Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
ISSN (online) 1866-8372
URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-series-403
Herausgegeben von der Universität Potsdam
URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-series-403
Herausgegeben von der Universität Potsdam
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1023
This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing.
819
A flexible approach to assess fluorescence decay functions in complex energy transfer systems
(2015)
Background: Time-correlated Forster resonance energy transfer (FRET) probes molecular distances with greater accuracy than intensity-based calculation of FRET efficiency and provides a powerful tool to study biomolecular structure and dynamics. Moreover, time-correlated photon count measurements bear additional information on the variety of donor surroundings allowing more detailed differentiation between distinct structural geometries which are typically inaccessible to general fitting solutions.
Results: Here we develop a new approach based on Monte Carlo simulations of time-correlated FRET events to estimate the time-correlated single photon counts (TCSPC) histograms in complex systems. This simulation solution assesses the full statistics of time-correlated photon counts and distance distributions of fluorescently labeled biomolecules. The simulations are consistent with the theoretical predictions of the dye behavior in FRET systems with defined dye distances and measurements of randomly distributed dye solutions. We validate the simulation results using a highly heterogeneous aggregation system and explore the conditions to use this tool in complex systems.
Conclusion: This approach is powerful in distinguishing distance distributions in a wide variety of experimental setups, thus providing a versatile tool to accurately distinguish between different structural assemblies in highly complex systems.
660
Past climatic change can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives by a number of proxies. However, few methods exist to directly estimate hydrological changes and even fewer result in quantitative data, impeding our understanding of the timing, magnitude and mechanisms of hydrological changes.
Here we present a novel approach based on delta H-2 values of sedimentary lipid biomarkers in combination with plant physiological modeling to extract quantitative information on past changes in relative humidity. Our initial application to an annually laminated lacustrine sediment sequence from western Europe deposited during the Younger Dryas cold period revealed relative humidity changes of up to 15% over sub-centennial timescales, leading to major ecosystem changes, in agreement with palynological data from the region. We show that by combining organic geochemical methods and mechanistic plant physiological models on well characterized lacustrine archives it is possible to extract quantitative ecohydrological parameters from sedimentary lipid biomarker delta H-2 data.
850
Background
High blood glucose and diabetes are amongst the conditions causing the greatest losses in years of healthy life worldwide. Therefore, numerous studies aim to identify reliable risk markers for development of impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes. However, the molecular basis of impaired glucose metabolism is so far insufficiently understood. The development of so called 'omics' approaches in the recent years promises to identify molecular markers and to further understand the molecular basis of impaired glucose metabolism and type 2 diabetes. Although univariate statistical approaches are often applied, we demonstrate here that the application of multivariate statistical approaches is highly recommended to fully capture the complexity of data gained using high-throughput methods.
Methods
We took blood plasma samples from 172 subjects who participated in the prospective Metabolic Syndrome Berlin Potsdam follow-up study (MESY-BEPO Follow-up). We analysed these samples using Gas Chromatography coupled with Mass Spectrometry (GC-MS), and measured 286 metabolites. Furthermore, fasting glucose levels were measured using standard methods at baseline, and after an average of six years. We did correlation analysis and built linear regression models as well as Random Forest regression models to identify metabolites that predict the development of fasting glucose in our cohort.
Results
We found a metabolic pattern consisting of nine metabolites that predicted fasting glucose development with an accuracy of 0.47 in tenfold cross-validation using Random Forest regression. We also showed that adding established risk markers did not improve the model accuracy. However, external validation is eventually desirable. Although not all metabolites belonging to the final pattern are identified yet, the pattern directs attention to amino acid metabolism, energy metabolism and redox homeostasis.
Conclusions
We demonstrate that metabolites identified using a high-throughput method (GC-MS) perform well in predicting the development of fasting plasma glucose over several years. Notably, not single, but a complex pattern of metabolites propels the prediction and therefore reflects the complexity of the underlying molecular mechanisms. This result could only be captured by application of multivariate statistical approaches. Therefore, we highly recommend the usage of statistical methods that seize the complexity of the information given by high-throughput methods.
315
In Near Edge X-Ray Absorption Fine Structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy X-Ray photons are used to excite tightly bound core electrons to low-lying unoccupied orbitals of the system. This technique offers insight into the electronic structure of the system as well as useful structural information. In this work, we apply NEXAFS to two kinds of imidazolium based ionic liquids ([CnC1im]+[NTf2]- and [C4C1im]+[I]-). A combination of measurements and quantum chemical calculations of C K and N K NEXAFS resonances is presented. The simulations, based on the transition potential density functional theory method (TP-DFT), reproduce all characteristic features observed by the experiment. Furthermore, a detailed assignment of resonance features to excitation centers (carbon or nitrogen atoms) leads to a consistent interpretation of the spectra.
paper 050
Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in predicting rainfall erosivity from daily rainfall amount. We recommend the Richardson model for testing in the Amazon Basin, and its use with the coefficient from La Cuenca in western Amazonia.
