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Water stored in the unsaturated soil as soil moisture is a key component of the hydrological cycle influencing numerous hydrological processes including hydrometeorological extremes. Soil moisture influences flood generation processes and during droughts when precipitation is absent, it provides plant with transpirable water, thereby sustaining plant growth and survival in agriculture and natural ecosystems.
Soil moisture stored in deeper soil layers e.g. below 100 cm is of particular importance for providing plant transpirable water during dry periods. Not being directly connected to the atmosphere and located outside soil layers with the highest root densities, water in these layers is less susceptible to be rapidly evaporated and transpired. Instead, it provides longer-term soil water storage increasing the drought tolerance of plants and ecosystems.
Given the importance of soil moisture in the context of hydro-meteorological extremes in a warming climate, its monitoring is part of official national adaption strategies to a changing climate. Yet, soil moisture is highly variable in time and space which challenges its monitoring on spatio-temporal scales relevant for flood and drought risk modelling and forecasting.
Introduced over a decade ago, Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) is a noninvasive geophysical method that allows for the estimation of soil moisture at relevant spatio-temporal scales of several hectares at a high, subdaily temporal resolution. CRNS relies on the detection of secondary neutrons above the soil surface which are produced from high-energy cosmic-ray particles in the atmosphere and the ground. Neutrons in a specific epithermal energy range are sensitive to the amount of hydrogen present in the surroundings of the CRNS neutron detector. Due to same mass as the hydrogen nucleus, neutrons lose kinetic energy upon collision and are subsequently absorbed when reaching low, thermal energies. A higher amount of hydrogen therefore leads to fewer neutrons being detected per unit time. Assuming that the largest amount of hydrogen is stored in most terrestrial ecosystems as soil moisture, changes of soil moisture can be estimated through an inverse relationship with observed neutron intensities.
Although important scientific advancements have been made to improve the methodological framework of CRNS, several open challenges remain, of which some are addressed in the scope of this thesis. These include the influence of atmospheric variables such as air pressure and absolute air humidity, as well as, the impact of variations in incoming primary cosmic-ray intensity on observed epithermal and thermal neutron signals and their correction. Recently introduced advanced neutron-to-soil moisture transfer functions are expected to improve CRNS-derived soil moisture estimates, but potential improvements need to be investigated at study sites with differing environmental conditions. Sites with strongly heterogeneous, patchy soil moisture distributions challenge existing transfer functions and further research is required to assess the impact of, and correction of derived soil moisture estimates under heterogeneous site conditions. Despite its capability of measuring representative averages of soil moisture at the field scale, CRNS lacks an integration depth below the first few decimetres of the soil. Given the importance of soil moisture also in deeper soil layers, increasing the observational window of CRNS through modelling approaches or in situ measurements is of high importance for hydrological monitoring applications.
By addressing these challenges, this thesis aids to closing knowledge gaps and finding answers to some of the open questions in CRNS research. Influences of different environmental variables are quantified, correction approaches are being tested and developed. Neutron-to-soil moisture transfer functions are evaluated and approaches to reduce effects of heterogeneous soil moisture distributions are presented. Lastly, soil moisture estimates from larger soil depths are derived from CRNS through modified, simple modelling approaches and in situ estimates by using CRNS as a downhole technique. Thereby, this thesis does not only illustrate the potential of new, yet undiscovered applications of CRNS in future but also opens a new field of CRNS research. Consequently, this thesis advances the methodological framework of CRNS for above-ground and downhole applications. Although the necessity of further research in order to fully exploit the potential of CRNS needs to be emphasised, this thesis contributes to current hydrological research and not least to advancing hydrological monitoring approaches being of utmost importance in context of intensifying hydro-meteorological extremes in a changing climate.
Ecosystems play a pivotal role in addressing climate change but are also highly susceptible to drastic environmental changes. Investigating their historical dynamics can enhance our understanding of how they might respond to unprecedented future environmental shifts. With Arctic lakes currently under substantial pressure from climate change, lessons from the past can guide our understanding of potential disruptions to these lakes. However, individual lake systems are multifaceted and complex. Traditional isolated lake studies often fail to provide a global perspective because localized nuances—like individual lake parameters, catchment areas, and lake histories—can overshadow broader conclusions. In light of these complexities, a more nuanced approach is essential to analyze lake systems in a global context.
A key to addressing this challenge lies in the data-driven analysis of sedimentological records from various northern lake systems. This dissertation emphasizes lake systems in the northern Eurasian region, particularly in Russia (n=59). For this doctoral thesis, we collected sedimentological data from various sources, which required a standardized framework for further analysis. Therefore, we designed a conceptual model for integrating and standardizing heterogeneous multi-proxy data into a relational database management system (PostgreSQL). Creating a database from the collected data enabled comparative numerical analyses between spatially separated lakes as well as between different proxies.
When analyzing numerous lakes, establishing a common frame of reference was crucial. We achieved this by converting proxy values from depth dependency to age dependency. This required consistent age calculations across all lakes and proxies using one age-depth modeling software. Recognizing the broader implications and potential pitfalls of this, we developed the LANDO approach ("Linked Age and Depth Modelling"). LANDO is an innovative integration of multiple age-depth modeling software into a singular, cohesive platform (Jupyter Notebook). Beyond its ability to aggregate data from five renowned age-depth modeling software, LANDO uniquely empowers users to filter out implausible model outcomes using robust geoscientific data. Our method is not only novel but also significantly enhances the accuracy and reliability of lake analyses.
Considering the preceding steps, this doctoral thesis further examines the relationship between carbon in sediments and temperature over the last 21,000 years. Initially, we hypothesized a positive correlation between carbon accumulation in lakes and modelled paleotemperature. Our homogenized dataset from heterogeneous lakes confirmed this association, even if the highest temperatures throughout our observation period do not correlate with the highest carbon values. We assume that rapid warming events contribute more to high accumulation, while sustained warming leads to carbon outgassing. Considering the current high concentration of carbon in the atmosphere and rising temperatures, ongoing climate change could cause northern lake systems to contribute to a further increase in atmospheric carbon (positive feedback loop). While our findings underscore the reliability of both our standardized data and the LANDO method, expanding our dataset might offer even greater assurance in our conclusions.
Today, near-surface investigations are frequently conducted using non-destructive or minimally invasive methods of applied geophysics, particularly in the fields of civil engineering, archaeology, geology, and hydrology. One field that plays an increasingly central role in research and engineering is the examination of sedimentary environments, for example, for characterizing near-surface groundwater systems. A commonly employed method in this context is ground-penetrating radar (GPR). In this technique, short electromagnetic pulses are emitted into the subsurface by an antenna, which are then reflected, refracted, or scattered at contrasts in electromagnetic properties (such as the water table). A receiving antenna records these signals in terms of their amplitudes and travel times. Analysis of the recorded signals allows for inferences about the subsurface, such as the depth of the groundwater table or the composition and characteristics of near-surface sediment layers. Due to the high resolution of the GPR method and continuous technological advancements, GPR data acquisition is increasingly performed in three-dimensional (3D) fashion today.
Despite the considerable temporal and technical efforts involved in data acquisition and processing, the resulting 3D data sets (providing high-resolution images of the subsurface) are typically interpreted manually. This is generally an extremely time-consuming analysis step. Therefore, representative 2D sections highlighting distinctive reflection structures are often selected from the 3D data set. Regions showing similar structures are then grouped into so-called radar facies. The results obtained from 2D sections are considered representative of the entire investigated area. Interpretations conducted in this manner are often incomplete and highly dependent on the expertise of the interpreters, making them generally non-reproducible.
A promising alternative or complement to manual interpretation is the use of GPR attributes. Instead of using the recorded data directly, derived quantities characterizing distinctive reflection structures in 3D are applied for interpretation. Using various field and synthetic data sets, this thesis investigates which attributes are particularly suitable for this purpose. Additionally, the study demonstrates how selected attributes can be utilized through specific processing and classification methods to create 3D facies models. The ability to generate attribute-based 3D GPR facies models allows for partially automated and more efficient interpretations in the future. Furthermore, the results obtained in this manner describe the subsurface in a reproducible and more comprehensive manner than what has typically been achievable through manual interpretation methods.
A comprehensive study on seismic hazard and earthquake triggering is crucial for effective mitigation of earthquake risks. The destructive nature of earthquakes motivates researchers to work on forecasting despite the apparent randomness of the earthquake occurrences. Understanding their underlying mechanisms and patterns is vital, given their potential for widespread devastation and loss of life. This thesis combines methodologies, including Coulomb stress calculations and aftershock analysis, to shed light on earthquake complexities, ultimately enhancing seismic hazard assessment.
The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) criterion is widely used to predict the spatial distributions of aftershocks following large earthquakes. However, uncertainties associated with CFS calculations arise from non-unique slip inversions and unknown fault networks, particularly due to the choice of the assumed aftershocks (receiver) mechanisms. Recent studies have proposed alternative stress quantities and deep neural network approaches as superior to CFS with predefined receiver mechanisms. To challenge these propositions, I utilized 289 slip inversions from the SRCMOD database to calculate more realistic CFS values for a layered-half space and variable receiver mechanisms. The analysis also investigates the impact of magnitude cutoff, grid size variation, and aftershock duration on the ranking of stress metrics using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results reveal the performance of stress metrics significantly improves after accounting for receiver variability and for larger aftershocks and shorter time periods, without altering the relative ranking of the different stress metrics.
To corroborate Coulomb stress calculations with the findings of earthquake source studies in more detail, I studied the source properties of the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks, aiming to unravel the seismotectonics of the NW Himalayan syntaxis. I simultaneously relocated the mainshock and its largest aftershocks using phase data, followed by a comprehensive analysis of Coulomb stress changes on the aftershock planes. By computing the Coulomb failure stress changes on the aftershock faults, I found that all large aftershocks lie in regions of positive stress change, indicating triggering by either co-seismic or post-seismic slip on the mainshock fault.
Finally, I investigated the relationship between mainshock-induced stress changes and associated seismicity parameters, in particular those of the frequency-magnitude (Gutenberg-Richter) distribution and the temporal aftershock decay (Omori-Utsu law). For that purpose, I used my global data set of 127 mainshock-aftershock sequences with the calculated Coulomb Stress (ΔCFS) and the alternative receiver-independent stress metrics in the vicinity of the mainshocks and analyzed the aftershocks properties depend on the stress values. Surprisingly, the results show a clear positive correlation between the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and induced stress, contrary to expectations from laboratory experiments. This observation highlights the significance of structural heterogeneity and strength variations in seismicity patterns. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that aftershock productivity increases nonlinearly with stress, while the Omori-Utsu parameters c and p systematically decrease with increasing stress changes. These partly unexpected findings have significant implications for future estimations of aftershock hazard.
The findings in this thesis provides valuable insights into earthquake triggering mechanisms by examining the relationship between stress changes and aftershock occurrence. The results contribute to improved understanding of earthquake behavior and can aid in the development of more accurate probabilistic-seismic hazard forecasts and risk reduction strategies.
Rapidly growing seismic and macroseismic databases and simplified access to advanced machine learning methods have in recent years opened up vast opportunities to address challenges in engineering and strong motion seismology from novel, datacentric perspectives. In this thesis, I explore the opportunities of such perspectives for the tasks of ground motion modeling and rapid earthquake impact assessment, tasks with major implications for long-term earthquake disaster mitigation.
In my first study, I utilize the rich strong motion database from the Kanto basin, Japan, and apply the U-Net artificial neural network architecture to develop a deep learning based ground motion model. The operational prototype provides statistical estimates of expected ground shaking, given descriptions of a specific earthquake source, wave propagation paths, and geophysical site conditions. The U-Net interprets ground motion data in its spatial context, potentially taking into account, for example, the geological properties in the vicinity of observation sites. Predictions of ground motion intensity are thereby calibrated to individual observation sites and earthquake locations.
The second study addresses the explicit incorporation of rupture forward directivity into ground motion modeling. Incorporation of this phenomenon, causing strong, pulse like ground shaking in the vicinity of earthquake sources, is usually associated with an intolerable increase in computational demand during probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) calculations. I suggest an approach in which I utilize an artificial neural network to efficiently approximate the average, directivity-related adjustment to ground motion predictions for earthquake ruptures from the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The practical implementation in an actual PSHA calculation demonstrates the efficiency and operational readiness of my model. In a follow-up study, I present a proof of concept for an alternative strategy in which I target the generalizing applicability to ruptures other than those from the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model.
In the third study, I address the usability of pseudo-intensity reports obtained from macroseismic observations by non-expert citizens for rapid impact assessment. I demonstrate that the statistical properties of pseudo-intensity collections describing the intensity of shaking are correlated with the societal impact of earthquakes. In a second step, I develop a probabilistic model that, within minutes of an event, quantifies the probability of an earthquake to cause considerable societal impact. Under certain conditions, such a quick and preliminary method might be useful to support decision makers in their efforts to organize auxiliary measures for earthquake disaster response while results from more elaborate impact assessment frameworks are not yet available.
The application of machine learning methods to datasets that only partially reveal characteristics of Big Data, qualify the majority of results obtained in this thesis as explorative insights rather than ready-to-use solutions to real world problems. The practical usefulness of this work will be better assessed in the future by applying the approaches developed to growing and increasingly complex data sets.
Dentro de la cuenca intermontana de Quito-Guay llabamba de Ecuador, se han identificado y analizado en este estudio, cinco depósitos coluviales inusualmente grandes de antiguos deslizamientos. El gran deslizamiento rotacional MM-5 Guayllabamba es el más extenso, con un volumen de 1183 millones de m3. Las mega avalanchas de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, MM-3 Oyacoto, y MM-4 San Francisco fueron desencadenadas originalmente por una ruptura inicial que estuvo asociada a un deslizamiento rotacional, los depósitos correspondientes tienen volúmenes entre 399 a 317 millones de m3. Finalmente, el depósito de menor volumen, el deslizamiento rotacional y caída de detritos MM-2 Batán, tiene un volumen de 8,7 millones de m3. En esta tesis, se realizó un estudio detallado de estos grandes movimientos en masa utilizando métodos neotectónicos y lito-tefrostratigráficos para comprender las condiciones geológicas y geomorfológicas de contorno que podrían ser relevantes para desencadenar estos movimientos en masa. La parte neotectónica del estudio se basó en el análisis geomorfológico cualitativo y cuantitativo de estos grandes depósitos de movimientos en masa, a través de la caracterización estructural de anticlinales ubicados al este de la subcuenca de Quito y sus flancos colapsados que constituyen las áreas de ruptura. Esta parte del análisis fue además apoyada por la aplicación de diferentes índices morfométricos para revelar procesos de evolución del paisaje forzados tectónicamente que pueden haber contribuido a la generación de movimientos en masa. La parte lito-tefrostratigráfica del estudio se basó en el análisis de las características petrográficas, geoquímicas y geocronológicas de los horizontes del suelo y de las cenizas volcánicas intercaladas, con el objetivo de restringir la cronología de los eventos individuales de movimientos en masa y su posible de correlación. Los resultados se integraron en esquemas cronoestratigráficos utilizando superficies de ruptura, relaciones transversales y de superposición de depósitos de deslizamiento y estratos posteriores para comprender los movimientos en masa en el contexto tectónico y temporal del entorno de la cuenca intermontana, así como para identificar los mecanismos desencadenantes de cada evento. El movimiento en masa MM-5 Guayllabamba es el resultado del colapso de la ladera suroeste del volcán Mojanda y fue desencadenado por la interacción de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas hace aproximadamente 0,81 Ma. El primer episodio de avalancha de escombros de los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco podría estar relacionado con condiciones tanto geológicas como morfológicas, dadas las rocas altamente fracturadas y el levantamiento del anticlinal Bellavista-Catequilla que posteriormente fue inciso al pie de la ladera por la erosión fluvial. Este primer episodio de colapso probablemente ocurrió alrededor de los 0,8 Ma. El movimiento en masa MM-2 Batán posiblemente también fue desencadenado por una combinación de condiciones geológicas y morfológicas, asociadas a una reducción de los esfuerzos litostáticos que afectaron a las formaciones Chiche y Machángara y a un aumento de los esfuerzos de cizalla durante procesos de socavación fluvial lateral en los flancos de las áreas de origen. Esto apunta a un proceso vinculado entre la erosión fluvial y los procesos de levantamiento asociados a la evolución del anticlinal El Batán-La Bota que podría haber ocurrido entre 0,5 y 0,25 Ma. La voluminosa avalancha de escombros MM-1 Conocoto, así como el segundo episodio de avalancha de escombros que generó los movimientos en masa MM-3 Oyacoto y MM-4 San Francisco, fueron provocados por el colapso gravitacional de las formaciones Mojanda y Cangahua que se caracterizan por la intercalación de cenizas volcánicas. La falla del flanco oriental de los anticlinales probablemente estuvo asociada al incremento de la humedad disponible relacionada con las variaciones climáticas regionales del Holoceno. Los resultados de la cronología de los paleosuelos combinados con los datos cronoestratigráficos y paleoclimáticos regionales sugieren que estas avalanchas de escombros se desencadenaron entre 5 y 4 ka.
La tectónica activa ha modelado los rasgos morfológicos de la cuenca intermontana Quito-Guayllabamba. El desencadenamiento de movimientos en masa en este ambiente está asociado a rupturas en litologías del Pleistoceno (sedimentos lacustres, depósitos aluviales y volcánicos) sometidas a procesos de deformación, actividad sísmica y episodios superpuestos de variabilidad climática. El Distrito Metropolitano de Quito es parte integral de este complejo entorno y de las condiciones geológicas, climáticas y topográficas que continúan influyendo en el espacio geográfico urbano dentro de esta cuenca intermontana. La ciudad de Quito comprende el área de mayor consolidación urbana incluyendo las subcuencas de Quito y San Antonio, con una población de 2,872 millones de habitantes, lo que refleja la importancia del estudio de las amenazas geológicas y climáticas inherentes a esta región.
The Central Andean region is characterized by diverse climate zones with sharp transitions between them. In this work, the area of interest is the South-Central Andes in northwestern Argentina that borders with Bolivia and Chile. The focus is the observation of soil moisture and water vapour with Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) remote-sensing methodologies. Because of the rapid temporal and spatial variations of water vapour and moisture circulations, monitoring this part of the hydrological cycle is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that control the local climate. Moreover, GNSS-based techniques have previously shown high potential and are appropriate for further investigation. This study includes both logistic-organization effort and data analysis. As for the prior, three GNSS ground stations were installed in remote locations in northwestern Argentina to acquire observations, where there was no availability of third-party data.
The methodological development for the observation of the climate variables of soil moisture and water vapour is independent and relies on different approaches. The soil-moisture estimation with GNSS reflectometry is an approximation that has demonstrated promising results, but it has yet to be operationally employed. Thus, a more advanced algorithm that exploits more observations from multiple satellite constellations was developed using data from two pilot stations in Germany. Additionally, this algorithm was slightly modified and used in a sea-level measurement campaign. Although the objective of this application is not related to monitoring hydrological parameters, its methodology is based on the same principles and helps to evaluate the core algorithm. On the other hand, water-vapour monitoring with GNSS observations is a well-established technique that is utilized operationally. Hence, the scope of this study is conducting a meteorological analysis by examining the along-the-zenith air-moisture levels and introducing indices related to the azimuthal gradient.
The results of the experiments indicate higher-quality soil moisture observations with the new algorithm. Furthermore, the analysis using the stations in northwestern Argentina illustrates the limits of this technology because of varying soil conditions and shows future research directions. The water-vapour analysis points out the strong influence of the topography on atmospheric moisture circulation and rainfall generation. Moreover, the GNSS time series allows for the identification of seasonal signatures, and the azimuthal-gradient indices permit the detection of main circulation pathways.
Assessing the impact of global change on hydrological systems is one of the greatest hydrological challenges of our time. Changes in land cover, land use, and climate have an impact on water quantity, quality, and temporal availability. There is a widespread consensus that, given the far-reaching effects of global change, hydrological systems can no longer be viewed as static in their structure; instead, they must be regarded as entire ecosystems, wherein hydrological processes interact and coevolve with biological, geomorphological, and pedological processes. To accurately predict the hydrological response under the impact of global change, it is essential to understand this complex coevolution. The knowledge of how hydrological processes, in particular the formation of subsurface (preferential) flow paths, evolve within this coevolution and how they feed back to the other processes is still very limited due to a lack of observational data.
At the hillslope scale, this intertwined system of interactions is known as the hillslope feedback cycle. This thesis aims to enhance our understanding of the hillslope feedback cycle by studying the coevolution of hillslope structure and hillslope hydrological response. Using chronosequences of moraines in two glacial forefields developed from siliceous and calcareous glacial till, the four studies shed light on the complex coevolution of hydrological, biological, and structural hillslope properties, as well as subsurface hydrological flow paths over an evolutionary period of 10 millennia in these two contrasting geologies. The findings indicate that the contrasting properties of siliceous and calcareous parent materials lead
to variations in soil structure, permeability, and water storage. As a result, different plant species and vegetation types are favored on siliceous versus calcareous parent material, leading to diverse ecosystems with distinct hydrological dynamics. The siliceous parent material was found to show a higher activity level in driving the coevolution. The soil pH resulting from parent material weathering emerges as a crucial factor, influencing vegetation development, soil formation, and consequently, hydrology. The acidic weathering of the siliceous parent material favored the accumulation of organic matter, increasing the soils’ water storage capacity and attracting acid-loving shrubs, which further promoted organic matter accumulation and ultimately led to podsolization after 10 000 years. Tracer experiments revealed that the subsurface flow path evolution was influenced by soil and vegetation development, and vice versa. Subsurface flow paths changed from vertical, heterogeneous matrix flow to finger-like flow paths over a few hundred years, evolving into macropore flow, water storage, and lateral subsurface flow after several thousand years. The changes in flow paths among younger age classes were driven by weathering processes altering soil structure, as well as by vegetation development and root activity. In the older age
class, the transition to more water storage and lateral flow was attributed to substantial organic matter accumulation and ongoing podsolization. The rapid vertical water transport in the finger-like flow paths, along with the conductive sandy material, contributed to podsolization and thus to the shift in the hillslope hydrological response.
In contrast, the calcareous site possesses a high pH buffering capacity, creating a neutral to basic environment with relatively low accumulation of dead organic matter, resulting in a lower water storage capacity and the establishment of predominantly grass vegetation. The coevolution was found to be less dynamic over the millennia. Similar to the siliceous site, significant changes in subsurface flow paths occurred between the young age classes. However, unlike the siliceous site, the subsurface flow paths at the calcareous site only altered in shape and not in direction. Tracer experiments showed that flow paths changed from vertical, heterogeneous matrix flow to vertical, finger-like flow paths after a few hundred to thousands of years, which was driven by root activities and weathering processes. Despite having a finer soil texture, water storage at the calcareous site was significantly lower than at the siliceous site, and water transport remained primarily rapid and vertical, contributing to the flourishing of grass vegetation.
The studies elucidated that changes in flow paths are predominantly shaped by the characteristics of the parent material and its weathering products, along with their complex interactions with initial water flow paths and vegetation development. Time, on the other hand, was not found to be a primary factor in describing the evolution of the hydrological response. This thesis makes a valuable contribution to closing the gap in the observations of the coevolution of hydrological processes within the hillslope feedback cycle, which is important to improve predictions of hydrological processes in changing landscapes. Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary studies in addressing the hydrological challenges arising from global change.
Watershed management requires an understanding of key hydrochemical processes. The Pra Basin is one of the five major river basins in Ghana with a population of over 4.2 million people. Currently, water resources management faces challenges due to surface water pollution caused by the unregulated release of untreated household and industrial waste into aquatic ecosystems and illegal mining activities. This has increased the need for groundwater as the most reliable water supply. Our understanding of groundwater recharge mechanisms and chemical evolution in the basin has been inadequate, making effective management difficult. Therefore, the main objective of this work is to gain insight into the processes that determine the hydrogeochemical evolution of groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The combined use of stable isotope, hydrochemistry, and water level data provides the basis for conceptualizing the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. For this purpose, the origin and evaporation rates of water infiltrating into the unsaturated zone were evaluated. In addition, Chloride Mass Balance (CMB) and Water Table Fluctuations (WTF) were considered to quantify groundwater recharge for the basin. Indices such as water quality index (WQI), sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), Wilcox diagram, and salinity (USSL) were used in this study to determine the quality of the resource for use as drinking water and for irrigation purposes. Due to the heterogeneity of the hydrochemical data, the statistical techniques of hierarchical cluster and factor analysis were applied to subdivide the data according to their spatial correlation. A conceptual hydrogeochemical model was developed and subsequently validated by applying combinatorial inverse and reaction pathway-based geochemical models to determine plausible mineral assemblages that control the chemical composition of the groundwater. The interactions between water and rock determine the groundwater quality in the Pra Basin. The results underline that the groundwater is of good quality and can be used for drinking water and irrigation purposes. It was demonstrated that there is a large groundwater potential to meet the entire Pra Basin’s current and future water demands. The main recharge area was identified as the northern zone, while the southern zone is the discharge area. The predominant influence of weathering of silicate minerals plays a key role in the chemical evolution of the groundwater. The work presented here provides fundamental insights into the hydrochemistry of the Pra Basin and provides data important to water managers for informed decision-making in planning and allocating water resources for various purposes. A novel inverse modelling approach was used in this study to identify different mineral compositions that determine the chemical evolution of groundwater in the Pra Basin. This modelling technique has the potential to simulate the composition of groundwater at the basin scale with large hydrochemical heterogeneity, using average water composition to represent established spatial groupings of water chemistry.
Volcanic hydrothermal systems are an integral part of most volcanoes and typically involve a heat source, adequate fluid supply, and fracture or pore systems through which the fluids can circulate within the volcanic edifice. Associated with this are subtle but powerful processes that can significantly influence the evolution of volcanic activity or the stability of the near-surface volcanic system through mechanical weakening, permeability reduction, and sealing of the affected volcanic rock. These processes are well constrained for rock samples by laboratory analyses but are still difficult to extrapolate and evaluate at the scale of an entire volcano. Advances in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), sensor technology, and photogrammetric processing routines now allow us to image volcanic surfaces at the centimeter scale and thus study volcanic hydrothermal systems in great detail. This thesis aims to explore the potential of UAS approaches for studying the structures, processes, and dynamics of volcanic hydrothermal systems but also to develop methodological approaches to uncover secondary information hidden in the data, capable of indicating spatiotemporal dynamics or potentially critical developments associated with hydrothermal alteration. To accomplish this, the thesis describes the investigation of two near-surface volcanic hydrothermal systems, the El Tatio geyser field in Chile and the fumarole field of La Fossa di Vulcano (Italy), both of which are among the best-studied sites of their kind. Through image analysis, statistical, and spatial analyses we have been able to provide the most detailed structural images of both study sites to date, with new insights into the driving forces of such systems but also revealing new potential controls, which are summarized in conceptual site-specific models. Furthermore, the thesis explores methodological remote sensing approaches to detect, classify and constrain hydrothermal alteration and surface degassing from UAS-derived data, evaluated them by mineralogical and chemical ground-truthing, and compares the alteration pattern with the present-day degassing activity. A significant contribution of the often neglected diffuse degassing activity to the total amount of degassing is revealed and constrains secondary processes and dynamics associated with hydrothermal alteration that lead to potentially critical developments like surface sealing. The results and methods used provide new approaches for alteration research, for the monitoring of degassing and alteration effects, and for thermal monitoring of fumarole fields, with the potential to be incorporated into volcano monitoring routines.
With Arctic ground as a huge and temperature-sensitive carbon reservoir, maintaining low ground temperatures and frozen conditions to prevent further carbon emissions that contrib-ute to global climate warming is a key element in humankind’s fight to maintain habitable con-ditions on earth. Former studies showed that during the late Pleistocene, Arctic ground condi-tions were generally colder and more stable as the result of an ecosystem dominated by large herbivorous mammals and vast extents of graminoid vegetation – the mammoth steppe. Characterised by high plant productivity (grassland) and low ground insulation due to animal-caused compression and removal of snow, this ecosystem enabled deep permafrost aggrad-ation. Now, with tundra and shrub vegetation common in the terrestrial Arctic, these effects are not in place anymore. However, it appears to be possible to recreate this ecosystem local-ly by artificially increasing animal numbers, and hence keep Arctic ground cold to reduce or-ganic matter decomposition and carbon release into the atmosphere.
By measuring thaw depth, total organic carbon and total nitrogen content, stable carbon iso-tope ratio, radiocarbon age, n-alkane and alcohol characteristics and assessing dominant vegetation types along grazing intensity transects in two contrasting Arctic areas, it was found that recreating conditions locally, similar to the mammoth steppe, seems to be possible. For permafrost-affected soil, it was shown that intensive grazing in direct comparison to non-grazed areas reduces active layer depth and leads to higher TOC contents in the active layer soil. For soil only frozen on top in winter, an increase of TOC with grazing intensity could not be found, most likely because of confounding factors such as vertical water and carbon movement, which is not possible with an impermeable layer in permafrost. In both areas, high animal activity led to a vegetation transformation towards species-poor graminoid-dominated landscapes with less shrubs. Lipid biomarker analysis revealed that, even though the available organic material is different between the study areas, in both permafrost-affected and sea-sonally frozen soils the organic material in sites affected by high animal activity was less de-composed than under less intensive grazing pressure. In conclusion, high animal activity af-fects decomposition processes in Arctic soils and the ground thermal regime, visible from reduced active layer depth in permafrost areas. Therefore, grazing management might be utilised to locally stabilise permafrost and reduce Arctic carbon emissions in the future, but is likely not scalable to the entire permafrost region.
Large parts of the Earth’s interior are inaccessible to direct observation, yet global geodynamic processes are governed by the physical material properties under extreme pressure and temperature conditions. It is therefore essential to investigate the deep Earth’s physical properties through in-situ laboratory experiments. With this goal in mind, the optical properties of mantle minerals at high pressure offer a unique way to determine a variety of physical properties, in a straight-forward, reproducible, and time-effective manner, thus providing valuable insights into the physical processes of the deep Earth. This thesis focusses on the system Mg-Fe-O, specifically on the optical properties of periclase (MgO) and its iron-bearing variant ferropericlase ((Mg,Fe)O), forming a major planetary building block. The primary objective is to establish links between physical material properties and optical properties. In particular the spin transition in ferropericlase, the second-most abundant phase of the lower mantle, is known to change the physical material properties. Although the spin transition region likely extends down to the core-mantle boundary, the ef-fects of the mixed-spin state, where both high- and low-spin state are present, remains poorly constrained.
In the studies presented herein, we show how optical properties are linked to physical properties such as electrical conductivity, radiative thermal conductivity and viscosity. We also show how the optical properties reveal changes in the chemical bonding. Furthermore, we unveil how the chemical bonding, the optical and other physical properties are affected by the iron spin transition. We find opposing trends in the pres-sure dependence of the refractive index of MgO and (Mg,Fe)O. From 1 atm to ~140 GPa, the refractive index of MgO decreases by ~2.4% from 1.737 to 1.696 (±0.017). In contrast, the refractive index of (Mg0.87Fe0.13)O (Fp13) and (Mg0.76Fe0.24)O (Fp24) ferropericlase increases with pressure, likely because Fe Fe interactions between adjacent iron sites hinder a strong decrease of polarizability, as it is observed with increasing density in the case of pure MgO. An analysis of the index dispersion in MgO (decreasing by ~23% from 1 atm to ~103 GPa) reflects a widening of the band gap from ~7.4 eV at 1 atm to ~8.5 (±0.6) eV at ~103 GPa. The index dispersion (between 550 and 870 nm) of Fp13 reveals a decrease by a factor of ~3 over the spin transition range (~44–100 GPa). We show that the electrical band gap of ferropericlase significantly widens up to ~4.7 eV in the mixed spin region, equivalent to an increase by a factor of ~1.7. We propose that this is due to a lower electron mobility between adjacent Fe2+ sites of opposite spin, explaining the previously observed low electrical conductivity in the mixed spin region. From the study of absorbance spectra in Fp13, we show an increasing covalency of the Fe-O bond with pressure for high-spin ferropericlase, whereas in the low-spin state a trend to a more ionic nature of the Fe-O bond is observed, indicating a bond weakening effect of the spin transition. We found that the spin transition is ultimately caused by both an increase of the ligand field-splitting energy and a decreasing spin-pairing energy of high-spin Fe2+.
Climate change fundamentally transforms glaciated high-alpine regions, with well-known cryospheric and hydrological implications, such as accelerating glacier retreat, transiently increased runoff, longer snow-free periods and more frequent and intense summer rainstorms. These changes affect the availability and transport of sediments in high alpine areas by altering the interaction and intensity of different erosion processes and catchment properties.
Gaining insight into the future alterations in suspended sediment transport by high alpine streams is crucial, given its wide-ranging implications, e.g. for flood damage potential, flood hazard in downstream river reaches, hydropower production, riverine ecology and water quality. However, the current understanding of how climate change will impact suspended sediment dynamics in these high alpine regions is limited. For one, this is due to the scarcity of measurement time series that are long enough to e.g. infer trends. On the other hand, it is difficult – if not impossible – to develop process-based models, due to the complexity and multitude of processes involved in high alpine sediment dynamics. Therefore, knowledge has so far been confined to conceptual models (which do not facilitate deriving concrete timings or magnitudes for individual catchments) or qualitative estimates (‘higher export in warmer years’) that may not be able to capture decreases in sediment export. Recently, machine-learning approaches have gained in popularity for modeling sediment dynamics, since their black box nature tailors them to the problem at hand, i.e. relatively well-understood input and output data, linked by very complex processes.
Therefore, the overarching aim of this thesis is to estimate sediment export from the high alpine Ötztal valley in Tyrol, Austria, over decadal timescales in the past and future – i.e. timescales relevant to anthropogenic climate change. This is achieved by informing, extending, evaluating and applying a quantile regression forest (QRF) approach, i.e. a nonparametric, multivariate machine-learning technique based on random forest.
The first study included in this thesis aimed to understand present sediment dynamics, i.e. in the period with available measurements (up to 15 years). To inform the modeling setup for the two subsequent studies, this study identified the most important predictors, areas within the catchments and time periods. To that end, water and sediment yields from three nested gauges in the upper Ötztal, Vent, Sölden and Tumpen (98 to almost 800 km² catchment area, 930 to 3772 m a.s.l.) were analyzed for their distribution in space, their seasonality and spatial differences therein, and the relative importance of short-term events. The findings suggest that the areas situated above 2500 m a.s.l., containing glacier tongues and recently deglaciated areas, play a pivotal role in sediment generation across all sub-catchments. In contrast, precipitation events were relatively unimportant (on average, 21 % of annual sediment yield was associated to precipitation events). Thus, the second and third study focused on the Vent catchment and its sub-catchment above gauge Vernagt (11.4 and 98 km², 1891 to 3772 m a.s.l.), due to their higher share of areas above 2500 m. Additionally, they included discharge, precipitation and air temperature (as well as their antecedent conditions) as predictors.
The second study aimed to estimate sediment export since the 1960s/70s at gauges Vent and Vernagt. This was facilitated by the availability of long records of the predictors, discharge, precipitation and air temperature, and shorter records (four and 15 years) of turbidity-derived sediment concentrations at the two gauges. The third study aimed to estimate future sediment export until 2100, by applying the QRF models developed in the second study to pre-existing precipitation and temperature projections (EURO-CORDEX) and discharge projections (physically-based hydroclimatological and snow model AMUNDSEN) for the three representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
The combined results of the second and third study show overall increasing sediment export in the past and decreasing export in the future. This suggests that peak sediment is underway or has already passed – unless precipitation changes unfold differently than represented in the projections or changes in the catchment erodibility prevail and override these trends. Despite the overall future decrease, very high sediment export is possible in response to precipitation events. This two-fold development has important implications for managing sediment, flood hazard and riverine ecology.
This thesis shows that QRF can be a very useful tool to model sediment export in high-alpine areas. Several validations in the second study showed good performance of QRF and its superiority to traditional sediment rating curves – especially in periods that contained high sediment export events, which points to its ability to deal with threshold effects. A technical limitation of QRF is the inability to extrapolate beyond the range of values represented in the training data. We assessed the number and severity of such out-of-observation-range (OOOR) days in both studies, which showed that there were few OOOR days in the second study and that uncertainties associated with OOOR days were small before 2070 in the third study. As the pre-processed data and model code have been made publically available, future studies can easily test further approaches or apply QRF to further catchments.
The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) has identified river morphological alteration and diffuse pollution as the two main pressures affecting water bodies in Europe at the catchment scale. Consequently, river restoration has become a priority to achieve the WFD's objective of good ecological status. However, little is known about the effects of stream morphological changes, such as re-meandering, on in-stream nitrate retention at the river network scale. Therefore, catchment nitrate modeling is necessary to guide the implementation of spatially targeted and cost-effective mitigation measures. Meanwhile, Germany, like many other regions in central Europe, has experienced consecutive summer droughts from 2015-2018, resulting in significant changes in river nitrate concentrations in various catchments. However, the mechanistic exploration of catchment nitrate responses to changing weather conditions is still lacking.
