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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (221) (remove)
The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.
Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study.
The reservoir sediments are important sinks for organic carbon (OC), the OC burial being dependent on two opposite processes, deposition and mineralization. Hence factors such as severe water level fluctuations are expected to influence the rate of OC accumulation as they may affect both deposition and mineralization. The Barasona Reservoir has been historically threatened by siltation, whilst the use of water for irrigation involves a drastic decrease of the water level. In this context, we have studied the physical and chemical characteristics (grain size, major and minor elemental compositions, organic and inorganic carbon, and nitrogen) of the recent sediments of the Barasona Reservoir and the relationships among them in order to: a) elucidate the main processes governing OC accumulation, b) evaluate the rate of OC mineralization and c) approach the effect of drought on the sediment characteristics in this system. Our results indicated that Barasona sediments were dominated by fine silts (>60%) and clays (>20%), the mean particle size decreasing from tail to dam. Desiccation increased particle sorting and size distribution became bimodal, but no effect on average size was observed. Attending to the composition, Barasona sediments were very homogeneous with low concentrations of nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (<12 g kg(-1) dw and <0.6 g kg(-1) dw, respectively) and high concentration of OC (approximate to 36 kg(-1) dw). TN was negatively related to dry weight Sediment mixing due to drastic changes in water level may have favoured the observed homogeneity of Barasona sediments affecting carbon, major ions and grain size. The high amount of OC deposited in Barasona sediment suggested that the adsorption of OC onto fine particles was more important than in boreal lakes. The rate of oxygen consumption by wet sediment ranged from 2.26 to 3.15 mg O-2 m(-2) day(-1), values close to those compiled for Mediterranean running waters. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Regulation alters the characteristics of riversty transforming parts of them into lakes, affecting their hydrology and also the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics and dynamics. Reservoirs have proven to be very effective retaining particulate materials, thereby avoiding the downstream transport of suspended sediment and the chemical substances associated with it (e.g. Carbon, C or Nitrogen, N). The study of fluvial transport of C and N is of great interest since river load represents a major link to the global C and N cycles. Moreover, reservoirs are the most important sinks for organic carbon among inland waters and have a potential significance as nitrogen sinks. In this respect, this paper investigates the effects of a Pyrenean reservoir on the runoff, suspended sediment, C and N derived from the highly active Esera and Isabena rivets. Key findings indicate that the reservoir causes a considerable impact on the Esera-Isabena river fluxes, reducing them dramatically as almost all the inputs are retained within the reservoir. Despite the very dry study year (2011-2012), it can be calculated that almost 300,000 t of suspended sediment were deposited into the Barasona Reservoir, from which more than 16,000 were C (i.e. 2200 t as organic C) and 222 t were N. These values may not be seen as remarkable in a wider global context but, assuming that around 30 hm(3) of sediment are currently stored in the reservoir, figures would increase up to ca. 2.6 x 10(6) t of C (i.e. 360,000 t of organic C) and 35,000 t of N. Nevertheless, these values are indicative and should be treated with caution as there is incomplete understanding of all the processes which affect C and N. Further investigation to establish a more complete picture of C and N yields and budgets by monitoring the different processes involved is essential. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Mediterranean climate is characterized by highly irregular rainfall patterns with marked differences between wet and dry seasons which lead to highly variable hydrological fluvial regimes. As a result, and in order to ensure water availability and reduce its temporal variability, a high number of large dams were built during the 20th century (more than 3500 located in Mediterranean rivers). Dams modify the flow regime but also interrupt the continuity of sediment transfer along the river network, thereby changing its functioning as an ecosystem. Within this context, the present paper aims to assess the suspended sediment loads and dynamics of two climatically contrasting Mediterranean regulated rivers (i.e. the Esera and Siurana) during a 2-yr period. Key findings indicate that floods were responsible for 92% of the total suspended sediment load in the River Siurana, while this percentage falls to 70% for the Esera, indicating the importance of baseflows on sediment transport in this river. This fact is related to the high sediment availability, with the Esera acting as a non-supply-limited catchment due to the high productivity of the sources (i.e. badlands). In contrast, the Siurana can be considered a supply-limited system due to its low geomorphic activity and reduced sediment availability, with suspended sediment concentration remaining low even for high magnitude flood events. Reservoirs in both rivers reduce sediment load up to 90%, although total runoff is only reduced in the case of the River Esera. A remarkable fact is the change of the hydrological character of the River Lem downstream for the dam, shifting from a humid mountainous river regime to a quasi-invariable pattern, whereas the Siurana experiences the opposite effect, changing from a flashy Mediterranean river to a more constant flow regime below the dam. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The uppermost Cretaceous (upper Campanian-Maastrichtian) marine deposits of the central south Pyrenees host a rich larger benthic foraminiferal fauna and several rudist-rich levels. These marine deposits are directly overlain by the continental facies of the Aren and Tremp Formations, which are famous for their fossil dinosaur remains. Larger benthic foraminiferal distribution documents an important faunal turnover in all the carbonate platform environments within the photic zone, from open marine to littoral areas. Biostratigraphy indicates that this turnover occurred close to the Campanian-Maastrichtian boundary. This is also confirmed by strontium isotope stratigraphy which indicates an earliest Maastrichtian age for the appearance of the larger benthic foraminiferal assemblage constituted by Lepidorbitoides socialis, Clypeorbis mammillata, Wannierina cataluniensis, Orbitoides gruenbachensis, Siderolites aff. calcitrapoides, Fascispira colomi, Omphalocyclus macroporus and Laffiteina mengaudi. In particular, a numerical age of 71 Ma is obtained for the Hippurites radiosus level, just a few meters below the first continental deposits of the Aren sensu stricto Formation. The youngest marine sediments of the central south Pyrenees are early Maastrichtian in age. This is also an important constraint for the age of the end-Cretaceous dinosaur fossil localities of the Tremp basin. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sarmentofascis zamparelliae n. sp., a new demosponge from the lower Campanian of southern Italy
(2016)
A new coralline sponge, exhibiting typical "stromatoporoid" bodyplan, is described as Sarmentofascis zamparelliae n. sp. from the lower Campanian of the southern Apennines, Italy. It is differentiated from Sarmentofascis cretacea (Turnsek) (Hauterivian of Montenegro) and Sarmentofascis chabrieri Termier, Termier and Vachard (Santonian of France) above all by its slender arborescent skeleton, exhibiting longitudinally distributed astrorhizae-like canals. S. zamparelliae n. sp. is the youngest representative of the genus and is reported from a period exhibiting a distinct decline of "stromatoporoid" sponges. With its clinogonal microstructure and occurrence in inner platform stromatoporoid-foraminiferan floatstones it can be considered a Late Cretaceous environmental analog to the Late Jurassic Cladocoropsis. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The water cycle of sites with shallow groundwater tables is characterized by complex interactions of hydrological and ecological processes. The water balance components, which are subject to diurnal fluctuations, are best measured with groundwater lysimeters. However, the lower boundary condition of such lysimeters affects most of the hydrological variables, particularly when considering short time scales, and has to be defined in such a way as to facilitate realistic simulations. In this paper, different means of controlling the lower boundary condition of groundwater lysimeters were compared with respect to their ability to simulate the behavior of the water balance components properly. Measurements of rain-free periods from a lysimeter station installed in the Spreewald wetland in north-east Germany were evaluated. The most common groundwater lysimeter type is controlled using a Mariotte bottle and sets the groundwater level in the soil monolith to a constant level, which here caused an alteration of the inflow to the lysimeter, with respect to both its value and diurnal behavior. Still, daily evapotranspiration values were realistic and this simple and robust approach may be used for time intervals not shorter than one day. High-resolution measurements can be gained from lysimeters that automatically adjust the groundwater level by a system of pumps and valves on an hourly basis. Still, reliable results were only obtained when the conditions in the lysimeter and the surrounding field, where the target groundwater level was measured, were in accordance. Otherwise (e.g., when the groundwater level differed) an unrealistic inflow behavior evolved. Reasonable results, even for slightly diverging conditions, were gained with a new approach that defined the lower boundary conditions by controlling the inflows and outflows of the lysimeter. This approach further enabled the groundwater level itself to be the study subject, thereby enlarging the field of possible applications of groundwater lysimeters. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.