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Modelers can improve a model by addressing the causes for the model errors (data errors and structural errors). This leads to implementing model enhancements (MEs), for example, meteorological data based on more monitoring stations, improved calibration data, and/or modifications in process formulations. However, deciding on which MEs to implement remains a matter of expert knowledge. After implementing multiple MEs, any improvement in model performance is not easily attributed, especially when considering different objectives or aspects of this improvement (e.g., better dynamics vs. reduced bias). We present an approach for comparing the effect of multiple MEs based on real observations and considering multiple objectives (MMEMO). A stepwise selection approach and structured plots help to address the multidimensionality of the problem. Tailored analyses allow a differentiated view on the effect of MEs and their interactions. MMEMO is applied to a case study employing the mesoscale hydro-sedimentological model WASA-SED for the Mediterranean-mountainous Isabena catchment, northeast Spain. The investigated seven MEs show diverse effects: some MEs (e.g., rainfall data) cause improvements for most objectives, while other MEs (e.g., land use data) only affect a few objectives or even decrease model performance. Interaction of MEs was observed for roughly half of the MEs, confirming the need to address them in the analysis. Calibration and increasing the temporal resolution showed by far stronger impact than any of the other MEs. The proposed framework can be adopted in other studies to analyze the effect of MEs and, thus, facilitate the identification and implementation of the most promising MEs for comparable cases.
Sustainable land use in Mountain Regions under global change synthesis across scales and disciplines
(2013)
Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.
The impressive number of stream gauges in Chile, combined with a suite of past and recent large earthquakes, makes Chile a unique natural laboratory to study several streams that recorded responses to multiple seismic events. We document changes in discharge in eight streams in Chile following two or more large earthquakes. In all cases, discharge increases. Changes in discharge occur for peak ground velocities greater than about 7-11cm/s. Above that threshold, the magnitude of both the increase in discharge and the total excess water do not increase with increasing peak ground velocities. While these observations are consistent with previous work in California, they conflict with lab experiments that show that the magnitude of permeability changes increases with increasing amplitude of ground motion. Instead, our study suggests that streamflow responses are binary. Plain Language Summary Earthquakes deform and shake the surface and the ground below. These changes may affect groundwater flows by increasing the permeability along newly formed cracks and/or clearing clogged pores. As a result, groundwater flow may substantially increase after earthquakes and remain elevated for several months. Here we document streamflow anomalies following multiple high magnitude earthquakes in multiple streams in one of the most earthquake prone regions worldwide, Chile. We take advantage of the dense monitoring network in Chile that recorded streamflow since the 1940s. We show that once a critical ground motion is exceeded, streamflow responses to earthquakes can be expected.
Groningen is the largest onshore gas field under production in Europe. The pressure depletion of the gas field started in 1963. In 1991, the first induced micro-earthquakes have been located at reservoir level with increasing rates in the following decades. Most of these events are of magnitude less than 2.0 and cannot be felt. However, maximum observed magnitudes continuously increased over the years until the largest, significant event with ML=3.6 was recorded in 2014, which finally led to the decision to reduce the production. This causal sequence displays the crucial role of understanding and modeling the relation between production and induced seismicity for economic planing and hazard assessment. Here we test whether the induced seismicity related to gas exploration can be modeled by the statistical response of fault networks with rate-and-state-dependent frictional behavior. We use the long and complete local seismic catalog and additionally detailed information on production-induced changes at the reservoir level to test different seismicity models. Both the changes of the fluid pressure and of the reservoir compaction are tested as input to approximate the Coulomb stress changes. We find that the rate-and-state model with a constant tectonic background seismicity rate can reproduce the observed long delay of the seismicity onset. In contrast, so-called Coulomb failure models with instantaneous earthquake nucleation need to assume that all faults are initially far from a critical state of stress to explain the delay. Our rate-and-state model based on the fluid pore pressure fits the spatiotemporal pattern of the seismicity best, where the fit further improves by taking the fault density and orientation into account. Despite its simplicity with only three free parameters, the rate-and-state model can reproduce the main statistical features of the observed activity.
In humans and in foveated animals visual acuity is highly concentrated at the center of gaze, so that choosing where to look next is an important example of online, rapid decision-making. Computational neuroscientists have developed biologically-inspired models of visual attention, termed saliency maps, which successfully predict where people fixate on average. Using point process theory for spatial statistics, we show that scanpaths contain, however, important statistical structure, such as spatial clustering on top of distributions of gaze positions. Here, we develop a dynamical model of saccadic selection that accurately predicts the distribution of gaze positions as well as spatial clustering along individual scanpaths. Our model relies on activation dynamics via spatially-limited (foveated) access to saliency information, and, second, a leaky memory process controlling the re-inspection of target regions. This theoretical framework models a form of context-dependent decision-making, linking neural dynamics of attention to behavioral gaze data.
Modeling and observations have shown that energy diffusion by chorus waves is an important source of acceleration of electrons to relativistic energies. By performing long-term simulations using the three-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt code, in this study, we test how the latitudinal dependence of chorus waves can affect the dynamics of the radiation belt electrons. Results show that the variability of chorus waves at high latitudes is critical for modeling of megaelectron volt (MeV) electrons. We show that, depending on the latitudinal distribution of chorus waves under different geomagnetic conditions, they cannot only produce a net acceleration but also a net loss of MeV electrons. Decrease in high-latitude chorus waves can tip the balance between acceleration and loss toward acceleration, or alternatively, the increase in high-latitude waves can result in a net loss of MeV electrons. Variations in high-latitude chorus may account for some of the variability of MeV electrons.