Firstly, a fully distributed, process-based catchment Nitrate model (mHM-Nitrate) was used, which was properly calibrated and comprehensively evaluated at numerous spatially distributed nitrate sampling locations. Three calibration schemes were designed, taking into account land use, stream order, and mean nitrate concentrations, and they varied in spatial coverage but used data from the same period (2011–2019). The model performance for discharge was similar among the three schemes, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) scores ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. However, for nitrate concentrations, scheme 2 outperformed schemes 1 and 3 when compared to observed data from eight gauging stations. This was likely because scheme 2 incorporated a diverse range of data, including low discharge values and nitrate concentrations, and thus provided a better representation of within-catchment heterogenous. Therefore, the study suggests that strategically selecting gauging stations that reflect the full range of within-catchment heterogeneity is more important for calibration than simply increasing the number of stations.
Secondly, the mHM-Nitrate model was used to reveal the causal relations between sequential droughts and nitrate concentration in the Bode catchment (3200 km2) in central Germany, where stream nitrate concentrations exhibited contrasting trends from upstream to downstream reaches. The model was evaluated using data from six gauging stations, reflecting different levels of runoff components and their associated nitrate-mixing from upstream to downstream. Results indicated that the mHM-Nitrate model reproduced dynamics of daily discharge and nitrate concentration well, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency ≥ 0.73 for discharge and Kling-Gupta Efficiency ≥ 0.50 for nitrate concentration at most stations. Particularly, the spatially contrasting trends of nitrate concentration were successfully captured by the model. The decrease of nitrate concentration in the lowland area in drought years (2015-2018) was presumably due to (1) limited terrestrial export loading (ca. 40% lower than that of normal years 2004-2014), and (2) increased in-stream retention efficiency (20% higher in summer within the whole river network). From a mechanistic modelling perspective, this study provided insights into spatially heterogeneous flow and nitrate dynamics and effects of sequential droughts, which shed light on water-quality responses to future climate change, as droughts are projected to be more frequent.
Thirdly, this study investigated the effects of stream restoration via re-meandering on in-stream nitrate retention at network-scale in the well-monitored Bode catchment. The mHM-Nitrate model showed good performance in reproducing daily discharge and nitrate concentrations, with median Kling-Gupta values of 0.78 and 0.74, respectively. The mean and standard deviation of gross nitrate retention efficiency, which accounted for both denitrification and assimilatory uptake, were 5.1 ± 0.61% and 74.7 ± 23.2% in winter and summer, respectively, within the stream network. The study found that in the summer, denitrification rates were about two times higher in lowland sub-catchments dominated by agricultural lands than in mountainous sub-catchments dominated by forested areas, with median ± SD of 204 ± 22.6 and 102 ± 22.1 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively. Similarly, assimilatory uptake rates were approximately five times higher in streams surrounded by lowland agricultural areas than in those in higher-elevation, forested areas, with median ± SD of 200 ± 27.1 and 39.1 ± 8.7 mg N m-2 d-1, respectively. Therefore, restoration strategies targeting lowland agricultural areas may have greater potential for increasing nitrate retention. The study also found that restoring stream sinuosity could increase net nitrate retention efficiency by up to 25.4 ± 5.3%, with greater effects seen in small streams. These results suggest that restoration efforts should consider augmenting stream sinuosity to increase nitrate retention and decrease nitrate concentrations at the catchment scale.
The urban heat island (UHI) effect, describing an elevated temperature of urban areas compared with their natural surroundings, can expose urban dwellers to additional heat stress, especially during hot summer days. A comprehensive understanding of the UHI dynamics along with urbanization is of great importance to efficient heat stress mitigation strategies towards sustainable urban development. This is, however, still challenging due to the difficulties of isolating the influences of various contributing factors that interact with each other. In this work, I present a systematical and quantitative analysis of how urban intrinsic properties (e.g., urban size, density, and morphology) influence UHI intensity.
To this end, we innovatively combine urban growth modelling and urban climate simulation to separate the influence of urban intrinsic factors from that of background climate, so as to focus on the impact of urbanization on the UHI effect. The urban climate model can create a laboratory environment which makes it possible to conduct controlled experiments to separate the influences from different driving factors, while the urban growth model provides detailed 3D structures that can be then parameterized into different urban development scenarios tailored for these experiments. The novelty in the methodology and experiment design leads to the following achievements of our work.
First, we develop a stochastic gravitational urban growth model that can generate 3D structures varying in size, morphology, compactness, and density gradient. We compare various characteristics, like fractal dimensions (box-counting, area-perimeter scaling, area-population scaling, etc.), and radial gradient profiles of land use share and population density, against those of real-world cities from empirical studies. The model shows the capability of creating 3D structures resembling real-world cities. This model can generate 3D structure samples for controlled experiments to assess the influence of some urban intrinsic properties in question. [Chapter 2]
With the generated 3D structures, we run several series of simulations with urban structures varying in properties like size, density and morphology, under the same weather conditions. Analyzing how the 2m air temperature based canopy layer urban heat island (CUHI) intensity varies in response to the changes of the considered urban factors, we find the CUHI intensity of a city is directly related to the built-up density and an amplifying effect that urban sites have on each other. We propose a Gravitational Urban Morphology (GUM) indicator to capture the neighbourhood warming effect. We build a regression model to estimate the CUHI intensity based on urban size, urban gross building volume, and the GUM indicator. Taking the Berlin area as an example, we show the regression model capable of predicting the CUHI intensity under various urban development scenarios. [Chapter 3]
Based on the multi-annual average summer surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity derived from Land surface temperature, we further study how urban intrinsic factors influence the SUHI effect of the 5,000 largest urban clusters in Europe. We find a similar 3D GUM indicator to be an effective predictor of the SUHI intensity of these European cities. Together with other urban factors (vegetation condition, elevation, water coverage), we build different multivariate linear regression models and a climate space based Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model that can better predict SUHI intensity. By investigating the roles background climate factors play in modulating the coefficients of the GWR model, we extend the multivariate linear model to a nonlinear one by integrating some climate parameters, such as the average of daily maximal temperature and latitude. This makes it applicable across a range of background climates. The nonlinear model outperforms linear models in SUHI assessment as it captures the interaction of urban factors and the background climate. [Chapter 4]
Our work reiterates the essential roles of urban density and morphology in shaping the urban thermal environment. In contrast to many previous studies that link bigger cities with higher UHI intensity, we show that cities larger in the area do not necessarily experience a stronger UHI effect. In addition, the results extend our knowledge by demonstrating the influence of urban 3D morphology on the UHI effect. This underlines the importance of inspecting cities as a whole from the 3D perspective. While urban 3D morphology is an aggregated feature of small-scale urban elements, the influence it has on the city-scale UHI intensity cannot simply be scaled up from that of its neighbourhood-scale components. The spatial composition and configuration of urban elements both need to be captured when quantifying urban 3D morphology as nearby neighbourhoods also cast influences on each other. Our model serves as a useful UHI assessment tool for the quantitative comparison of urban intervention/development scenarios. It can support harnessing the capacity of UHI mitigation through optimizing urban morphology, with the potential of integrating climate change into heat mitigation strategies.
Mountain ranges can fundamentally influence the physical and and chemical processes that shape Earths’ surface. With elevations of up to several kilometers they create climatic enclaves by interacting with atmospheric circulation and hydrologic systems, thus leading to a specific distribution of flora and fauna. As a result, the interiors of many Cenozoic mountain ranges are characterized by an arid climate, internally drained and sediment-filled basins, as well as unique ecosystems that are isolated from the adjacent humid, low-elevation regions along their flanks and forelands. These high-altitude interiors of orogens are often characterized by low relief and coalesced sedimentary basins, commonly referred to as plateaus, tectono-geomorphic entities that result from the complex interactions between mantle-driven geological and tectonic conditions and superposed atmospheric and hydrological processes. The efficiency of these processes and the fate of orogenic plateaus is therefore closely tied to the balance of constructive and destructive processes – tectonic uplift and erosion, respectively. In numerous geological studies it has been shown that mountain ranges are delicate systems that can be obliterated by an imbalance of these underlying forces. As such, Cenozoic mountain ranges might not persist on long geological timescales and will be destroyed by erosion or tectonic collapse. Advancing headward erosion of river systems that drain the flanks of the orogen may ultimately sever the internal drainage conditions and the maintenance of storage of sediments within the plateau, leading to destruction of plateau morphology and connectivity with the foreland. Orogenic collapse may be associated with the changeover from a compressional stress field with regional shortening and topographic growth, to a tensional stress field with regional extensional deformation and ensuing incision of the plateau. While the latter case is well-expressed by active extensional faults in the interior parts of the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalaya, for example, the former has been attributed to have breached the internally drained areas of the high-elevation sectors of the Iranian Plateau.
In the case of the Andes of South America and their internally drained Altiplano-Puna Plateau, signs of both processes have been previously described. However, in the orogenic collapse scenario the nature of the extensional structures had been primarily investigated in the northern and southern terminations of the plateau; in some cases, the extensional faults were even regarded to be inactive. After a shallow earthquake in 2020 within the Eastern Cordillera of Argentina that was associated with extensional deformation, the state of active deformation and the character of the stress field in the central parts of the plateau received renewed interest to explain a series of extensional structures in the northernmost sectors of the plateau in north-western Argentina. This study addresses (1) the issue of tectonic orogenic collapse of the Andes and the destruction of plateau morphology by studying the fill and erosion history of the central eastern Andean Plateau using sedimentological and geochronological data and (2) the kinematics, timing and magnitude of extensional structures that form well-expressed fault scarps in sediments of the regional San Juan del Oro surface, which is an integral part of the Andean Plateau and adjacent morphotectonic provinces to the east.
Importantly, sediment properties and depositional ages document that the San Juan del Oro Surface was not part of the internally-drained Andean Plateau, but rather associated with a foreland-directed drainage system, which was modified by the Andean orogeny and that became successively incorporated into the orogen by the eastward-migration of the Andean deformation front during late Miocene – Pliocene time. Structural and geomorphic observations within the plateau indicate that extensional processes must have been repeatedly active between the late Miocene and Holocene supporting the notion of plateau-wide extensional processes, potentially associated with Mw ~ 7 earthquakes. The close relationship between extensional joints and fault orientations underscores that 3 was oriented horizontally in NW-SE direction and 1 was vertical. This unambiguously documents that the observed deformation is related to gravitational forces that drive the orogenic collapse of the plateau. Applied geochronological analyses suggest that normal faulting in the northern Puna was active at about 3 Ma, based on paired cosmogenic nuclide dating of sediment fill units. Possibly due to regional normal faulting the drainage system within the plateau was modified, promoting fluvial incision.
El plateau Andino es el segundo plateau orogénico más grande del mundo y se ubica en los Andes Centrales, desarrollado en un sistema orogénico no colisional. Se extiende desde el sur del Perú (15°S), hasta el norte de Argentina y Chile (27°30´S). A partir de los 24°S y prologándose hacia el sur, el plateau Andino se denomina Puna y está caracterizado por un sistema de cuencas endorreicas y salares delimitados por cordones montañosos. Entre los 26° y 27°30´S, la Puna encuentra su límite austral en una zona de transición entre una zona de subducción normal y una zona de subducción plana o “flat slab” que se prolonga hasta los 33°S. Diversos estudios documentan la ocurrencia de un aumento del espesor cortical, y levantamiento episódico y diacrónico del relieve, alcanzando su configuración actual durante el Mioceno tardío. Posteriormente, el plateau habría experimentado un cambio en el estilo de deformación dominado por procesos extensionales evidenciado por fallas y terremotos de cinemática normal. Sin embargo, en el borde sur del plateau de la Puna y en las áreas delimitadas con el resto del orógeno, la variación del campo de esfuerzo no está del todo comprendida, reflejando una excelente oportunidad para evaluar cómo el campo de esfuerzo puede evolucionar durante el desarrollo del orógeno y cómo puede verse afectado por la presencia/ausencia de un plateau orogénico, así como también por la existencia de anisotropías estructurales propias de cada unidad morfotectónica.
Esta Tesis investiga la relación entre la deformación cortical somera y la evolución en tiempo y espacio del campo de esfuerzos en el sector sur del plateau Andino, durante el cenozoico tardío. Para realizar esta investigación, se utilizaron técnicas de obtención de edades radiométricas con el método Uranio-Plomo (U-Pb), análisis de fallas mesoscópicas para la obtención de tensores de esfuerzos y delimitación de la orientación de los ejes principales de esfuerzos, análisis de anisotropía de susceptibilidad magnética en rocas sedimentarias y volcanoclásticas para estimar direcciones de acortamiento o direcciones de transporte sedimentario, técnicas de modelado cinemático para llegar a una aproximación de las estructuras corticales profundas asociadas a la deformación allí registrada, y un análisis morfométrico para la identificación de indicadores geomorfológicos asociados a deformación producto de la actividad tectónica cuaternaria.
Combinando estos resultados con los antecedentes previamente documentados, el estudio revela una compleja variación del campo de esfuerzo caracterizado por cambios en la orientación y permutaciones verticales de los ejes principales de esfuerzos, durante cada régimen de deformación, durante los últimos ~24 Ma. La evolución del campo de esfuerzos puede ser asociada temporalmente a tres fases orogénicas involucradas con la evolución de los Andes Centrales en esta latitud: (1) una primera fase con un régimen de esfuerzos compresivos de acortamiento E-O documentado desde el Eoceno, Oligoceno tardío hasta el Mioceno medio en el área, coincide con la fase de construcción andina, engrosamiento y crecimiento de la corteza y levantamiento topográfico; (2) una segunda fase caracterizada por un régimen de esfuerzos de transcurrencia, a partir de los ~11 Ma en el borde occidental y compresión y transcurrencia a los~5 Ma en el borde oriental del plateau de la Puna, y un régimen de esfuerzo compresivos en Famatina y las Sierras Pampeanas interpretado como una transición entre la construcción orogénica del Neógeno y la máxima acumulación de deformación y el alzamiento topográfico del plateau de la Puna, y (3) una tercera fase donde el régimen se caracteriza por la transcurrencia en la Puna y en su borde occidental y en su borde oriental con las Sierras Pampeanas, después de ~5-4 Ma, interpretado como un régimen de esfuerzos controlados por el engrosamiento cortical desarrollado a lo largo del borde sur del plateau Altiplano/Puna, previo a un colapso orogénico. Los resultados dejan en evidencia que el borde del plateau experimentó el paso desde un régimen compresivo hacia uno transcurrente, que se diferencia de la extensión documentada hacia el norte en el plateau Andino para el mismo período. Cambios en los esfuerzos similares han sido documentado durante la construcción del plateau Tibetano, en donde un régimen de esfuerzo predominantemente compresivo cambió a un régimen de transcurrente cuando el plateau habría alcanzado la mitad de su elevación actual, y que posteriormente derivó en un régimen extensional, entre 14 y 4 Ma, cuando la altitud del plateau fue superior al 80% respecto a su actitud actual, lo que podría estar indicando que los regímenes transcurrentes representan etapas transicionales entre las zonas externas del plateau bajo compresión y las zonas internas, en las que los regímenes extensionales son más viables de ocurrir.
Earthquake modeling is the key to a profound understanding of a rupture. Its kinematics or dynamics are derived from advanced rupture models that allow, for example, to reconstruct the direction and velocity of the rupture front or the evolving slip distribution behind the rupture front. Such models are often parameterized by a lattice of interacting sub-faults with many degrees of freedom, where, for example, the time history of the slip and rake on each sub-fault are inverted. To avoid overfitting or other numerical instabilities during a finite-fault estimation, most models are stabilized by geometric rather than physical constraints such as smoothing.
As a basis for the inversion approach of this study, we build on a new pseudo-dynamic rupture model (PDR) with only a few free parameters and a simple geometry as a physics-based solution of an earthquake rupture. The PDR derives the instantaneous slip from a given stress drop on the fault plane, with boundary conditions on the developing crack surface guaranteed at all times via a boundary element approach. As a side product, the source time function on each point on the rupture plane is not constraint and develops by itself without additional parametrization. The code was made publicly available as part of the Pyrocko and Grond Python packages. The approach was compared with conventional modeling for different earthquakes. For example, for the Mw 7.1 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, the effects of geometric changes in the rupture surface on the slip and slip rate distributions could be reproduced by simply projecting stress vectors. For the Mw 7.5 2018 Palu, Indonesia, strike-slip earthquake, we also modelled rupture propagation using the 2D Eikonal equation and assuming a linear relationship between rupture and shear wave velocity. This allowed us to give a deeper and faster propagating rupture front and the resulting upward refraction as a new possible explanation for the apparent supershear observed at the Earth's surface.
The thesis investigates three aspects of earthquake inversion using PDR: (1) to test whether implementing a simplified rupture model with few parameters into a probabilistic Bayesian scheme without constraining geometric parameters is feasible, and whether this leads to fast and robust results that can be used for subsequent fast information systems (e.g., ground motion predictions). (2) To investigate whether combining broadband and strong-motion seismic records together with near-field ground deformation data improves the reliability of estimated rupture models in a Bayesian inversion. (3) To investigate whether a complex rupture can be represented by the inversion of multiple PDR sources and for what type of earthquakes this is recommended.
I developed the PDR inversion approach and applied the joint data inversions to two seismic sequences in different tectonic settings. Using multiple frequency bands and a multiple source inversion approach, I captured the multi-modal behaviour of the Mw 8.2 2021 South Sandwich subduction earthquake with a large, curved and slow rupturing shallow earthquake bounded by two faster and deeper smaller events. I could cross-validate the results with other methods, i.e., P-wave energy back-projection, a clustering analysis of aftershocks and a simple tsunami forward model.
The joint analysis of ground deformation and seismic data within a multiple source inversion also shed light on an earthquake triplet, which occurred in July 2022 in SE Iran. From the inversion and aftershock relocalization, I found indications for a vertical separation between the shallower mainshocks within the sedimentary cover and deeper aftershocks at the sediment-basement interface. The vertical offset could be caused by the ductile response of the evident salt layer to stress perturbations from the mainshocks.
The applications highlight the versatility of the simple PDR in probabilistic seismic source inversion capturing features of rather different, complex earthquakes. Limitations, as the evident focus on the major slip patches of the rupture are discussed as well as differences to other finite fault modeling methods.
The deformation style of mountain belts is greatly influenced by the upper plate architecture created during preceding deformation phases. The Mesozoic Salta Rift extensional phase has created a dominant structural and lithological framework that controls Cenozoic deformation and exhumation patterns in the Central Andes. Studying the nature of these pre-existing anisotropies is a key to understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of exhumation and its controlling factors. The Eastern Cordillera in particular, has a structural grain that is in part controlled by Salta Rift structures and their orientation relative to Andean shortening. As a result, there are areas in which Andean deformation prevails and areas where the influence of the Salta Rift is the main control on deformation patterns.
Between 23 and 24°S, lithological and structural heterogeneities imposed by the Lomas de Olmedo sub-basin (Salta Rift basin) affect the development of the Eastern Cordillera fold-and-thrust belt. The inverted northern margin of the sub-basin now forms the southern boundary of the intermontane Cianzo basin. The former western margin of the sub-basin is located at the confluence of the Subandean Zone, the Santa Barbara System and the Eastern Cordillera. Here, the Salta Rift basin architecture is responsible for the distribution of these morphotectonic provinces. In this study we use a multi-method approach consisting of low-temperature (U-Th-Sm)/He and apatite fission track thermochronology, detrital geochronology, structural and sedimentological analyses to investigate the Mesozoic structural inheritance of the Lomas de Olmedo sub-basin and Cenozoic exhumation patterns.
Characterization of the extension-related Tacurú Group as an intermediate succession between Paleozoic basement and the syn-rift infill of the Lomas de Olmedo sub-basin reveals a Jurassic maximum depositional age. Zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He cooling ages record a pre-Cretaceous onset of exhumation for the rift shoulders in the northern part of the sub-basin, whereas the western shoulder shows a more recent onset (140–115 Ma). Variations in the sedimentary thickness of syn- and post-rift strata document the evolution of accommodation space in the sub-basin. While the thickness of syn-rift strata increases rapidly toward the northern basin margin, the post-rift strata thickness decreases toward the margin and forms a condensed section on the rift shoulder.
Inversion of Salta Rift structures commenced between the late Oligocene and Miocene (24–15 Ma) in the ranges surrounding the Cianzo basin. The eastern and western limbs of the Cianzo syncline, located in the hanging wall of the basin-bounding Hornocal fault, show diachronous exhumation. At the same time, western fault blocks of Tilcara Range, south of the Cianzo basin, began exhuming in the late Oligocene to early Miocene (26–16 Ma). Eastward propagation to the frontal thrust and to the Paleozoic strata east of the Tilcara Range occurred in the middle Miocene (22–10 Ma) and the late Miocene–early Pliocene (10–4 Ma), respectively.
Volcanic hazard assessment relies on physics-based models of hazards, such as lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, whose outcomes are very sensitive to the location where future eruptions will occur. On the contrary, forecast of vent opening locations in volcanic areas typically relies on purely data-driven approaches, where the spatial density of past eruptive vents informs the probability maps of future vent opening. Such techniques may be suboptimal in volcanic systems with missing or scarce data, and where the controls on magma pathways may change over time. An alternative approach was recently proposed, relying on a model of stress-driven pathways of magmatic dikes. In that approach, the crustal stress was optimized so that dike trajectories linked consistently the location of the magma chamber to that of past vents. The retrieved information on the stress state was then used to forecast future dike trajectories. The validation of such an approach requires extensive application to nature. Before doing so, however, several important limitations need to be removed, most importantly the two-dimensional (2D) character of the models and theoretical concepts. In this thesis, I develop methods and tools so that a physics-based strategy of stress inversion and eruptive vent forecast in volcanoes can be applied to three dimensional (3D) problems. In the first part, I test the stress inversion and vent forecast strategy on analog models, still within a 2D framework, but improving on the efficiency of the stress optimization. In the second part, I discuss how to correctly account for gravitational loading/unloading due to complex 3D topography with a Boundary-Element numerical model. Then, I develop a new, simplified but fast model of dike pathways in 3D, designed for running large numbers of simulations at minimal computational cost, and able to backtrack dike trajectories from vents on the surface. Finally, I combine the stress and dike models to simulate dike pathways in synthetic calderas. In the third part, I describe a framework of stress inversion and vent forecast strategy in 3D for calderas. The stress inversion relies on, first, describing the magma storage below a caldera in terms of a probability density function. Next, dike trajectories are backtracked from the known locations of past vents down through the crust, and the optimization algorithm seeks for the stress models which lead trajectories through the regions of highest probability. I apply the new strategy to the synthetic scenarios presented in the second part, and I exploit the results from the stress inversions to produce probability maps of future vent locations for some of those scenarios. In the fourth part, I present the inversion of different deformation source models applied to the ongoing ground deformation observed across the Rhenish Massif in Central Europe. The region includes the Eifel Volcanic Fields in Germany, a potential application case for the vent forecast strategy. The results show how the observed deformation may be due to melt accumulation in sub-horizontal structures in the lower crust or upper mantle. The thesis concludes with a discussion of the stress inversion and vent forecast strategy, its limitations and applicability to real volcanoes. Potential developments of the modeling tools and concepts presented here are also discussed, as well as possible applications to other geophysical problems.
Magmatic-hydrothermal systems form a variety of ore deposits at different proximities to upper-crustal hydrous magma chambers, ranging from greisenization in the roof zone of the intrusion, porphyry mineralization at intermediate depths to epithermal vein deposits near the surface. The physical transport processes and chemical precipitation mechanisms vary between deposit types and are often still debated.
The majority of magmatic-hydrothermal ore deposits are located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, whose eastern part is characterized by the Mesozoic to Cenozoic orogenic belts of the western North and South Americas, namely the American Cordillera. Major magmatic-hydrothermal ore deposits along the American Cordillera include (i) porphyry Cu(-Mo-Au) deposits (along the western cordilleras of Mexico, the western U.S., Canada, Chile, Peru, and Argentina); (ii) Climax- (and sub−) type Mo deposits (Colorado Mineral Belt and northern New Mexico); and (iii) porphyry and IS-type epithermal Sn(-W-Ag) deposits of the Central Andean Tin Belt (Bolivia, Peru and northern Argentina).
The individual studies presented in this thesis primarily focus on the formation of different styles of mineralization located at different proximities to the intrusion in magmatic-hydrothermal systems along the American Cordillera. This includes (i) two individual geochemical studies on the Sweet Home Mine in the Colorado Mineral Belt (potential endmember of peripheral Climax-type mineralization); (ii) one numerical modeling study setup in a generic porphyry Cu-environment; and (iii) a numerical modeling study on the Central Andean Tin Belt-type Pirquitas Mine in NW Argentina.
Microthermometric data of fluid inclusions trapped in greisen quartz and fluorite from the Sweet Home Mine (Detroit City Portal) suggest that the early-stage mineralization precipitated from low- to medium-salinity (1.5-11.5 wt.% equiv. NaCl), CO2-bearing fluids at temperatures between 360 and 415°C and at depths of at least 3.5 km. Stable isotope and noble gas isotope data indicate that greisen formation and base metal mineralization at the Sweet Home Mine was related to fluids of different origins. Early magmatic fluids were the principal source for mantle-derived volatiles (CO2, H2S/SO2, noble gases), which subsequently mixed with significant amounts of heated meteoric water. Mixing of magmatic fluids with meteoric water is constrained by δ2Hw-δ18Ow relationships of fluid inclusions. The deep hydrothermal mineralization at the Sweet Home Mine shows features similar to deep hydrothermal vein mineralization at Climax-type Mo deposits or on their periphery. This suggests that fluid migration and the deposition of ore and gangue minerals in the Sweet Home Mine was triggered by a deep-seated magmatic intrusion.
The second study on the Sweet Home Mine presents Re-Os molybdenite ages of 65.86±0.30 Ma from a Mo-mineralized major normal fault, namely the Contact Structure, and multimineral Rb-Sr isochron ages of 26.26±0.38 Ma and 25.3±3.0 Ma from gangue minerals in greisen assemblages. The age data imply that mineralization at the Sweet Home Mine formed in two separate events: Late Cretaceous (Laramide-related) and Oligocene (Rio Grande Rift-related). Thus, the age of Mo mineralization at the Sweet Home Mine clearly predates that of the Oligocene Climax-type deposits elsewhere in the Colorado Mineral Belt. The Re-Os and Rb-Sr ages also constrain the age of the latest deformation along the Contact Structure to between 62.77±0.50 Ma and 26.26±0.38 Ma, which was employed and/or crosscut by Late Cretaceous and Oligocene fluids. Along the Contact Structure Late Cretaceous molybdenite is spatially associated with Oligocene minerals in the same vein system, a feature that precludes molybdenite recrystallization or reprecipitation by Oligocene ore fluids.
Ore precipitation in porphyry copper systems is generally characterized by metal zoning (Cu-Mo to Zn-Pb-Ag), which is suggested to be variably related to solubility decreases during fluid cooling, fluid-rock interactions, partitioning during fluid phase separation and mixing with external fluids. The numerical modeling study setup in a generic porphyry Cu-environment presents new advances of a numerical process model by considering published constraints on the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility of Cu, Pb and Zn in the ore fluid. This study investigates the roles of vapor-brine separation, halite saturation, initial metal contents, fluid mixing, and remobilization as first-order controls of the physical hydrology on ore formation. The results show that the magmatic vapor and brine phases ascend with different residence times but as miscible fluid mixtures, with salinity increases generating metal-undersaturated bulk fluids. The release rates of magmatic fluids affect the location of the thermohaline fronts, leading to contrasting mechanisms for ore precipitation: higher rates result in halite saturation without significant metal zoning, lower rates produce zoned ore shells due to mixing with meteoric water. Varying metal contents can affect the order of the final metal precipitation sequence. Redissolution of precipitated metals results in zoned ore shell patterns in more peripheral locations and also decouples halite saturation from ore precipitation.
The epithermal Pirquitas Sn-Ag-Pb-Zn mine in NW Argentina is hosted in a domain of metamorphosed sediments without geological evidence for volcanic activity within a distance of about 10 km from the deposit. However, recent geochemical studies of ore-stage fluid inclusions indicate a significant contribution of magmatic volatiles. This study tested different formation models by applying an existing numerical process model for porphyry-epithermal systems with a magmatic intrusion located either at a distance of about 10 km underneath the nearest active volcano or hidden underneath the deposit. The results show that the migration of the ore fluid over a 10-km distance results in metal precipitation by cooling before the deposit site is reached. In contrast, simulations with a hidden magmatic intrusion beneath the Pirquitas deposit are in line with field observations, which include mineralized hydrothermal breccias in the deposit area.
Volcanoes are one of the Earth’s most dynamic zones and responsible for many changes in our planet. Volcano seismology aims to provide an understanding of the physical processes in volcanic systems and anticipate the style and timing of eruptions by analyzing the seismic records. Volcanic tremor signals are usually observed in the seismic records before or during volcanic eruptions. Their analysis contributes to evaluate the evolving volcanic activity and potentially predict eruptions. Years of continuous seismic monitoring now provide useful information for operational eruption forecasting. The continuously growing amount of seismic recordings, however, poses a challenge for analysis, information extraction, and interpretation, to support timely decision making during volcanic crises. Furthermore, the complexity of eruption processes and precursory activities makes the analysis challenging.
A challenge in studying seismic signals of volcanic origin is the coexistence of transient signal swarms and long-lasting volcanic tremor signals. Separating transient events from volcanic tremors can, therefore, contribute to improving our understanding of the underlying physical processes. Some similar issues (data reduction, source separation, extraction, and classification) are addressed in the context of music information retrieval (MIR). The signal characteristics of acoustic and seismic recordings comprise a number of similarities. This thesis is going beyond classical signal analysis techniques usually employed in seismology by exploiting similarities of seismic and acoustic signals and building the information retrieval strategy on the expertise developed in the field of MIR.
First, inspired by the idea of harmonic–percussive separation (HPS) in musical signal processing, I have developed a method to extract harmonic volcanic tremor signals and to detect transient events from seismic recordings. This provides a clean tremor signal suitable for tremor investigation along with a characteristic function suitable for earthquake detection. Second, using HPS algorithms, I have developed a noise reduction technique for seismic signals. This method is especially useful for denoising ocean bottom seismometers, which are highly contaminated by noise. The advantage of this method compared to other denoising techniques is that it doesn’t introduce distortion to the broadband earthquake waveforms, which makes it reliable for different applications in passive seismological analysis. Third, to address the challenge of extracting information from high-dimensional data and investigating the complex eruptive phases, I have developed an advanced machine learning model that results in a comprehensive signal processing scheme for volcanic tremors. Using this method seismic signatures of major eruptive phases can be automatically detected. This helps to provide a chronology of the volcanic system. Also, this model is capable to detect weak precursory volcanic tremors prior to the eruption, which could be used as an indicator of imminent eruptive activity. The extracted patterns of seismicity and their temporal variations finally provide an explanation for the transition mechanism between eruptive phases.
Continental rifts are key geodynamic regions where the complex interplay of magmatism and faulting activity can be studied to understand the driving forces of extension and the formation of new divergent plate boundaries. Well-preserved rift morphology can provide a wealth of information on the growth, interaction, and linkage of normal-fault systems through time. If rift basins are preserved over longer geologic time periods, sedimentary archives generated during extensional processes may mirror tectonic and climatic influences on erosional and sedimentary processes that have varied over time. Rift basins are furthermore strategic areas for hydrocarbon and geothermal energy exploration, and they play a central role in species dispersal and evolution as well as providing or inhibiting hydrologic connectivity along basins at emerging plate boundaries.
The Cenozoic East African rift system (EARS) is one of the most important continental extension zones, reflecting a range of evolutionary stages from an early rift stage with isolated basins in Malawi to an advanced stage of continental extension in southern Afar. Consequently, the EARS is an ideal natural laboratory that lends itself to the study of different stages in the breakup of a continent. The volcanically and seismically active eastern branch of the EARS is characterized by multiple, laterally offset tectonic and magmatic segments where adjacent extensional basins facilitate crustal extension either across a broad deformation zone or via major transfer faulting. The Broadly Rifted Zone (BRZ) in southern Ethiopia is an integral part of the eastern branch of the EARS; in this region, rift segments of the southern Ethiopian Rift (sMER) and northern Kenyan Rift (nKR) propagate in opposite directions in a region with one of the earliest manifestations of volcanism and extensional tectonism in East Africa. The basin margins of the Chew-Bahir Basin and the Gofa Province, characterized by a semi-arid climate and largely uniform lithology, provide ideal conditions for studying the tectonic and geomorphologic features of this complex kinematic transfer zone, but more importantly, this area is suitable for characterizing and quantifying the overlap between the propagating structures of the sMER and nKR and the resulting deformation patterns of the BRZ transfer zones.
In this study, I have combined data from thermochronology, thermal modeling, morphometry, paleomagnetic analysis, geochronology, and geomorphological field observations with information from published studies to reconstruct the spatiotemporal relationship between volcanism and fault activity in the BRZ and quantify the deformation patterns of the overlapping rift segments. I present the following results: (1) new thermochronological data from the en-échelon basin margins and footwall blocks of the rift flanks and morphometric results verified in the field to link different phases of magmatism and faulting during extension and infer geomorphological landscape features related to the current tectonic interaction between the nKR and the sMER; (2) temporally constrained paleomagnetic data from the BRZ overlap zone between the Ethiopian and Kenyan rifts to quantitatively determine block rotation between the two segments. Combining the collected data, time-temperature histories of thermal modeling results from representative samples show well-defined deformation phases between 25–20 Ma, 15–9Ma, and ~5 Ma to the present. Each deformation phase is characterized by the onset of rapid cooling (>2°C/Ma) of the crust associated with uplift or exhumation of the rift shoulder. After an initial, spatially very diffuse phase of extension, the rift has gradually evolved into a system of connected structures formed in an increasingly focused rift zone during the last 5 Ma. Regarding the morphometric analysis of the rift structures, it can be shown that normalized slope indices of the river courses, spatial arrangement of knickpoints in the river longitudinal profiles of the footwall blocks, local relief values, and the average maximum values of the slope of the river profiles indicate a gradual increase in the extension rate from north (Sawula basin: mature) to south (Chew Bahir: young). The complexity of the structural evolution of the BRZ overlap zone between nKR and sMER is further emphasized by the documentation of crustal blocks around a vertical axis. A comparison of the mean directions obtained for the Eo-Oligocene (Ds=352.6°, Is=-17.0°, N=18, α95=5.5°) and Miocene (Ds=2.9°, Is=0.9°, N=9, α95=12.4°) volcanics relative to the pole for stable South Africa and with respect to the corresponding ages of the analyzed units record a significant counterclockwise rotation of ~11.1°± 6.4° and insignificant CCW rotation of ~3.2° ± 11.5°, respectively.
The Andes reflect Cenozoic deformation and uplift along the South American margin in the context of regional shortening associated with the interaction between the subducting Nazca plate and the overriding continental South American plate. Simultaneously, multiple levels of uplifted marine terraces constitute laterally continuous geomorphic features related to the accumulation of permanent forearc deformation in the coastal realm. However, the mechanisms responsible for permanent coastal uplift and the persistency of current/decadal deformation patterns over millennial timescales are still not fully understood. This dissertation presents a continental-scale database of last interglacial terrace elevations and uplift rates along the South American coast that provides the basis for an analysis of a variety of mechanisms that are possibly responsible for the accumulation of permanent coastal uplift. Regional-scale mapping and analysis of multiple, late Pleistocene terrace levels in central Chile furthermore provide valuable insights regarding the persistency of current seismic asperities, the role of upper-plate faulting, and the impact of bathymetric ridges on permanent forearc deformation.
The database of last interglacial terrace elevations reveals an almost continuous signal of background-uplift rates along the South American coast at ~0.22 mm/yr that is modified by various short- to long-wavelength changes. Spatial correlations with crustal faults and subducted bathymetric ridges suggest long-term deformation to be affected by these features, while the latitudinal variability of climate forcing factors has a profound impact on the generation and preservation of marine terraces. Systematic wavelength analyses and comparisons of the terrace-uplift rate signal with different tectonic parameters reveal short-wavelength deformation to result from crustal faulting, while intermediate- to long-wavelength deformation might indicate various extents of long-term seismotectonic segments on the megathrust, which are at least partially controlled by the subduction of bathymetric anomalies. The observed signal of background-uplift rate is likely accumulated by moderate earthquakes near the Moho, suggesting multiple, spatiotemporally distinct phases of uplift that manifest as a continuous uplift signal over millennial timescales.
