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Public opinion polls have become vital and increasingly visible parts of election campaigns. Previous research has frequently demonstrated that polls can influence both citizens' voting intentions and political parties' campaign strategies. However, they are also fraught with uncertainty. Margins of error can reflect (parts of) this uncertainty. This paper investigates how citizens' voting intentions change due to whether polling estimates are presented with or without margins of error.
Using a vignette experiment (N=3224), we examine this question based on a real-world example in which different election polls were shown to nationally representative respondents ahead of the 2021 federal election in Germany. We manipulated the display of the margins of error, the interpretation of polls and the closeness of the electoral race.
The results indicate that margins of error can influence citizens' voting intentions. This effect is dependent on the actual closeness of the race and additional interpretative guidance provided to voters. More concretely, the results consistently show that margins of error increase citizens' inclination to vote for one of the two largest contesting parties if the polling gap between these parties is small, and an interpretation underlines this closeness.
The findings of this study are important for three reasons. First, they help to determine whether margins of error can assist citizens in making more informed (strategic) vote decisions. They shed light on whether depicting opinion-poll uncertainty affects the key features of representative democracy, such as democratic accountability. Second, the results stress the responsibility of the media. The way polls are interpreted and contextualized influences the effect of margins of error on voting behaviour. Third, the findings of this paper underscore the significance of including methodological details when communicating scientific research findings to the broader public.
Effect of magnesium salts with chaotropic anions on the swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films
(2023)
Poly(N-isopropylmethacrylamide) (PNIPMAM) is a stimuli responsive polymer, which in thin film geometry exhibits a volume-phase transition upon temperature increase in water vapor. The swelling behavior of PNIPMAM thin films containing magnesium salts in water vapor is investigated in view of their potential application as nanodevices. Both the extent and the kinetics of the swelling ratio as well as the water content are probed with in situ time-of-flight neutron reflectometry. Additionally, in situ Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy provides information about the local solvation of the specific functional groups, while two-dimensional FTIR correlation analysis further elucidates the temporal sequence of solvation events. The addition of Mg(ClO4)2 or Mg(NO3)2 enhances the sensitivity of the polymer and therefore the responsiveness of switches and sensors based on PNIPMAM thin films. It is found that Mg(NO3)2 leads to a higher relative water uptake and therefore achieves the highest thickness gain in the swollen state.
Thermal electrons have gyroradii many orders of magnitude smaller than the finite width of a shock, thus need to be pre-accelerated before they can cross it and be accelerated by diffusive shock acceleration. One region where pre-acceleration may occur is the inner foreshock, which upstream electrons must pass through before any potential downstream crossing. In this paper, we perform a large-scale particle-in-cell simulation that generates a single shock with parameters motivated from supernova remnants. Within the foreshock, reflected electrons excite the oblique whistler instability and produce electromagnetic whistler waves, which comove with the upstream flow and as nonlinear structures eventually reach radii of up to 5 ion-gyroradii. We show that the inner electromagnetic configuration of the whistlers evolves into complex nonlinear structures bound by a strong magnetic field around four times the upstream value. Although these nonlinear structures do not in general interact with cospatial upstream electrons, they resonate with electrons that have been reflected at the shock. We show that they can scatter, or even trap, reflected electrons, confining around 0.8% of the total upstream electron population to the region close to the shock where they can undergo substantial pre-acceleration. This acceleration process is similar to, yet approximately three times more efficient than, stochastic shock drift acceleration.
Analyzing social wrongs
(2023)
(Moralisch) guter Sex
(2023)
In einem kürzlich erschienenen Artikel argumentiert Almut v. Wedelstaedt überzeugend, warum Zustimmung zwar „die Bedingung für die Legitimation von Sex“ ist (2020, 127), dass die moralische Güte von Sex aber nur dann einzuschätzen ist, wenn wir darauf achten, ob die Beteiligten der Handlung sich auf Augenhöhe begegnen. Die Idee ist: Es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch gut sind, und es gibt legitime sexuelle Handlungen, die moralisch besser sind. Hier möchte ich die Idee des besseren Sexes genauer ausloten. Während v. Wedelstaedt von moralisch gelungenem Sex spricht und somit auf der Ebene der moralischen Bewertung von Sex bleibt, möchte ich die Frage danach stellen, was Sex qualitativ gut macht. Tatsächlich wird in der Zustimmungsdebatte meist davon ausgegangen, dass diese zwei Fragen wenig gemeinsam haben; ob eine sexuelle Handlung legitim ist, hat zunächst nichts damit zu tun, ob diese auch gut ist. Ich werde drei Argumente liefern, warum wir legitimen Sex und qualitativ guten Sex zusammen betrachten sollten – und es wird sich zeigen, dass die gegenwärtige philosophische und rechtstheoretische Debatte Zustimmung verkürzt diskutiert und daher alleingenommen wenig hilfreich ist, stattdessen benötigt die Zustimmungsdebatte auch eine Untersuchung von qualitativ gutem Sex.
