
The sea level rise induced intensification of coastal floods is a serious threat to many regions in proximity to the ocean. Although severe flood events are rare they can entail enormous damage costs, especially when built-up areas are inundated. Fortunately, the mean sea level advances slowly and there is enough time for society to adapt to the changing environment. Most commonly, this is achieved by the construction or reinforcement of flood defence measures such as dykes or sea walls but also land use and disaster management are widely discussed options. Overall, albeit the projection of sea level rise impacts and the elaboration of adequate response strategies is amongst the most prominent topics in climate impact research, global damage estimates are vague and mostly rely on the same assessment models. The thesis at hand contributes to this issue by presenting a distinctive approach which facilitates large scale assessments as well as the comparability of results across regions. Moreover, we aim to improve the general understanding of the interplay between mean sea level rise, adaptation, and coastal flood damage.
Our undertaking is based on two basic building blocks. Firstly, we make use of macroscopic flood-damage functions, i.e. damage functions that provide the total monetary damage within a delineated region (e.g. a city) caused by a flood of certain magnitude. After introducing a systematic methodology for the automatised derivation of such functions, we apply it to a total of 140 European cities and obtain a large set of damage curves utilisable for individual as well as comparative damage assessments. By scrutinising the resulting curves, we are further able to characterise the slope of the damage functions by means of a functional model. The proposed function has in general a sigmoidal shape but exhibits a power law increase for the relevant range of flood levels and we detect an average exponent of 3.4 for the considered cities. This finding represents an essential input for subsequent elaborations on the general interrelations of involved quantities.
The second basic element of this work is extreme value theory which is employed to characterise the occurrence of flood events and in conjunction with a damage function provides the probability distribution of the annual damage in the area under study. The resulting approach is highly flexible as it assumes non-stationarity in all relevant parameters and can be easily applied to arbitrary regions, sea level, and adaptation scenarios. For instance, we find a doubling of expected flood damage in the city of Copenhagen for a rise in mean sea levels of only 11 cm. By following more general considerations, we succeed in deducing surprisingly simple functional expressions to describe the damage behaviour in a given region for varying mean sea levels, changing storm intensities, and supposed protection levels. We are thus able to project future flood damage by means of a reduced set of parameters, namely the aforementioned damage function exponent and the extreme value parameters. Similar examinations are carried out to quantify the aleatory uncertainty involved in these projections. In this regard, a decrease of (relative) uncertainty with rising mean sea levels is detected. Beyond that, we demonstrate how potential adaptation measures can be assessed in terms of a Cost-Benefit Analysis. This is exemplified by the Danish case study of Kalundborg, where amortisation times for a planned investment are estimated for several sea level scenarios and discount rates.