Various levels of late Pleistocene marine terraces in the 2015 M8.3 Illapel-earthquake area reveal a range of uplift rates between 0.1 and 0.6 mm/yr and indicate decreasing uplift rates since ~400 ka. These glacial-cycle uplift rates do not correlate with current or decadal estimates of coastal deformation suggesting seismic asperities not to be persistent features on the megathrust that control the accumulation of permanent forearc deformation over long timescales of 105 years. Trench-parallel, crustal normal faults modulate the characteristics of permanent forearc-deformation; upper-plate extension likely represents a second-order phenomenon resulting from subduction erosion and subsequent underplating that lead to regional tectonic uplift and local gravitational collapse of the forearc. In addition, variable activity with respect to the subduction of the Juan Fernández Ridge can be detected in the upper plate over the course of multiple interglacial periods, emphasizing the role of bathymetric anomalies in causing local increases in terrace-uplift rate. This thesis therefore provides new insights into the current understanding of subduction-zone processes and the dynamics of coastal forearc deformation, whose different interacting forcing factors impact the topographic and geomorphic evolution of the western South American coast.
Extreme flooding displaces an average of 12 million people every year. Marginalized populations in low-income countries are in particular at high risk, but also industrialized countries are susceptible to displacement and its inherent societal impacts. The risk of being displaced results from a complex interaction of flood hazard, population exposed in the floodplains, and socio-economic vulnerability. Ongoing global warming changes the intensity, frequency, and duration of flood hazards, undermining existing protection measures. Meanwhile, settlements in attractive yet hazardous flood-prone areas have led to a higher degree of population exposure. Finally, the vulnerability to displacement is altered by demographic and social change, shifting economic power, urbanization, and technological development. These risk components have been investigated intensively in the context of loss of life and economic damage, however, only little is known about the risk of displacement under global change.
This thesis aims to improve our understanding of flood-induced displacement risk under global climate change and socio-economic change. This objective is tackled by addressing the following three research questions. First, by focusing on the choice of input data, how well can a global flood modeling chain reproduce flood hazards of historic events that lead to displacement? Second, what are the socio-economic characteristics that shape the vulnerability to displacement? Finally, to what degree has climate change potentially contributed to recent flood-induced displacement events?
To answer the first question, a global flood modeling chain is evaluated by comparing simulated flood extent with satellite-derived inundation information for eight major flood events. A focus is set on the sensitivity to different combinations of the underlying climate reanalysis datasets and global hydrological models which serve as an input for the global hydraulic model. An evaluation scheme of performance scores shows that simulated flood extent is mostly overestimated without the consideration of flood protection and only for a few events dependent on the choice of global hydrological models. Results are more sensitive to the underlying climate forcing, with two datasets differing substantially from a third one. In contrast, the incorporation of flood protection standards results in an underestimation of flood extent, pointing to potential deficiencies in the protection level estimates or the flood frequency distribution within the modeling chain.
Following the analysis of a physical flood hazard model, the socio-economic drivers of vulnerability to displacement are investigated in the next step. For this purpose, a satellite- based, global collection of flood footprints is linked with two disaster inventories to match societal impacts with the corresponding flood hazard. For each event the number of affected population, assets, and critical infrastructure, as well as socio-economic indicators are computed. The resulting datasets are made publicly available and contain 335 displacement events and 695 mortality/damage events. Based on this new data product, event-specific displacement vulnerabilities are determined and multiple (national) dependencies with the socio-economic predictors are derived. The results suggest that economic prosperity only partially shapes vulnerability to displacement; urbanization, infant mortality rate, the share of elderly, population density and critical infrastructure exhibit a stronger functional relationship, suggesting that higher levels of development are generally associated with lower vulnerability.
Besides examining the contextual drivers of vulnerability, the role of climate change in the context of human displacement is also being explored. An impact attribution approach is applied on the example of Cyclone Idai and associated extreme coastal flooding in Mozambique. A combination of coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery is used to construct factual and counterfactual flood events. This storyline-type attribution method allows investigating the isolated or combined effects of sea level rise and the intensification of cyclone wind speeds on coastal flooding. The results suggest that displacement risk has increased by 3.1 to 3.5% due to the total effects of climate change on coastal flooding, with the effects of increasing wind speed being the dominant factor.
In conclusion, this thesis highlights the potentials and challenges of modeling flood- induced displacement risk. While this work explores the sensitivity of global flood modeling to the choice of input data, new questions arise on how to effectively improve the reproduction of flood return periods and the representation of protection levels. It is also demonstrated that disentangling displacement vulnerabilities is feasible, with the results providing useful information for risk assessments, effective humanitarian aid, and disaster relief. The impact attribution study is a first step in assessing the effects of global warming on displacement risk, leading to new research challenges, e.g., coupling fluvial and coastal flood models or the attribution of other hazard types and displacement events. This thesis is one of the first to address flood-induced displacement risk from a global perspective. The findings motivate for further development of the global flood modeling chain to improve our understanding of displacement vulnerability and the effects of global warming.
Evaluation of nitrogen dynamics in high-order streams and rivers based on high-frequency monitoring
(2023)
Nutrient storage, transform and transport are important processes for achieving environmental and ecological health, as well as conducting water management plans. Nitrogen is one of the most noticeable elements due to its impacts on tremendous consequences of eutrophication in aquatic systems. Among all nitrogen components, researches on nitrate are blooming because of widespread deployments of in-situ high-frequency sensors. Monitoring and studying nitrate can become a paradigm for any other reactive substances that may damage environmental conditions and cause economic losses.
Identifying nitrate storage and its transport within a catchment are inspiring to the management of agricultural activities and municipal planning. Storm events are periods when hydrological dynamics activate the exchange between nitrate storage and flow pathways. In this dissertation, long-term high-frequency monitoring data at three gauging stations in the Selke river were used to quantify event-scale nitrate concentration-discharge (C-Q) hysteretic relationships. The Selke catchment is characterized into three nested subcatchments by heterogeneous physiographic conditions and land use. With quantified hysteresis indices, impacts of seasonality and landscape gradients on C-Q relationships are explored. For example, arable area has deep nitrate legacy and can be activated with high intensity precipitation during wetting/wet periods (i.e., the strong hydrological connectivity). Hence, specific shapes of C-Q relationships in river networks can identify targeted locations and periods for agricultural management actions within the catchment to decrease nitrate output into downstream aquatic systems like the ocean.
The capacity of streams for removing nitrate is of both scientific and social interest, which makes the quantification motivated. Although measurements of nitrate dynamics are advanced compared to other substances, the methodology to directly quantify nitrate uptake pathways is still limited spatiotemporally. The major problem is the complex convolution of hydrological and biogeochemical processes, which limits in-situ measurements (e.g., isotope addition) usually to small streams with steady flow conditions. This makes the extrapolation of nitrate dynamics to large streams highly uncertain. Hence, understanding of in-stream nitrate dynamic in large rivers is still necessary. High-frequency monitoring of nitrate mass balance between upstream and downstream measurement sites can quantitatively disentangle multi-path nitrate uptake dynamics at the reach scale (3-8 km). In this dissertation, we conducted this approach in large stream reaches with varying hydro-morphological and environmental conditions for several periods, confirming its success in disentangling nitrate uptake pathways and their temporal dynamics. Net nitrate uptake, autotrophic assimilation and heterotrophic uptake were disentangled, as well as their various diel and seasonal patterns. Natural streams generally can remove more nitrate under similar environmental conditions and heterotrophic uptake becomes dominant during post-wet seasons. Such two-station monitoring provided novel insights into reach-scale nitrate uptake processes in large streams.
Long-term in-stream nitrate dynamics can also be evaluated with the application of water quality model. This is among the first time to use a data-model fusion approach to upscale the two-station methodology in large-streams with complex flow dynamics under long-term high-frequency monitoring, assessing the in-stream nitrate retention and its responses to drought disturbances from seasonal to sub-daily scale. Nitrate retention (both net uptake and net release) exhibited substantial seasonality, which also differed in the investigated normal and drought years. In the normal years, winter and early spring seasons exhibited extensive net releases, then general net uptake occurred after the annual high-flow season at later spring and early summer with autotrophic processes dominating and during later summer-autumn low-flow periods with heterotrophy-characteristics predominating. Net nitrate release occurred since late autumn until the next early spring. In the drought years, the late-autumn net releases were not so consistently persisted as in the normal years and the predominance of autotrophic processes occurred across seasons. Aforementioned comprehensive results of nitrate dynamics on stream scale facilitate the understanding of instream processes, as well as raise the importance of scientific monitoring schemes for hydrology and water quality parameters.
Extreme weather and climate events are one of the greatest dangers for present-day society. Therefore, it is important to provide reliable statements on what changes in extreme events can be expected along with future global climate change. However, the projected overall response to future climate change is generally a result of a complex interplay between individual physical mechanisms originated within the different climate subsystems. Hence, a profound understanding of these individual contributions is required in order to provide meaningful assessments of future changes in extreme events. One aspect of climate change is the recently observed phenomenon of Arctic Amplification and the related dramatic Arctic sea ice decline, which is expected to continue over the next decades. The question to what extent Arctic sea ice loss is able to affect atmospheric dynamics and extreme events over mid-latitudes has received a lot of attention over recent years and still remains a highly debated topic.
In this respect, the objective of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding on the impact of future Arctic sea ice retreat on European temperature extremes and large-scale atmospheric dynamics.
The outcomes are based on model data from the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. Two different sea ice sensitivity simulations from the Polar Amplification Intercomparison Project are employed and contrasted to a present day reference experiment: one experiment with prescribed future sea ice loss over the entire Arctic, as well as another one with sea ice reductions only locally prescribed over the Barents-Kara Sea.% prescribed over the entire Arctic, as well as only locally over the Barent/Karasea with a present day reference experiment.
The first part of the thesis focuses on how future Arctic sea ice reductions affect large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Northern Hemisphere in terms of occurrence frequency changes of five preferred Euro-Atlantic circulation regimes. When compared to circulation regimes computed from ERA5 it shows that ECHAM6 is able to realistically simulate the regime structures. Both ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments exhibit similar regime frequency changes. Consistent with tendencies found in ERA5, a more frequent occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking pattern in midwinter is for instance detected under future sea ice conditions in the sensitivity experiments. Changes in occurrence frequencies of circulation regimes in summer season are however barely detected.
After identifying suitable regime storylines for the occurrence of European temperature extremes in winter, the previously detected regime frequency changes are used to quantify dynamically and thermodynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes in European winter temperature extremes.
It is for instance shown how the preferred occurrence of a Scandinavian blocking regime under low sea ice conditions dynamically contributes to more frequent midwinter cold extreme occurrences over Central Europe. In addition, a reduced occurrence frequency of a Atlantic trough regime is linked to reduced winter warm extremes over Mid-Europe. Furthermore, it is demonstrated how the overall thermodynamical warming effect due to sea ice loss can result in less (more) frequent winter cold (warm) extremes, and consequently counteracts the dynamically induced changes.
Compared to winter season, circulation regimes in summer are less suitable as storylines for the occurrence of summer heat extremes.
Therefore, an approach based on circulation analogues is employed in order to quantify thermodyamically and dynamically driven contributions to sea ice-induced changes of summer heat extremes over three different European sectors. Reduced occurrences of blockings over Western Russia are detected in the ECHAM6 sea ice sensitivity experiments; however, arguing for dynamically and thermodynamically induced contributions to changes in summer heat extremes remains rather challenging.
During the Cenozoic, global cooling and uplift of the Tian Shan, Pamir, and Tibetan plateau modified atmospheric circulation and reduced moisture supply to Central Asia. These changes led to aridification in the region during the Neogene. Afterwards, Quaternary glaciations led to modification of the landscape and runoff.
In the Issyk-Kul basin of the Kyrgyz Tian Shan, the sedimentary sequences reflect the development of the adjacent ranges and local climatic conditions. In this work, I reconstruct the late Miocene – early Pleistocene depositional environment, climate, and lake development in the Issyk-Kul basin using facies analyses and stable δ18O and δ13C isotopic records from sedimentary sections dated by magnetostratigraphy and 26Al/10Be isochron burial dating. Also, I present 10Be-derived millennial-scale modern and paleo-denudation rates from across the Kyrgyz Tian Shan and long-term exhumation rates calculated from published thermochronology data. This allows me to examine spatial and temporal changes in surface processes in the Kyrgyz Tian Shan.
In the Issyk-Kul basin, the style of fluvial deposition changed at ca. 7 Ma, and aridification in the basin commenced concurrently, as shown by magnetostratigraphy and the δ18O and δ13C data. Lake formation commenced on the southern side of the basin at ca. 5 Ma, followed by a ca. 2 Ma local depositional hiatus. 26Al/10Be isochron burial dating and paleocurrent analysis show that the Kungey range to the north of the basin grew eastward, leading to a change from fluvial-alluvial deposits to proximal alluvial fan conglomerates at 5-4 Ma in the easternmost part of the basin. This transition occurred at 2.6-2.8 Ma on the southern side of the basin, synchronously with the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. The paleo-denudation rates from 2.7-2.0 Ma are as low as long-term exhumation rates, and only the millennial-scale denudation rates record an acceleration of denudation.
This work concludes that the growth of the ranges to the north of the basin led to creation of the topographic barrier at ca. 7 Ma and a subsequent aridification in the Issyk-Kul basin. Increased subsidence and local tectonically-induced river system reorganization on the southern side of the basin enabled lake formation at ca. 5 Ma, while growth of the Kungey range blocked westward-draining rivers and led to sediment starvation and lake expansion. Denudational response of the Kyrgyz Tian Shan landscape is delayed due to aridity and only substantial cooling during the late Quaternary glacial cycles led to notable acceleration of denudation. Currently, increased glacier reduction and runoff controls a more rapid denudation of the northern slope of the Terskey range compared to other ranges of the Kyrgyz Tian Shan.
Understanding hydrological processes is of fundamental importance for the Vietnamese national food security and the livelihood of the population in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). As a consequence of sparse data in this region, however, hydrologic processes, such as the controlling processes of precipitation, the interaction between surface and groundwater, and groundwater dynamics, have not been thoroughly studied. The lack of this knowledge may negatively impact the long-term strategic planning for sustainable groundwater resources management and may result in insufficient groundwater recharge and freshwater scarcity. It is essential to develop useful methods for a better understanding of hydrological processes in such data-sparse regions. The goal of this dissertation is to advance methodologies that can improve the understanding of fundamental hydrological processes in the VMD, based on the analyses of stable water isotopes and monitoring data. The thesis mainly focuses on the controlling processes of precipitation, the mechanism of surface–groundwater interaction, and the groundwater dynamics. These processes have not been fully addressed in the VMD so far. The thesis is based on statistical analyses of the isotopic data of Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), of meteorological and hydrological data from Vietnamese agencies, and of the stable water isotopes and monitoring data collected as part of this work.
First, the controlling processes of precipitation were quantified by the combination of trajectory analysis, multi-factor linear regression, and relative importance analysis (hereafter, a model‐based statistical approach). The validity of this approach is confirmed by similar, but mainly qualitative results obtained in other studies. The total variation in precipitation isotopes (δ18O and δ2H) can be better explained by multiple linear regression (up to 80%) than single-factor linear regression (30%). The relative importance analysis indicates that atmospheric moisture regimes control precipitation isotopes rather than local climatic conditions. The most crucial factor is the upstream rainfall along the trajectories of air mass movement. However, the influences of regional and local climatic factors vary in importance over the seasons. The developed model‐based statistical approach is a robust tool for the interpretation of precipitation isotopes and could also be applied to understand the controlling processes of precipitation in other regions.
Second, the concept of the two-component lumped-parameter model (LPM) in conjunction with stable water isotopes was applied to examine the surface–groundwater interaction in the VMD. A calibration framework was also set up to evaluate the behaviour, parameter identifiability, and uncertainties of two-component LPMs. The modelling results provided insights on the subsurface flow conditions, the recharge contributions, and the spatial variation of groundwater transit time. The subsurface flow conditions at the study site can be best represented by the linear-piston flow distribution. The contributions of the recharge sources change with distance to the river. The mean transit time (mTT) of riverbank infiltration increases with the length of the horizontal flow path and the decreasing gradient between river and groundwater. River water infiltrates horizontally mainly via the highly permeable aquifer, resulting in short mTTs (<40 weeks) for locations close to the river (<200 m). The vertical infiltration from precipitation takes place primarily via a low‐permeable overlying aquitard, resulting in considerably longer mTTs (>80 weeks). Notably, the transit time of precipitation infiltration is independent of the distance to the river. All these results are hydrologically plausible and could be quantified by the presented method for the first time. This study indicates that the highly complex mechanism of surface–groundwater interaction at riverbank infiltration systems can be conceptualized by exploiting two‐component LPMs. It is illustrated that the model concept can be used as a tool to investigate the hydrological functioning of mixing processes and the flow path of multiple water components in riverbank infiltration systems.
Lastly, a suite of time series analysis approaches was applied to examine the groundwater dynamics in the VMD. The assessment was focused on the time-variant trends of groundwater levels (GWLs), the groundwater memory effect (representing the time that an aquifer holds water), and the hydraulic response between surface water and multi-layer alluvial aquifers. The analysis indicates that the aquifers act as low-pass filters to reduce the high‐frequency signals in the GWL variations, and limit the recharge to the deep groundwater. The groundwater abstraction has exceeded groundwater recharge between 1997 and 2017, leading to the decline of groundwater levels (0.01-0.55 m/year) in all considered aquifers in the VMD. The memory effect varies according to the geographical location, being shorter in shallow aquifers and flood-prone areas and longer in deep aquifers and coastal regions. Groundwater depth, season, and location primarily control the variation of the response time between the river and alluvial aquifers. These findings are important contributions to the hydrogeological literature of a little-known groundwater system in an alluvial setting. It is suggested that time series analysis can be used as an efficient tool to understand groundwater systems where resources are insufficient to develop a physical-based groundwater model.
This doctoral thesis demonstrates that important aspects of hydrological processes can be understood by statistical analysis of stable water isotope and monitoring data. The approaches developed in this thesis can be easily transferred to regions in similar tropical environments, particularly those in alluvial settings. The results of the thesis can be used as a baseline for future isotope-based studies and contribute to the hydrogeological literature of little-known groundwater systems in the VMD.
The Andean Cordillera is a mountain range located at the western South American margin and is part of the Eastern- Circum-Pacific orogenic Belt. The ~7000 km long mountain range is one of the longest on Earth and hosts the second largest orogenic plateau in the world, the Altiplano-Puna plateau. The Andes are known as a non-collisional subduction-type orogen which developed as a result of the interaction between the subducted oceanic Nazca plate and the South American continental plate. The different Andean segments exhibit along-strike variations of morphotectonic provinces characterized by different elevations, volcanic activity, deformation styles, crustal thickness, shortening magnitude and oceanic plate geometry. Most of the present-day elevation can be explained by crustal shortening in the last ~50 Ma, with the shortening magnitude decreasing from ~300 km in the central (15°S-30°S) segment to less than half that in the southern part (30°S-40°S). Several factors were proposed that might control the magnitude and acceleration of shortening of the Central Andes in the last 15 Ma. One important factor is likely the slab geometry. At 27-33°S, the slab dips horizontally at ~100 km depth due to the subduction of the buoyant Juan Fernandez Ridge, forming the Pampean flat-slab. This horizontal subduction is thought to influence the thermo-mechanical state of the Sierras Pampeanas foreland, for instance, by strengthening the lithosphere and promoting the thick-skinned propagation of deformation to the east, resulting in the uplift of the Sierras Pampeanas basement blocks. The flat-slab has migrated southwards from the Altiplano latitude at ~30 Ma to its present-day position and the processes and consequences associated to its passage on the contemporaneous acceleration of the shortening rate in Central Andes remain unclear. Although the passage of the flat-slab could offer an explanation to the acceleration of the shortening, the timing does not explain the two pulses of shortening at about 15 Ma and 4 Ma that are suggested from geological observations. I hypothesize that deformation in the Central Andes is controlled by a complex interaction between the subduction dynamics of the Nazca plate and the dynamic strengthening and weakening of the South American plate due to several upper plate processes. To test this hypothesis, a detailed investigation into the role of the flat-slab, the structural inheritance of the continental plate, and the subduction dynamics in the Andes is needed. Therefore, I have built two classes of numerical thermo-mechanical models: (i) The first class of models are a series of generic E-W-oriented high-resolution 2D subduction models thatinclude flat subduction in order to investigate the role of the subduction dynamics on the temporal variability of the shortening rate in the Central Andes at Altiplano latitudes (~21°S). The shortening rate from the models was then validated with the observed tectonic shortening rate in the Central Andes. (ii) The second class of models are a series of 3D data-driven models of the present-day Pampean flat-slab configuration and the Sierras Pampeanas (26-42°S). The models aim to investigate the relative contribution of the present-day flat subduction and inherited structures in the continental lithosphere on the strain localization. Both model classes were built using the advanced finite element geodynamic code ASPECT.
The first main finding of this work is to suggest that the temporal variability of shortening in the Central Andes is primarily controlled by the subduction dynamics of the Nazca plate while it penetrates into the mantle transition zone. These dynamics depends on the westward velocity of the South American plate that provides the main crustal shortening force to the Andes and forces the trench to retreat. When the subducting plate reaches the lower mantle, it buckles on it-self until the forced trench retreat causes the slab to steepen in the upper mantle in contrast with the classical slab-anchoring model. The steepening of the slab hinders the trench causing it to resist the advancing South American plate, resulting in the pulsatile shortening. This buckling and steepening subduction regime could have been initiated because of the overall decrease in the westwards velocity of the South American plate. In addition, the passage of the flat-slab is required to promote the shortening of the continental plate because flat subduction scrapes the mantle lithosphere, thus weakening the continental plate. This process contributes to the efficient shortening when the trench is hindered, followed by mantle lithosphere delamination at ~20 Ma. Finally, the underthrusting of the Brazilian cratonic shield beneath the orogen occurs at ~11 Ma due to the mechanical weakening of the thick sediments covered the shield margin, and due to the decreasing resistance of the weakened lithosphere of the orogen.
The second main finding of this work is to suggest that the cold flat-slab strengthens the overriding continental lithosphere and prevents strain localization. Therefore, the deformation is transmitted to the eastern front of the flat-slab segment by the shear stress operating at the subduction interface, thus the flat-slab acts like an indenter that “bulldozes” the mantle-keel of the continental lithosphere. The offset in the propagation of deformation to the east between the flat and steeper slab segments in the south causes the formation of a transpressive dextral shear zone. Here, inherited faults of past tectonic events are reactivated and further localize the deformation in an en-echelon strike-slip shear zone, through a mechanism that I refer to as “flat-slab conveyor”. Specifically, the shallowing of the flat-slab causes the lateral deformation, which explains the timing of multiple geological events preceding the arrival of the flat-slab at 33°S. These include the onset of the compression and of the transition between thin to thick-skinned deformation styles resulting from the crustal contraction of the crust in the Sierras Pampeanas some 10 and 6 Myr before the Juan Fernandez Ridge collision at that latitude, respectively.
The shallow Earth’s layers are at the interplay of many physical processes: some being driven by atmospheric forcing (precipitation, temperature...) whereas others take their origins at depth, for instance ground shaking due to seismic activity. These forcings cause the subsurface to continuously change its mechanical properties, therefore modulating the strength of the surface geomaterials and hydrological fluxes. Because our societies settle and rely on the layers hosting these time-dependent properties, constraining the hydro-mechanical dynamics of the shallow subsurface is crucial for our future geographical development. One way to investigate the ever-changing physical changes occurring under our feet is through the inference of seismic velocity changes from ambient noise, a technique called seismic interferometry. In this dissertation, I use this method to monitor the evolution of groundwater storage and damage induced by earthquakes. Two research lines are investigated that comprise the key controls of groundwater recharge in steep landscapes and the predictability and duration of the transient physical properties due to earthquake ground shaking. These two types of dynamics modulate each other and influence the velocity changes in ways that are challenging to disentangle. A part of my doctoral research also addresses this interaction. Seismic data from a range of field settings spanning several climatic conditions (wet to arid climate) in various seismic-prone areas are considered. I constrain the obtained seismic velocity time-series using simple physical models, independent dataset, geophysical tools and nonlinear analysis. Additionally, a methodological development is proposed to improve the time-resolution of passive seismic monitoring.
Soil is today considered a non-renewable resource on societal time scale, as the rate of soil loss is higher than the one of soil formation.
Soil formation is complex, can take several thousands of years and is influenced by a variety of factors, one of them is time. Oftentimes, there is the assumption of constant and progressive conditions for soil and/or profile development (i.e., steady-state). In reality, for most of the soils, their (co-)evolution leads to a complex and irregular soil development in time and space characterised by “progressive” and “regressive” phases.
Lateral transport of soil material (i.e., soil erosion) is one of the principal processes shaping the land surface and soil profile during “regressive” phases and one of the major environmental problems the world faces.
Anthropogenic activities like agriculture can exacerbate soil erosion. Thus, it is of vital importance to distinguish short-term soil redistribution rates (i.e., within decades) influenced by human activities differ from long-term natural rates. To do so, soil erosion (and denudation) rates can be determined by using a set of isotope methods that cover different time scales at landscape level.
With the aim to unravel the co-evolution of weathering, soil profile development and lateral redistribution on a landscape level, we used Pluthonium-239+240 (239+240Pu), Beryllium-10 (10Be, in situ and meteoric) and Radiocarbon (14C) to calculate short- and long-term erosion rates in two settings, i.e., a natural and an anthropogenic environment in the hummocky ground moraine landscape of the Uckermark, North-eastern Germany. The main research questions were:
1. How do long-term and short-term rates of soil redistributing processes differ?
2. Are rates calculated from in situ 10Be comparable to those of using meteoric 10Be?
3. How do soil redistribution rates (short- and long-term) in an agricultural and in a natural landscape compare to each other?
4. Are the soil patterns observed in northern Germany purely a result of past events (natural and/or anthropogenic) or are they imbedded in ongoing processes?
Erosion and deposition are reflected in a catena of soil profiles with no or almost no erosion on flat positions (hilltop), strong erosion on the mid-slope and accumulation of soil material at the toeslope position. These three characteristic process domains were chosen within the CarboZALF-D experimental site, characterised by intense anthropogenic activities. Likewise, a hydrosequence in an ancient forest was chosen for this study and being regarded as a catena strongly influenced by natural soil transport.
The following main results were obtained using the above-mentioned range of isotope methods available to measure soil redistribution rates depending on the time scale needed (e.g., 239+240Pu, 10Be, 14C):
1. Short-term erosion rates are one order of magnitude higher than long-term rates in agricultural settings.
2. Both meteoric and in situ 10Be are suitable soil tracers to measure the long-term soil redistribution rates giving similar results in an anthropogenic environment for different landscape positions (e.g., hilltop, mid-slope, toeslope)
3. Short-term rates were extremely low/negligible in a natural landscape and very high in an agricultural landscape – -0.01 t ha-1 yr-1 (average value) and -25 t ha-1 yr-1 respectively. On the contrary, long-term rates in the forested landscape are comparable to those calculated in the agricultural area investigated with average values of -1.00 t ha-1 yr-1 and -0.79 t ha-1 yr-1.
4. Soil patterns observed in the forest might be due to human impact and activities started after the first settlements in the region, earlier than previously postulated, between 4.5 and 6.8 kyr BP, and not a result of recent soil erosion.
5. Furthermore, long-term soil redistribution rates are similar independently from the settings, meaning past natural soil mass redistribution processes still overshadow the present anthropogenic erosion processes.
Overall, this study could make important contributions to the deciphering of the co-evolution of weathering, soil profile development and lateral redistribution in North-eastern Germany. The multi-methodological approach used can be challenged by the application in a wider range of landscapes and geographic regions.
Carbonates carried in subducting slabs may play a major role in sourcing and storing carbon in the deep Earth’s interior. Current estimates indicate that between 40 to 66 million tons of carbon per year enter subduction zones, but it is uncertain how much of it reaches the lower mantle. It appears that most of this carbon might be extracted from subducting slabs at the mantle wedge and only a limited amount continues deeper and eventually reaches the deep mantle. However, estimations on deeply subducted carbon broadly range from 0.0001 to 52 million tons of carbon per year. This disparity is primarily due to the limited understanding of the survival of carbonate minerals during their transport to deep mantle conditions. Indeed, carbon has very low solubility in mantle silicates, therefore it is expected to be stored primarily in accessory phases such as carbonates. Among those carbonates, magnesite (MgCO3), as a single phase, is the most stable under all mantle conditions. However, experimental investigation on the stability of magnesite in contact with SiO2 at lower mantle conditions suggests that magnesite is stable only along a cold subducted slab geotherm. Furthermore, our understanding of magnesite’s stability when interacting with more complex mantle silicate phases remains incomplete. In the first part of this dissertation, laser-heated diamond anvil cells and multi-anvil apparatus experiments were performed to investigate the stability of magnesite in contact with iron-bearing mantle silicates. Sub-solidus reactions, melting, decarbonation and diamond formation were examined from shallow to mid-lower mantle conditions (25 to 68 GPa; 1300 to 2000 K). Multi-anvil experiments at 25 GPa show the formation of carbonate-rich melt, bridgmanite, and stishovite with melting occurring at a temperature corresponding to all geotherms except the coldest one. In situ X-ray diffraction, in laser-heating diamond anvil cells experiments, shows crystallization of bridgmanite and stishovite but no melt phase was detected in situ at high temperatures. To detect decarbonation phases such as diamond, Raman spectroscopy was used. Crystallization of diamonds is observed as a sub-solidus process even at temperatures relevant and lower than the coldest slab geotherm (1350 K at 33 GPa). Data obtained from this work suggest that magnesite is unstable in contact with the surrounding peridotite mantle in the upper-most lower mantle. The presence of magnesite instead induces melting under oxidized conditions and/or foster diamond formation under more reduced conditions, at depths ∼700 km. Consequently, carbonates will be removed from the carbonate-rich slabs at shallow lower mantle conditions, where subducted slabs can stagnate. Therefore, the transport of carbonate to deeper depths will be restricted, supporting the presence of a barrier for carbon subduction at the top of the lower mantle. Moreover, the reduction of magnesite, forming diamonds provides additional evidence that super-deep diamond crystallization is related to the reduction of carbonates or carbonated-rich melt.
The second part of this dissertation presents the development of a portable laser-heating system optimized for X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) or nuclear inelastic scattering (NIS) spectroscopy with signal collection at near 90◦. The laser-heated diamond anvil cell is the only static pressure device that can replicate the pressure and temperatures of the Earth’s lower mantle and core. The high temperatures are reached by using high-powered lasers focused on the sample contained between the diamond anvils. Moreover, diamonds’ transparency to X-rays enables in situ X-ray spectroscopy measurements that can probe the sample under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. Therefore, the development of portable laser-heating systems has linked high-pressure and temperature research with high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy techniques to synchrotron beamlines that do not have a dedicated, permanent, laser-heating system. A general description of the system is provided, as well as details on the use of a parabolic mirror as a reflective imaging objective for on-axis laser heating and radiospectrometric temperature measurements with zero attenuation of incoming X-rays. The parabolic mirror improves the accuracy of temperature measurements free from chromatic aberrations in a wide spectral range and its perforation permits in situ X-rays measurement at synchrotron facilities. The parabolic mirror is a well-suited alternative to refractive objectives in laser heating systems, which will facilitate future applications in the use of CO2 lasers.
In Forschungsprogrammen werden zahlreiche Akteure mit unterschiedlichen Hintergründen und fachlichen Expertisen in Einzel- oder Verbundvorhaben vereint, die jedoch weitestgehend unabhängig voneinander durchgeführt werden. Vor dem Hintergrund, dass gesamtgesellschaftliche Herausforderungen wie die globale Erwärmung zunehmend disziplinübergreifende Lösungsansätze erfordern, sollten Vernetzungs- und Transferprozesse in Forschungsprogrammen stärker in den Fokus rücken. Mit der Implementierung einer Begleitforschung kann dieser Forderung Rechnung getragen werden. Begleitforschung unterscheidet sich in ihrer Herangehensweise und ihrer Zielvorstellung von den „üblichen“ Projekten und kann in unterschiedlichen theoretischen Reinformen auftreten. Verkürzt dargestellt agiert sie entweder (1) inhaltlich komplementär zu den jeweiligen Forschungsprojekten, (2) auf einer Metaebene mit Fokus auf die Prozesse im Forschungsprogramm oder (3) als integrierende, synthetisierende Instanz, für die die Vernetzung der Projekte im Forschungsprogramm sowie der Wissenstransfer von Bedeutung sind. Zwar sind diese Formen analytisch in theoretische Reinformen trennbar, in der Praxis ergibt sich in der Regel jedoch ein Mix aus allen dreien.
In diesem Zusammenhang schließt die vorliegende Dissertation als ergänzende Studie an bisherige Ansätze zum methodischen Handwerkszeug der Begleitforschung an und fokussiert auf folgende Fragestellungen: Auf welcher Basis kann die Vernetzung der Akteure in einem Forschungsprogramm durchgeführt werden, um diese effektiv zusammenzubringen? Welche weiteren methodischen Elemente sollten daran ansetzen, um einen Mehrwert zu generieren, der die Summe der Einzelergebnisse des Forschungsprogrammes übersteigt? Von welcher Art kann dann ein solcher Mehrwert sein und welche Rolle spielt dabei die Begleitforschung?
Das erste methodische Element bildet die Erhebung und Aufbereitung einer Ausgangsdatenbasis. Durch eine auf semantischer Analyse basierenden Verschlagwortung projektbezogener Texte lässt sich eine umfassende Datenbasis aus den Inhalten der Forschungsprojekte generieren. Die Schlagwörter werden dabei anhand eines kontrollierten Vokabulars in einem Schlagwortkatalog strukturiert. Parallel dazu werden sie wiederum den jeweiligen Projekten zugeordnet, wodurch diese thematische Merkmale erhalten. Um thematische Überschneidungen zwischen Forschungsprojekten sichtbar und interpretierbar zu machen, beinhaltet das zweite Element Ansätze zur Visualisierung. Dazu werden die Informationen in einen Netzwerkgraphen transferiert, der sowohl alle im Forschungsprogramm involvierten Projekte als auch die identifizierten Schlagwörter in Relation zueinander abbilden kann. So kann zum Beispiel sichtbar gemacht werden, welche Forschungsprojekte sich auf Basis ihrer Inhalte „näher“ sind als andere. Genau diese Information wird im dritten methodischen Element als Planungsgrundlage für unterschiedliche Veranstaltungsformate wie Arbeitstagungen oder Transferwerkstätten genutzt. Das vierte methodische Element umfasst die Synthesebildung. Diese gestaltet sich als Prozess über den gesamten Zeitraum der Zusammenarbeit zwischen Begleitforschung und den weiteren Forschungsprojekten hinweg, da in die Synthese unter anderem Zwischen-, Teil- und Endergebnisse der Projekte einfließen, genauso wie Inhalte aus den unterschiedlichen Veranstaltungen. Letztendlich ist dieses vierte Element auch das Mittel, um aus den integrierten und synthetisierten Informationen Handlungsempfehlungen für zukünftige Vorhaben abzuleiten.
Die Erarbeitung der methodischen Elemente erfolgte im laufenden Prozess des Begleitforschungsprojektes KlimAgrar, welches der vorliegenden Dissertation als Fallbeispiel dient und dessen Hintergründe in der Thematik Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung in der Landwirtschaft im Text ausführlich erläutert werden.
Natural gas hydrates are ice-like crystalline compounds containing water cavities that trap natural gas molecules like methane (CH4), which is a potent greenhouse gas with high energy density. The Mallik site at the Mackenzie Delta in the Canadian Arctic contains a large volume of technically recoverable CH4 hydrate beneath the base of the permafrost. Understanding how the sub-permafrost hydrate is distributed can aid in searching for the ideal locations for deploying CH4 production wells to develop the hydrate as a cleaner alternative to crude oil or coal. Globally, atmospheric warming driving permafrost thaw results in sub-permafrost hydrate dissociation, releasing CH4 into the atmosphere to intensify global warming. It is therefore crucial to evaluate the potential risk of hydrate dissociation due to permafrost degradation. To quantitatively predict hydrate distribution and volume in complex sub-permafrost environments, a numerical framework was developed to simulate sub-permafrost hydrate formation by coupling the equilibrium CH4-hydrate formation approach with a fluid flow and transport simulator (TRANSPORTSE). In addition, integrating the equations of state describing ice melting and forming with TRANSPORTSE enabled this framework to simulate the permafrost evolution during the sub-permafrost hydrate formation. A modified sub-permafrost hydrate formation mechanism for the Mallik site is presented in this study. According to this mechanism, the CH4-rich fluids have been vertically transported since the Late Pleistocene from deep overpressurized zones via geologic fault networks to form the observed hydrate deposits in the Kugmallit–Mackenzie Bay Sequences. The established numerical framework was verified by a benchmark of hydrate formation via dissolved methane. Model calibration was performed based on laboratory data measured during a multi-stage hydrate formation experiment undertaken in the LArge scale Reservoir Simulator (LARS). As the temporal and spatial evolution of simulated and observed hydrate saturation matched well, the LARS model was therefore validated. This laboratory-scale model was then upscaled to a field-scale 2D model generated from a seismic transect across the Mallik site. The simulation confirmed the feasibility of the introduced sub-permafrost hydrate formation mechanism by demonstrating consistency with field observations. The 2D model was extended to the first 3D model of the Mallik site by using well-logs and seismic profiles, to investigate the geologic controls on the spatial hydrate distribution. An assessment of this simulation revealed the hydraulic contribution of each geological element, including relevant fault networks and sedimentary sequences. Based on the simulation results, the observed heterogeneous distribution of sub-permafrost hydrate resulted from the combined factors of the source-gas generation rate, subsurface temperature, and the permeability of geologic elements. Analysis of the results revealed that the Mallik permafrost was heated by 0.8–1.3 °C, induced by the global temperature increase of 0.44 °C and accelerated by Arctic amplification from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s. This study presents a numerical framework that can be applied to study the formation of the permafrost-hydrate system from laboratory to field scales, across timescales ranging from hours to millions of years. Overall, these simulations deepen the knowledge about the dominant factors controlling the spatial hydrate distribution in sub-permafrost environments with heterogeneous geologic elements. The framework can support improving the design of hydrate formation experiments and provide valuable contributions to future industrial hydrate exploration and exploitation activities.