1161
Exendin-4 is a pharmaceutical peptide used in the control of insulin secretion. Structural information on exendin-4 and related peptides especially on the level of quaternary structure is scarce. We present the first published association equilibria of exendin-4 directly measured by static and dynamic light scattering. We show that exendin-4 oligomerization is pH dependent and that these oligomers are of low compactness. We relate our experimental results to a structural hypothesis to describe molecular details of exendin-4 oligomers. Discussion of the validity of this hypothesis is based on NMR, circular dichroism and fluorescence spectroscopy, and light scattering data on exendin-4 and a set of exendin-4 derived peptides. The essential forces driving oligomerization of exendin-4 are helix–helix interactions and interactions of a conserved hydrophobic moiety. Our structural hypothesis suggests that key interactions of exendin-4 monomers in the experimentally supported trimer take place between a defined helical segment and a hydrophobic triangle constituted by the Phe22 residues of the three monomeric subunits. Our data rationalize that Val19 might function as an anchor in the N-terminus of the interacting helix-region and that Trp25 is partially shielded in the oligomer by C-terminal amino acids of the same monomer. Our structural hypothesis suggests that the Trp25 residues do not interact with each other, but with C-terminal Pro residues of their own monomers.
641
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
640
Flooding is assessed as the most important natural hazard in Europe, causing thousands of deaths, affecting millions of people and accounting for large economic losses in the past decade. Little is known about the damage processes associated with extreme rainfall in cities, due to a lack of accurate, comparable and consistent damage data. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of extreme rainfall on residential buildings and how affected households coped with these impacts in terms of precautionary and emergency actions. Analyses are based on a unique dataset of damage characteristics and a wide range of potential damage explaining variables at the household level, collected through computer-aided telephone interviews (CATI) and an online survey. Exploratory data analyses based on a total of 859 completed questionnaires in the cities of Munster (Germany) and Amsterdam (the Netherlands) revealed that the uptake of emergency measures is related to characteristics of the hazardous event. In case of high water levels, more efforts are made to reduce damage, while emergency response that aims to prevent damage is less likely to be effective. The difference in magnitude of the events in Munster and Amsterdam, in terms of rainfall intensity and water depth, is probably also the most important cause for the differences between the cities in terms of the suffered financial losses. Factors that significantly contributed to damage in at least one of the case studies are water contamination, the presence of a basement in the building and people's awareness of the upcoming event. Moreover, this study confirms conclusions by previous studies that people's experience with damaging events positively correlates with precautionary behaviour. For improving future damage data acquisition, we recommend the inclusion of cell phones in a CATI survey to avoid biased sampling towards certain age groups.
458
In this paper two groups supporting different views on the mechanism of light induced polymer deformation argue about the respective underlying theoretical conceptions, in order to bring this interesting debate to the attention of the scientific community. The group of Prof. Nicolae Hurduc supports the model claiming that the cyclic isomerization of azobenzenes may cause an athermal transition of the glassy azobenzene containing polymer into a fluid state, the so-called photo-fluidization concept. This concept is quite convenient for an intuitive understanding of the deformation process as an anisotropic flow of the polymer material. The group of Prof. Svetlana Santer supports the re-orientational model where the mass-transport of the polymer material accomplished during polymer deformation is stated to be generated by the light-induced re-orientation of the azobenzene side chains and as a consequence of the polymer backbone that in turn results in local mechanical stress, which is enough to irreversibly deform an azobenzene containing material even in the glassy state. For the debate we chose three polymers differing in the glass transition temperature, 32 °C, 87 °C and 95 °C, representing extreme cases of flexible and rigid materials. Polymer film deformation occurring during irradiation with different interference patterns is recorded using a homemade set-up combining an optical part for the generation of interference patterns and an atomic force microscope for acquiring the kinetics of film deformation. We also demonstrated the unique behaviour of azobenzene containing polymeric films to switch the topography in situ and reversibly by changing the irradiation conditions. We discuss the results of reversible deformation of three polymers induced by irradiation with intensity (IIP) and polarization (PIP) interference patterns, and the light of homogeneous intensity in terms of two approaches: the re-orientational and the photo-fluidization concepts. Both agree in that the formation of opto-mechanically induced stresses is a necessary prerequisite for the process of deformation. Using this argument, the deformation process can be characterized either as a flow or mass transport.