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Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here, we present a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM, ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e., upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.
Tree stands in the boreal treeline ecotone are, in addition to climate change, impacted by disturbances such as fire, water-related disturbances and logging. We aim to understand how these disturbances affect growth, age structure, and spatial patterns of larch stands in the north-eastern Siberian treeline ecotone (lower Kolyma River region), an insufficiently researched region. Stand structure of Larix cajanderi Mayr was studied at seven sites impacted by disturbances. Maximum tree age ranged from 44 to 300 years. Young to medium-aged stands had, independent of disturbance type, the highest stand densities with over 4000 larch trees per ha. These sites also had the highest growth rates for tree height and stem diameter. Overall lowest stand densities were found in a polygonal field at the northern end of the study area, with larches growing in distinct " tree islands". At all sites, saplings are significantly clustered. Differences in fire severity led to contrasting stand structures with respect to tree, recruit, and overall stand densities. While a low severity fire resulted in low-density stands with high proportions of small and young larches, high severity fires resulted in high-density stands with high proportions of big trees. At waterdisturbed sites, stand structure varied between waterlogged and drained sites and latitude. These mixed effects of climate and disturbance make it difficult to predict future stand characteristics and the treeline position.
Reliable information on past and present vegetation is important to project future changes, especially for rapidly transitioning areas such as the boreal treeline. To study past vegetation, pollen analysis is common, while current vegetation is usually assessed by field surveys. Application of detailed sedimentary DNA (sedDNA) records has the potential to enhance our understanding of vegetation changes, but studies systematically investigating the power of this proxy are rare to date. This study compares sedDNA metabarcoding and pollen records from surface sediments of 31 lakes along a north-south gradient of increasing forest cover in northern Siberia (Taymyr peninsula) with data from field surveys in the surroundings of the lakes. sedDNA metabarcoding recorded 114 plant taxa, about half of them to species level, while pollen analyses identified 43 taxa, both exceeding the 31 taxa found by vegetation field surveys. Increasing Larix percentages from north to south were consistently recorded by all three methods and principal component analyses based on percentage data of vegetation surveys and DNA sequences separated tundra from forested sites. Comparisons of the ordinations using procrustes and protest analyses show a significant fit among all compared pairs of records. Despite similarities of sedDNA and pollen records, certain idiosyncrasies, such as high percentages of Alnus and Betula in all pollen and high percentages of Salix in all sedDNA spectra, are observable. Our results from the tundra to single-tree tundra transition zone show that sedDNA analyses perform better than pollen in recording site-specific richness (i.e., presence/absence of taxa in the vicinity of the lake) and perform as well as pollen in tracing vegetation composition.
Arctic permafrost landscapes are among the most vulnerable and dynamic landscapes globally, but due to their extent and remoteness most of the landscape changes remain unnoticed. In order to detect disturbances in these areas we developed an automated processing chain for the calculation and analysis of robust trends of key land surface indicators based on the full record of available Landsat TM, ETM +, and OLI data. The methodology was applied to the similar to 29,000 km(2) Lena Delta in Northeast Siberia, where robust trend parameters (slope, confidence intervals of the slope, and intercept) were calculated for Tasseled Cap Greenness, Wetness and Brightness, NDVI, and NDWI, and NDMI based on 204 Landsat scenes for the observation period between 1999 and 2014. The resulting datasets revealed regional greening trends within the Lena Delta with several localized hot-spots of change, particularly in the vicinity of the main river channels. With a 30-m spatial resolution various permafrost-thaw related processes and disturbances, such as thermokarst lake expansion and drainage, fluvial erosion, and coastal changes were detected within the Lena Delta region, many of which have not been noticed or described before. Such hotspots of permafrost change exhibit significantly different trend parameters compared to non-disturbed areas. The processed dataset, which is made freely available through the data archive PANGAEA, will be a useful resource for further process specific analysis by researchers and land managers. With the high level of automation and the use of the freely available Landsat archive data, the workflow is scalable and transferrable to other regions, which should enable the comparison of land surface changes in different permafrost affected regions and help to understand and quantify permafrost landscape dynamics. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
We report the first high-resolution (20-50 years) mid- to late Holocene pollen records from Lake Teletskoye, the largest lake in the Altai Mountains, in south-eastern West Siberia. Generally, the mid- to late Holocene (the last 4250 years) vegetation of the north-eastern Altai, as recorded in two studied sediment cores, is characterised by Siberian pine-spruce-fir forests that are similar to those of the present day. A relatively cool and dry interval with July temperatures lower than those of today occurred between 3.9 and 3.6 ka BP. The widespread distribution of open, steppe-like communities with Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Cyperaceae reflects maximum deforestation during this interval. After ca. 3.5 ka BP, the coniferous mountain taiga spread significantly, with maximum woody coverage and taiga biome scores between ca. 2.7 and 1.6 ka BP. This coincides well with the highest July temperature (approximately 1 degrees C higher than today) intervals. A short period of cooling about 13-1.4 ka BP could have been triggered by the increased volcanic activity recorded across the Northern Hemisphere. A new period of cooling started around 1100-1150 CE, with the minimum July temperatures occurring between 1450 and 1800 CE. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost inundated since the last glacial maximum is degrading, potentially releasing trapped or stabilized greenhouse gases, but few observations of the depth of ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) below the seafloor exist for most of the arctic continental shelf. We use spectral ratios of the ambient vibration seismic wavefield, together with estimated shear wave velocity from the dispersion curves of surface waves, for estimating the thickness of the sediment overlying the IBP. Peaks in spectral ratios modeled for three-layered 1-D systems correspond with varying thickness of the unfrozen sediment. Seismic receivers were deployed on the seabed around Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, Siberia. We derive depths of the IBP between 3.7 and 20.7m15%, increasing with distance from the shoreline. Correspondence between expected permafrost distribution, modeled response, and observational data suggests that the method is promising for the determination of the thickness of unfrozen sediment.
Siberian arctic vegetation and lake water communities, known for their temperature dependence, are expected to be particularly impacted by recent climate change and high warming rates. However, decadal information on the nature and strength of recent vegetation change and its time lag to climate signals are rare. In this study, we present a Pb-210/Cs-137 dated pollen and Pediastrum species record from a unnamed lake in the south of the Taymyr peninsula covering the period from AD 1706 to 2011. Thirty-nine palynomorphs and 10 morphotypes of Pediastrum species were studied to assess changes in vegetation and lake conditions as probable responses to climate change. We compared the pollen record with Pediastrum species, which we consider to be important proxies of climate changes. Three pollen assemblage zones characterised by Betula nana, Alnus viridis and Larix gmelinii (1706-1808); herbs such as Cyperaceae, Artemisia or Senecio (1808-1879), and higher abundance of Larix pollen (1955-2011) are visible. Also, three Pediastrum assemblage zones show changes of aquatic conditions: higher abundances of Pediastrum boryanum var. brevicorne (1706-1802); medium abundances of P. kawraiskyi and P. integrum (1802-1840 and 1920-1980), indicating cooler conditions while less eutrophic conditions are indicated by P. boryanum, and a mainly balanced composition with only small changes of cold- and warm-adapted Pediastrum species (1965-2011). In general, compositional Pediastrum species turnover is slightly higher than that indicated by pollen data (0.54 vs 0.34 SD), but both are only minor for this treeline location. In conclusion, the relevance of differentiation of Pediastrum species is promising and can give further insights into the relationship between lakes and their surrounding vegetation transferred onto climatic conditions.