The East African Rift System (EARS) is a significant example of active tectonics, which provides opportunities to examine the stages of continental faulting and landscape evolution. The southwest extension of the EARS is one of the most significant examples of active tectonics nowadays, however, seismotectonic research in the area has been scarce, despite the fundamental importance of neotectonics. Our first study area is located between the Northern Province of Zambia and the southeastern Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lakes Mweru and Mweru Wantipa are part of the southwest extension of the EARS. Fault analysis reveals that, since the Miocene, movements along the active Mweru-Mweru Wantipa Fault System (MMFS) have been largely responsible for the reorganization of the landscape and the drainage patterns across the southwestern branch of the EARS. To investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of fluvial-lacustrine landscape development, we determined in-situ cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al in a total of twenty-six quartzitic bedrock samples that were collected from knickpoints across the Mporokoso Plateau (south of Lake Mweru) and the eastern part of the Kundelungu Plateau (north of Lake Mweru). Samples from the Mporokoso Plateau and close to the MMFS provide evidence of temporary burial. By contrast, surfaces located far from the MMFS appear to have remained uncovered since their initial exposure as they show consistent 10Be and 26Al exposure ages ranging up to ~830 ka. Reconciliation of the observed burial patterns with morphotectonic and stratigraphic analysis reveals the existence of an extensive paleo-lake during the Pleistocene. Through hypsometric analyses of the dated knickpoints, the potential maximum water level of the paleo-lake is constrained to ~1200 m asl (present lake lavel: 917 m asl). High denudation rates (up to ~40 mm ka-1) along the eastern Kundelungu Plateau suggest that footwall uplift, resulting from normal faulting, caused river incision, possibly controlling paleo-lake drainage. The lake level was reduced gradually reaching its current level at ~350 ka.
Parallel to the MMFS in the north, the Upemba Fault System (UFS) extends across the southeastern Katanga Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo. This part of our research is focused on the geomorphological behavior of the Kiubo Waterfalls. The waterfalls are the currently active knickpoint of the Lufira River, which flows into the Upemba Depression. Eleven bedrock samples along the Lufira River and its tributary stream, Luvilombo River, were collected. In-situ cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al were used in order to constrain the K constant of the Stream Power Law equation. Constraining the K constant allowed us to calculate the knickpoint retreat rate of the Kiubo Waterfalls at ~0.096 m a-1. Combining the calculated retreat rate of the knickpoint with DNA sequencing from fish populations, we managed to present extrapolation models and estimate the location of the onset of the Kiubo Waterfalls, revealing its connection to the seismicity of the UFS.
Air pollution has been a persistent global problem in the past several hundred years. While some industrialized nations have shown improvements in their air quality through stricter regulation, others have experienced declines as they rapidly industrialize. The WHO’s 2021 update of their recommended air pollution limit values reflects the substantial impacts on human health of pollutants such as NO2 and O3, as recent epidemiological evidence suggests substantial long-term health impacts of air pollution even at low concentrations. Alongside developments in our understanding of air pollution's health impacts, the new technology of low-cost sensors (LCS) has been taken up by both academia and industry as a new method for measuring air pollution. Due primarily to their lower cost and smaller size, they can be used in a variety of different applications, including in the development of higher resolution measurement networks, in source identification, and in measurements of air pollution exposure. While significant efforts have been made to accurately calibrate LCS with reference instrumentation and various statistical models, accuracy and precision remain limited by variable sensor sensitivity. Furthermore, standard procedures for calibration still do not exist and most proprietary calibration algorithms are black-box, inaccessible to the public. This work seeks to expand the knowledge base on LCS in several different ways: 1) by developing an open-source calibration methodology; 2) by deploying LCS at high spatial resolution in urban environments to test their capability in measuring microscale changes in urban air pollution; 3) by connecting LCS deployments with the implementation of local mobility policies to provide policy advice on resultant changes in air quality.
In a first step, it was found that LCS can be consistently calibrated with good performance against reference instrumentation using seven general steps: 1) assessing raw data distribution, 2) cleaning data, 3) flagging data, 4) model selection and tuning, 5) model validation, 6) exporting final predictions, and 7) calculating associated uncertainty. By emphasizing the need for consistent reporting of details at each step, most crucially on model selection, validation, and performance, this work pushed forward with the effort towards standardization of calibration methodologies. In addition, with the open-source publication of code and data for the seven-step methodology, advances were made towards reforming the largely black-box nature of LCS calibrations.
With a transparent and reliable calibration methodology established, LCS were then deployed in various street canyons between 2017 and 2020. Using two types of LCS, metal oxide (MOS) and electrochemical (EC), their performance in capturing expected patterns of urban NO2 and O3 pollution was evaluated. Results showed that calibrated concentrations from MOS and EC sensors matched general diurnal patterns in NO2 and O3 pollution measured using reference instruments. While MOS proved to be unreliable for discerning differences among measured locations within the urban environment, the concentrations measured with calibrated EC sensors matched expectations from modelling studies on NO2 and O3 pollution distribution in street canyons. As such, it was concluded that LCS are appropriate for measuring urban air quality, including for assisting urban-scale air pollution model development, and can reveal new insights into air pollution in urban environments.
To achieve the last goal of this work, two measurement campaigns were conducted in connection with the implementation of three mobility policies in Berlin. The first involved the construction of a pop-up bike lane on Kottbusser Damm in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the second surrounded the temporary implementation of a community space on Böckhstrasse, and the last was focused on the closure of a portion of Friedrichstrasse to all motorized traffic. In all cases, measurements of NO2 were collected before and after the measure was implemented to assess changes in air quality resultant from these policies. Results from the Kottbusser Damm experiment showed that the bike-lane reduced NO2 concentrations that cyclists were exposed to by 22 ± 19%. On Friedrichstrasse, the street closure reduced NO2 concentrations to the level of the urban background without worsening the air quality on side streets. These valuable results were communicated swiftly to partners in the city administration responsible for evaluating the policies’ success and future, highlighting the ability of LCS to provide policy-relevant results.
As a new technology, much is still to be learned about LCS and their value to academic research in the atmospheric sciences. Nevertheless, this work has advanced the state of the art in several ways. First, it contributed a novel open-source calibration methodology that can be used by a LCS end-users for various air pollutants. Second, it strengthened the evidence base on the reliability of LCS for measuring urban air quality, finding through novel deployments in street canyons that LCS can be used at high spatial resolution to understand microscale air pollution dynamics. Last, it is the first of its kind to connect LCS measurements directly with mobility policies to understand their influences on local air quality, resulting in policy-relevant findings valuable for decisionmakers. It serves as an example of the potential for LCS to expand our understanding of air pollution at various scales, as well as their ability to serve as valuable tools in transdisciplinary research.
Rainfall-triggered landslides are a globally occurring hazard that cause several thousand fatalities per year on average and lead to economic damages by destroying buildings and infrastructure and blocking transportation networks. For people living and governing in susceptible areas, knowing not only where, but also when landslides are most probable is key to inform strategies to reduce risk, requiring reliable assessments of weather-related landslide hazard and adequate warning. Taking proper action during high hazard periods, such as moving to higher levels of houses, closing roads and rail networks, and evacuating neighborhoods, can save lives. Nevertheless, many regions of the world with high landslide risk currently lack dedicated, operational landslide early warning systems.
The mounting availability of temporal landslide inventory data in some regions has increasingly enabled data-driven approaches to estimate landslide hazard on the basis of rainfall conditions. In other areas, however, such data remains scarce, calling for appropriate statistical methods to estimate hazard with limited data. The overarching motivation for this dissertation is to further our ability to predict rainfall-triggered landslides in time in order to expand and improve warning. To this end, I applied Bayesian inference to probabilistically quantify and predict landslide activity as a function of rainfall conditions at spatial scales ranging from a small coastal town, to metropolitan areas worldwide, to a multi-state region, and temporal scales from hourly to seasonal. This thesis is composed of three studies.
In the first study, I contributed to developing and validating statistical models for an online landslide warning dashboard for the small town of Sitka, Alaska, USA. We used logistic and Poisson regressions to estimate daily landslide probability and counts from an inventory of only five reported landslide events and 18 years of hourly precipitation measurements at the Sitka airport. Drawing on community input, we established two warning thresholds for implementation in the dashboard, which uses observed rainfall and US National Weather Service forecasts to provide real-time estimates of landslide hazard.
In the second study, I estimated rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for shallow landsliding for 26 cities worldwide and a global threshold for urban landslides. I found that landslides in urban areas occurred at rainfall intensities that were lower than previously reported global thresholds, and that 31% of urban landslides were triggered during moderate rainfall events. However, landslides in cities with widely varying climates and topographies were triggered above similar critical rainfall intensities: thresholds for 77% of cities were indistinguishable from the global threshold, suggesting that urbanization may harmonize thresholds between cities, overprinting natural variability. I provide a baseline threshold that could be considered for warning in cities with limited landslide inventory data.
In the third study, I investigated seasonal landslide response to annual precipitation patterns in the Pacific Northwest region, USA by using Bayesian multi-level models to combine data from five heterogeneous landslide inventories that cover different areas and time periods. I quantitatively confirmed a distinctly seasonal pattern of landsliding and found that peak landslide activity lags the annual precipitation peak. In February, at the height of the landslide season, landslide intensity for a given amount of monthly rainfall is up to ten times higher than at the season onset in November, underlining the importance of antecedent seasonal hillslope conditions.
Together, these studies contributed actionable, objective information for landslide early warning and examples for the application of Bayesian methods to probabilistically quantify landslide hazard from inventory and rainfall data.
The work is designed to investigate the impacts and sensitivity of climate change on water resources, droughts and hydropower production in Malawi, the South-Eastern region which is highly vulnerable to climate change. It is observed that rainfall is decreasing and temperature is increasing which calls for the understanding of what these changes may impact the water resources, drought occurrences and hydropower generation in the region. The study is conducted in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin (Lake Malawi and Shire River Basins) and is divided into three projects. The first study is assessing the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1970-2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evaporation Index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. And later the relationship of the meteorological and hydrological droughts is established.
While the second study extends the drought analysis into the future by examining the potential future meteorological water balance and associated drought characteristics such as the drought intensity (DI), drought months (DM), and drought events (DE) in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin. The sensitivity of drought to changes of rainfall and temperature is also assessed using the scenario-neutral approach. The climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 are used. The study also investigates the effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble in reproducing observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections.
The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed in third study. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Similar to second study, the scenario-neutral approach is also applied to determine the sensitivity of climate change on water resources more particularly Lake Malawi level and Shire River flow which later helps to estimate the hydropower production susceptibility.
Results suggest that meteorological droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a >24-month memory towards meteorological conditions since the 36-months SPEI can predict hydrological droughts ten-months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger hydrological drought to be 474.1 m.a.s.l.
Despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher DI and longer events (DM). DI is projected to increase between +25% and +50% during 2021-2050 and between +131% and +388% during 2071-2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, DE is decreasing. Projected droughts based on RCP8.5 are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on RCP4.5.
It is also found that an annual temperature increase of 1°C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi’s water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (-5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (-0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows on Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5°C (3.5°C) and -20% (-15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021–2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071–2100.
The findings are later linked to global policies more particularly the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)’s Paris Agreement and the United Nations (UN)’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and how the failure to adhere the restriction of temperature increase below the global limit of 1.5°C will affect drought and the water resources in Malawi consequently impact the hydropower production. As a result, the achievement of most of the SDGs will be compromised.
The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change. The information generation is important for decision making more especially supporting the climate action required to fight against climate change. The frequency of extreme climate events due to climate change has reached the climate emergency as saving lives and livelihoods require urgent action.
Casualties and damages from urban pluvial flooding are increasing. Triggered by short, localized, and intensive rainfall events, urban pluvial floods can occur anywhere, even in areas without a history of flooding. Urban pluvial floods have relatively small temporal and spatial scales. Although cumulative losses from urban pluvial floods are comparable, most flood risk management and mitigation strategies focus on fluvial and coastal flooding. Numerical-physical-hydrodynamic models are considered the best tool to represent the complex nature of urban pluvial floods; however, they are computationally expensive and time-consuming. These sophisticated models make large-scale analysis and operational forecasting prohibitive. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate and benchmark the performance of other alternative methods.
The findings of this cumulative thesis are represented in three research articles. The first study evaluates two topographic-based methods to map urban pluvial flooding, fill–spill–merge (FSM) and topographic wetness index (TWI), by comparing them against a sophisticated hydrodynamic model. The FSM method identifies flood-prone areas within topographic depressions while the TWI method employs maximum likelihood estimation to calibrate a TWI threshold (τ) based on inundation maps from the 2D hydrodynamic model. The results point out that the FSM method outperforms the TWI method. The study highlights then the advantage and limitations of both methods.
Data-driven models provide a promising alternative to computationally expensive hydrodynamic models. However, the literature lacks benchmarking studies to evaluate the different models' performance, advantages and limitations. Model transferability in space is a crucial problem. Most studies focus on river flooding, likely due to the relative availability of flow and rain gauge records for training and validation. Furthermore, they consider these models as black boxes. The second study uses a flood inventory for the city of Berlin and 11 predictive features which potentially indicate an increased pluvial flooding hazard to map urban pluvial flood susceptibility using a convolutional neural network (CNN), an artificial neural network (ANN) and the benchmarking machine learning models random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM). I investigate the influence of spatial resolution on the implemented models, the models' transferability in space and the importance of the predictive features. The results show that all models perform well and the RF models are superior to the other models within and outside the training domain. The models developed using fine spatial resolution (2 and 5 m) could better identify flood-prone areas. Finally, the results point out that aspect is the most important predictive feature for the CNN models, and altitude is for the other models.
While flood susceptibility maps identify flood-prone areas, they do not represent flood variables such as velocity and depth which are necessary for effective flood risk management. To address this, the third study investigates data-driven models' transferability to predict urban pluvial floodwater depth and the models' ability to enhance their predictions using transfer learning techniques. It compares the performance of RF (the best-performing model in the previous study) and CNN models using 12 predictive features and output from a hydrodynamic model. The findings in the third study suggest that while CNN models tend to generalise and smooth the target function on the training dataset, RF models suffer from overfitting. Hence, RF models are superior for predictions inside the training domains but fail outside them while CNN models could control the relative loss in performance outside the training domains. Finally, the CNN models benefit more from transfer learning techniques than RF models, boosting their performance outside training domains.
In conclusion, this thesis has evaluated both topographic-based methods and data-driven models to map urban pluvial flooding. However, further studies are crucial to have methods that completely overcome the limitation of 2D hydrodynamic models.
The North Pamir, part of the India-Asia collision zone, essentially formed during the late Paleozoic to late Triassic–early Jurassic. Coeval to the subduction of the Turkestan ocean—during the Carboniferous Hercynian orogeny in the Tien Shan—a portion of the Paleo-Tethys ocean subducted northward and lead to the formation and obduction of a volcanic arc. This Carboniferous North Pamir arc is of Andean style in the western Darvaz segment and trends towards an intraoceanic arc in the eastern, Oytag segment. A suite of arc-volcanic rocks and intercalated, marine sediments together with intruded voluminous plagiogranites (trondhjemite and tonalite) and granodiorites was uplifted and eroded during the Permian, as demonstrated by widespread sedimentary unconformities. Today it constitutes a major portion of the North Pamir.
In this work, the first comprehensive Uranium-Lead (U-Pb) laser-ablation inductively-coupled-plasma mass-spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) radiometric age data are presented along with geochemical data from the volcanic and plutonic rocks of the North Pamir volcanic arc. Zircon U-Pb data indicate a major intrusive phase between 340 and 320 Ma. The magmatic rocks show an arc-signature, with more primitive signatures in the Oytag segment compared to the Darvaz segment. Volcanic rocks in the Chinese North Pamir were indirectly dated by determining the age of ocean floor alteration. We investigate calcite filled vesicles and show that oxidative sea water and the basaltic host rock are major trace element sources. The age of ocean floor alteration, within a range of 25 Ma, constrains the extrusion age of the volcanic rocks. In the Chinese Pamir, arc-volcanic basalts have been dated to the Visean-Serpukhovian boundary. This relates the North Pamir volcanic arc to coeval units in the Tien Shan. Our findings further question the idea of a continuous Tarim-Tajik continent in the Paleozoic.
From the Permian (Guadalupian) on, a progressive sea-retreat led to continental conditions in the northeastern Pamir. Large parts of Central Asia were affected by transcurrent tectonics, while subduction of the Paleo-Tethys went on south of the accreted North Pamir arc, likely forming an accretionary wedge, representing an early stage of the later Karakul-Mazar tectonic unit. Graben systems dissected the Permian carbonate platforms, that formed on top of the uplifted Carboniferous arc in the central and western North Pamir. A continental graben formed in the eastern North Pamir. Zircon U-Pb dating suggest initiation of volcanic activity at ~260 Ma. Extensional tectonics prevailed throughout the Triassic, forming the Hindukush-North Pamir rift system. New geochemistry and zircon U-Pb data tie volcanic rocks, found in the Chinese Pamir, to coeval arc-related plutonic rocks found within the Karakul-Mazar arc-accretionary complex. The sedimentary environment in the continental North Pamir rift evolved from an alluvial plain, lake dominated environment in the Guadalupian to a coarser-clastic, alluvial, braided river dominated in the Triassic. Volcanic activity terminated in the early Jurassic. We conducted Potassium-Argon (K-Ar) fine-fraction dating on the Shala Tala thrust fault, a major structure juxtaposing Paleozoic marine units of lower greenschist to amphibolite facies conditions against continental Permian deposits. Fault slip under epizonal conditions is dated to 204.8 ± 3.7 Ma (2σ), implying Rhaetian nappe emplacement. This pinpoints the Central–North Pamir collision, since the Shala Tala thrust was a back-thrust at that time.
River flooding is a constant peril for societies, causing direct economic losses in the order of $100 billion worldwide each year. Under global change, the prolonged concentration of people and assets in floodplains is accompanied by an emerging intensification of flood extremes due to anthropogenic global warming, ultimately exacerbating flood risk in many regions of the world.
Flood adaptation plays a key role in the mitigation of impacts, but poor understanding of vulnerability and its dynamics limits the validity of predominant risk assessment methods and impedes effective adaptation strategies. Therefore, this thesis investigates new methods for flood risk assessment that embrace the complexity of flood vulnerability, using the understudied commercial sector as an application example.
Despite its importance for accurate risk evaluation, flood loss modeling has been based on univariable and deterministic stage-damage functions for a long time. However, such simplistic methods only insufficiently describe the large variation in damage processes, which initiated the development of multivariable and probabilistic loss estimation techniques. The first study of this thesis developed flood loss models for companies that are based on emerging statistical and machine learning approaches (i.e., random forest, Bayesian network, Bayesian regression). In a benchmarking experiment on basis of object-level loss survey data, the study showed that all proposed models reproduced the heterogeneity in damage processes and outperformed conventional stage-damage functions with respect to predictive accuracy. Another advantage of the novel methods is that they convey probabilistic information in predictions, which communicates the large remaining uncertainties transparently and, hence, supports well-informed risk assessment.
Flood risk assessment combines vulnerability assessment (e.g., loss estimation) with hazard and exposure analyses. Although all of the three risk drivers interact and change over time, such dependencies and dynamics are usually not explicitly included in flood risk models. Recently, systemic risk assessment that dissolves the isolated consideration of risk drivers has gained traction, but the move to holistic risk assessment comes with limited thoroughness in terms of loss estimation and data limitations. In the second study, I augmented a socio-hydrological system dynamics model for companies in Dresden, Germany, with the multivariable Bayesian regression loss model from the first study. The additional process-detail and calibration data improved the loss estimation in the systemic risk assessment framework and contributed to more accurate and reliable simulations. The model uses Bayesian inference to quantify uncertainty and learn the model parameters from a combination of prior knowledge and diverse data.
The third study demonstrates the potential of the socio-hydrological flood risk model for continuous, long-term risk assessment and management. Using hydroclimatic ad socioeconomic forcing data, I projected a wide range of possible risk trajectories until the end of the century, taking into account the adaptive behavior of companies. The study results underline the necessity of increased adaptation efforts to counteract the expected intensification of flood risk due to climate change. A sensitivity analysis of the effectiveness of different adaptation measures and strategies revealed that optimized adaptation has the potential to mitigate flood risk by up to 60%, particularly when combining structural and non-structural measures. Additionally, the application shows that systemic risk assessment is capable of capturing adverse long-term feedbacks in the human-flood system such as the levee effect.
Overall, this thesis advances the representation of vulnerability in flood risk modeling by offering modeling solutions that embrace the complexity of human-flood interactions and quantify uncertainties consistently using probabilistic modeling. The studies show how scarce information in data and previous experiments can be integrated in the inference process to provide model predictions and simulations that are reliable and rich in information. Finally, the focus on the flood vulnerability of companies provides new insights into the heterogeneous damage processes and distinct flood coping of this sector.
Biogeochemical analyses of lacustrine environments are well-established methods that allow exploring and understanding complex systems in the lake ecosystem. However, most were conducted in temperate lakes controlled by entirely different physical conditions than in tropical climates. The most important difference between the temperate and tropical lakes is lacking seasonal temperature fluctuations in the latter, which leads to a stable temperature gradient in the water column. Thus, the water column in tropical latitudes generally is void of perturbations that can be seen in their temperate counterparts. Permanent stratification in the water column provides optimal conditions for intact sedimentation. The geochemical processes in the water column and the weathering process in the distinct lithology in the catchment leads to the different biogeochemical characteristic in the sediment. Conducting a biogeochemical study in this lake sediment, especially in the Sediment Water Interface (SWI) helps reveal the sedimentation and diagenetic process records influenced by the internal or external loading. Lake Sentani, the study area, is one of the thousands of lakes in Indonesia and located in the Papua province. This tropical lake has a unique feature, as it consists of four interconnected sub-basins with different water depths. More importantly, its catchment is comprised of various different lithologies. Hence, its lithological characteristics are highly diverse, and range from mafic and ultramafic rocks to clastic sediment and carbonates. Each sub-basin receives a distinct sediment input. Equally important, besides the natural loading, Lake Sentani is also influenced by anthropogenic input. Previous studies have elaborated that there is an increase in population growth rate around the lake which has direct consequences on eutrophication. Considering these factors, the government of The Republic of Indonesia put Lake Sentani on the list of national priority lakes for restoration. This thesis aims to develop a fundamental understanding of Lake Sentani's sedimentary geochemistry and geomicrobiology with a special focus on the effects of different lithologies and anthropogenic pressures in the catchment area. We conducted geochemical and geomicrobiology research on Lake Sentani to meet this objective. We investigated geochemical characteristics in the water column, porewater, and sediment core of the four sub-basins. Additional to direct investigations of the lake itself, we also studied the sediments in the tributary rivers, of which some are ephemeral, as well as the river mouths, as connections between riverine and the lacustrine habitat. The thesis is composed of three main publications about Lake Sentani and supported by several publications that focus on other tropical lakes in Indonesia. The first main publication investigates the geochemical characterization of the water column, porewater, and surface sediment (upper 40-50 cm) from the center of the four sub-basins. It reveals that besides catchment lithology, the water column heavily influences the geochemical characteristics in the lake sediments and their porewater. The findings indicate that water column stratification has a strong influence on overall chemistry. The four sub-basins are very different with regard to their water column chemistry. Based on the physicochemical profiles, especially dissolved oxygen, one sub-basin is oxygenated, one intermediate i.e. just reaches oxygen depletion at the sediment-water interface, and two sub-basins are fully meromictic. However, all four sub-basins share the same surface water chemistry. The structure of the water column creates differences on the patterns of anions and cations in the porewater. Likewise, the distinct differences in geochemical composition between the sub-basins show that the lithology in the catchment affects the geochemical characteristic in the sediment. Overall, water column stratification and particularly bottom water oxygenation strongly influence the overall elemental composition of the sediment and porewater composition. The second publication reveals differences in surface sediment composition between habitats, influenced by lithological variations in the catchment area. The macro-element distribution shows that the geochemical characteristics between habitats are different. Furthermore, the geochemical composition also indicates a distinct distribution between the sub-basins. The geochemical composition of the eastern sub-basin suggests that lithogenic elements are more dominant than authigenic elements. This is also supported by sulfide speciation, particle distribution, and smear slide data. The third publication is a geomicrobiological study of the surface sediment. We compare the geochemical composition of the surface sediment and its microbiological composition and compare the different signals. Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) of the 16S rRNA gene was applied to determine the microbial community composition of the surface sediment from a great number of locations. We use a large number of sampling sites in all four sub-basins as well as in the rivers and river mouths to illustrate the links between the river, the river mouth, and the lake. Rigorous assessment of microbial communities across the diverse Lake Sentani habitats allowed us to study some of these links and report novel findings on microbial patterns in such ecosystems. The main result of the Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) based on microbial community composition highlighted some commonalities but also differences between the microbial community analysis and the geochemical data. The microbial community in rivers, river mouths and sub-basins is strongly influenced by anthropogenic input from the catchment area. Generally, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes could be an indicator for river sediments. The microbial community in the river is directly influenced by anthropogenic pressure and is markedly different from the lake sediment. Meanwhile, the microbial community in the lake sediment reflects the anoxic environment, which is prevalent across the lake in all sediments below a few mm burial depth. The lake sediments harbour abundant sulfate reducers and methanogens. The microbial communities in sediments from river mouths are influenced by both rivers and lake ecosystems. This study provides valuable information to understand the basic processes that control biogeochemical cycling in Lake Sentani. Our findings are critical for lake managers to accurately assess the uncertainties of the changing environmental conditions related to the anthropogenic pressure in the catchment area. Lake Sentani is a unique study site directly influenced by the different geology across the watershed and morphometry of the four studied basins. As a result of these factors, there are distinct geochemical differences between the habitats (river, river mouth, lake) and the four sub-basins. In addition to geochemistry, microbial community composition also shows differences between habitats, although there are no obvious differences between the four sub-basins. However, unlike sediment geochemistry, microbial community composition is impacted by human activities. Therefore, this thesis will provide crucial baseline data for future lake management.
Towards unifying approaches in exposure modelling for scenario-based multi-hazard risk assessments
(2023)
This cumulative thesis presents a stepwise investigation of the exposure modelling process for risk assessment due to natural hazards while highlighting its, to date, not much-discussed importance and associated uncertainties. Although “exposure” refers to a very broad concept of everything (and everyone) that is susceptible to damage, in this thesis it is narrowed down to the modelling of large-area residential building stocks. Classical building exposure models for risk applications have been constructed fully relying on unverified expert elicitation over data sources (e.g., outdated census datasets), and hence have been implicitly assumed to be static in time and in space. Moreover, their spatial representation has also typically been simplified by geographically aggregating the inferred composition onto coarse administrative units whose boundaries do not always capture the spatial variability of the hazard intensities required for accurate risk assessments. These two shortcomings and the related epistemic uncertainties embedded within exposure models are tackled in the first three chapters of the thesis. The exposure composition of large-area residential building stocks is studied on the scope of scenario-based earthquake loss models. Then, the proposal of optimal spatial aggregation areas of exposure models for various hazard-related vulnerabilities is presented, focusing on ground-shaking and tsunami risks. Subsequently, once the experience is gained in the study of the composition and spatial aggregation of exposure for various hazards, this thesis moves towards a multi-hazard context while addressing cumulative damage and losses due to consecutive hazard scenarios. This is achieved by proposing a novel method to account for the pre-existing damage descriptions on building portfolios as a key input to account for scenario-based multi-risk assessment. Finally, this thesis shows how the integration of the aforementioned elements can be used in risk communication practices. This is done through a modular architecture based on the exploration of quantitative risk scenarios that are contrasted with social risk perceptions of the directly exposed communities to natural hazards.
In Chapter 1, a Bayesian approach is proposed to update the prior assumptions on such composition (i.e., proportions per building typology). This is achieved by integrating high-quality real observations and then capturing the intrinsic probabilistic nature of the exposure model. Such observations are accounted as real evidence from both: field inspections (Chapter 2) and freely available data sources to update existing (but outdated) exposure models (Chapter 3). In these two chapters, earthquake scenarios with parametrised ground motion fields were transversally used to investigate the role of such epistemic uncertainties related to the exposure composition through sensitivity analyses. Parametrised scenarios of seismic ground shaking were the hazard input utilised to study the physical vulnerability of building portfolios. The second issue that was investigated, which refers to the spatial aggregation of building exposure models, was investigated within two decoupled vulnerability contexts: due to seismic ground shaking through the integration of remote sensing techniques (Chapter 3); and within a multi-hazard context by integrating the occurrence of associated tsunamis (Chapter 4). Therein, a careful selection of the spatial aggregation entities while pursuing computational efficiency and accuracy in the risk estimates due to such independent hazard scenarios (i.e., earthquake and tsunami) are discussed. Therefore, in this thesis, the physical vulnerability of large-area building portfolios due to tsunamis is considered through two main frames: considering and disregarding the interaction at the vulnerability level, through consecutive and decoupled hazard scenarios respectively, which were then contrasted.
Contrary to Chapter 4, where no cumulative damages are addressed, in Chapter 5, data and approaches, which were already generated in former sections, are integrated with a novel modular method to ultimately study the likely interactions at the vulnerability level on building portfolios. This is tested by evaluating cumulative damages and losses after earthquakes with increasing magnitude followed by their respective tsunamis. Such a novel method is grounded on the possibility of re-using existing fragility models within a probabilistic framework. The same approach is followed in Chapter 6 to forecast the likely cumulative damages to be experienced by a building stock located in a volcanic multi-hazard setting (ash-fall and lahars). In that section, special focus was made on the manner the forecasted loss metrics are communicated to locally exposed communities. Co-existing quantitative scientific approaches (i.e., comprehensive exposure models; explorative risk scenarios involving single and multiple hazards) and semi-qualitative social risk perception (i.e., level of understanding that the exposed communities have about their own risk) were jointly considered. Such an integration ultimately allowed this thesis to also contribute to enhancing preparedness, science divulgation at the local level as well as technology transfer initiatives.
Finally, a synthesis of this thesis along with some perspectives for improvement and future work are presented.
Throughout the last ~3 million years, the Earth's climate system was characterised by cycles of glacial and interglacial periods. The current warm period, the Holocene, is comparably stable and stands out from this long-term cyclicality. However, since the industrial revolution, the climate has been increasingly affected by a human-induced increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. While instrumental observations are used to describe changes over the past ~200 years, indirect observations via proxy data are the main source of information beyond this instrumental era. These data are indicators of past climatic conditions, stored in palaeoclimate archives around the Earth. The proxy signal is affected by processes independent of the prevailing climatic conditions. In particular, for sedimentary archives such as marine sediments and polar ice sheets, material may be redistributed during or after the initial deposition and subsequent formation of the archive. This leads to noise in the records challenging reliable reconstructions on local or short time scales. This dissertation characterises the initial deposition of the climatic signal and quantifies the resulting archive-internal heterogeneity and its influence on the observed proxy signal to improve the representativity and interpretation of climate reconstructions from marine sediments and ice cores.
To this end, the horizontal and vertical variation in radiocarbon content of a box-core from the South China Sea is investigated. The three-dimensional resolution is used to quantify the true uncertainty in radiocarbon age estimates from planktonic foraminifera with an extensive sampling scheme, including different sample volumes and replicated measurements of batches of small and large numbers of specimen. An assessment on the variability stemming from sediment mixing by benthic organisms reveals strong internal heterogeneity. Hence, sediment mixing leads to substantial time uncertainty of proxy-based reconstructions with error terms two to five times larger than previously assumed.
A second three-dimensional analysis of the upper snowpack provides insights into the heterogeneous signal deposition and imprint in snow and firn. A new study design which combines a structure-from-motion photogrammetry approach with two-dimensional isotopic data is performed at a study site in the accumulation zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The photogrammetry method reveals an intermittent character of snowfall, a layer-wise snow deposition with substantial contributions by wind-driven erosion and redistribution to the final spatially variable accumulation and illustrated the evolution of stratigraphic noise at the surface. The isotopic data show the preservation of stratigraphic noise within the upper firn column, leading to a spatially variable climate signal imprint and heterogeneous layer thicknesses. Additional post-depositional modifications due to snow-air exchange are also investigated, but without a conclusive quantification of the contribution to the final isotopic signature.
Finally, this characterisation and quantification of the complex signal formation in marine sediments and polar ice contributes to a better understanding of the signal content in proxy data which is needed to assess the natural climate variability during the Holocene.
The role of biogenic carbonate producers in the evolution of the geometries of carbonate systems has been the subject of numerous research projects. Attempts to classify modern and ancient carbonate systems by their biotic components have led to the discrimination of biogenic carbonate producers broadly into Photozoans, which are characterised by an affinity for warm tropical waters and high dependence on light penetration, and Heterozoans which are generally associated with both cool water environments and nutrient-rich settings with little to no light penetration. These broad categories of carbonate sediment producers have also been recognised to dominate in specific carbonate systems. Photozoans are commonly dominant in flat-topped platforms with steep margins, while Heterozoans generally dominate carbonate ramps. However, comparatively little is known on how these two main groups of carbonate producers interact in the same system and impact depositional geometries responding to changes in environmental conditions such as sea level fluctuation, antecedent slope, sediment transport processes, etc. This thesis presents numerical models to investigate the evolution of Miocene carbonate systems in the Mediterranean from two shallow marine domains: 1) a Miocene flat-topped platform dominated by Photozoans, with a significant component of Hetrozoans in the slope and 2) a Heterozoan distally steepened ramp, with seagrass-influenced (Photozoan) inner ramp. The overarching aim of the three articles comprising this cumulative thesis is to provide a numerical study of the role of Photozoans and Heterozoans in the evolution of carbonate system geometries and how these biotas respond to changes in environmental conditions. This aim was achieved using stratigraphic forward modelling, which provides an approach to quantitatively integrate multi-scale datasets to reconstruct sedimentary processes and products during the evolution of a sedimentary system.
In a Photozoan-dominated carbonate system, such as the Miocene Llucmajor platform in Western Mediterranean, stratigraphic forward modelling dovetailed with a robust set of sensitivity tests reveal how the geometry of the carbonate system is determined by the complex interaction of Heterozoan and Photozoan biotas in response to variable conditions of sea level fluctuation, substrate configuration, sediment transport processes and the dominance of Photozoan over Heterozoan production. This study provides an enhanced understanding of the different carbonate systems that are possible under different ecological and hydrodynamic conditions. The research also gives insight into the roles of different biotic associations in the evolution of carbonate geometries through time and space. The results further show that the main driver of platform progradation in a Llucmajor-type system is the lowstand production of Heterozoan sediments, which form the necessary substratum for Photozoan production.
In Heterozoan systems, sediment production is mainly characterised by high transport deposits, that are prone to redistribution by waves and gravity, thereby precluding the development of steep margins. However, in the Menorca ramp, the occurrence of sediment trapping by seagrass led to the evolution of distal slope steepening. We investigated, through numerical modelling, how such a seagrass-influenced ramp responds to the frequency and amplitude of sea level changes, variable carbonate production between the euphotic and oligophotic zone, and changes in the configuration of the paleoslope. The study reinforces some previous hypotheses and presents alternative scenarios to the established concepts of high-transport ramp evolution. The results of sensitivity experiments show that steep slopes are favoured in ramps that develop in high-frequency sea level fluctuation with amplitudes between 20 m and 40 m. We also show that ramp profiles are significantly impacted by the paleoslope inclination, such that an optimal antecedent slope of about 0.15 degrees is required for the Menorca distally steepened ramp to develop.
