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The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) has become a popular metric for evaluating improvement in disease prediction models through the past years. The concept is relatively straightforward but usage and interpretation has been different across studies. While no thresholds exist for evaluating the degree of improvement, many studies have relied solely on the significance of the NRI estimate. However, recent studies recommend that statistical testing with the NRI should be avoided. We propose using confidence ellipses around the estimated values of event and non-event NRIs which might provide the best measure of variability around the point estimates. Our developments are illustrated using practical examples from EPIC-Potsdam study.
Land-use concepts provide decision support for the most efficient usage options according to sustainable development and multifunctionality requirements. However, developments in landscape-related, agricultural production schemes are primarily driven by economic benefits. Therefore, most agricultural land-use concepts tackle particular problems or interests and lack a systemic perspective. As a result, we discuss a conceptual model for future site-specific agricultural land-use with an inbuilt requirement for adequate experimental sites to enable monitoring systems for a new generation of ecosystem models and for new approaches to address science-stakeholder interactions.
X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) is a powerful tool for probing the local chemical environment of atoms near surfaces. When applied to soft matter, such as polymers, XPS spectra are frequently shifted and broadened due to thermal atom motion and by interchain interactions. We present a combined quantum mechanical QM/molecular dynamics (MD) simulation of X-ray photoelectron spectra of polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) using oligomer models in order to account for and quantify these effects on the XPS (C1s) signal. In our study, molecular dynamics at finite temperature were performed with a classical forcefield and by ab initio MD (AIMD) using the Car-Parrinello method. Snapshots along, the trajectories represent possible conformers and/or neighbouring environments, with different C1s ionization potentials for individual C atoms leading to broadened XPS peaks. The latter are determined by Delta-Kohn Sham calculations. We also examine the experimental practice of gauging XPS (C1s) signals of alkylic C-atoms in C-containing polymers to the C1s signal of polyethylene.
We find that (i) the experimental XPS (C1s) spectra of PVA (position and width) can be roughly represented by single-strand models, (ii) interchain interactions lead to red-shifts of the XPS peaks by about 0.6 eV, and (iii) AIMD simulations match the findings from classical MD semi-quantitatively. Further, (iv) the gauging procedure of XPS (C1s) signals to the values of PE, introduces errors of about 0.5 eV. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The main objective of this work is to investigate the evolution of massive stars, and the interplay between them and the ionized gas for a sample of local metal-poor Wolf-Rayet galaxies.
Optical integral field spectrocopy was used in combination with multi-wavelength radio data.
Combining optical and radio data, we locate Wolf-Rayet stars and supernova remnants across the Wolf-Rayet galaxies to study the spatial correlation between them. This study will shed light on the massive star formation and its feedback, and will help us to better understand
distant star-forming galaxies.
Timing and magnitude of surface uplift are key to understanding the impact of crustal deformation and topographic growth on atmospheric circulation, environmental conditions, and surface processes. Uplift of the East African Plateau is linked to mantle processes, but paleoaltimetry data are too scarce to constrain plateau evolution and subsequent vertical motions associated with rifting. Here, we assess the paleotopographic implications of a beaked whale fossil (Ziphiidae) from the Turkana region of Kenya found 740 km inland from the present-day coastline of the Indian Ocean at an elevation of 620 m. The specimen is similar to 17 My old and represents the oldest derived beaked whale known, consistent with molecular estimates of the emergence of modern straptoothed whales (Mesoplodon). The whale traveled from the Indian Ocean inland along an eastward-directed drainage system controlled by the Cretaceous Anza Graben and was stranded slightly above sea level. Surface uplift from near sea level coincides with paleoclimatic change from a humid environment to highly variable and much drier conditions, which altered biotic communities and drove evolution in east Africa, including that of primates.
Flow phenomena in the unsaturated zone are highly variable in time and space. Thus, it is challenging to measure and monitor such processes under field conditions. Here, we present a new setup and interpretation approach for combining a dye tracer experiment with a 4D ground-penetrating radar (GPR) survey. Therefore, we designed a rainfall experiment during which we measured three surface-based 3D GPR surveys using a pair of 500 MHz antennas. Such a survey setup requires accurate acquisition and processing techniquesto extract time-lapse information supporting the interpretation of selected cross-sections photographed after excavating the site. Our results reveal patterns of traveltime changes in the measured GPR data, which are associated with soil moisture changes. As distinct horizons are present at our site, such changes can be quantified and transferred into changes in total soil moisture content. Our soil moisture estimates are similar to the amount of infiltrated water, which confirms our experimental approach and makes us confident for further developing this strategy, especially, with respect to improving the temporal and spatial resolution. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We present 3D numerical simulations of the NGC6888 nebula considering the proper motion and the evolution of the star, from the red supergiant (RSG) to the Wolf-Rayet (WR) phase. Our simulations reproduce the limb-brightened morphology observed in [OIII] and X-ray emission maps. The synthetic maps computed by the numerical simulations show filamentary and clumpy structures produced by instabilities triggered in the interaction between the WR wind and the RSG shell.
We present results of full 3D hydrodynamical and radiative transfer simulations of the colliding stellar winds in the massive binary system η Carinae. We accomplish this by applying the SimpleX algorithm for 3D radiative transfer on an unstructured Voronoi-Delaunay grid to recent 3D smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the binary colliding winds. We use SimpleX to obtain detailed ionization fractions of hydrogen and helium, in 3D, at the resolution of the original SPH simulations. We investigate several computational domain sizes and Luminous Blue Variable primary star mass-loss rates. We furthermore present new methods of visualizing and interacting with output from complex 3D numerical simulations, including 3D interactive graphics and 3D printing. While we initially focus on η Car, the methods employed can be applied to numerous other colliding wind (WR 140, WR 137, WR 19) and dusty `pinwheel' (WR 104, WR 98a) binary systems. Coupled with 3D hydrodynamical simulations, SimpleX simulations have the potential to help determine the regions where various observed time-variable emission and absorption lines form in these unique objects.
We present spectral classifications from optical spectroscopy of 263 massive stars in the north-eastern region of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The observed two-degree field includes the massive 30 Doradus star-forming region, the environs of SN1987A, and a number of star-forming complexes to the south of 30 Dor. These are the first classifications for the majority (203) of the stars and include eleven double-lined spectroscopic binaries. The sample also includes the first examples of early OC-type spectra (AA Omega 30 Dor 248 and 280), distinguished by the weakness of their nitrogen spectra and by C IV lambda 4658 emission. We propose that these stars have relatively unprocessed CNO abundances compared to morphologically normal O-type stars, indicative of an earlier evolutionary phase. From analysis of observations obtained on two consecutive nights, we present radial-velocity estimates for 233 stars, finding one apparent single-lined binary and nine (>3 sigma) outliers compared to the systemic velocity; the latter objects could be runaway stars or large-amplitude binary systems and further spectroscopy is required to investigate their nature.