Eskalation in Tweets
(2023)
We tested whether a brief self-affirmation writing intervention protected against identity-threats (i.e., stereotyping and discrimination) for adolescents' school-related adjustment. The longitudinal study followed 639 adolescents in Germany (65% of immigrant descent, 50% female, M-age = 12.35 years, SDage = .69) from 7(th) grade (pre-intervention at T1, five to six months post-intervention at T2) to the end of 8(th) grade (one-year follow-up at T3). We tested for direct and moderated (by heritage group, discrimination, classroom cultural diversity climate) effects using regression and latent change models. The self-affirmation intervention did not promote grades or math competence. However, in the short-term and for adolescents of immigrant descent, the intervention prevented a downward trajectory in mastery reactions to academic challenges for those experiencing greater discrimination. Further, it protected against a decline in behavioral school engagement for those in positive classroom cultural diversity climates. In the long-term and for all adolescents, the intervention lessened an upward trajectory in disruptive behavior. Overall, the self-affirmation intervention benefited some aspects of school-related adjustment for adolescents of immigrant and non-immigrant descent. The intervention context is important, with classroom cultural diversity climate acting as a psychological affordance enhancing affirmation effects. Our study supports the ongoing call for theorizing and empirically testing student and context heterogeneity to better understand for whom and under which conditions this intervention may work.
Local laws on urban policy, i.e., ordinances directly affect our daily life in various ways (health, business etc.), yet in practice, for many citizens they remain impervious and complex. This article focuses on an approach to make urban policy more accessible and comprehensible to the general public and to government officials, while also addressing pertinent social media postings. Due to the intricacies of the natural language, ranging from complex legalese in ordinances to informal lingo in tweets, it is practical to harness human judgment here. To this end, we mine ordinances and tweets via reasoning based on commonsense knowledge so as to better account for pragmatics and semantics in the text. Ours is pioneering work in ordinance mining, and thus there is no prior labeled training data available for learning. This gap is filled by commonsense knowledge, a prudent choice in situations involving a lack of adequate training data. The ordinance mining can be beneficial to the public in fathoming policies and to officials in assessing policy effectiveness based on public reactions. This work contributes to smart governance, leveraging transparency in governing processes via public involvement. We focus significantly on ordinances contributing to smart cities, hence an important goal is to assess how well an urban region heads towards a smart city as per its policies mapping with smart city characteristics, and the corresponding public satisfaction.
FicucariconeD (1) and its 4 '-demethyl congener 2 are isoflavones isolated from fruits of Ficus carica that share a 5,7-dimethoxy-6-prenyl-substituted A-ring. Both naturalproducts were, for the first time, obtained by chemical synthesisin six steps, starting from 2,4,6-trihydroxyacetophenone. Key stepsare a microwave-promoted tandem sequence of Claisen- and Cope-rearrangementsto install the 6-prenyl substituent and a Suzuki-Miyaura crosscoupling for installing the B-ring. By using various boronic acids,non-natural analogues become conveniently available. All compoundswere tested for cytotoxicity against drug-sensitive and drug-resistanthuman leukemia cell lines, but were found to be inactive. The compoundswere also tested for antimicrobial activities against a panel of eightGram-negative and two Gram-positive bacterial strains. Addition ofthe efflux pump inhibitor phenylalanine-arginine-beta-naphthylamide(PA beta N) significantly improved the antibiotic activity in mostcases, with MIC values as low as 2.5 mu M and activity improvementfactors as high as 128-fold.