The third part presents an experimental case to argue for the existence of a Photozoan sediment threshold required for the development of steep margins in carbonate platforms. This was carried out by developing sensitivity tests on the forward models of the flat-topped (Llucmajor) platform and the distally steepened (Menorca) platform. The results show that models with Photozoan sediment proportion below a threshold of about 40% are incapable of forming steep slopes. The study also demonstrates that though it is possible to develop steep margins by seagrass sediment trapping, such slopes can only be stabilized by the appropriate sediment fabric and/or microbial binding. In the Photozoan-dominated system, the magnitude of slope steepness depends on the proportion of Photozoan sediments in the system. Therefore, this study presents a novel tool for characterizing carbonate systems based on their biogenic components.
The electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method is widely used to investigate geological, geotechnical, and hydrogeological problems in inland and aquatic environments (i.e., lakes, rivers, and seas). The objective of the ERT method is to obtain reliable resistivity models of the subsurface that can be interpreted in terms of the subsurface structure and petrophysical properties. The reliability of the resulting resistivity models depends not only on the quality of the acquired data, but also on the employed inversion strategy. Inversion of ERT data results in multiple solutions that explain the measured data equally well. Typical inversion approaches rely on different deterministic (local) strategies that consider different smoothing and damping strategies to stabilize the inversion. However, such strategies suffer from the trade-off of smearing possible sharp subsurface interfaces separating layers with resistivity contrasts of up to several orders of magnitude. When prior information (e.g., from outcrops, boreholes, or other geophysical surveys) suggests sharp resistivity variations, it might be advantageous to adapt the parameterization and inversion strategies to obtain more stable and geologically reliable model solutions. Adaptations to traditional local inversions, for example, by using different structural and/or geostatistical constraints, may help to retrieve sharper model solutions. In addition, layer-based model parameterization in combination with local or global inversion approaches can be used to obtain models with sharp boundaries.
In this thesis, I study three typical layered near-surface environments in which prior information is used to adapt 2D inversion strategies to favor layered model solutions. In cooperation with the coauthors of Chapters 2-4, I consider two general strategies. Our first approach uses a layer-based model parameterization and a well-established global inversion strategy to generate ensembles of model solutions and assess uncertainties related to the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem. We apply this method to invert ERT data sets collected in an inland coastal area of northern France (Chapter~2) and offshore of two Arctic regions (Chapter~3). Our second approach consists of using geostatistical regularizations with different correlation lengths. We apply this strategy to a more complex subsurface scenario on a local intermountain alluvial fan in southwestern Germany (Chapter~4). Overall, our inversion approaches allow us to obtain resistivity models that agree with the general geological understanding of the studied field sites. These strategies are rather general and can be applied to various geological environments where a layered subsurface structure is expected. The flexibility of our strategies allows adaptations to invert other kinds of geophysical data sets such as seismic refraction or electromagnetic induction methods, and could be considered for joint inversion approaches.
Traditional ways of reducing flood risk have encountered limitations in a climate-changing and rapidly urbanizing world. For instance, there has been a demanding requirement for massive investment in order to maintain a consistent level of security as well as increased flood exposure of people and property due to a false sense of security arising from the flood protection infrastructure. Against this background, nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained popularity as a sustainable and alternative way of dealing with diverse societal challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss. In particular, their ability to reduce flood risks while also offering ecological benefits has recently received global attention. Diverse co-benefits of NBS that favor both humans and nature are viewed as promising a wide endorsement of NBS. However, people’s perceptions of NBS are not always positive. Local resistance to NBS projects as well as decision-makers’ and practitioners’ unwillingness to adopt NBS have been pointed out as a bottleneck to the successful realization and mainstreaming of NBS. In this regard, there has been a growing necessity to investigate people’s perceptions of NBS. Current research has lacked an integrative perspective of both attitudinal and contextual factors that guide perceptions of NBS; it not only lacks empirical evidence, but a few existing ones are rather conflicting without having underlying theories. This has led to the overarching research question of this dissertation, "What shapes people’s perceptions of NBS in the context of flooding?" The dissertation aims to answer the following sub-questions in the three papers that make up this dissertation: 1. What are the topics reflected in the previous literature influencing perceptions of NBS as a means to reduce hydro-meteorological risks? (Paper I) 2. What are the stimulating and hampering attitudinal and contextual factors for mainstreaming NBS for flood risk management? How are NBS conceptualized? (Paper II) 3. How are public attitudes toward the NBS projects shaped? How do risk-and place-related factors shape individual attitudes toward NBS? (Paper III) This dissertation follows an integrative approach of considering “place” and “risk”, as well as the surrounding context, by analyzing attitudinal (i.e., individual) and contextual (i.e., systemic) factors. “Place” is mainly concerned with affective elements (e.g., bond to locality and natural environment) whereas “risk” is related to cognitive elements (e.g., threat appraisal). The surrounding context provides systemic drivers and barriers with the possibility of interfering the influence of place and risk for perceptions of NBS. To empirically address the research questions, the current status of the knowledge about people’s perceptions of NBS for flood risks was investigated by conducting a systematic review (Paper I). Based on these insights, a case study of South Korea was used to demonstrate key contextual and attitudinal factors for mainstreaming NBS through the lens of experts (Paper II). Lastly, by conducting a citizen survey, it investigated the relationship between the previously discussed concepts in Papers I and II using structural equation modeling, focusing on the core concepts, namely risk and place (Paper III). As a result, Paper I identified the key topics relating to people’s perceptions, including the perceived value of co-benefits, perceived effectiveness of risk reduction effectiveness, participation of stakeholders, socio-economic and place-specific conditions, environmental attitude, and uncertainty of NBS. Paper II confirmed Paper I's findings regarding attitudinal factors. In addition, several contextual hampering or stimulating factors were found to be similar to those of any emerging technologies (i.e., path dependence, lack of operational and systemic capacity). Among all, one of the distinctive features in NBS contexts, at least in the South Korean case, is the politicization of NBS, which can lead to polarization of ideas and undermine the decision-making process. Finally, Paper III provides a framework with the core topics (i.e., place and risk) that were considered critical in Paper I and Paper II. This place-based risk appraisal model (PRAM) connects people at risk and places where hazards (i.e., floods) and interventions (i.e., NBS) take place. The empirical analysis shows that, among the place-related variables, nature bonding was a positive predictor of the perceived risk-reduction effectiveness of NBS, and place identity was a negative predictor of supportive attitude. Among the risk-related variables, threat appraisal had a negative effect on perceived risk reduction effectiveness and supportive attitude, while well-communicated information, trust in flood risk management, and perceived co-benefit were positive predictors. This dissertation proves that the place and risk attributes of NBS shape people’s perceptions of NBS. In order to optimize the NBS implementation, it is necessary to consider the meanings and values held in place before project implementation and how these attributes interact with individual and/or community risk profiles and other contextual factors. With the increasing necessity of using NBS to lower flood risks, these results make important suggestions for the future NBS project strategy and NBS governance.
The Arctic nearshore zone plays a key role in the carbon cycle. Organic-rich sediments get eroded off permafrost affected coastlines and can be directly transferred to the nearshore zone. Permafrost in the Arctic stores a high amount of organic matter and is vulnerable to thermo-erosion, which is expected to increase due to climate change. This will likely result in higher sediment loads in nearshore waters and has the potential to alter local ecosystems by limiting light transmission into the water column, thus limiting primary production to the top-most part of it, and increasing nutrient export from coastal erosion. Greater organic matter input could result in the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Climate change also acts upon the fluvial system, leading to greater discharge to the nearshore zone. It leads to decreasing sea-ice cover as well, which will both increase wave energy and lengthen the open-water season. Yet, knowledge on these processes and the resulting impact on the nearshore zone is scarce, because access to and instrument deployment in the nearshore zone is challenging.
Remote sensing can alleviate these issues in providing rapid data delivery in otherwise non-accessible areas. However, the waters in the Arctic nearshore zone are optically complex, with multiple influencing factors, such as organic rich suspended sediments, colored dissolved organic matter (cDOM), and phytoplankton. The goal of this dissertation was to use remotely sensed imagery to monitor processes related to turbidity caused by suspended sediments in the Arctic nearshore zone. In-situ measurements of water-leaving reflectance and surface water turbidity were used to calibrate a semi-empirical algorithm which relates turbidity from satellite imagery. Based on this algorithm and ancillary ocean and climate variables, the mechanisms underpinning nearshore turbidity in the Arctic were identified at a resolution not achieved before.
The calibration of the Arctic Nearshore Turbidity Algorithm (ANTA) was based on in-situ measurements from the coastal and inner-shelf waters around Herschel Island Qikiqtaruk (HIQ) in the western Canadian Arctic from the summer seasons 2018 and 2019. It performed better than existing algorithms, developed for global applications, in relating turbidity from remotely sensed imagery. These existing algorithms were lacking validation data from permafrost affected waters, and were thus not able to reflect the complexity of Arctic nearshore waters. The ANTA has a higher sensitivity towards the lowest turbidity values, which is an asset for identifying sediment pathways in the nearshore zone. Its transferability to areas beyond HIQ was successfully demonstrated using turbidity measurements matching satellite image recordings from Adventfjorden, Svalbard. The ANTA is a powerful tool that provides robust turbidity estimations in a variety of Arctic nearshore environments.
Drivers of nearshore turbidity in the Arctic were analyzed by combining ANTA results from the summer season 2019 from HIQ with ocean and climate variables obtained from the weather station at HIQ, the ERA5 reanalysis database, and the Mackenzie River discharge. ERA5 reanalysis data were obtained as domain averages over the Canadian Beaufort Shelf. Nearshore turbidity was linearly correlated to wind speed, significant wave height and wave period. Interestingly, nearshore turbidity was only correlated to wind speed at the shelf, but not to the in-situ measurements from the weather station at HIQ. This shows that nearshore turbidity, albeit being of limited spatial extent, gets influenced by the weather conditions multiple kilometers away, rather than in its direct vicinity. The large influence of wave energy on nearshore turbidity indicates that freshly eroded material off the coast is a major contributor to the nearshore sediment load. This contrasts results from the temperate and tropical oceans, where tides and currents are the major drivers of nearshore turbidity. The Mackenzie River discharge was not identified as a driver of nearshore turbidity in 2019, however, the analysis of 30 years of Landsat archive imagery from 1986 to 2016 suggests a direct link between the prevailing wind direction, which heavily influences the Mackenzie River plume extent, and nearshore turbidity around HIQ. This discrepancy could be caused by the abnormal discharge behavior of the Mackenzie River in 2019.
This dissertation has substantially advanced the understanding of suspended sediment processes in the Arctic nearshore zone and provided new monitoring tools for future studies. The presented results will help to understand the role of the Arctic nearshore zone in the carbon cycle under a changing climate.
The Pamir Frontal Thrust (PFT) located in the Trans Alai range in Central Asia is the principal active fault of the intracontinental India-Eurasia convergence zone and constitutes the northernmost boundary of the Pamir orogen at the NW edge of this collision zone. Frequent seismic activity and ongoing crustal shortening reflect the northward propagation of the Pamir into the intermontane Alai Valley. Quaternary deposits are being deformed and uplifted by the advancing thrust front of the Trans Alai range. The Alai Valley separates the Pamir range front from the Tien Shan mountains in the north; the Alai Valley is the vestige of a formerly contiguous basin that linked the Tadjik Depression in the west with the Tarim Basin in the east. GNSS measurements across the Central Pamir document a shortening rate of ~25 mm/yr, with a dramatic decrease of ~10-15 mm over a short distance across the northernmost Trans Alai range. This suggests that almost half of the shortening in the greater Pamir – Tien Shan collision zone is absorbed along the PFT. The short-term (geodetic) and long-term (geologic) shortening rates across the northern Pamir appear to be at odds with an apparent slip-rate discrepancy along the frontal fault system of the Pamir. Moreover, the present-day seismicity and historical records have not revealed great Mw > 7 earthquakes that might be expected with such a significant slip accommodation. In contrast, recent and historic earthquakes exhibit complex rupture patterns within and across seismotectonic segments bounding the Pamir mountain front, challenging our understanding of fault interaction and the seismogenic potential of this area, and leaving the relationships between seismicity and the geometry of the thrust front not well understood.
In this dissertation I employ different approaches to assess the seismogenic behavior along the PFT. Firstly, I provide paleoseismic data from five trenches across the central PFT segment (cPFT) and compute a segment-wide earthquake chronology over the past 16 kyr. This novel dataset provides important insights into the recurrence, magnitude, and rupture extent of past earthquakes along the cPFT. I interpret five, possibly six paleoearthquakes that have ruptured the Pamir mountain front since ∼7 ka and 16 ka, respectively. My results indicate that at least three major earthquakes ruptured the full-segment length and possibly crossed segment boundaries with a recurrence interval of ∼1.9 kyr and potential magnitudes of up to Mw 7.4. Importantly, I did not find evidence for great (i.e., Mw ≥8) earthquakes.
Secondly, I combine my paleoseimic results with morphometric analyses to establish a segment-wide distribution of the cumulative vertical separation along offset fluvial terraces and I model a long-term slip rate for the cPFT. My investigations reveal discrepancies between the extents of slip and rupture during apparent partial segment ruptures in the western half of the cPFT. Combined with significantly higher fault scarp offsets in this sector of the cPFT, the observations indicate a more mature fault section with a potential for future fault linkage. I estimate an average rate of horizontal motion for the cPFT of 4.1 ± 1.5 mm/yr during the past ∼5 kyr, which does not fully match the GNSS-derived present-day shortening rate of ∼10 mm/yr. This suggests a complex distribution of strain accumulation and potential slip partitioning between the cPFT and additional faults and folds within the Pamir that may be associated with a partially locked regional décollement.
The third part of the thesis provides new insights regarding the surface rupture of the 2008 Mw 6.6 Nura earthquake that ruptured along the eastern PFT sector. I explore this rupture in the context of its structural complexity by combining extensive field observations with high-resolution digital surface models. I provide a map of the rupture extent, net slip measurements, and updated regional geological observations. Based on this data I propose a tectonic model in this area associated with secondary flexural-slip faulting along steeply dipping bedding of folded Paleogene sedimentary strata that is related to deformation along a deeper blind thrust. Here, the strain release seems to be transferred from the PFT towards older inherited basement structures within the area of advanced Pamir-Tien Shan collision zone.
The extensive research of my dissertation results in a paleoseismic database of the past 16 ~kyr, which contributes to the understanding of the seismogenic behavior of the PFT, but also to that of segmented thrust-fault systems in active collisional settings. My observations underscore the importance of combining different methodological approaches in the geosciences, especially in structurally complex tectonic settings like the northern Pamir. Discrepancy between GNSS-derived present-day deformation rates and those from different geological archives in the central part, as well as the widespread distribution of the deformation due to earthquake triggered strain transfer in the eastern part reveals the complexity of this collision zone and calls for future studies involving multi-temporal and interdisciplinary approaches.
Among the multitude of geomorphological processes, aeolian shaping processes are of special character, Pedogenic dust is one of the most important sources of atmospheric aerosols and therefore regarded as a key player for atmospheric processes. Soil dust emissions, being complex in composition and properties, influence atmospheric processes and air quality and has impacts on other ecosystems. In this because even though their immediate impact can be considered low (exceptions exist), their constant and large-scale force makes them a powerful player in the earth system. dissertation, we unravel a novel scientific understanding of this complex system based on a holistic dataset acquired during a series of field experiments on arable land in La Pampa, Argentina. The field experiments as well as the generated data provide information about topography, various soil parameters, the atmospheric dynamics in the very lower atmosphere (4m height) as well as measurements regarding aeolian particle movement across a wide range of particle size classes between 0.2μm up to the coarse sand.
The investigations focus on three topics: (a) the effects of low-scale landscape structures on aeolian transport processes of the coarse particle fraction, (b) the horizontal and vertical fluxes of the very fine particles and (c) the impact of wind gusts on particle emissions.
Among other considerations presented in this thesis, it could in particular be shown, that even though the small-scale topology does have a clear impact on erosion and deposition patterns, also physical soil parameters need to be taken into account for a robust statistical modelling of the latter. Furthermore, specifically the vertical fluxes of particulate matter have different characteristics for the particle size classes. Finally, a novel statistical measure was introduced to quantify the impact of wind gusts on the particle uptake and its application on the provided data set. The aforementioned measure shows significantly increased particle concentrations during points in time defined as gust event.
With its holistic approach, this thesis further contributes to the fundamental understanding of how atmosphere and pedosphere are intertwined and affect each other.
High-mountain regions provide valuable ecosystem services, including food, water, and energy production, to more than 900 million people worldwide. Projections hold, that this population number will rapidly increase in the next decades, accompanied by a continued urbanisation of cities located in mountain valleys. One of the manifestations of this ongoing socio-economic change of mountain societies is a rise in settlement areas and transportation infrastructure while an increased power need fuels the construction of hydropower plants along rivers in the high-mountain regions of the world. However, physical processes governing the cryosphere of these regions are highly sensitive to changes in climate and a global warming will likely alter the conditions in the headwaters of high-mountain rivers. One of the potential implications of this change is an increase in frequency and magnitude of outburst floods – highly dynamic flows capable of carrying large amounts of water and sediments. Sudden outbursts from lakes formed behind natural dams are complex geomorphological processes and are often part of a hazard cascade. In contrast to other types of natural hazards in high-alpine areas, for example landslides or avalanches, outburst floods are highly infrequent. Therefore, observations and data describing for example the mode of outburst or the hydraulic properties of the downstream propagating flow are very limited, which is a major challenge in contemporary (glacial) lake outburst flood research. Although glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslide-dammed lake outburst floods (LLOFs) are rare, a number of documented events caused high fatality counts and damage. The highest documented losses due to outburst floods since the start of the 20th century were induced by only a few high-discharge events. Thus, outburst floods can be a significant hazard to downvalley communities and infrastructure in high-mountain regions worldwide.
This thesis focuses on the Greater Himalayan region, a vast mountain belt stretching across 0.89 million km2. Although potentially hundreds of outburst floods have occurred there since the beginning of the 20th century, data on these events is still scarce. Projections of cryospheric change, including glacier-mass wastage and permafrost degradation, will likely result in an overall increase of the water volume stored in meltwater lakes as well as the destabilisation of mountain slopes in the Greater Himalayan region. Thus, the potential for outburst floods to affect the increasingly more densely populated valleys of this mountain belt is also likely to increase in the future. A prime example of one of these valleys is the Pokhara valley in Nepal, which is drained by the Seti Khola, a river crossing one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. This valley is also home to Nepal’s second largest, rapidly growing city, Pokhara, which currently has a population of more than half a million people – some of which live in informal settlements within the floodplain of the Seti Khola. Although there is ample evidence for past outburst floods along this river in recent and historic times, these events have hardly been quantified.
The main motivation of my thesis is to address the data scarcity on past and potential future outburst floods in the Greater Himalayan region, both at a regional and at a local scale. For the former, I compiled an inventory of >3,000 moraine-dammed lakes, of which about 1% had a documented sudden failure in the past four decades. I used this data to test whether a number of predictors that have been widely applied in previous GLOF assessments are statistically relevant when estimating past GLOF susceptibility. For this, I set up four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models, in which I explored the credibility of the predictors lake area, lake-area dynamics, lake elevation, parent-glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality. By using a hierarchical approach consisting of two levels, this probabilistic framework also allowed for spatial variability on GLOF susceptibility across the vast study area, which until now had not been considered in studies of this scale. The model results suggest that in the Nyainqentanglha and Eastern Himalayas – regions with strong negative glacier-mass balances – lakes have been more prone to release GLOFs than in regions with less negative or even stable glacier-mass balances. Similarly, larger lakes in larger catchments had, on average, a higher probability to have had a GLOF in the past four decades. Yet, monsoonality, lake elevation, and lake-area dynamics were more ambiguous. This challenges the credibility of a lake’s rapid growth in surface area as an indicator of a pending outburst; a metric that has been applied to regional GLOF assessments worldwide.
At a local scale, my thesis aims to overcome data scarcity concerning the flow characteristics of the catastrophic May 2012 flood along the Seti Khola, which caused 72 fatalities, as well as potentially much larger predecessors, which deposited >1 km³ of sediment in the Pokhara valley between the 12th and 14th century CE. To reconstruct peak discharges, flow depths, and flow velocities of the 2012 flood, I mapped the extents of flood sediments from RapidEye satellite imagery and used these as a proxy for inundation limits. To constrain the latter for the Mediaeval events, I utilised outcrops of slackwater deposits in the fills of tributary valleys. Using steady-state hydrodynamic modelling for a wide range of plausible scenarios, from meteorological (1,000 m³ s-1) to cataclysmic outburst floods (600,000 m³ s-1), I assessed the likely initial discharges of the recent and the Mediaeval floods based on the lowest mismatch between sedimentary evidence and simulated flood limits. One-dimensional HEC-RAS simulations suggest, that the 2012 flood most likely had a peak discharge of 3,700 m³ s-1 in the upper Seti Khola and attenuated to 500 m³ s-1 when arriving in Pokhara’s suburbs some 15 km downstream.
Simulations of flow in two-dimensions with orders of magnitude higher peak discharges in ANUGA show extensive backwater effects in the main tributary valleys. These backwater effects match the locations of slackwater deposits and, hence, attest for the flood character of Mediaeval sediment pulses. This thesis provides first quantitative proof for the hypothesis, that the latter were linked to earthquake-triggered outbursts of large former lakes in the headwaters of the Seti Khola – producing floods with peak discharges of >50,000 m³ s-1.
Building on this improved understanding of past floods along the Seti Khola, my thesis continues with an analysis of the impacts of potential future outburst floods on land cover, including built-up areas and infrastructure mapped from high-resolution satellite and OpenStreetMap data. HEC-RAS simulations of ten flood scenarios, with peak discharges ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 m³ s-1, show that the relative inundation hazard is highest in Pokhara’s north-western suburbs. There, the potential effects of hydraulic ponding upstream of narrow gorges might locally sustain higher flow depths. Yet, along this reach, informal settlements and gravel mining activities are close to the active channel. By tracing the construction dynamics in two of these potentially affected informal settlements on multi-temporal RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery, I found that exposure increased locally between three- to twentyfold in just over a decade (2008 to 2021).
In conclusion, this thesis provides new quantitative insights into the past controls on the susceptibility of glacial lakes to sudden outburst at a regional scale and the flow dynamics of propagating flood waves released by past events at a local scale, which can aid future hazard assessments on transient scales in the Greater Himalayan region. My subsequent exploration of the impacts of potential future outburst floods to exposed infrastructure and (informal) settlements might provide valuable inputs to anticipatory assessments of multiple risks in the Pokhara valley.
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second-largest mass of ice on Earth. Being almost 2000 km long, more than 700 km wide, and more than 3 km thick at the summit, it holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 7m if melted completely. Despite its massive size, it is particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change: temperatures over the Greenland Ice Sheet have increased by more than 2.7◦C in the past 30 years, twice as much as the global mean temperature. Consequently, the ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the 1980s and the rate of loss has increased sixfold since then. Moreover, it is one of the potential tipping elements of the Earth System, which might undergo irreversible change once a warming threshold is exceeded. This thesis aims at extending the understanding of the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming by analyzing processes and feedbacks relevant to its centennial to multi-millennial stability using ice sheet modeling.
One of these feedbacks, the melt-elevation-feedback is driven by the temperature rise with decreasing altitudes: As the ice sheet melts, its thickness and surface elevation decrease, exposing the ice surface to warmer air and thus increasing the melt rates even further. The glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) can partly mitigate this melt-elevation feedback as the bedrock lifts in response to an ice load decrease, forming the negative GIA feedback. In my thesis, I show that the interaction between these two competing feedbacks can lead to qualitatively different dynamical responses of the Greenland Ice Sheet to warming – from permanent loss to incomplete recovery, depending on the feedback parameters. My research shows that the interaction of those feedbacks can initiate self-sustained oscillations of the ice volume while the climate forcing remains constant.
Furthermore, the increased surface melt changes the optical properties of the snow or ice surface, e.g. by lowering their albedo, which in turn enhances melt rates – a process known as the melt-albedo feedback. Process-based ice sheet models often neglect this melt-albedo feedback. To close this gap, I implemented a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model, a computationally efficient approach that can capture the first-order effects of the melt-albedo feedback, into the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). Using the coupled model, I show in warming experiments that the melt-albedo feedback almost doubles the ice loss until the year 2300 under the low greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP2.6, compared to simulations where the melt-albedo feedback is neglected,
and adds up to 58% additional ice loss under the high emission scenario RCP8.5. Moreover, I find that the melt-albedo feedback dominates the ice loss until 2300, compared to the melt-elevation feedback.
Another process that could influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the warming induced softening of the ice and the resulting increase in flow. In my thesis, I show with PISM how the uncertainty in Glen’s flow law impacts the simulated response to warming. In a flow line setup at fixed climatic mass balance, the uncertainty in flow parameters leads to a range of ice loss comparable to the range caused by different warming levels.
While I focus on fundamental processes, feedbacks, and their interactions in the first three projects of my thesis, I also explore the impact of specific climate scenarios on the sea level rise contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To increase the carbon budget flexibility, some warming scenarios – while still staying within the limits of the Paris Agreement – include a temporal overshoot of global warming. I show that an overshoot by 0.4◦C increases the short-term and long-term ice loss from Greenland by several centimeters. The long-term increase is driven by the warming at high latitudes, which persists even when global warming is reversed. This leads to a substantial long-term commitment of the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.
Overall, in my thesis I show that the melt-albedo feedback is most relevant for the ice loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on centennial timescales. In contrast, the melt-elevation feedback and its interplay with the GIA feedback become increasingly relevant on millennial timescales. All of these influence the resilience of the Greenland Ice Sheet against global warming, in the near future and on the long term.
Seismology, like many scientific fields, e.g., music information retrieval and speech signal pro- cessing, is experiencing exponential growth in the amount of data acquired by modern seismo- logical networks. In this thesis, I take advantage of the opportunities offered by "big data" and by the methods developed in the areas of music information retrieval and machine learning to predict better the ground motion generated by earthquakes and to study the properties of the surface layers of the Earth. In order to better predict seismic ground motions, I propose two approaches based on unsupervised deep learning methods, an autoencoder network and Generative Adversarial Networks. The autoencoder technique explores a massive amount of ground motion data, evaluates the required parameters, and generates synthetic ground motion data in the Fourier amplitude spectra (FAS) domain. This method is tested on two synthetic datasets and one real dataset. The application on the real dataset shows that the substantial information contained within the FAS data can be encoded to a four to the five-dimensional manifold. Consequently, only a few independent parameters are required for efficient ground motion prediction. I also propose a method based on Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (CGAN) for simulating ground motion records in the time-frequency and time domains. CGAN generates the time-frequency domains based on the parameters: magnitude, distance, and shear wave velocities to 30 m depth (VS30). After generating the amplitude of the time-frequency domains using the CGAN model, instead of classical conventional methods that assume the amplitude spectra with a random phase spectrum, the phase of the time-frequency domains is recovered by minimizing the observed and reconstructed spectrograms. In the second part of this dissertation, I propose two methods for the monitoring and characterization of near-surface materials and site effect analyses. I implement an autocorrelation function and an interferometry method to monitor the velocity changes of near-surface materials resulting from the Kumamoto earthquake sequence (Japan, 2016). The observed seismic velocity changes during the strong shaking are due to the non-linear response of the near-surface materials. The results show that the velocity changes lasted for about two months after the Kumamoto mainshock. Furthermore, I used the velocity changes to evaluate the in-situ strain-stress relationship. I also propose a method for assessing the site proxy "VS30" using non-invasive analysis. In the proposed method, a dispersion curve of surface waves is inverted to estimate the shear wave velocity of the subsurface. This method is based on the Dix-like linear operators, which relate the shear wave velocity to the phase velocity. The proposed method is fast, efficient, and stable. All of the methods presented in this work can be used for processing "big data" in seismology and for the analysis of weak and strong ground motion data, to predict ground shaking, and to analyze site responses by considering potential time dependencies and nonlinearities.
Deep geological repositories represent a promising solution for the final disposal of nuclear waste. Due to its low permeability, high sorption capacity and self-sealing potential, Opalinus Clay (OPA) is considered a suitable host rock formation for the long-term storage of nuclear waste in Switzerland and Germany. However, the clay formation is characterized by compositional and structural variabilities including the occurrence of carbonate- and quartz-rich layers, pronounced bedding planes as well as tectonic elements such as pre-existing fault zones and fractures, suggesting heterogeneous rock mass properties.
Characterizing the heterogeneity of host rock properties is therefore essential for safety predictions of future repositories. This includes a detailed understanding of the mechanical and hydraulic properties, deformation behavior and the underlying deformation processes for an improved assessment of the sealing integrity and long-term safety of a deep repository in OPA. Against this background, this thesis presents the results of deformation experiments performed on intact and artificially fractured specimens of the quartz-rich, sandy and clay-rich, shaly facies of OPA. The experiments focus on the influence of mineralogical composition on the deformation behavior as well as the reactivation and sealing properties of pre-existing faults and fractures at different boundary conditions (e.g., pressure, temperature, strain rate).
The anisotropic mechanical properties of the sandy facies of OPA are presented in the first section, which were determined from triaxial deformation experiments using dried and resaturated samples loaded at 0°, 45° and 90° to the bedding plane orientation. A Paterson-type deformation apparatus was used that allowed to investigate how the deformation behavior is influenced by the variation of confining pressure (50 – 100 MPa), temperature (25 – 200 °C), and strain rate (1 × 10-3 – 5 × 10-6 s-1). Constant strain rate experiments revealed brittle to semi-brittle deformation behavior of the sandy facies at the applied conditions. Deformation behavior showed a strong dependence on confining pressure, degree of water saturation as well as bedding orientation, whereas the variation of temperature and strain rate had no significant effect on deformation. Furthermore, the sandy facies displays higher strength and stiffness compared to the clay-rich shaly facies deformed at similar conditions by Nüesch (1991). From the obtained results it can be concluded that cataclastic mechanisms dominate the short-term deformation behavior of dried samples from both facies up to elevated pressure (<200 MPa) and temperature (<200 °C) conditions.
The second part presents triaxial deformation tests that were performed to investigate how structural discontinuities affect the deformation behavior of OPA and how the reactivation of preexisting faults is influenced by mineral composition and confining pressure. To this end, dried cylindrical samples of the sandy and shaly facies of OPA were used, which contained a saw-cut fracture oriented at 30° to the long axis. After hydrostatic pre-compaction at 50 MPa, constant strain rate deformation tests were performed at confining pressures of 5, 20 or 35 MPa. With increasing confinement, a gradual transition from brittle, highly localized fault slip including a stress drop at fault reactivation to semi-brittle deformation behavior, characterized by increasing delocalization and non-linear strain hardening without dynamic fault reactivation, can be observed. Brittle localization was limited by the confining pressure at which the fault strength exceeded the matrix yield strength, above which strain partitioning between localized fault slip and distributed matrix deformation occurred. The sandy facies displayed a slightly higher friction coefficient (≈0.48) compared to the shaly facies (≈0.4). In addition, slide-hold-slide tests were conducted, revealing negative or negligible frictional strengthening, which suggests stable creep and long-term weakness of faults in both facies of OPA. The conducted experiments demonstrate that dilatant brittle fault reactivation in OPA may be favored at high overconsolidation ratios and shallow depths, increasing the risk of seismic hazard and the creation of fluid pathways.
The final section illustrates how the sealing capacity of fractures in OPA is affected by mineral composition. Triaxial flow-through experiments using Argon-gas were performed with dried samples from the sandy and shaly facies of OPA containing a roughened, artificial fracture. Slate, graywacke, quartzite, natural fault gouge, and granite samples were also tested to highlight the influence of normal stress, mineralogy and diagenesis on the sustainability of fracture transmissivity. With increasing normal stress, a non-linear decrease of fracture transmissivity can be observed that resulted in a permanent reduction of transmissivity after stress release. The transmissivity of rocks with a high portion of strong minerals (e.g., quartz) and high unconfined compressive strength was less sensitive to stress changes. In accordance with this, the sandy facies of OPA displayed a higher initial transmissivity that was less sensitive to stress changes compared to the shaly facies. However, transmissivity of rigid slate was less sensitive to stress changes than the sandy facies of OPA, although the slate is characterized by a higher phyllosilicate content. This demonstrates that in addition to mineral composition, other factors such as the degree of metamorphism, cementation and consolidation have to be considered when evaluating the sealing capacity of phyllosilicate-rich rocks.
The results of this thesis highlighted the role of confining pressure on the failure behavior of intact and artificially fractured OPA. Although the quartz-rich sandy facies may be considered as being more favorable for underground constructions due to its higher shear strength and stiffness than the shaly facies, the results indicate that when fractures develop in the sandy facies, they are more conductive and remain more permeable compared to fractures in the clay-dominated shaly facies at a given stress. The results may provide the basis for constitutive models to predict the integrity and evolution of a future repository. Clearly, the influence of composition and consolidation, e.g., by geological burial and uplift, on the mechanical sealing behavior of OPA highlights the need for a detailed site-specific material characterization for a future repository.
The Arctic is changing rapidly and permafrost is thawing. Especially ice-rich permafrost, such as the late Pleistocene Yedoma, is vulnerable to rapid and deep thaw processes such as surface subsidence after the melting of ground ice. Due to permafrost thaw, the permafrost carbon pool is becoming increasingly accessible to microbes, leading to increased greenhouse gas emissions, which enhances the climate warming.
The assessment of the molecular structure and biodegradability of permafrost organic matter (OM) is highly needed. My research revolves around the question “how does permafrost thaw affect its OM storage?” More specifically, I assessed (1) how molecular biomarkers can be applied to characterize permafrost OM, (2) greenhouse gas production rates from thawing permafrost, and (3) the quality of OM of frozen and (previously) thawed sediments.
I studied deep (max. 55 m) Yedoma and thawed Yedoma permafrost sediments from Yakutia (Sakha Republic). I analyzed sediment cores taken below thermokarst lakes on the Bykovsky Peninsula (southeast of the Lena Delta) and in the Yukechi Alas (Central Yakutia), and headwall samples from the permafrost cliff Sobo-Sise (Lena Delta) and the retrogressive thaw slump Batagay (Yana Uplands). I measured biomarker concentrations of all sediment samples. Furthermore, I carried out incubation experiments to quantify greenhouse gas production in thawing permafrost.
I showed that the biomarker proxies are useful to assess the source of the OM and to distinguish between OM derived from terrestrial higher plants, aquatic plants and microbial activity. In addition, I showed that some proxies help to assess the degree of degradation of permafrost OM, especially when combined with sedimentological data in a multi-proxy approach. The OM of Yedoma is generally better preserved than that of thawed Yedoma sediments. The greenhouse gas production was highest in the permafrost sediments that thawed for the first time, meaning that the frozen Yedoma sediments contained most labile OM. Furthermore, I showed that the methanogenic communities had established in the recently thawed sediments, but not yet in the still-frozen sediments.
My research provided the first molecular biomarker distributions and organic carbon turnover data as well as insights in the state and processes in deep frozen and thawed Yedoma sediments. These findings show the relevance of studying OM in deep permafrost sediments.
Climate change is one of the greatest challenges to humanity in this century, and most noticeable consequences are expected to be impacts on the water cycle – in particular the distribution and availability of water, which is fundamental for all life on Earth. In this context, it is essential to better understand where and when water is available and what processes influence variations in water storages. While estimates of the overall terrestrial water storage (TWS) variations are available from the GRACE satellites, these represent the vertically integrated signal over all water stored in ice, snow, soil moisture, groundwater and surface water bodies. Therefore, complementary observational data and hydrological models are still required to determine the partitioning of the measured signal among different water storages and to understand the underlying processes. However, the application of large-scale observational data is limited by their specific uncertainties and the incapacity to measure certain water fluxes and storages. Hydrological models, on the other hand, vary widely in their structure and process-representation, and rarely incorporate additional observational data to minimize uncertainties that arise from their simplified representation of the complex hydrologic cycle.
In this context, this thesis aims to contribute to improving the understanding of global water storage variability by combining simple hydrological models with a variety of complementary Earth observation-based data. To this end, a model-data integration approach is developed, in which the parameters of a parsimonious hydrological model are calibrated against several observational constraints, inducing GRACE TWS, simultaneously, while taking into account each data’s specific strengths and uncertainties. This approach is used to investigate 3 specific aspects that are relevant for modelling and understanding the composition of large-scale TWS variations.
The first study focusses on Northern latitudes, where snow and cold-region processes define the hydrological cycle. While the study confirms previous findings that seasonal dynamics of TWS are dominated by the cyclic accumulation and melt of snow, it reveals that inter-annual TWS variations on the contrary, are determined by variations in liquid water storages. Additionally, it is found to be important to consider the impact of compensatory effects of spatially heterogeneous hydrological variables when aggregating the contribution of different storage components over large areas. Hence, the determinants of TWS variations are scale-dependent and underlying driving mechanism cannot be simply transferred between spatial and temporal scales. These findings are supported by the second study for the global land areas beyond the Northern latitudes as well.