Floodplains have been degraded in Central Europe for centuries, resulting in less dynamic and less diverse ecosystems than in the past. They provide essential ecosystem services like nutrient retention to improve overall water quality and thus fulfill naturally what EU legislation demands, but this service is impaired by reduced connectivity patterns. Along the second-longest river in Europe, the Danube, restoration measures have been carried out and are planned for the near future in the Austrian Danube Floodplain National Park in accordance with navigation purposes. We investigated nutrient retention capacity in seven currently differently connected side arms and the effects of proposed restoration measures using two complementary modeling approaches. We modeled nutrient retention capacity in two scenarios considering different hydrological conditions, as well as the consequences of planned restoration measures for side arm connectivity. With existing monitoring data on hydrology, nitrate, and total phosphorus concentrations for three side arms, we applied a statistical model and compared these results to a semi-empirical retention model. The latter was originally developed for larger scales, based on transferable causalities of retention processes and set up for this floodplain with publicly available data. Both model outcomes are in a comparable range for NO3-N (77-198 kg ha(-1)yr(-1)) and TP (1.4-5.7 kg ha(-1)yr(-1)) retention and agree in calculating higher retention in floodplains, where reconnection allows more frequent inundation events. However, the differences in the model results are significant for specific aspects especially during high flows, where the semi-empirical model complements the statistical model. On the other hand, the statistical model complements the semi-empirical model when taking into account nutrient retention at times of no connection between the remaining water bodies left in the floodplain. Overall, both models show clearly that nutrient retention in the Danube floodplains can be enhanced by restoring lateral hydrological reconnection and, for all planned measures, a positive effect on the overall water quality of the Danube River is expected. Still, a frequently hydrologically connected stretch of national park is insufficient to improve the water quality of the whole Upper Danube, and more functional floodplains are required.
Whenever eye movements are measured, a central part of the analysis has to do with where subjects fixate and why they fixated where they fixated. To a first approximation, a set of fixations can be viewed as a set of points in space; this implies that fixations are spatial data and that the analysis of fixation locations can be beneficially thought of as a spatial statistics problem. We argue that thinking of fixation locations as arising from point processes is a very fruitful framework for eye-movement data, helping turn qualitative questions into quantitative ones. We provide a tutorial introduction to some of the main ideas of the field of spatial statistics, focusing especially on spatial Poisson processes. We show how point processes help relate image properties to fixation locations. In particular we show how point processes naturally express the idea that image features' predictability for fixations may vary from one image to another. We review other methods of analysis used in the literature, show how they relate to point process theory, and argue that thinking in terms of point processes substantially extends the range of analyses that can be performed and clarify their interpretation.
A suitable vehicle for integration of bioactive plant constituents is proposed. It involves modification of proteins using phenolics and applying these for protection of labile constituents. It dissects the noncovalent and covalent interactions of beta-lactoglobulin with coffee-specific phenolics. Alkaline and polyphenol oxidase modulated covalent reactions were compared. Tryptic digestion combined with MALDI-TOF-MS provided tentative allocation of the modification type and site in the protein, and an in silico modeling of modified beta-lactoglobulin is proposed. The modification delivers proteins with enhanced antioxidative properties. Changed structural properties and differences in solubility, surface hydrophobicity, and emulsification were observed. The polyphenol oxidase modulated reaction provides a modified beta-lactoglobulin with a high antioxidative power, is thermally more stable, requires less energy to unfold, and, when emulsified with lutein esters, exhibits their higher stability against UV light. Thus, adaptation of this modification provides an innovative approach for functionalizing proteins and their uses in the food industry.
Riverine ecosystems provide various ecosystem services. One of these services is the biological control of eutrophication by grazing macroinvertebrates.
However, riverine ecosystems are subject to numerous stressors that affect community structure, functions, and stability properties. To manage rivers in response to these stressors, a better understanding of the ecological functions underlying services is needed.
This requires consideration of local and regional processes, which requires a metacommunity approach that links local food webs through drift and dispersal. This takes into account long-distance interactions that can compensate for local effects of stressors.
Our modular model MASTIFF (Multiple Aquatic STressors In Flowing Food webs) is stage-structured, spatially explicit, and includes coupled food webs consisting of benthic resource-consumer interactions between biofilm and three competing macroinvertebrate functional types. River segments are unidirectionally connected through organismal drift and bidirectionally connected through dispersal. Climate and land use stressors along the river can be accounted for. Biocontrol of biofilm eutrophication is used as an exemplary functional indicator.
We present the model and the underlying considerations, and show in an exemplary application that explicit consideration of drift and dispersal is essential for understanding the spatiotemporal biocontrol of eutrophication.
The combination of drift and dispersal reduced eutrophication events. While dispersal events were linked to specific periods in the species life cycles and therefore had limited potential to control, drift was ubiquitous and thus responded more readily to changing habitat conditions.
This indicates that drift is an important factor for coping with stress situations.
Finally, we outline and discuss the potential and possibilities of MASTIFF as a tool for mechanistic, cross-scale analyses of multiple stressors to advance knowledge of riverine ecosystem functioning.