This second study further identifies the considerable impact of how vegetation is represented in hydrological models on the partitioning of TWS variations. Using spatio-temporal varying fields of Earth observation-based data to parameterize vegetation activity not only significantly improves model performance, but also reduces parameter equifinality and process uncertainties. Moreover, the representation of vegetation drastically changes the contribution of different water storages to overall TWS variability, emphasizing the key role of vegetation for water allocation, especially between sub-surface and delayed water storages. However, the study also identifies parameter equifinality regarding the decay of sub-surface and delayed water storages by either evapotranspiration or runoff, and thus emphasizes the need for further constraints hereof.
The third study focuses on the role of river water storage, in particular whether it is necessary to include computationally expensive river routing for model calibration and validation against the integrated GRACE TWS. The results suggest that river routing is not required for model calibration in such a global model-data integration approach, due to the larger influence other observational constraints, and the determinability of certain model parameters and associated processes are identified as issues of greater relevance. In contrast to model calibration, considering river water storage derived from routing schemes can already significantly improve modelled TWS compared to GRACE observations, and thus should be considered for model evaluation against GRACE data.
Beyond these specific findings that contribute to improved understanding and modelling of large-scale TWS variations, this thesis demonstrates the potential of combining simple modeling approaches with diverse Earth observational data to improve model simulations, overcome inconsistencies of different observational data sets, and identify areas that require further research. These findings encourage future efforts to take advantage of the increasing number of diverse global observational data.
Li and B in ascending magmas: an experimental study on their mobility and isotopic fractionation
(2022)
This research study focuses on the behaviour of Li and B during magmatic ascent, and decompression-driven degassing related to volcanic systems. The main objective of this dissertation is to determine whether it is possible to use the diffusion properties of the two trace elements as a tool to trace magmatic ascent rate. With this objective, diffusion-couple and decompression experiments have been performed in order to study Li and B mobility in intra-melt conditions first, and then in an evolving system during decompression-driven degassing.
Synthetic glasses were prepared with rhyolitic composition and an initial water content of 4.2 wt%, and all the experiments were performed using an internally heated pressure vessel, in order to ensure a precise control on the experimental parameters such as temperature and pressure.
Diffusion-couple experiments were performed with a fix pressure 300 MPa. The temperature was varied in the range of 700-1250 °C with durations between 0 seconds and 24 hours. The diffusion-couple results show that Li diffusivity is very fast and starts already at very low temperature. Significant isotopic fractionation occurs due to the faster mobility of 6Li compared to 7Li. Boron diffusion is also accelerated by the presence of water, but the results of the isotopic ratios are unclear, and further investigation would be necessary to well constrain the isotopic fractionation process of boron in hydrous silicate melts. The isotopic ratios results show that boron isotopic fractionation might be affected by the speciation of boron in the silicate melt structure, as 10B and 11B tend to have tetrahedral and trigonal coordination, respectively.
Several decompression experiments were performed at 900 °C and 1000 °C, with pressures going from 300 MPa to 71-77 MPa and durations of 30 minutes, two, five and ten hours, in order to trigger water exsolution and the formation of vesicles in the sample. Textural observations and the calculation of the bubble number density confirmed that the bubble size and distribution after decompression is directly proportional to the decompression rate.
The overall SIMS results of Li and B show that the two trace elements tend to progressively decrease their concentration with decreasing decompression rates. This is explained because for longer decompression times, the diffusion of Li and B into the bubbles has more time to progress and the melt continuously loses volatiles as the bubbles expand their volumes.
For fast decompression, Li and B results show a concentration increase with a δ7Li and δ11B decrease close to the bubble interface, related to the sudden formation of the gas bubble, and the occurrence of a diffusion process in the opposite direction, from the bubble meniscus to the unaltered melt. When the bubble growth becomes dominant and Li and B start to exsolve into the gas phase, the silicate melt close to the bubble gets depleted in Li and B, because of a stronger diffusion of the trace elements into the bubble.
Our data are being applied to different models, aiming to combine the dynamics of bubble nucleation and growth with the evolution of trace elements concentration and isotopic ratios. Here, first considerations on these models will be presented, giving concluding remarks on this research study. All in all, the final remarks constitute a good starting point for further investigations. These results are a promising base to continue to study this process, and Li and B can indeed show clear dependences on decompression-related magma ascent rates in volcanic systems.
Due to the major role of greenhouse gas emissions in global climate change, the development of non-fossil energy technologies is essential. Deep geothermal energy represents such an alternative, which offers promising properties such as a high base load capability and a large untapped potential. The present work addresses barite precipitation within geothermal systems and the associated reduction in rock permeability, which is a major obstacle to maintaining high efficiency. In this context, hydro-geochemical models are essential to quantify and predict the effects of precipitation on the efficiency of a system.
The objective of the present work is to quantify the induced injectivity loss using numerical and analytical reactive transport simulations. For the calculations, the fractured-porous reservoirs of the German geothermal regions North German Basin (NGB) and Upper Rhine Graben (URG) are considered.
Similar depth-dependent precipitation potentials could be determined for both investigated regions (2.8-20.2 g/m3 fluid). However, the reservoir simulations indicate that the injectivity loss due to barite deposition in the NGB is significant (1.8%-6.4% per year) and the longevity of the system is affected as a result; this is especially true for deeper reservoirs (3000 m). In contrast, simulations of URG sites indicate a minor role of barite (< 0.1%-1.2% injectivity loss per year). The key differences between the investigated regions are reservoir thicknesses and the presence of fractures in the rock, as well as the ionic strength of the fluids. The URG generally has fractured-porous reservoirs with much higher thicknesses, resulting in a greater distribution of precipitates in the subsurface. Furthermore, ionic strengths are higher in the NGB, which accelerates barite precipitation, causing it to occur more concentrated around the wellbore. The more concentrated the precipitates occur around the wellbore, the higher the injectivity loss.
In this work, a workflow was developed within which numerical and analytical models can be used to estimate and quantify the risk of barite precipitation within the reservoir of geothermal systems. A key element is a newly developed analytical scaling score that provides a reliable estimate of induced injectivity loss. The key advantage of the presented approach compared to fully coupled reservoir simulations is its simplicity, which makes it more accessible to plant operators and decision makers. Thus, in particular, the scaling score can find wide application within geothermal energy, e.g., in the search for potential plant sites and the estimation of long-term efficiency.
Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures
(2022)
Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application.
Natural hazards pose a threat to human health and life. In Germany, where the research for this thesis was conducted, numerous weather extremes occurred in the recent past that caused high numbers of fatalities and huge financial losses. The focus of this research is centred around two relevant natural hazards: heat stress and flooding. Preventing negative health impacts and deaths, as well as structural and monetary damage is the purpose of risk management and this requires citizens to adapt as well. Risk communication is implemented to foster people’s risk perception and motivate individual adaptation. However, methods of risk and crisis communication are often not evaluated in a structured manner. Much interdisciplinary research exists on both risk perception and adaptation, however, not much is known on the connection between the two. Furthermore, the existing research on risk communication is often not theory-driven and its impact on individual adaptation and risk perception is not thoroughly documented. This dissertation follows three research aims: (1) Compare psychological theories that contribute to natural hazard research. (2) Explore risk perception and adaptive behaviour by applying multiple methods. And (3) evaluate one risk communication method and one crisis communication method in a theory-driven manner to determine their impact on risk perception and adaptive behaviour. First, a literature review is provided on existing psychological theories which aim to explain the behaviour of individuals with regards to natural hazards. The three key theories included are the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT), the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), and the Risk Information Seeking and Processing Model (RISP). Each of these are described and compared to each other with a focus on their explanatory power and practical significance in interdisciplinary research. Theoretical adaptations and possible extensions for future research are proposed for the presented approaches. Second, a multimethod field study on heat stress at an open-air event is presented. Face-to-face surveys (n = 306) and behavioural observations (n = 2750) were carried out at a horticultural show in Würzburg in summer 2018. The visitors’ risk perception, adaptive behaviour, and activity level were analysed and compared between hot days, summer days, and rainy days, applying correlation analyses, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses. Heat risk perception was generally high, but most respondents were unaware of heat warnings on the day of their visit. During hot days the highest level of adaptation and lower activity levels were observed. Discrepancies between reported and observed adaptation emerged for different age groups.. Third, a telephone and web-based household survey on heat stress was conducted in the cities of Würzburg, Potsdam, and Remscheid in 2019 (n = 1417). The PADM served as the study’s theoretical framework. In multiple regression analyses the PADM factors of environmental and demographic context, risk communication, and psychological processes explained a substantial share of variance of protection motivation, protective response, and emotion-focused coping. Elements of crisis communication of a heat warning were evaluated experimentally. Results showed that understanding and adaptation intention was significantly higher in individuals that had received action recommendations alongside the heat warning. Fourth, the focus is set on a risk communication method of the flood context. A series of workshops on individual flood protection was carried out in six different settings. The participants (n = 115) answered a pretest-posttest questionnaire. Mixed-model analyses revealed significant increases in self-efficacy, subjective knowledge, and protection motivation. Stronger effects were observed in younger participants and those with lower levels of previous knowledge on flood adaptation as well as no flood experience. The findings of this thesis help to understand individual adaptation, as well as possible impacts of risk and crisis communication on risk perception and adaptation. The scientific background of this work is rooted in the disciplines of psychology and geosciences. The two theories PMT and PADM proved to be useful theoretical frameworks for the presented studies to suggest improvements in risk communication methods. A broad picture of individual adaptation is captured through a variety of methods of self-reports (face-to-face, telephone-based, web-based, and paper-pencil surveys) and behavioural observations, which recorded past and intended behaviour. Alongside with further methodological recommendations, the theory-driven evaluations of risk and crisis communication methods can serve as best-practice examples for future evaluation studies in natural hazard research but also other sciences dealing with risk behaviour to identify and improve effective risk communication pathways.
Die Regierung des Waldes
(2022)
Wie verändert sich die Beziehung von Gesellschaften zu ihrer natürlichen Umgebung über die Zeit? Wie werden natürliche Systeme »in Wert« gesetzt? Und welchen Einfluss hat das auf die von uns so bezeichnete »Natur«? Am Beispiel eines Korkeichenwaldes in Marokko geht Juliane Schumacher diesen Fragen nach. Unter Bezugnahme auf Ansätze der Politischen Ökologie, der Science and Technology Studies und Foucaults Gouvernementalitätsanalyse zeigt sie, wie sich seit der Kolonialzeit die Bewirtschaftung des Waldes verändert hat. Dabei wird deutlich, wie Programme zur Integration der Wälder in globale Finanz- und Kohlenstoffmärkte zu neuen, experimentellen Formen der »Regierung des Waldes« führen.
River floods are among the most devastating natural hazards worldwide. As their generation is highly dependent on climatic conditions, their magnitude and frequency are projected to be affected by future climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to study the ways in which a changing climate will, and already has, influenced flood generation, and thereby flood hazard. Additionally, it is important to understand how other human influences - specifically altered land cover - affect flood hazard at the catchment scale.
The ways in which flood generation is influenced by climatic and land cover conditions differ substantially in different regions. The spatial variability of these effects needs to be taken into account by using consistent datasets across large scales as well as applying methods that can reflect this heterogeneity. Therefore, in the first study of this cumulative thesis a complex network approach is used to find 10 clusters of similar flood behavior among 4390 catchments in the conterminous United States. By using a consistent set of 31 hydro-climatological and land cover variables, and training a separate Random Forest model for each of the clusters, the regional controls on flood magnitude trends between 1960-2010 are detected. It is shown that changes in rainfall are the most important drivers of these trends, while they are regionally controlled by land cover conditions.
While climate change is most commonly associated with flood magnitude trends, it has been shown to also influence flood timing. This can lead to trends in the size of the area across which floods occur simultaneously, the flood synchrony scale. The second study is an analysis of data from 3872 European streamflow gauges and shows that flood synchrony scales have increased in Western Europe and decreased in Eastern Europe. These changes are attributed to changes in flood generation, especially a decreasing relevance of snowmelt. Additionally, the analysis shows that both the absolute values and the trends of flood magnitudes and flood synchrony scales are positively correlated. If these trends persist in the future and are not accounted for, the combined increases of flood magnitudes and flood synchrony scales can exceed the capacities of disaster relief organizations and insurers.
Hazard cascades are an additional way through which climate change can influence different aspects of flood hazard. The 2019/2020 wildfires in Australia, which were preceded by an unprecedented drought and extinguished by extreme rainfall that led to local flooding, present an opportunity to study the effects of multiple preceding hazards on flood hazard. All these hazards are individually affected by climate change, additionally complicating the interactions within the cascade. By estimating and analyzing the burn severity, rainfall magnitude, soil erosion and stream turbidity in differently affected tributaries of the Manning River catchment, the third study shows that even low magnitude floods can pose a substantial hazard within a cascade.
This thesis shows that humanity is affecting flood hazard in multiple ways with spatially and temporarily varying consequences, many of which were previously neglected (e.g. flood synchrony scale, hazard cascades). To allow for informed decision making in risk management and climate change adaptation, it will be crucial to study these aspects across the globe and to project their trajectories into the future. The presented methods can depict the complex interactions of different flood drivers and their spatial variability, providing a basis for the assessment of future flood hazard changes. The role of land cover should be considered more in future flood risk modelling and management studies, while holistic, transferable frameworks for hazard cascade assessment will need to be designed.
Different lake systems might reflect different climate elements of climate changes, while the responses of lake systems are also divers, and are not completely understood so far. Therefore, a comparison of lakes in different climate zones, during the high-amplitude and abrupt climate fluctuations of the Last Glacial to Holocene transition provides an exceptional opportunity to investigate distinct natural lake system responses to different abrupt climate changes. The aim of this doctoral thesis was to reconstruct climatic and environmental fluctuations down to (sub-) annual resolution from two different lake systems during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition (~17 and 11 ka). Lake Gościąż, situated in the temperate central Poland, developed in the Allerød after recession of the Last Glacial ice sheets. The Dead Sea is located in the Levant (eastern Mediterranean) within a steep gradient from sub-humid to hyper-arid climate, and formed in the mid-Miocene. Despite their differences in sedimentation processes, both lakes form annual laminations (varves), which are crucial for studies of abrupt climate fluctuations. This doctoral thesis was carried out within the DFG project PALEX-II (Paleohydrology and Extreme Floods from the Dead Sea ICDP Core) that investigates extreme hydro-meteorological events in the ICDP core in relation to climate changes, and ICLEA (Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution Analyses) that intends to better the understanding of climate dynamics and landscape evolutions in north-central Europe since the Last Glacial. Further, it contributes to the Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM (Regional Climate Change and Humans) Research Theme 3 “Extreme events across temporal and spatial scales” that investigates extreme events using climate data, paleo-records and model-based simulations. The three main aims were to (1) establish robust chronologies of the lakes, (2) investigate how major and abrupt climate changes affect the lake systems, and (3) to compare the responses of the two varved lakes to these hemispheric-scale climate changes.
Robust chronologies are a prerequisite for high-resolved climate and environmental reconstructions, as well as for archive comparisons. Thus, addressing the first aim, the novel chronology of Lake Gościąż was established by microscopic varve counting and Bayesian age-depth modelling in Bacon for a non-varved section, and was corroborated by independent age constrains from 137Cs activity concentration measurements, AMS radiocarbon dating and pollen analysis. The varve chronology reaches from the late Allerød until AD 2015, revealing more Holocene varves than a previous study of Lake Gościąż suggested. Varve formation throughout the complete Younger Dryas (YD) even allowed the identification of annually- to decadal-resolved leads and lags in proxy responses at the YD transitions.
The lateglacial chronology of the Dead Sea (DS) was thus far mainly based on radiocarbon and U/Th-dating. In the unique ICDP core from the deep lake centre, continuous search for cryptotephra has been carried out in lateglacial sediments between two prominent gypsum deposits – the Upper and Additional Gypsum Units (UGU and AGU, respectively). Two cryptotephras were identified with glass analyses that correlate with tephra deposits from the Süphan and Nemrut volcanoes indicating that the AGU is ~1000 years younger than previously assumed, shifting it into the YD, and the underlying varved interval into the Bølling/Allerød, contradicting previous assumptions.
Using microfacies analyses, stable isotopes and temperature reconstructions, the second aim was achieved at Lake Gościąż. The YD lake system was dynamic, characterized by higher aquatic bioproductivity, more re-suspended material and less anoxia than during the Allerød and Early Holocene, mainly influenced by stronger water circulation and catchment erosion due to stronger westerly winds and less lake sheltering. Cooling at the YD onset was ~100 years longer than the final warming, while environmental proxies lagged the onset of cooling by ~90 years, but occurred contemporaneously during the termination of the YD. Chironomid-based temperature reconstructions support recent studies indicating mild YD summer temperatures. Such a comparison of annually-resolved proxy responses to both abrupt YD transitions is rare, because most European lake archives do not preserve varves during the YD.
To accomplish the second aim at the DS, microfacies analyses were performed between the UGU (~17 ka) and Holocene onset (~11 ka) in shallow- (Masada) and deep-water (ICDP core) environments. This time interval is marked by a huge but fluctuating lake level drop and therefore the complete transition into the Holocene is only recorded in the deep-basin ICDP core. In this thesis, this transition was investigated for the first time continuously and in detail. The final two pronounced lake level drops recorded by deposition of the UGU and AGU, were interrupted by one millennium of relative depositional stability and a positive water budget as recorded by aragonite varve deposition interrupted by only a few event layers. Further, intercalation of aragonite varves between the gypsum beds of the UGU and AGU shows that these generally dry intervals were also marked by decadal- to centennial-long rises in lake level. While continuous aragonite varves indicate decadal-long stable phases, the occurrence of thicker and more frequent event layers suggests general more instability during the gypsum units. These results suggest a pattern of complex and variable hydroclimate at different time scales during the Lateglacial at the DS.
The third aim was accomplished based on the individual studies above that jointly provide an integrated picture of different lake responses to different climate elements of hemispheric-scale abrupt climate changes during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. In general, climatically-driven facies changes are more dramatic in the DS than at Lake Gościąż. Further, Lake Gościąż is characterized by continuous varve formation nearly throughout the complete profile, whereas the DS record is widely characterized by extreme event layers, hampering the establishment of a continuous varve chronology. The lateglacial sedimentation in Lake Gościąż is mainly influenced by westerly winds and minor by changes in catchment vegetation, whereas the DS is primarily influenced by changes in winter precipitation, which are caused by temperature variations in the Mediterranean. Interestingly, sedimentation in both archives is more stable during the Bølling/Allerød and more dynamic during the YD, even when sedimentation processes are different.
In summary, this doctoral thesis presents seasonally-resolved records from two lake archives during the Lateglacial (ca 17-11 ka) to investigate the impact of abrupt climate changes in different lake systems. New age constrains from the identification of volcanic glass shards in the lateglacial sediments of the DS allowed the first lithology-based interpretation of the YD in the DS record and its comparison to Lake Gościąż. This highlights the importance of the construction of a robust chronology, and provides a first step for synchronization of the DS with other eastern Mediterranean archives. Further, climate reconstructions from the lake sediments showed variability on different time scales in the different archives, i.e. decadal- to millennial fluctuations in the lateglacial DS, and even annual variations and sub-decadal leads and lags in proxy responses during the rapid YD transitions in Lake Gościąż. This showed the importance of a comparison of different lake archives to better understand the regional and local impacts of hemispheric-scale climate variability. An unprecedented example is demonstrated here of how different lake systems show different lake responses and also react to different climate elements of abrupt climate changes. This further highlights the importance of the understanding of the respective lake system for climate reconstructions.
Gas hydrates are ice-like crystalline compounds made of water cavities that retain various types of guest molecules. Natural gas hydrates are CH4-rich but also contain higher hydrocarbons as well as CO2, H2S, etc. They are highly dependent of local pressure and temperature conditions. Considering the high energy content, natural gas hydrates are artificially dissociated for the production of methane gas. Besides, they may also dissociate in response to global warming. It is therefore crucial to investigate the hydrate nucleation and growth process at a molecular level. The understanding of how guest molecules in the hydrate cavities respond to warming climate or gas injection is also of great importance.
This thesis is concerned with a systematic investigation of simple and mixed gas hydrates at conditions relevant to the natural hydrate reservoir in Qilian Mountain permafrost, China. A high-pressure cell that integrated into the confocal Raman spectroscopy ensured a precise and continuous characterization of the hydrate phase during formation/dissociation/transformation processes with a high special and spectral resolution. By applying laboratory experiments, the formation of mixed gas hydrates containing other hydrocarbons besides methane was simulated in consideration of the effects from gas supply conditions and sediments. The results revealed a preferential enclathration of different guest molecules in hydrate cavities and further refute the common hypothesis of the coexistence of hydrate phases due to a changing feed gas phase. However, the presence of specific minerals and organic compounds in sediments may have significant impacts on the coexisting solid phases. With regard to the dissociation, the formation damage caused by fines mobilization and migration during hydrate decomposition was reported for the first time, illustrating the complex interactions between fine grains and hydrate particles. Gas hydrates, starting from simple CH4 hydrates to binary CH4—C3H8 hydrates and multi-component mixed hydrates were decomposed by thermal stimulation mimicking global warming. The mechanisms of guest substitution in hydrate structures were studied through the experimental data obtained from CH4—CO2, CH4—mixed gas hydrates and mixed gas hydrates—CO2 systems. For the first time, a second transformation behavior was documented during the transformation process from CH4 hydrates to CO2-rich mixed hydrates. Most of the crystals grew or maintained when exposed to CO2 gas while some others decreased in sizes and even disappeared over time. The highlight of the two last experimental simulations was to visualize and characterize the hydrate crystals which were at different structural transition stages. These experimental simulations enhanced our knowledge about the mixed gas hydrates in natural reservoirs and improved our capability to assess the response to global warming.
The estimation of financial losses is an integral part of flood risk assessment. The application of existing flood loss models on locations or events different from the ones used to train the models has led to low performance, showing that characteristics of the flood damaging process have not been sufficiently well represented yet. To improve flood loss model transferability, I explore various model structures aiming at incorporating different (inland water) flood types and pathways. That is based on a large survey dataset of approximately 6000 flood-affected households which addresses several aspects of the flood event, not only the hazard characteristics but also information on the affected building, socioeconomic factors, the household's preparedness level, early warning, and impacts. Moreover, the dataset reports the coincidence of different flood pathways. Whilst flood types are a classification of flood events reflecting their generating process (e.g. fluvial, pluvial), flood pathways represent the route the water takes to reach the receptors (e.g. buildings). In this work, the following flood pathways are considered: levee breaches, river floods, surface water floods, and groundwater floods.
The coincidence of several hazard processes at the same time and place characterises a compound event. In fact, many flood events develop through several pathways, such as the ones addressed in the survey dataset used. Earlier loss models, although developed with one or multiple predictor variables, commonly use loss data from a single flood event which is attributed to a single flood type, disregarding specific flood pathways or the coincidence of multiple pathways. This gap is addressed by this thesis through the following research questions: 1. In which aspects do flood pathways of the same (compound inland) flood event differ? 2. How much do factors which contribute to the overall flood loss in a building differ in various settings, specifically across different flood pathways? 3. How well can Bayesian loss models learn from different settings? 4. Do compound, that is, coinciding flood pathways result in higher losses than a single pathway, and what does the outcome imply for future loss modelling?
Statistical analysis has found that households affected by different flood pathways also show, in general, differing characteristics of the affected building, preparedness, and early warning, besides the hazard characteristics. Forecasting and early warning capabilities and the preparedness of the population are dominated by the general flood type, but characteristics of the hazard at the object-level, the impacts, and the recovery are more related to specific flood pathways, indicating that risk communication and loss models could benefit from the inclusion of flood-pathway-specific information.
For the development of the loss model, several potentially relevant predictors are analysed: water depth, duration, velocity, contamination, early warning lead time, perceived knowledge about self-protection, warning information, warning source, gap between warning and action, emergency measures, implementation of property-level precautionary measures (PLPMs), perceived efficacy of PLPMs, previous flood experience, awareness of flood risk, ownership, building type, number of flats, building quality, building value, house/flat area, building area, cellar, age, household size, number of children, number of elderly residents, income class, socioeconomic status, and insurance against floods. After a variable selection, descriptors of the hazard, building, and preparedness were deemed significant, namely: water depth, contamination, duration, velocity, building area, building quality, cellar, PLPMs, perceived efficacy of PLPMs, emergency measures, insurance, and previous flood experience. The inclusion of the indicators of preparedness is relevant, as they are rarely involved in loss datasets and in loss modelling, although previous studies have shown their potential in reducing losses. In addition, the linear model fit indicates that the explanatory factors are, in several cases, differently relevant across flood pathways.
Next, Bayesian multilevel models were trained, which intrinsically incorporate uncertainties and allow for partial pooling (i.e. different groups of data, such as households affected by different flood pathways, can learn from each other), increasing the statistical power of the model. A new variable selection was performed for this new model approach, reducing the number of predictors from twelve to seven variables but keeping factors of the hazard, building, and preparedness, namely: water depth, contamination, duration, building area, PLPMs, insurance, and previous flood experience. The new model was trained not only across flood pathways but also across regions of Germany, divided according to general socioeconomic factors and insurance policies, and across flood events. The distinction across regions and flood events did not improve loss modelling and led to a large overlap of regression coefficients, with no clear trend or pattern. The distinction of flood pathways showed credibly distinct regression coefficients, leading to a better understanding of flood loss modelling and indicating one potential reason why model transferability has been challenging.
Finally, new model structures were trained to include the possibility of compound inland floods (i.e. when multiple flood pathways coincide on the same affected asset). The dataset does not allow for verifying in which sequence the flood pathway waves occurred and predictor variables reflect only their mixed or combined outcome. Thus, two Bayesian models were trained: 1. a multi-membership model, a structure which learns the regression coefficients for multiple flood pathways at the same time, and 2. a multilevel model wherein the combination of coinciding flood pathways makes individual categories. The multi-membership model resulted in credibly different coefficients across flood pathways but did not improve model performance in comparison to the model assuming only a single dominant flood pathway. The model with combined categories signals an increase in impacts after compound floods, but due to the uncertainty in model coefficients and estimates, it is not possible to ascertain such an increase as credible. That is, with the current level of uncertainty in differentiating the flood pathways, the loss estimates are not credibly distinct from individual flood pathways.
To overcome the challenges faced, non-linear or mixed models could be explored in the future. Interactions, moderation, and mediation effects, as well as non-linear effects, should also be further studied. Loss data collection should regularly include preparedness indicators, and either data collection or hydraulic modelling should focus on the distinction of coinciding flood pathways, which could inform loss models and further improve estimates. Flood pathways show distinct (financial) impacts, and their inclusion in loss modelling proves relevant, for it helps in clarifying the different contribution of influencing factors to the final loss, improving understanding of the damaging process, and indicating future lines of research.
Technological progress allows for producing ever more complex predictive models on the basis of increasingly big datasets. For risk management of natural hazards, a multitude of models is needed as basis for decision-making, e.g. in the evaluation of observational data, for the prediction of hazard scenarios, or for statistical estimates of expected damage. The question arises, how modern modelling approaches like machine learning or data-mining can be meaningfully deployed in this thematic field. In addition, with respect to data availability and accessibility, the trend is towards open data. Topic of this thesis is therefore to investigate the possibilities and limitations of machine learning and open geospatial data in the field of flood risk modelling in the broad sense. As this overarching topic is broad in scope, individual relevant aspects are identified and inspected in detail.
A prominent data source in the flood context is satellite-based mapping of inundated areas, for example made openly available by the Copernicus service of the European Union. Great expectations are directed towards these products in scientific literature, both for acute support of relief forces during emergency response action, and for modelling via hydrodynamic models or for damage estimation. Therefore, a focus of this work was set on evaluating these flood masks. From the observation that the quality of these products is insufficient in forested and built-up areas, a procedure for subsequent improvement via machine learning was developed. This procedure is based on a classification algorithm that only requires training data from a particular class to be predicted, in this specific case data of flooded areas, but not of the negative class (dry areas). The application for hurricane Harvey in Houston shows the high potential of this method, which depends on the quality of the initial flood mask.
Next, it is investigated how much the predicted statistical risk from a process-based model chain is dependent on implemented physical process details. Thereby it is demonstrated what a risk study based on established models can deliver. Even for fluvial flooding, such model chains are already quite complex, though, and are hardly available for compound or cascading events comprising torrential rainfall, flash floods, and other processes. In the fourth chapter of this thesis it is therefore tested whether machine learning based on comprehensive damage data can offer a more direct path towards damage modelling, that avoids explicit conception of such a model chain. For that purpose, a state-collected dataset of damaged buildings from the severe El Niño event 2017 in Peru is used. In this context, the possibilities of data-mining for extracting process knowledge are explored as well. It can be shown that various openly available geodata sources contain useful information for flood hazard and damage modelling for complex events, e.g. satellite-based rainfall measurements, topographic and hydrographic information, mapped settlement areas, as well as indicators from spectral data. Further, insights on damaging processes are discovered, which mainly are in line with prior expectations. The maximum intensity of rainfall, for example, acts stronger in cities and steep canyons, while the sum of rain was found more informative in low-lying river catchments and forested areas. Rural areas of Peru exhibited higher vulnerability in the presented study compared to urban areas. However, the general limitations of the methods and the dependence on specific datasets and algorithms also become obvious.
In the overarching discussion, the different methods – process-based modelling, predictive machine learning, and data-mining – are evaluated with respect to the overall research questions. In the case of hazard observation it seems that a focus on novel algorithms makes sense for future research. In the subtopic of hazard modelling, especially for river floods, the improvement of physical models and the integration of process-based and statistical procedures is suggested. For damage modelling the large and representative datasets necessary for the broad application of machine learning are still lacking. Therefore, the improvement of the data basis in the field of damage is currently regarded as more important than the selection of algorithms.
Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are considered a cornerstone of future sustainable energy production. In such systems, high-pressure fluid injections break the rock to provide pathways for water to circulate in and heat up. This approach inherently induces small seismic events that, in rare cases, are felt or can even cause damage. Controlling and reducing the seismic impact of EGS is crucial for a broader public acceptance. To evaluate the applicability of hydraulic fracturing (HF) in EGS and to improve the understanding of fracturing processes and the hydromechanical relation to induced seismicity, six in-situ, meter-scale HF experiments with different injection schemes were performed under controlled conditions in crystalline rock in a depth of 410 m at the Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden).
I developed a semi-automated, full-waveform-based detection, classification, and location workflow to extract and characterize the acoustic emission (AE) activity from the continuous recordings of 11 piezoelectric AE sensors. Based on the resulting catalog of 20,000 AEs, with rupture sizes of cm to dm, I mapped and characterized the fracture growth in great detail. The injection using a novel cyclic injection scheme (HF3) had a lower seismic impact than the conventional injections. HF3 induced fewer AEs with a reduced maximum magnitude and significantly larger b-values, implying a decreased number of large events relative to the number of small ones. Furthermore, HF3 showed an increased fracture complexity with multiple fractures or a fracture network. In contrast, the conventional injections developed single, planar fracture zones (Publication 1).
An independent, complementary approach based on a comparison of modeled and observed tilt exploits transient long-period signals recorded at the horizontal components of two broad-band seismometers a few tens of meters apart from the injections. It validated the efficient creation of hydraulic fractures and verified the AE-based fracture geometries. The innovative joint analysis of AEs and tilt signals revealed different phases of the fracturing process, including the (re-)opening, growth, and aftergrowth of fractures, and provided evidence for the reactivation of a preexisting fault in one of the experiments (Publication 2). A newly developed network-based waveform-similarity analysis applied to the massive AE activity supports the latter finding.
To validate whether the reduction of the seismic impact as observed for the cyclic injection schemes during the Äspö mine-scale experiments is transferable to other scales, I additionally calculated energy budgets for injection experiments from previously conducted laboratory tests and from a field application. Across all three scales, the cyclic injections reduce the seismic impact, as depicted by smaller maximum magnitudes, larger b-values, and decreased injection efficiencies (Publication 3).
Localisation of deformation is a ubiquitous feature in continental rift dynamics and observed across drastically different time and length scales. This thesis comprises one experimental and two numerical modelling studies investigating strain localisation in (1) a ductile shear zone induced by a material heterogeneity and (2) in an active continental rift setting. The studies are related by the fact that the weakening mechanisms on the crystallographic and grain size scale enable bulk rock weakening, which fundamentally enables the formation of shear zones, continental rifts and hence plate tectonics. Aiming to investigate the controlling mechanisms on initiation and evolution of a shear zone, the torsion experiments of the experimental study were conducted in a Patterson type apparatus with strong Carrara marble cylinders with a weak, planar Solnhofen limestone inclusion. Using state-of-the-art numerical modelling software, the torsion experiments were simulated to answer questions regarding localisation procedure like stress distribution or the impact of rheological weakening. 2D numerical models were also employed to integrate geophysical and geological data to explain characteristic tectonic evolution of the Southern and Central Kenya Rift. Key elements of the numerical tools are a randomized initial strain distribution and the usage of strain softening. During the torsion experiments, deformation begins to localise at the limestone inclusion tips in a process zone, which propagates into the marble matrix with increasing deformation until a ductile shear zone is established. Minor indicators for coexisting brittle deformation are found close to the inclusion tip and presumed to slightly facilitate strain localisation besides the dominant ductile deformation processes. The 2D numerical model of the torsion experiment successfully predicts local stress concentration and strain rate amplification ahead of the inclusion in first order agreement with the experimental results. A simple linear parametrization of strain weaking enables high accuracy reproduction of phenomenological aspects of the observed weakening. The torsion experiments suggest that loading conditions do not affect strain localisation during high temperature deformation of multiphase material with high viscosity contrasts. A numerical simulation can provide a way of analysing the process zone evolution virtually and extend the examinable frame. Furthermore, the nested structure and anastomosing shape of an ultramylonite band was mimicked with an additional second softening step. Rheological weakening is necessary to establish a shear zone in a strong matrix around a weak inclusion and for ultramylonite formation.
Such strain weakening laws are also incorporated into the numerical models of the
Southern and Central Kenya Rift that capture the characteristic tectonic evolution. A three-stage early rift evolution is suggested that starts with (1) the accommodation of strain by a single border fault and flexure of the hanging-wall crust, after which (2) faulting in the hanging-wall and the basin centre increases before (3) the early-stage asymmetry is lost and basinward localisation of deformation occurs. Along-strike variability of rifts can be produced by modifying the initial random noise distribution. In summary, the three studies address selected aspects of the broad range of mechanisms and processes that fundamentally enable the deformation of rock and govern the localisation patterns across the scales. In addition to the aforementioned results, the first and second manuscripts combined, demonstrate a procedure to find new or improve on existing numerical formulations for specific rheologies and their dynamic weakening. These formulations are essential in addressing rock deformation from the grain to the global scale. As within the third study of this thesis, where geodynamic controls on the evolution of a rift were examined and acquired by the integration of geological and geophysical data into a numerical model.
Humankind and their environment need to be protected from the harmful effects of spent nuclear fuel, and therefore disposal in deep geological formations is favoured worldwide. Suitability of potential host rocks is evaluated, among others, by the retention capacity with respect to radionuclides. Safety assessments are based on the quantification of radionuclide migration lengths with numerical simulations as experiments cannot cover the required temporal (1 Ma) and spatial scales (>100 m).
Aim of the present thesis is to assess the migration of uranium, a geochemically complex radionuclide, in the potential host rock Opalinus Clay. Radionuclide migration in clay formations is governed by diffusion due to their low permeability and retarded by sorption. Both processes highly depend on pore water geochemistry and mineralogy that vary between different facies. Diffusion is quantified with the single-component (SC) approach using one diffusion coefficient for all species and the process-based multi-component (MC) option. With this, each species is assigned its own diffusion coefficient and the interaction with the diffuse double layer is taken into account. Sorption is integrated via a bottom-up approach using mechanistic surface complexation models and cation exchange. Therefore, reactive transport simulations are conducted with the geochemical code PHREEQC to quantify uranium migration, i.e. diffusion and sorption, as a function of mineralogical and geochemical heterogeneities on the host rock scale.
Sorption processes are facies dependent. Migration lengths vary between the Opalinus Clay facies by up to 10 m. Thereby, the geochemistry of the pore water, in particular the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), is more decisive for the sorption capacity than the amount of clay minerals. Nevertheless, higher clay mineral quantities compensate geochemical variations. Consequently, sorption processes must be quantified as a function of pore water geochemistry in contact with the mineral assemblage.
Uranium diffusion in the Opalinus Clay is facies independent. Speciation is dominated by aqueous ternary complexes of U(VI) with calcium and carbonate. Differences in the migration lengths between SC and MC diffusion are with +/-5 m negligible. Further, the application of the MC approach highly depends on the quality and availability of the underlying data. Therefore, diffusion processes can be adequately quantified with the SC approach using experimentally determined diffusion coefficients.
The hydrogeological system governs pore water geochemistry within the formation rather than the mineralogy. Diffusive exchange with the adjacent aquifers established geochemical gradients over geological time scales that can enhance migration by up to 25 m. Consequently, uranium sorption processes must be quantified following the identified priority: pCO2 > hydrogeology > mineralogy.
The presented research provides a workflow and orientation for other potential disposal sites with similar pore water geochemistry due to the identified mechanisms and dependencies. With a maximum migration length of 70 m, the retention capacity of the Opalinus Clay with respect to uranium is sufficient to fulfill the German legal minimum requirement of a thickness of at least 100 m.
Hydraulic-driven fractures play a key role in subsurface energy technologies across several scales. By injecting fluid at high hydraulic pressure into rock with intrinsic low permeability, in-situ stress field and fracture development pattern can be characterised as well as rock permeability can be enhanced. Hydraulic fracturing is a commercial standard procedure for enhanced oil and gas production of rock reservoirs with low permeability in petroleum industry. However, in EGS utilization, a major geological concern is the unsolicited generation of earthquakes due to fault reactivation, referred to as induced seismicity, with a magnitude large enough to be felt on the surface or to damage facilities and buildings. Furthermore, reliable interpretation of hydraulic fracturing tests for stress measurement is a great challenge for the energy technologies. Therefore, in this cumulative doctoral thesis the following research questions are investigated. (1): How do hydraulic fractures grow in hard rock at various scales?; (2): Which parameters control hydraulic fracturing and hydro-mechanical coupling?; and (3): How can hydraulic fracturing in hard rock be modelled?
In the laboratory scale study, several laboratory hydraulic fracturing experiments are investigated numerically using Irazu2D that were performed on intact cubic Pocheon granite samples from South Korea applying different injection protocols. The goal of the laboratory experiments is to test the concept of cyclic soft stimulation which may enable sustainable permeability enhancement (Publication 1).
In the borehole scale study, hydraulic fracturing tests are reported that were performed in boreholes located in central Hungary to determine the in-situ stress for a geological site investigation. At depth of about 540 m, the recorded pressure versus time curves in mica schist with low dip angle foliation show atypical evolution. In order to provide explanation for this observation, a series of discrete element computations using Particle Flow Code 2D are performed (Publication 2).
In the reservoir scale study, the hydro-mechanical behaviour of fractured crystalline rock due to one of the five hydraulic stimulations at the Pohang Enhanced Geothermal site in South Korea is studied. Fluid pressure perturbation at faults of several hundred-meter lengths during hydraulic stimulation is simulated using FracMan (Publication 3).
The doctoral research shows that the resulting hydraulic fracturing geometry will depend “locally”, i.e. at the length scale of representative elementary volume (REV) and below that (sub-REV), on the geometry and strength of natural fractures, and “globally”, i.e. at super-REV domain volume, on far-field stresses. Regarding hydro-mechanical coupling, it is suggested to define separate coupling relationship for intact rock mass and natural fractures. Furthermore, the relative importance of parameters affecting the magnitude of formation breakdown pressure, a parameter characterising hydro-mechanical coupling, is defined. It can be also concluded that there is a clear gap between the capacity of the simulation software and the complexity of the studied problems. Therefore, the computational time of the simulation of complex hydraulic fracture geometries must be reduced while maintaining high fidelity simulation results. This can be achieved either by extending the computational resources via parallelization techniques or using time scaling techniques. The ongoing development of used numerical models focuses on tackling these methodological challenges.
In my doctoral thesis, I examine continuous gravity measurements for monitoring of the geothermal site at Þeistareykir in North Iceland. With the help of high-precision superconducting gravity meters (iGravs), I investigate underground mass changes that are caused by operation of the geothermal power plant (i.e. by extraction of hot water and reinjection of cold water). The overall goal of this research project is to make a statement about the sustainable use of the geothermal reservoir, from which also the Icelandic energy supplier and power plant operator Landsvirkjun should benefit.
As a first step, for investigating the performance and measurement stability of the gravity meters, in summer 2017, I performed comparative measurements at the gravimetric observatory J9 in Strasbourg. From the three-month gravity time series, I examined calibration, noise and drift behaviour of the iGravs in comparison to stable long-term time series of the observatory superconducting gravity meters. After preparatory work in Iceland (setup of gravity stations, additional measuring equipment and infrastructure, discussions with Landsvirkjun and meetings with the Icelandic partner institute ISOR), gravity monitoring at Þeistareykir was started in December 2017. With the help of the iGrav records of the initial 18 months after start of measurements, I carried out the same investigations (on calibration, noise and drift behaviour) as in J9 to understand how the transport of the superconducting gravity meters to Iceland may influence instrumental parameters.
In the further course of this work, I focus on modelling and reduction of local gravity contributions at Þeistareykir. These comprise additional mass changes due to rain, snowfall and vertical surface displacements that superimpose onto the geothermal signal of the gravity measurements. For this purpose, I used data sets from additional monitoring sensors that are installed at each gravity station and adapted scripts for hydro-gravitational modelling. The third part of my thesis targets geothermal signals in the gravity measurements.
Together with my PhD colleague Nolwenn Portier from France, I carried out additional gravity measurements with a Scintrex CG5 gravity meter at 26 measuring points within the geothermal field in the summers of 2017, 2018 and 2019. These annual time-lapse gravity measurements are intended to increase the spatial coverage of gravity data from the three continuous monitoring stations to the entire geothermal field. The combination of CG5 and iGrav observations, as well as annual reference measurements with an FG5 absolute gravity meter represent the hybrid gravimetric monitoring method for Þeistareykir. Comparison of the gravimetric data to local borehole measurements (of groundwater levels, geothermal extraction and injection rates) is used to relate the observed gravity changes to the actually extracted (and reinjected) geothermal fluids. An approach to explain the observed gravity signals by means of forward modelling of the geothermal production rate is presented at the end of the third (hybrid gravimetric) study. Further modelling with the help of the processed gravity data is planned by Landsvirkjun. In addition, the experience from time-lapse and continuous gravity monitoring will be used for future gravity measurements at the Krafla geothermal field 22 km south-east of Þeistareykir.
Plate tectonics describes the movement of rigid plates at the surface of the Earth as well as their complex deformation at three types of plate boundaries: 1) divergent boundaries such as rift zones and mid-ocean ridges, 2) strike-slip boundaries where plates grind past each other, such as the San Andreas Fault, and 3) convergent boundaries that form large mountain ranges like the Andes. The generally narrow deformation zones that bound the plates exhibit complex strain patterns that evolve through time. During this evolution, plate boundary deformation is driven by tectonic forces arising from Earth’s deep interior and from within the lithosphere, but also by surface processes, which erode topographic highs and deposit the resulting sediment into regions of low elevation. Through the combination of these factors, the surface of the Earth evolves in a highly dynamic way with several feedback mechanisms. At divergent boundaries, for example, tensional stresses thin the lithosphere, forcing uplift and subsequent erosion of rift flanks, which creates a sediment source. Meanwhile, the rift center subsides and becomes a topographic low where sediments accumulate. This mass transfer from foot- to hanging wall plays an important role during rifting, as it prolongs the activity of individual normal faults. When rifting continues, continents are eventually split apart, exhuming Earth’s mantle and creating new oceanic crust. Because of the complex interplay between deep tectonic forces that shape plate boundaries and mass redistribution at the Earth’s surface, it is vital to understand feedbacks between the two domains and how they shape our planet.
In this study I aim to provide insight on two primary questions: 1) How do divergent and strike-slip plate boundaries evolve? 2) How is this evolution, on a large temporal scale and a smaller structural scale, affected by the alteration of the surface through erosion and deposition? This is done in three chapters that examine the evolution of divergent and strike-slip plate boundaries using numerical models. Chapter 2 takes a detailed look at the evolution of rift systems using two-dimensional models. Specifically, I extract faults from a range of rift models and correlate them through time to examine how fault networks evolve in space and time. By implementing a two-way coupling between the geodynamic code ASPECT and landscape evolution code FastScape, I investigate how the fault network and rift evolution are influenced by the system’s erosional efficiency, which represents many factors like lithology or climate. In Chapter 3, I examine rift evolution from a three-dimensional perspective. In this chapter I study linkage modes for offset rifts to determine when fast-rotating plate-boundary structures known as continental microplates form. Chapter 4 uses the two-way numerical coupling between tectonics and landscape evolution to investigate how a strike-slip boundary responds to large sediment loads, and whether this is sufficient to form an entirely new type of flexural strike-slip basin.
The Andes are a ~7000 km long N-S trending mountain range developed along the South American western continental margin. Driven by the subduction of the oceanic Nazca plate beneath the continental South American plate, the formation of the northern and central parts of the orogen is a type case for a non-collisional orogeny. In the southern Central Andes (SCA, 29°S-39°S), the oceanic plate changes the subduction angle between 33°S and 35°S from almost horizontal (< 5° dip) in the north to a steeper angle (~30° dip) in the south. This sector of the Andes also displays remarkable along- and across- strike variations of the tectonic deformation patterns. These include a systematic decrease of topographic elevation, of crustal shortening and foreland and orogenic width, as well as an alternation of the foreland deformation style between thick-skinned and thin-skinned recorded along- and across the strike of the subduction zone. Moreover, the SCA are a very seismically active region. The continental plate is characterized by a relatively shallow seismicity (< 30 km depth) which is mainly focussed at the transition from the orogen to the lowland areas of the foreland and the forearc; in contrast, deeper seismicity occurs below the interiors of the northern foreland. Additionally, frequent seismicity is also recorded in the shallow parts of the oceanic plate and in a sector of the flat slab segment between 31°S and 33°S. The observed spatial heterogeneity in tectonic and seismic deformation in the SCA has been attributed to multiple causes, including variations in sediment thickness, the presence of inherited structures and changes in the subduction angle of the oceanic slab. However, there is no study that inquired the relationship between the long-term rheological configuration of the SCA and the spatial deformation patterns. Moreover, the effects of the density and thickness configuration of the continental plate and of variations in the slab dip angle in the rheological state of the lithosphere have been not thoroughly investigated yet. Since rheology depends on composition, pressure and temperature, a detailed characterization of the compositional, structural and thermal fields of the lithosphere is needed. Therefore, by using multiple geophysical approaches and data sources, I constructed the following 3D models of the SCA lithosphere: (i) a seismically-constrained structural and density model that was tested against the gravity field; (ii) a thermal model integrating the conversion of mantle shear-wave velocities to temperature with steady-state conductive calculations in the uppermost lithosphere (< 50 km depth), validated by temperature and heat-flow measurements; and (iii) a rheological model of the long-term lithospheric strength using as input the previously-generated models.
The results of this dissertation indicate that the present-day thermal and rheological fields of the SCA are controlled by different mechanisms at different depths. At shallow depths (< 50 km), the thermomechanical field is modulated by the heterogeneous composition of the continental lithosphere. The overprint of the oceanic slab is detectable where the oceanic plate is shallow (< 85 km depth) and the radiogenic crust is thin, resulting in overall lower temperatures and higher strength compared to regions where the slab is steep and the radiogenic crust is thick. At depths > 50 km, largest temperatures variations occur where the descending slab is detected, which implies that the deep thermal field is mainly affected by the slab dip geometry.
The outcomes of this thesis suggests that long-term thermomechanical state of the lithosphere influences the spatial distribution of seismic deformation. Most of the seismicity within the continental plate occurs above the modelled transition from brittle to ductile conditions. Additionally, there is a spatial correlation between the location of these events and the transition from the mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland to the weak domain of the orogen. In contrast, seismicity within the oceanic plate is also detected where long-term ductile conditions are expected. I therefore analysed the possible influence of additional mechanisms triggering these earthquakes, including the compaction of sediments in the subduction interface and dehydration reactions in the slab. To that aim, I carried out a qualitative analysis of the state of hydration in the mantle using the ratio between compressional- and shear-wave velocity (vp/vs ratio) from a previous seismic tomography. The results from this analysis indicate that the majority of the seismicity spatially correlates with hydrated areas of the slab and overlying continental mantle, with the exception of the cluster within the flat slab segment. In this region, earthquakes are likely triggered by flexural processes where the slab changes from a flat to a steep subduction angle.
First-order variations in the observed tectonic patterns also seem to be influenced by the thermomechanical configuration of the lithosphere. The mechanically strong domains of the forearc and foreland, due to their resistance to deformation, display smaller amounts of shortening than the relatively weak orogenic domain. In addition, the structural and thermomechanical characteristics modelled in this dissertation confirm previous analyses from geodynamic models pointing to the control of the observed heterogeneities in the orogen and foreland deformation style. These characteristics include the lithospheric and crustal thickness, the presence of weak sediments and the variations in gravitational potential energy.
Specific conditions occur in the cold and strong northern foreland, which is characterized by active seismicity and thick-skinned structures, although the modelled crustal strength exceeds the typical values of externally-applied tectonic stresses. The additional mechanisms that could explain the strain localization in a region that should resist deformation are: (i) increased tectonic forces coming from the steepening of the slab and (ii) enhanced weakening along inherited structures from pre-Andean deformation events. Finally, the thermomechanical conditions of this sector of the foreland could be a key factor influencing the preservation of the flat subduction angle at these latitudes of the SCA.
Salt deposits offer a variety of usage types. These include the mining of rock salt and potash salt as important raw materials, the storage of energy in man-made underground caverns, and the disposal of hazardous substances in former mines. The most serious risk with any of these usage types comes from the contact with groundwater or surface water. It causes an uncontrolled dissolution of salt rock, which in the worst case can result in the flooding or collapse of underground facilities. Especially along potash seams, cavernous structures can spread quickly, because potash salts show a much higher solubility than rock salt. However, as their chemical behavior is quite complex, previous models do not account for these highly soluble interlayers. Therefore, the objective of the present thesis is to describe the evolution of cavernous structures along potash seams in space and time in order to improve hazard mitigation during the utilization of salt deposits.
The formation of cavernous structures represents an interplay of chemical and hydraulic processes. Hence, the first step is to systematically investigate the dissolution and precipitation reactions that occur when water and potash salt come into contact. For this purpose, a geochemical reaction model is used. The results show that the minerals are only partially dissolved, resulting in a porous sponge like structure. With the saturation of the solution increasing, various secondary minerals are formed, whose number and type depend on the original rock composition. Field data confirm a correlation between the degree of saturation and the distance from the center of the cavern, where solution is entering. Subsequently, the reaction model is coupled with a flow and transport code and supplemented by a novel approach called ‘interchange’. The latter enables the exchange of solution and rock between areas of different porosity and mineralogy, and thus ultimately the growth of the cavernous structure. By means of several scenario analyses, cavern shape, growth rate and mineralogy are systematically investigated, taking also heterogeneous potash seams into account. The results show that basically four different cases can be distinguished, with mixed forms being a frequent occurrence in nature. The classification scheme is based on the dimensionless numbers Péclet and Damköhler, and allows for a first assessment of the hazard potential. In future, the model can be applied to any field case, using measurement data for calibration.
The presented research work provides a reactive transport model that is able to spatially and temporally characterize the propagation of cavernous structures along potash seams for the first time. Furthermore, it allows to determine thickness and composition of transition zones between cavern center and unaffected salt rock. The latter is particularly important in potash mining, so that natural cavernous structures can be located at an early stage and the risk of mine flooding can thus be reduced. The models may also contribute to an improved hazard prevention in the construction of storage caverns and the disposal of hazardous waste in salt deposits. Predictions regarding the characteristics and evolution of cavernous structures enable a better assessment of potential hazards, such as integrity or stability loss, as well as of suitable mitigation measures.
Major challenges during geothermal exploration and exploitation include the structural-geological characterization of the geothermal system and the application of sustainable monitoring concepts to explain changes in a geothermal reservoir during production and/or reinjection of fluids. In the absence of sufficiently permeable reservoir rocks, faults and fracture networks are preferred drilling targets because they can facilitate the migration of hot and/or cold fluids. In volcanic-geothermal systems considerable amounts of gas emissions can be released at the earth surface, often related to these fluid-releasing structures.
In this thesis, I developed and evaluated different methodological approaches and measurement concepts to determine the spatial and temporal variation of several soil gas parameters to understand the structural control on fluid flow. In order to validate their potential as innovative geothermal exploration and monitoring tools, these methodological approaches were applied to three different volcanic-geothermal systems. At each site an individual survey design was developed regarding the site-specific questions.
The first study presents results of the combined measurement of CO2 flux, ground temperatures, and the analysis of isotope ratios (δ13CCO2, 3He/4He) across the main production area of the Los Humeros geothermal field, to identify locations with a connection to its supercritical (T > 374◦C and P > 221 bar) geothermal reservoir. The results of the systematic and large-scale (25 x 200 m) CO2 flux scouting survey proved to be a fast and flexible way to identify areas of anomalous degassing. Subsequent sampling with high resolution surveys revealed the actual extent and heterogenous pattern of anomalous degassing areas. They have been related to the internal fault hydraulic architecture and allowed to assess favourable structural settings for fluid flow such as fault intersections. Finally, areas of unknown structurally controlled permeability with a connection to the superhot geothermal reservoir have been determined, which represent promising targets for future geothermal exploration and development.
In the second study, I introduce a novel monitoring approach by examining the variation of CO2 flux to monitor changes in the reservoir induced by fluid reinjection. For that reason, an automated, multi-chamber CO2 flux system was deployed across the damage zone of a major normal fault crossing the Los Humeros geothermal field. Based on the results of the CO2 flux scouting survey, a suitable site was selected that had a connection to the geothermal reservoir, as identified by hydrothermal CO2 degassing and hot ground temperatures (> 50 °C). The results revealed a response of gas emissions to changes in reinjection rates within 24 h, proving an active hydraulic communication between the geothermal reservoir and the earth surface. This is a promising monitoring strategy that provides nearly real-time and in-situ data about changes in the reservoir and allows to timely react to unwanted changes (e.g., pressure decline, seismicity).
The third study presents results from the Aluto geothermal field in Ethiopia where an area-wide and multi-parameter analysis, consisting of measurements of CO2 flux, 222Rn, and 220Rn activity concentrations and ground temperatures was conducted to detect hidden permeable structures. 222Rn and 220Rn activity concentrations are evaluated as a complementary soil gas parameter to CO2 flux, to investigate their potential to understand tectono-volcanic degassing. The combined measurement of all parameters enabled to develop soil gas fingerprints, a novel visualization approach. Depending on the magnitude of gas emissions and their migration velocities the study area was divided in volcanic (heat), tectonic (structures), and volcano-tectonic dominated areas. Based on these concepts, volcano-tectonic dominated areas, where hot hydrothermal fluids migrate along permeable faults, present the most promising targets for future geothermal exploration and development in this geothermal field. Two of these areas have been identified in the south and south-east which have not yet been targeted for geothermal exploitation. Furthermore, two unknown areas of structural related permeability could be identified by 222Rn and 220Rn activity concentrations.
Eventually, the fourth study presents a novel measurement approach to detect structural controlled CO2 degassing, in Ngapouri geothermal area, New Zealand. For the first time, the tunable diode laser (TDL) method was applied in a low-degassing geothermal area, to evaluate its potential as a geothermal exploration method. Although the sampling approach is based on profile measurements, which leads to low spatial resolution, the results showed a link between known/inferred faults and increased CO2 concentrations. Thus, the TDL method proved to be a successful in the determination of structural related permeability, also in areas where no obvious geothermal activity is present. Once an area of anomalous CO2 concentrations has been identified, it can be easily complemented by CO2 flux grid measurements to determine the extent and orientation of the degassing segment.
With the results of this work, I was able to demonstrate the applicability of systematic and area-wide soil gas measurements for geothermal exploration and monitoring purposes. In particular, the combination of different soil gases using different measurement networks enables the identification and characterization of fluid-bearing structures and has not yet been used and/or tested as standard practice. The different studies present efficient and cost-effective workflows and demonstrate a hands-on approach to a successful and sustainable exploration and monitoring of geothermal resources. This minimizes the resource risk during geothermal project development. Finally, to advance the understanding of the complex structure and dynamics of geothermal systems, a combination of comprehensive and cutting-edge geological, geochemical, and geophysical exploration methods is essential.
The spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria poses a globally increasing threat to public health care. The excessive use of antibiotics in animal husbandry can develop resistances in the stables. Transmission through direct contact with animals and contamination of food has already been proven. The excrements of the animals combined with a binding material enable a further potential path of spread into the environment, if they are used as organic manure in agricultural landscapes. As most of the airborne bacteria are attached to particulate matter, the focus of the work will be the atmospheric dispersal via the dust fraction.
Field measurements on arable lands in Brandenburg, Germany and wind erosion studies in a wind tunnel were conducted to investigate the risk of a potential atmospheric dust-associated spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria from poultry manure fertilized agricultural soils. The focus was to (i) characterize the conditions for aerosolization and (ii) qualify and quantify dust emissions during agricultural operations and wind erosion.
PM10 (PM, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 µm) emission factors and bacterial fluxes for poultry manure application and incorporation have not been previously reported before. The contribution to dust emissions depends on the water content of the manure, which is affected by the manure pretreatment (fresh, composted, stored, dried), as well as by the intensity of manure spreading from the manure spreader. During poultry manure application, PM10 emission ranged between 0.05 kg ha-1 and 8.37 kg ha-1. For comparison, the subsequent land preparation contributes to 0.35 – 1.15 kg ha-1 of PM10 emissions. Manure particles were still part of dust emissions but they were accounted to be less than 1% of total PM10 emissions due to the dilution of poultry manure in the soil after manure incorporation. Bacterial emissions of fecal origin were more relevant during manure application than during the subsequent manure incorporation, although PM10 emissions of manure incorporation were larger than PM10 emissions of manure application for the non-dried manure variants.
Wind erosion leads to preferred detachment of manure particles from sandy soils, when poultry manure has been recently incorporated. Sorting effects were determined between the low-density organic particles of manure origin and the soil particles of mineral origin close above the threshold of 7 m s-1. In dependence to the wind speed, potential erosion rates between 101 and 854 kg ha-1 were identified, if 6 t ha-1 of poultry manure were applied. Microbial investigation showed that manure bacteria got detached more easily from the soil surface during wind erosion, due to their attachment on manure particles.
Although antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ESBL-producing E. coli) were still found in the poultry barns, no further contamination could be detected with them in the manure, fertilized soils or in the dust generated by manure application, land preparation or wind erosion. Parallel studies of this project showed that storage of poultry manure for a few days (36 – 72 h) is sufficient to inactivate ESBL-producing E. coli. Further antibiotic-resistant bacteria, i.e. MRSA and VRE, were only found sporadically in the stables and not at all in the dust. Therefore, based on the results of this work, the risk of a potential infection by dust-associated antibiotic-resistant bacteria can be considered as low.
Magmatic continental rifts often constitute the earliest stage of nascent plate boundaries. These extensional tectonic provinces are characterized by ubiquitous normal faulting and volcanic activity; the spatial pattern, the geometry, and the age of these normal faults can help to unravel the spatiotemporal relationships between extensional deformation, magmatism, and long-wavelength crustal deformation of continental rift provinces. This study focuses on the active faulting in the Kenya Rift of the Cenozoic East African Rift System (EARS) with a focus on the mid-Pleistocene to the present-day.
To examine the early stages of continental break-up in the EARS, this thesis presents a time-averaged minimum extension rate for the inner graben of the Northern Kenya Rift (NKR) for the last 0.5 m.y. Using the TanDEM-X digital elevation model, fault-scarp geometries and associated throws are determined across the volcano-tectonic axis of the inner graben of the NKR. By integrating existing geochronology of faulted units with new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar radioisotopic dates, time-averaged extension rates are calculated. This study reveals that in the inner graben of the NKR, the long-term extension rate based on mid-Pleistocene to recent brittle deformation has minimum values of 1.0 to 1.6 mm yr⁻¹, locally with values up to 2.0 mm yr⁻¹. In light of virtually inactive border faults of the NKR, we show that extension is focused in the region of the active volcano-tectonic axis in the inner graben, thus highlighting the maturing of continental rifting in the NKR.
The phenomenon of focused extension is further investigated with a structural analysis of the youngest volcanic manifestations of the Kenya Rift, their relationship with extensional structures, and their overprint by Holocene faulting. In this context I analyzed the fault characteristics at the ~36 ka old Menengai Caldera and adjacent areas in the Central Kenya Rift using detailed field mapping and a structure-from-motion-based DEM generated from UAV data. In general, the Holocene intra-rift normal faults are dip-slip faults which strike NNE and thus reflect the present-day tectonic stress field; however, inside Menengai caldera persistent magmatic activity and magmatic resurgence overprints these young structures significantly. The caldera is located at the center of an actively extending rift segment and this and the other volcanic edifices of the Kenya Rift may constitute nucleation points of faulting an magmatic extensional processes that ultimately lead into a future stage of magma-assisted rifting.
When viewed at the scale of the entire Kenya Rift the protracted normal faulting in this region compartmentalizes the larger rift depressions, and influences the sedimentology and the hydrology of the intra-rift basins at a scale of less than 100 km. In the present day, most of the fault-bounded sub-basins of the Kenya Rift are hydrologically isolated due to this combination of faulting and magmatic activity that has generated efficient hydrological barriers that maintain these basins as semi-independent geomorphic entities. This isolation, however, was overcome during wetter climatic conditions during the past when the basins were transiently connected. I therefore also investigated the hydrological connectivity of the rift basins during the African Humid Period of the early Holocene, when climate was wetter. With the help of DEM analysis, lake-highstand indicators, radiocarbon dating, and a review of the fossil record, two lake-river-cascades could be identified: one directed southward, and one directed northward. Both cascades connected presently isolated rift basins during the early Holocene via spillovers of lakes and incised river gorges. This hydrological connection fostered the dispersal of aquatic faunas along the rift, and in addition, the water divide between the two river systems represented the only terrestrial dispersal corridor across the Kenya Rift. The reconstruction explains isolated distributions of Nilotic fish species in Kenya Rift lakes and of Guineo-Congolian mammal species in forests east of the Kenya Rift. On longer timescales, repeated episodes of connectivity and isolation must have occurred. To address this problem I participated in research to analyze a sediment drill core from the Koora basin of the Southern Kenya Rift, which provides a paleo-environmental record of the last 1 Ma. Based on this record it can be concluded that at ~400 ka relatively stable environmental conditions were disrupted by tectonic, hydrological, and ecological changes, resulting in increasingly large and frequent fluctuations in water availability, grassland communities, and woody plant cover. The major environmental shifts reflected in the drill core data coincide with phases where volcano-tectonic activity affected the basin. This thesis therefore shows how protracted extensional tectonic processes and the resulting geomorphologic conditions can affect the hydrology, the paleo-environment and the biodiversity of extensional zones in Kenya and elsewhere.
En el presente trabajo se realizó una investigación multidisciplinaria combinando métodos de geomorfología tectónica con estudios geofisicos y estructurales, focalizados principalmente en la caracterización neotectónica de ambos faldeos de la sierra de La Candelaria y del extremo sur de la cuenca de Metán. La zona de estudio se encuentra ubicada en la región limítrofe entre las provincias de Salta y Tucumán y pertenece a la provincia geológica del Sistema Santa Bárbara.
El principal objetivo consistió en contextualizar las evidencias de actividad tectónica cuaternaria de la región mediante la propuesta de un modelo estructural novedoso, con el propósito de incrementar la información disponible sobre estructuras neotectónicas y su potencial sismogénico. Con este fin, se aplicaron e integraron diversas técnicas tales como la interpretación de líneas sísmicas de reflexión, construcción de secciones estructurales balanceadas, y métodos geofísicos someros, para constatar el comportamiento en profundidad tanto de las estructuras geológicas identificadas en superficie como de las posibles fallas ciegas corticales involucradas.
En primer lugar, se realizó un relevamiento regional del área de estudio empleando imágenes satelitales multiespectrales LANDSAT y SENTINEL 2, que permitieron reconocer diferentes niveles de abanicos aluviales y terrazas fluviales cuaternarios. Mediante la determinación de diferentes indicadores morfométricos en modelos de elevación digital (MED), junto con observaciones de campo, fue posible identificar evidencias de deformación sobre dichos niveles cuaternarios que han sido relacionadas genéticamente con cuatro fallas neotectónicas. Tres de ellas (fallas Arias, El Quemado y Copo Quile) fueron seleccionadas para efectuar estudios de mayor detalle por medio de la aplicación de métodos de geofísica somera (tomografía eléctrica resistiva (ERT) y tomografía sísmica de refracción Sísmica (SRT)), que permitieron corroborar su existencia en profundidad, realizar inferencias geométricas y cinemáticas, y estimar la magnitud de la deformación reciente. Las fallas Arias y El Quemado fueron interpretadas como fallas inversas relacionadas con deslizamiento flexural interstratal, mientras que la falla Copo Quile se interpretó como una falla inversa ciega de bajo ángulo.También se realizó una interpretación conjunta de líneas sísmicas de reflexión y pozos exploratorios pertenecientes a áreas hidrocarburíferas de las cuencas de Choromoro y Metán con el fin de contextualizar las principales estructuras reconocidas en el marco estratigráfico y tectónico regional. Toda la información fue integrada en una sección estructural balanceada mediante técnicas de modelado cinemático. Dicho modelo permite inferir que la deformación cuaternaria reconocida está relacionada al desplazamiento del basamento a lo largo de un corrimiento ciego, responsable del levantamiento de la sierra de La Candelaria y el cerr Cantero. Asimismo, el modelo cinemático permite interpretar la ubicación aproximada de los principales niveles de despegue que controlan el estilo de deformación. El nivel de despegue más somero, que controla la deformación de la cobertura sedimentaria se encuentra a 4 km de profundidad, a 21 km se estima la presencia de otra zona de cizalla subhorizontal dentro del basamento.
Finalmente, a partir de la integración de todos los resultados obtenidos, se evaluó el potencial sismogénico de las fallas en la zona de estudio. Las fallas de primer orden que controlan la deformación en la zona son las responsables de los grandes terremotos. Mientras, las fallas Cuaternarias flexodeslizantes e inversas afectan solamente a la cobertura sedimentaria y serían estructuras de segundo orden que acomodan la deformación y fueron activadas durante el cuaternario con movimientos asísmicos y/o sísmicos de muy baja magnitud.
Estos resultados permiten inferir que el corrimiento La Candelaria constituye una fuente sismogénica potencial de importancia para la región, donde se ubican numerosas poblaciones y obras civiles de envergadura. Por otra parte, la sección estructural balanceada implica la presencia de otras fallas ciegas de distinto orden de magnitud que podrían ser posibles fuentes sismogénicas profundas adicionales, marcando la necesidad de continuar con el desarrollo de este tipo de estudios en esta región tectónicamente activa.
Anthropogenic climate change alters the hydrological cycle. While certain areas experience more intense precipitation events, others will experience droughts and increased evaporation, affecting water storage in long-term reservoirs, groundwater, snow, and glaciers. High elevation environments are especially vulnerable to climate change, which will impact the water supply for people living downstream. The Himalaya has been identified as a particularly vulnerable system, with nearly one billion people depending on the runoff in this system as their main water resource. As such, a more refined understanding of spatial and temporal changes in the water cycle in high altitude systems is essential to assess variations in water budgets under different climate change scenarios.
However, not only anthropogenic influences have an impact on the hydrological cycle, but changes to the hydrological cycle can occur over geological timescales, which are connected to the interplay between orogenic uplift and climate change. However, their temporal evolution and causes are often difficult to constrain. Using proxies that reflect hydrological changes with an increase in elevation, we can unravel the history of orogenic uplift in mountain ranges and its effect on the climate.
In this thesis, stable isotope ratios (expressed as δ2H and δ18O values) of meteoric waters and organic material are combined as tracers of atmospheric and hydrologic processes with remote sensing products to better understand water sources in the Himalayas. In addition, the record of modern climatological conditions based on the compound specific stable isotopes of leaf waxes (δ2Hwax) and brGDGTs (branched Glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers) in modern soils in four Himalayan river catchments was assessed as proxies of the paleoclimate and (paleo-) elevation. Ultimately, hydrological variations over geological timescales were examined using δ13C and δ18O values of soil carbonates and bulk organic matter originating from sedimentological sections from the pre-Siwalik and Siwalik groups to track the response of vegetation and monsoon intensity and seasonality on a timescale of 20 Myr.
I find that Rayleigh distillation, with an ISM moisture source, mainly controls the isotopic composition of surface waters in the studied Himalayan catchments. An increase in d-excess in the spring, verified by remote sensing data products, shows the significant impact of runoff from snow-covered and glaciated areas on the surface water isotopic values in the timeseries.
In addition, I show that biomarker records such as brGDGTs and δ2Hwax have the potential to record (paleo-) elevation by yielding a significant correlation with the temperature and surface water δ2H values, respectively, as well as with elevation. Comparing the elevation inferred from both brGDGT and δ2Hwax, large differences were found in arid sections of the elevation transects due to an additional effect of evapotranspiration on δ2Hwax. A combined study of these proxies can improve paleoelevation estimates and provide recommendations based on the results found in this study.
Ultimately, I infer that the expansion of C4 vegetation between 20 and 1 Myr was not solely dependent on atmospheric pCO2, but also on regional changes in aridity and seasonality from to the stable isotopic signature of the two sedimentary sections in the Himalaya (east and west).
This thesis shows that the stable isotope chemistry of surface waters can be applied as a tool to monitor the changing Himalayan water budget under projected increasing temperatures. Minimizing the uncertainties associated with the paleo-elevation reconstructions were assessed by the combination of organic proxies (δ2Hwax and brGDGTs) in Himalayan soil. Stable isotope ratios in bulk soil and soil carbonates showed the evolution of vegetation influenced by the monsoon during the late Miocene, proving that these proxies can be used to record monsoon intensity, seasonality, and the response of vegetation. In conclusion, the use of organic proxies and stable isotope chemistry in the Himalayas has proven to successfully record changes in climate with increasing elevation. The combination of δ2Hwax and brGDGTs as a new proxy provides a more refined understanding of (paleo-)elevation and the influence of climate.
The Southern Central Andes (33°-36°S) are an excellent natural laboratory to study orogenic deformation processes, where boundary conditions, such as the geometry of the subducted plate, impose an important control on the evolution of the orogen. On the other hand, the South American plate presents a series of heterogeneities that additionally impart control on the mode of deformation. This thesis aims to test the control of this last factor over the construction of the Cenozoic Andean orogenic system.
From the integration of surface and subsurface information in the southern area (34-36°S), the evolution of Andean deformation over the steeply dipping subduction segment was studied. A structural model was developed evaluating the stress state from the Miocene to the present-day and its influence in the migration of magmatic fluids and hydrocarbons. Based on these data, together with the data generated by other researchers in the northern zone of the study area (33-34°S), geodynamic numerical modeling was performed to test the hypothesis of the decisive role of upper-plate heterogeneities in the Andean evolution. Geodynamic codes (LAPEX-2D and ASPECT) which simulate the behavior of materials with elasto-visco-plastic rheologies under deformation, were used. The model results suggest that upper-plate contractional deformation is significantly controlled by the strength of the lithosphere, which is defined by the composition of the upper and lower crust, and by the proportion of lithospheric mantle, which in turn is determined by previous tectonic events. In addition, the previous regional tectono-magmatic events also defined the composition of the crust and its geometry, which is another factor that controls the localization of deformation. Accordingly, with more felsic lower crustal composition, the deformation follows a pure-shear mode, while more mafic compositions induce a simple-shear deformation mode. On the other hand, it was observed that initial lithospheric thickness may fundamentally control the location of deformation, with zones characterized by thin lithosphere are prone to concentrate it. Finally, it was found that an asymmetric lithosphere-astenosphere boundary resulting from corner flow in the mantle wedge of the eastward-directed subduction zone tends to generate east-vergent detachments.
This dissertation was carried out as part of the international and interdisciplinary graduate school StRATEGy. This group has set itself the goal of investigating geological processes that take place on different temporal and spatial scales and have shaped the southern central Andes. This study focuses on claystones and carbonates of the Yacoraite Fm. that were deposited between Maastricht and Dan in the Cretaceous Salta Rift Basin. The former rift basin is located in northwest Argentina and is divided into the sub-basins Tres Cruces, Metán-Alemanía and Lomas de Olmedo. The overall motivation for this study was to gain new knowledge about the evolution of marine and lacustrine conditions during the Yacoraite Fm. Deposit in the Tres Cruces and Metán-Alemanía sub-basins. Other important aspects that were examined within the scope of this dissertation are the conversion of organic matter from Yacoraite Fm. into oil and its genetic relationship to selected oils produced and natural oil spills. The results of my study show that the Yacoraite Fm. began to be deposited under marine conditions and that a lacustrine environment developed by the end of the deposition in the Tres Cruces and Metán-Alemanía Basins. In general, the kerogen of Yacoraite Fm. consists mainly of the kerogen types II, III and II / III mixtures. Kerogen type III is mainly found in samples from the Yacoraite Fm., whose TOC values are low. Due to the adsorption of hydrocarbons on the mineral surfaces (mineral matrix effect), the content of type III kerogen with Rock-Eval pyrolysis in these samples could be overestimated. Investigations using organic petrography show that the organic particles of Yacoraite Fm. mainly consist of alginites and some vitrinite-like particles. The pyrolysis GC of the rock samples showed that the Yacoraite Fm. generates low-sulfur oils with a predominantly low-wax, paraffinic-naphthenic-aromatic composition and paraffinic wax-rich oils. Small proportions of paraffinic, low-wax oils and a gas condensate-generating facies are also predicted. Here, too, mineral matrix effects were taken into account, which can lead to a quantitative overestimation of the gas-forming character.
The results of an additional 1D tank modeling carried out show that the beginning (10% TR) of the oil genesis took place between ≈10 Ma and ≈4 Ma. Most of the oil (from ≈50% to 65%) was generated prior to the development of structural traps formed during the Plio-Pleistocene Diaguita deformation phase. Only ≈10% of the total oil generated was formed and potentially trapped after the formation of structural traps. Important factors in the risk assessment of this petroleum system, which can determine the small amounts of generated and migrated oil, are the generally low TOC contents and the variable thickness of the Yacoraite Fm. Additional risks are associated with a low density of information about potentially existing reservoir structures and the quality of the overburden.
Forming as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates, the Alpine orogen exhibits significant lithospheric heterogeneity due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited features from preceeding orogenies. This implies that the thermal and rheological configuration of the lithosphere also varies significantly throughout the region. Lithology and temperature/pressure conditions exert a first order control on rock strength, principally via thermally activated creep deformation and on the distribution at depth of the brittle-ductile transition zone, which can be regarded as the lower bound to the seismogenic zone. Therefore, they influence the spatial distribution of seismicity within a lithospheric plate. In light of this, accurately constrained geophysical models of the heterogeneous Alpine lithospheric configuration, are crucial in describing regional deformation patterns. However, despite the amount of research focussing on the area, different hypotheses still exist regarding the present-day lithospheric state and how it might relate to the present-day seismicity distribution.
This dissertaion seeks to constrain the Alpine lithospheric configuration through a fully 3D integrated modelling workflow, that utilises multiple geophysical techniques and integrates from all available data sources. The aim is therefore to shed light on how lithospheric heterogeneity may play a role in influencing the heterogeneous patterns of seismicity distribution observed within the region. This was accomplished through the generation of: (i) 3D seismically constrained, structural and density models of the lithosphere, that were adjusted to match the observed gravity field; (ii) 3D models of the lithospheric steady state thermal field, that were adjusted to match observed wellbore temperatures; and (iii) 3D rheological models of long term lithospheric strength, with the results of each step used as input for the following steps.
Results indicate that the highest strength within the crust (~ 1 GPa) and upper mantle (> 2 GPa), are shown to occur at temperatures characteristic for specific phase transitions (more felsic crust: 200 – 400 °C; more mafic crust and upper lithospheric mantle: ~600 °C) with almost all seismicity occurring in these regions. However, inherited lithospheric heterogeneity was found to significantly influence this, with seismicity in the thinner and more mafic Adriatic crust (~22.5 km, 2800 kg m−3, 1.30E-06 W m-3) occuring to higher temperatures (~600 °C) than in the thicker and more felsic European crust (~27.5 km, 2750 kg m−3, 1.3–2.6E-06 W m-3, ~450 °C). Correlation between seismicity in the orogen forelands and lithospheric strength, also show different trends, reflecting their different tectonic settings. As such, events in the plate boundary setting of the southern foreland correlate with the integrated lithospheric strength, occurring mainly in the weaker lithosphere surrounding the strong Adriatic indenter. Events in the intraplate setting of the northern foreland, instead correlate with crustal strength, mainly occurring in the weaker and warmer crust beneath the Upper Rhine Graben.
Therefore, not only do the findings presented in this work represent a state of the art understanding of the lithospheric configuration beneath the Alps and their forelands, but also a significant improvement on the features known to significantly influence the occurrence of seismicity within the region. This highlights the importance of considering lithospheric state in regards to explaining observed patterns of deformation.
Silicate melts are major components of the Earth’s interior and as such they make an essential contribution in igneous processes, in the dynamics of the solid Earth and the chemical development of the entire Earth. Macroscopic physical and chemical properties such as density, compressibility, viscosity, degree of polymerization etc. are determined by the atomic structure of the melt. Depending on the pressure, but also on the temperature and the chemical composition, silicate melts show different structural properties. These properties are best described by the local coordination environment, i.e. symmetry and number of neighbors (coordination number) of an atom, as well as the distance between the central atom and its neighbors (inter-atomic distance). With increasing pressure and temperature, i.e. with increasing depth in the Earth, the density of the melt increases, which can lead to changes in coordination number and distances. If the coordination number remains the same, the distance usually decreases. If the coordination number increases, the distance can increase. These general trends can, however, vary greatly, which can be attributed in particular to the chemical composition.
Due to the fact that natural melts of the deep earth are not accessible to direct investigations, in order to understand their properties under the relevant conditions, extensive experimental and theoretical investigations have been carried out so far. This has often been studied using the example of amorphous samples of the end-members SiO2 and GeO2 , with the latter serving as a structural and chemical analog model to SiO2. Commonly, the experiments were carried out at high pressure and at room temperature. Natural melts are chemically much more complex than the simple end-member SiO2 and GeO2, so that observations made on them may lead to incorrect compression models. Furthermore, the investigations on glasses at room temperature can show potentially strong deviations from the properties of melts under natural thermodynamic conditions.
The aim of this thesis was to explain the influence of the composition and the temperature on the structural properties of the melts at high pressures. To understand this, we studied complex alumino-germanate and alumino-silicate glasses. More precisely, we studied synthetic glasses that have a composition like the mineral albite and like a mixture of albite-diopside at the eutectic point. The albite glass is structurally similar to a simplified granitic melt, while the albite-diopside glass simulates a simplified basaltic melt. To study the local coordination environment of the elements, we used X-ray absorption spectroscopy in combination with a diamond anvil cell. Because the diamonds have a high absorbance for X-rays with energies below 10 keV, the direct investigation of the geologically relevant elements such as Si, Al, Ca, Mg etc. with this spectroscopic probe technique in combination with a diamond anvil cell is not possible. Therefore the glasses were doped with Ge and Sr. These elements serve partially or fully as substitutes for important major elements. In this sense, Ge serves as an a substitute for Si and other network formers, while Sr replaces network modifiers such as Ca, Na, Mg etc.,
as well as other cations with a large ionic radius.
In the first step we studied the Ge K-edge in Ge-Albit-glass, NaAlGe3O8, at room temperature up to 131 GPa. This glass has a higher chemical complexity than SiO2 and GeO2, but it is still fully polymerized. The differences in the compression mechanism between this glass and the simple oxides can clearly be attributed to higher chemical complexity. The albite and albite-diopside compositions partially doped with Ge and Sr were probed at room temperature for Ge up to 164 GPa and for Sr up to 42 GPa. While the albite glass is nominally fully polymerized like NaAlGe3O8, the albite-diopside glass is partially depolymerized. The results show that structural changes take place in all three glasses in the first 25 to a maximum of 30 GPa, with both Ge and Sr reaching the maximum coordination number 6 and ∼9, respectively. At higher pressures, only isostructural shrinkage of the coordination polyhedra takes place in the glasses. The most important finding of the high pressure studies on the alumino-silicate and alumino-germanate glasses is that in these complex glasses the polyhedra show a much higher compressibility than what can be observed in the end-members. This is shown in particular by the strong shortening of the Ge-O distances in the amorphous NaAlGe3O8 and albite-diopside glass at pressures above 30 GPa.
In addition to the effects of the composition on the compaction process, we investigated the influence of temperature on the structural changes. To do this, we probed the albite-diopside glass, as it is chemically most similar to the melts in the lower mantle. We studied the Ge K edge of the sample with a resistively heated and a laser-heated diamond anvil cell, for a pressure range of up to 48 GPa and a temperature range of up to 5000 K. High temperatures at which the sample is liquid and that are relevant for the Earth mantle, have a significant impact on the structural transformation, with a shift of approx. 30% to significantly lower pressures, compared to the glasses at room temperature and below 1000 K.
The results of this thesis represent an important contribution to the understanding of the properties of melts at conditions of the lower mantle. In the context of the discussion about the existence and origin of ultra-dense silicate melts at the core-mantle boundary, these investigations show that the higher density compared to the surrounding material cannot be explained by only structural features, but by a distinct chemical composition. The results also suggest that only very low solubilities of noble gases are to be expected for melts in the lower mantle, so that the structural properties clearly influence the overall budget and transport of noble gases in the Earth’s mantle.
Geochemical processes such as mineral dissolution and precipitation alter the microstructure of rocks, and thereby affect their hydraulic and mechanical behaviour. Quantifying these property changes and considering them in reservoir simulations is essential for a sustainable utilisation of the geological subsurface. Due to the lack of alternatives, analytical methods and empirical relations are currently applied to estimate evolving hydraulic and mechanical rock properties associated with chemical reactions. However, the predictive capabilities of analytical approaches remain limited, since they assume idealised microstructures, and thus are not able to reflect property evolution for dynamic processes. Hence, aim of the present thesis is to improve the prediction of permeability and stiffness changes resulting from pore space alterations of reservoir sandstones.
A detailed representation of rock microstructure, including the morphology and connectivity of pores, is essential to accurately determine physical rock properties. For that purpose, three-dimensional pore-scale models of typical reservoir sandstones, obtained from highly resolved micro-computed tomography (micro-CT), are used to numerically calculate permeability and stiffness. In order to adequately depict characteristic distributions of secondary minerals, the virtual samples are systematically altered and resulting trends among the geometric, hydraulic, and mechanical rock properties are quantified. It is demonstrated that the geochemical reaction regime controls the location of mineral precipitation within the pore space, and thereby crucially affects the permeability evolution. This emphasises the requirement of determining distinctive porosity-permeability relationships
by means of digital pore-scale models. By contrast, a substantial impact of spatial alterations patterns on the stiffness evolution of reservoir sandstones are only observed in case of certain microstructures, such as highly porous granular rocks or sandstones comprising framework-supporting cementations. In order to construct synthetic granular samples a process-based approach is proposed including grain deposition and diagenetic cementation. It is demonstrated that the generated samples reliably represent the microstructural complexity of natural sandstones. Thereby, general limitations of imaging techniques can be overcome and various realisations of granular rocks can be flexibly produced. These can be further altered by virtual experiments, offering a fast and cost-effective way to examine the impact of precipitation, dissolution or fracturing on various petrophysical correlations.
The presented research work provides methodological principles to quantify trends in permeability and stiffness resulting from geochemical processes. The calculated physical property relations are directly linked to pore-scale alterations, and thus have a higher accuracy than commonly applied analytical approaches. This will considerably improve the predictive capabilities of reservoir models, and is further relevant to assess and reduce potential risks, such as productivity or injectivity losses as well as reservoir compaction or fault reactivation. Hence, the proposed method is of paramount importance for a wide range of natural and engineered subsurface applications, including geothermal energy systems, hydrocarbon reservoirs, CO2 and energy storage as well as hydrothermal deposit exploration.
Fluids in the Earth's crust can move by creating and flowing through fractures, in a process called `hydraulic fracturing’. The tip-line of such fluid-filled fractures grows at locations where stress is larger than the strength of the rock. Where the tip stress vanishes, the fracture closes and the fluid-front retreats. If stress gradients exist on the fracture's walls, induced by fluid/rock density contrasts or topographic stresses, this results in an asymmetric shape and growth of the fracture, allowing for the contained batch of fluid to propagate through the crust.
The state-of-the-art analytical and numerical methods to simulate fluid-filled fracture propagation are two-dimensional (2D). In this work I extend these to three dimensions (3D). In my analytical method, I approximate the propagating 3D fracture as a penny-shaped crack that is influenced by both an internal pressure and stress gradients. In addition, I develop a numerical method to model propagation where curved fractures can be simulated as a mesh of triangular dislocations, with the displacement of faces computed using the displacement discontinuity method. I devise a rapid technique to approximate stress intensity and use this to calculate the advance of the tip-line. My 3D models can be applied to arbitrary stresses, topographic and crack shapes, whilst retaining short computation times.
I cross-validate my analytical and numerical methods and apply them to various natural and man-made settings, to gain additional insights into the movements of hydraulic fractures such as magmatic dikes and fluid injections in rock. In particular, I calculate the `volumetric tipping point’, which once exceeded allows a fluid-filled fracture to propagate in a `self-sustaining’ manner. I discuss implications this has for hydro-fracturing in industrial operations. I also present two studies combining physical models that define fluid-filled fracture trajectories and Bayesian statistical techniques. In these studies I show that the stress history of the volcanic edifice defines the location of eruptive vents at volcanoes. Retrieval of the ratio between topographic to remote stresses allows for forecasting of probable future vent locations. Finally, I address the mechanics of 3D propagating dykes and sills in volcanic regions. I focus on Sierra Negra volcano in the Gal\'apagos islands, where in 2018, a large sill propagated with an extremely curved trajectory. Using a 3D analysis, I find that shallow horizontal intrusions are highly sensitive to topographic and buoyancy stress gradients, as well as the effects of the free surface.
The Central Andes region in South America is characterized by a complex and heterogeneous deformation system. Recorded seismic activity and mapped neotectonic structures indicate that most of the intraplate deformation is located along the margins of the orogen, in the transitions to the foreland and the forearc. Furthermore, the actively deforming provinces of the foreland exhibit distinct deformation styles that vary along strike, as well as characteristic distributions of seismicity with depth. The style of deformation transitions from thin-skinned in the north to thick-skinned in the south, and the thickness of the seismogenic layer increases to the south. Based on geological/geophysical observations and numerical modelling, the most commonly invoked causes for the observed heterogeneity are the variations in sediment thickness and composition, the presence of inherited structures, and changes in the dip of the subducting Nazca plate. However, there are still no comprehensive investigations on the relationship between the lithospheric composition of the Central Andes, its rheological state and the observed deformation processes. The central aim of this dissertation is therefore to explore the link between the nature of the lithosphere in the region and the location of active deformation. The study of the lithospheric composition by means of independent-data integration establishes a strong base to assess the thermal and rheological state of the Central Andes and its adjacent lowlands, which alternatively provide new foundations to understand the complex deformation of the region. In this line, the general workflow of the dissertation consists in the construction of a 3D data-derived and gravity-constrained density model of the Central Andean lithosphere, followed by the simulation of the steady-state conductive thermal field and the calculation of strength distribution. Additionally, the dynamic response of the orogen-foreland system to intraplate compression is evaluated by means of 3D geodynamic modelling.
The results of the modelling approach suggest that the inherited heterogeneous composition of the lithosphere controls the present-day thermal and rheological state of the Central Andes, which in turn influence the location and depth of active deformation processes. Most of the seismic activity and neo--tectonic structures are spatially correlated to regions of modelled high strength gradients, in the transition from the felsic, hot and weak orogenic lithosphere to the more mafic, cooler and stronger lithosphere beneath the forearc and the foreland. Moreover, the results of the dynamic simulation show a strong localization of deviatoric strain rate second invariants in the same region suggesting that shortening is accommodated at the transition zones between weak and strong domains. The vertical distribution of seismic activity appears to be influenced by the rheological state of the lithosphere as well. The depth at which the frequency distribution of hypocenters starts to decrease in the different morphotectonic units correlates with the position of the modelled brittle-ductile transitions; accordingly, a fraction of the seismic activity is located within the ductile part of the crust. An exhaustive analysis shows that practically all the seismicity in the region is restricted above the 600°C isotherm, in coincidence with the upper temperature limit for brittle behavior of olivine. Therefore, the occurrence of earthquakes below the modelled brittle-ductile could be explained by the presence of strong residual mafic rocks from past tectonic events. Another potential cause of deep earthquakes is the existence of inherited shear zones in which brittle behavior is favored through a decrease in the friction coefficient. This hypothesis is particularly suitable for the broken foreland provinces of the Santa Barbara System and the Pampean Ranges, where geological studies indicate successive reactivation of structures through time. Particularly in the Santa Barbara System, the results indicate that both mafic rocks and a reduction in friction are required to account for the observed deep seismic events.
We developed an orbital tuned age model for the composite Chew Bahir sediment core, obtained from the Chew Bahir basin (CHB), southern Ethiopia. To account for the effects of sedimentation rate changes on the spectral expression of the orbital cycles we developed a new method: the Multi-band Wavelet Age modeling technique (MUBAWA). By using a Continuous Wavelet Transformation, we were able to track frequency shifts that resulted from changing sedimentation rates and thus calculated tuned age model encompassing the last 620 kyrs. The results show a good agreement with the directly dated age model that is available from the dating of volcanic ashes. Then we used the XRF data from CHB and developed a new and robust humid-arid index of east African climate during the last 620 kyrs. To disentangle the relationship of the selected elements we performed a principal component analysis (PCA). In a following step we applied a continuous wavelet transformation on the PC1, using the directly dated age model. The resulting wavelet power spectrum, unlike a normal power spectrum, displays the occurrence of cycles/frequencies in time. The results highlight that the precession cycles are most dominantly expressed under the 400 kyrs eccentricity maximum whereas weakly expressed during eccentricity minimum. This suggests that insolation is a key driver of the climatic variability observed at CHB throughout the last 620 kyrs. In addition, the prevalence of half-precession and obliquity signals was documented. The latter is attributed to the inter-tropical insolation gradient and not interpreted as an imprint of high latitudes forcing on climatic changes in the tropics. In addition, a windowed analysis of variability was used to detect changes in variance over time and showed that strong climate variability occurred especially along the transition from a dominant insolation-controlled humid climate background state towards a predominantly dry and less-insolation controlled climate. The last chapter dealt with non-linear aspects of climate changes represented by the sediments of the CHB. We use recurrence quantification analysis to detect non-linear changes within the potassium concentration of Chew Bahir sediment cores during the last 620 kyrs. The concentration of potassium in the sediments of the lake is subject to geochemical processes related to the evaporation rate of the lake water at the time of deposition. Based on recurrence analysis, two types of variabilities could be distinguished. Type 1 represents slow variations within the precession period bandwidth of 20 kyrs and a tendency towards extreme climatic events whereas type 2 represents fast, highly variable climatic transitions between wet and dry climate states. While type 1 variability is linked to eccentricity maxima, type 2 variability occurs during the 400 kyrs eccentricity minimum. The climate history presented here shows that during high eccentricity a strongly insolation-driven climate system prevailed, whereas during low eccentricity the climate was more strongly affected by short-term variability changes. The short-term environmental changes, reflected in the increased variability might have influenced the evolution, technological advances and expansion of early modern humans who lived in this region. In the Olorgesaille Basin the temporal changes in the occurrence of stone tools, which bracket the transition from Acheulean to Middle Stone Age (MSA) technologies at between 499–320 kyrs, could potentially correlate to the marked transition from a rather stable climate with less variability to a climate with increased variability in the CHB. We conclude that populations of early anatomically modern humans are more likely to have experienced climatic stress during episodes of low eccentricity, associated with dry and high variability climate conditions, which may have led to technological innovation, such as the transition from the Acheulean to the Middle Stone Age.
Subsea permafrost is perennially cryotic earth material that lies offshore. Most submarine permafrost is relict terrestrial permafrost beneath the Arctic shelf seas, was inundated after the last glaciation, and has been warming and thawing ever since. It is a reservoir and confining layer for gas hydrates and has the potential to release greenhouse gases and affect global climate change. Furthermore, subsea permafrost thaw destabilizes coastal infrastructure. While numerous studies focus on its distribution and rate of thaw over glacial timescales, these studies have not been brought together and examined in their entirety to assess rates of thaw beneath the Arctic Ocean. In addition, there is still a large gap in our understanding of sub-aquatic permafrost processes on finer spatial and temporal scales. The degradation rate of subsea permafrost is influenced by the initial conditions upon submergence. Terrestrial permafrost that has already undergone warming, partial thawing or loss of ground ice may react differently to inundation by seawater compared to previously undisturbed ice-rich permafrost. Heat conduction models are sufficient to model the thaw of thick subsea permafrost from the bottom, but few studies have included salt diffusion for top-down chemical degradation in shallow waters characterized by mean annual cryotic conditions on the seabed. Simulating salt transport is critical for assessing degradation rates for recently inundated permafrost, which may accelerate in response to warming shelf waters, a lengthening open water season, and faster coastal erosion rates. In the nearshore zone, degradation rates are also controlled by seasonal processes like bedfast ice, brine injection, seasonal freezing under floating ice conditions and warm freshwater discharge from large rivers. The interplay of all these variables is complex and needs further research. To fill this knowledge gap, this thesis investigates sub-aquatic permafrost along the southern coast of the Bykovsky Peninsula in eastern Siberia. Sediment cores and ground temperature profiles were collected at a freshwater thermokarst lake and two thermokarst lagoons in 2017. At this site, the coastline is retreating, and seawater is inundating various types of permafrost: sections of ice-rich Pleistocene permafrost (Yedoma) cliffs at the coastline alternate with lagoons and lower elevation previously thawed and refrozen permafrost basins (Alases). Electrical resistivity surveys with floating electrodes were carried out to map ice-bearing permafrost and taliks (unfrozen zones in the permafrost, usually formed beneath lakes) along the diverse coastline and in the lagoons. Combined with the borehole data, the electrical resistivity results permit estimation of contemporary ice-bearing permafrost characteristics, distribution, and occasionally, thickness. To conceptualize possible geomorphological and marine evolutionary pathways to the formation of the observed layering, numerical models were applied. The developed model incorporates salt diffusion and seasonal dynamics at the seabed, including bedfast ice. Even along coastlines with mean annual non-cryotic boundary conditions like the Bykovsky Peninsula, the modelling results show that salt diffusion minimizes seasonal freezing of the seabed, leading to faster degradation rates compared to models without salt diffusion. Seasonal processes are also important for thermokarst lake to lagoon transitions because lagoons can generate cold hypersaline conditions underneath the ice cover. My research suggests that ice-bearing permafrost can form in a coastal lagoon environment, even under floating ice. Alas basins, however, may degrade more than twice as fast as Yedoma permafrost in the first several decades of inundation. In addition to a lower ice content compared to Yedoma permafrost, Alas basins may be pre-conditioned with salt from adjacent lagoons. Considering the widespread distribution of thermokarst in the Arctic, its integration into geophysical models and offshore surveys is important to quantify and understand subsea permafrost degradation and aggradation. Through numerical modelling, fieldwork, and a circum-Arctic review of subsea permafrost literature, this thesis provides new insights into sub-aquatic permafrost evolution in saline coastal environments.
The Arctic environments constitute rich and dynamic ecosystems, dominated by microorganisms extremely well adapted to survive and function under severe conditions. A range of physiological adaptations allow the microbiota in these habitats to withstand low temperatures, low water and nutrient availability, high levels of UV radiation, etc. In addition, other adaptations of clear competitive nature are directed at not only surviving but thriving in these environments, by disrupting the metabolism of neighboring cells and affecting intermicrobial communication. Since Arctic microbes are bioindicators which amplify climate alterations in the environment, the Arctic region presents the opportunity to study local microbiota and carry out research about interesting, potentially virulent phenotypes that could be dispersed into other habitats around the globe as a consequence of accelerating climate change. In this context, exploration of Arctic habitats as well as descriptions of the microbes inhabiting them are abundant but microbial competitive strategies commonly associated with virulence and pathogens are rarely reported. In this project, environmental samples from the Arctic region were collected and microorganisms (bacteria and fungi) were isolated. The clinical relevance of these microorganisms was assessed by observing the following virulence markers: ability to grow at a range of temperatures, expression of antimicrobial resistance and production of hemolysins. The aim of this project is to determine the frequency and relevance of these characteristics in an effort to understand microbial adaptations in habitats threatened by climate change. The isolates obtained and described here were able to grow at a range of temperatures, in some cases more than 30 °C higher than their original isolation temperature. A considerable number of them consistently expressed compounds capable of lysing sheep and bovine erythrocytes on blood agar at different incubation temperatures. Ethanolic extracts of these bacteria were able to cause rapid and complete lysis of erythrocyte suspensions and might even be hemolytic when assayed on human blood. In silico analyses showed a variety of resistance elements, some of them novel, against natural and synthetic antimicrobial compounds. In vitro experiments against a number of antimicrobial compounds showed resistance phenotypes belonging to wild-type populations and some non-wild type which clearly denote human influence in the acquisition of antimicrobial resistance. The results of this project demonstrate the presence of virulence-associated factors expressed by microorganisms of natural, non-clinical environments. This study contains some of the first reports, to the best of our knowledge, of hemolytic microbes isolated from the Arctic region. In addition, it provides additional information about the presence and expression of intrinsic and acquired antimicrobial resistance in environmental isolates, contributing to the understanding of the evolution of relevant pathogenic species and opportunistic pathogens. Finally, this study highlights some of the potential risks associated with changes in the polar regions (habitat melting and destruction, ecosystem transition and re-colonization) as important indirect consequences of global warming and altered climatic conditions around the planet.
This work develops hybrid methods of imaging spectroscopy for open pit mining and examines their feasibility compared with state-of-the-art. The material distribution within a mine face differs in the small scale and within daily assigned extraction segments. These changes can be relevant to subsequent processing steps but are not always visually identifiable prior to the extraction. Misclassifications that cause false allocations of extracted material need to be minimized in order to reduce energy-intensive material re-handling. The use of imaging spectroscopy aspires to the allocation of relevant deposit-specific materials before extraction, and allows for efficient material handling after extraction. The aim of this work is the parameterization of imaging spectroscopy for pit mining applications and the development and evaluation of a workflow for a mine face, ground- based, spectral characterization. In this work, an application-based sensor adaptation is proposed. The sensor complexity is reduced by down-sampling the spectral resolution of the system based on the samples’ spectral characteristics. This was achieved by the evaluation of existing hyperspectral outcrop analysis approaches based on laboratory sample scans from the iron quadrangle in Minas Gerais, Brazil and by the development of a spectral mine face monitoring workflow which was tested for both an operating and an inactive open pit copper mine in the Republic of Cyprus.
The workflow presented here is applied to three regional data sets: 1) Iron ore samples from Brazil, (laboratory); 2) Samples and hyperspectral mine face imagery from the copper-gold-pyrite mine Apliki, Republic of Cyprus (laboratory and mine face data); and 3) Samples and hyperspectral mine face imagery from the copper-gold-pyrite deposit Three Hills, Republic of Cyprus (laboratory and mine face data). The hyperspectral laboratory dataset of fifteen Brazilian iron ore samples was used to evaluate different analysis methods and different sensor models. Nineteen commonly used methods to analyze and map hyperspectral data were compared regarding the methods’ resulting data products and the accuracy of the mapping and the analysis computation time. Four of the evaluated methods were determined for subsequent analyses to determine the best-performing algorithms: The spectral angle mapper (SAM), a support vector machine algorithm (SVM), the binary feature fitting algorithm (BFF) and the EnMap geological mapper (EnGeoMap). Next, commercially available imaging spectroscopy sensors were evaluated for their usability in open pit mining conditions. Step-wise downsampling of the data - the reduction of the number of bands with an increase of each band’s bandwidth - was performed to investigate the possible simplification and ruggedization of a sensor without a quality fall-off of the mapping results. The impact of the atmosphere visible in the spectrum between 1300–2010nm was reduced by excluding the spectral range from the data for mapping. This tested the feasibility of the method under realistic open pit data conditions. Thirteen datasets based on the different, downsampled sensors were analyzed with the four predetermined methods. The optimum sensor for spectral mine face material distinction was determined as a VNIR-SWIR sensor with 40nm bandwidths in the VNIR and 15nm bandwidths in the SWIR spectral range and excluding the atmospherically impacted bands. The Apliki mine sample dataset was used for the application of the found optimal analyses and sensors. Thirty-six samples were analyzed geochemically and mineralogically. The sample spectra were compiled to two spectral libraries, both distinguishing between seven different geochemical-spectral clusters. The reflectance dataset was downsampled to five different sensors. The five different datasets were mapped with the SAM, BFF and SVM method achieving mapping accuracies of 85-72%, 85-76% and 57-46% respectively. One mine face scan of Apliki was used for the application of the developed workflow. The mapping results were validated against the geochemistry and mineralogy of thirty-six documented field sampling points and a zonation map of the mine face which is based on sixty-six samples and field mapping. The mine face was analyzed with SAM and BFF. The analysis maps were visualized on top of a Structure-from-Motion derived 3D model of the open pit. The mapped geological units and zones correlate well with the expected zonation of the mine face. The third set of hyperspectral imagery from Three Hills was available for applying the fully-developed workflow. Geochemical sample analyses and laboratory spectral data of fifteen different samples from the Three Hills mine, Republic of Cyprus, were used to analyse a downsampled mine face scan of the open pit. Here, areas of low, medium and high ore content were identified.
The developed workflow is successfully applied to the open pit mines Apliki and Three Hills and the spectral maps reflect the prevailing geological conditions. This work leads through the acquisition, preparation and processing of imaging spectroscopy data, the optimum choice of analysis methodology, and the utilization of simplified, robust sensors that meet the requirements of open pit mining conditions. It accentuates the importance of a site-specific and deposit-specific spectral library for the mine face analysis and underlines the need for geological and spectral analysis experts to successfully implement imaging spectroscopy in the field of open pit mining.
Flooding is a vast problem in many parts of the world, including Europe. It occurs mainly due to extreme weather conditions (e.g. heavy rainfall and snowmelt) and the consequences of flood events can be devastating. Flood risk is mainly defined as a combination of the probability of an event and its potential adverse impacts. Therefore, it covers three major dynamic components: hazard (physical characteristics of a flood event), exposure (people and their physical environment that being exposed to flood), and vulnerability (the elements at risk). Floods are natural phenomena and cannot be fully prevented. However, their risk can be managed and mitigated. For a sound flood risk management and mitigation, a proper risk assessment is needed. First of all, this is attained by a clear understanding of the flood risk dynamics. For instance, human activity may contribute to an increase in flood risk. Anthropogenic climate change causes higher intensity of rainfall and sea level rise and therefore an increase in scale and frequency of the flood events. On the other hand, inappropriate management of risk and structural protection measures may not be very effective for risk reduction. Additionally, due to the growth of number of assets and people within the flood-prone areas, risk increases. To address these issues, the first objective of this thesis is to perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of changes in each flood risk component on overall risk and further their mutual interactions. A multitude of changes along the risk chain are simulated by regional flood model (RFM) where all processes from atmosphere through catchment and river system to damage mechanisms are taken into consideration. The impacts of changes in risk components are explored by plausible change scenarios for the mesoscale Mulde catchment (sub-basin of the Elbe) in Germany.
A proper risk assessment is ensured by the reasonable representation of the real-world flood event. Traditionally, flood risk is assessed by assuming homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the considered catchment. However, in reality, flood events are spatially heterogeneous and therefore traditional assumption misestimates flood risk especially for large regions. In this thesis, two different studies investigate the importance of spatial dependence in large scale flood risk assessment for different spatial scales. In the first one, the “real” spatial dependence of return period of flood damages is represented by continuous risk modelling approach where spatially coherent patterns of hydrological and meteorological controls (i.e. soil moisture and weather patterns) are included. Further the risk estimations under this modelled dependence assumption are compared with two other assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages: complete dependence (homogeneous return periods) and independence (randomly generated heterogeneous return periods) for the Elbe catchment in Germany. The second study represents the “real” spatial dependence by multivariate dependence models. Similar to the first study, the three different assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages are compared, but at national (United Kingdom and Germany) and continental (Europe) scales. Furthermore, the impacts of the different models, tail dependence, and the structural flood protection level on the flood risk under different spatial dependence assumptions are investigated.
The outcomes of the sensitivity analysis framework suggest that flood risk can vary dramatically as a result of possible change scenarios. The risk components that have not received much attention (e.g. changes in dike systems and in vulnerability) may mask the influence of climate change that is often investigated component.
The results of the spatial dependence research in this thesis further show that the damage under the false assumption of complete dependence is 100 % larger than the damage under the modelled dependence assumption, for the events with return periods greater than approximately 200 years in the Elbe catchment. The complete dependence assumption overestimates the 200-year flood damage, a benchmark indicator for the insurance industry, by 139 %, 188 % and 246 % for the UK, Germany and Europe, respectively. The misestimation of risk under different assumptions can vary from upstream to downstream of the catchment. Besides, tail dependence in the model and flood protection level in the catchments can affect the risk estimation and the differences between different spatial dependence assumptions.
In conclusion, the broader consideration of the risk components, which possibly affect the flood risk in a comprehensive way, and the consideration of the spatial dependence of flood return periods are strongly recommended for a better understanding of flood risk and consequently for a sound flood risk management and mitigation.
The spread of shrubs in Namibian savannas raises questions about the resilience of these ecosystems to global change. This makes it necessary to understand the past dynamics of the vegetation, since there is no consensus on whether shrub encroachment is a new phenomenon, nor on its main drivers. However, a lack of long-term vegetation datasets for the region and the scarcity of suitable palaeoecological archives, makes reconstructing past vegetation and land cover of the savannas a challenge.
To help meet this challenge, this study addresses three main research questions: 1) is pollen analysis a suitable tool to reflect the vegetation change associated with shrub encroachment in savanna environments? 2) Does the current encroached landscape correspond to an alternative stable state of savanna vegetation? 3) To what extent do pollen-based quantitative vegetation reconstructions reflect changes in past land cover?
The research focuses on north-central Namibia, where despite being the region most affected by shrub invasion, particularly since the 21st century, little is known about the dynamics of this phenomenon.
Field-based vegetation data were compared with modern pollen data to assess their correspondence in terms of composition and diversity along precipitation and grazing intensity gradients. In addition, two sediment cores from Lake Otjikoto were analysed to reveal changes in vegetation composition that have occurred in the region over the past 170 years and their possible drivers. For this, a multiproxy approach (fossil pollen, sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA), biomarkers, compound specific carbon (δ13C) and deuterium (δD) isotopes, bulk carbon isotopes (δ13Corg), grain size, geochemical properties) was applied at high taxonomic and temporal resolution. REVEALS modelling of the fossil pollen record from Lake Otjikoto was run to quantitatively reconstruct past vegetation cover. For this, we first made pollen productivity estimates (PPE) of the most relevant savanna taxa in the region using the extended R-value model and two pollen dispersal options (Gaussian plume model and Lagrangian stochastic model). The REVEALS-based vegetation reconstruction was then validated using remote sensing-based regional vegetation data.
The results show that modern pollen reflects the composition of the vegetation well, but diversity less well. Interestingly, precipitation and grazing explain a significant amount of the compositional change in the pollen and vegetation spectra. The multiproxy record shows that a state change from open Combretum woodland to encroached Terminalia shrubland can occur over a century, and that the transition between states spans around 80 years and is characterized by a unique vegetation composition. This transition is supported by gradual environmental changes induced by management (i.e. broad-scale logging for the mining industry, selective grazing and reduced fire activity associated with intensified farming) and related land-use change. Derived environmental changes (i.e. reduced soil moisture, reduced grass cover, changes in species composition and competitiveness, reduced fire intensity) may have affected the resilience of Combretum open woodlands, making them more susceptible to change to an encroached state by stochastic events such as consecutive years of precipitation and drought, and by high concentrations of pCO2. We assume that the resulting encroached state was further stabilized by feedback mechanisms that favour the establishment and competitiveness of woody vegetation.
The REVEALS-based quantitative estimates of plant taxa indicate the predominance of a semi-open landscape throughout the 20th century and a reduction in grass cover below 50% since the 21st century associated with the spread of encroacher woody taxa. Cover estimates show a close match with regional vegetation data, providing support for the vegetation dynamics inferred from multiproxy analyses. Reasonable PPEs were made for all woody taxa, but not for Poaceae.
In conclusion, pollen analysis is a suitable tool to reconstruct past vegetation dynamics in savannas. However, because pollen cannot identify grasses beyond family level, a multiproxy approach, particularly the use of sedaDNA, is required. I was able to separate stable encroached states from mere woodland phases, and could identify drivers and speculate about related feedbacks. In addition, the REVEALS-based quantitative vegetation reconstruction clearly reflects the magnitude of the changes in the vegetation cover that occurred during the last 130 years, despite the limitations of some PPEs.
This research provides new insights into pollen-vegetation relationships in savannas and highlights the importance of multiproxy approaches when reconstructing past vegetation dynamics in semi-arid environments. It also provides the first time series with sufficient taxonomic resolution to show changes in vegetation composition during shrub encroachment, as well as the first quantitative reconstruction of past land cover in the region. These results help to identify the different stages in savanna dynamics and can be used to calibrate predictive models of vegetation change, which are highly relevant to land management.