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Institut
Scaling up CSP
(2023)
Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the few scalable technologies capable of delivering dispatchable renewable power. Therefore, many expect it to shoulder a significant share of system balancing in a renewable electricity future powered by cheap, intermittent PV and wind power: the IEA, for example, projects 73 GW CSP by 2030 and several hundred GW by 2050 in its Net-Zero by 2050 pathway. In this paper, we assess how fast CSP can be expected to scale up and how long time it would take to get new, high-efficiency CSP technologies to market, based on observed trends and historical patterns. We find that to meaningfully contribute to net-zero pathways the CSP sector needs to reach and exceed the maximum historical annual growth rate of 30%/year last seen between 2010-2014 and maintain it for at least two decades. Any CSP deployment in the 2020s will rely mostly on mature existing technologies, namely parabolic trough and molten-salt towers, but likely with adapted business models such as hybrid CSP-PV stations, combining the advantages of higher-cost dispatchable and low-cost intermittent power. New third-generation CSP designs are unlikely to play a role in markets during the 2020s, as they are still at or before the pilot stage and, judging from past pilot-to-market cycles for CSP, they will likely not be ready for market deployment before 2030. CSP can contribute to low-cost zero-emission energy systems by 2050, but to make that happen, at the scale foreseen in current energy models, ambitious technology-specific policy support is necessary, as soon as possible and in several countries.
Thermal energy from concentrating solar thermal technologies (CST) may contribute to decarbonizing applications from heating and cooling, desalination, and power generation to commodities such as aluminium, hydrogen, ammonia or sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). So far, successful commercial-scale CST projects are restricted to solar industrial process heat (SIPH) and concentrating solar power (CSP) generation and, at least for the latter, depend on support from public policies that have been stagnating for years. As they are technologically similar, spillovers between SIPH or CSP and other emerging CST could accelerate commercialization across use cases while maximizing the impact of scarce support. Here, we review the technical potential for cross-fertilization between different CST applications and the ability of the current policy regime to enable this potential. Using working temperature as the key variable, we identify different clusters of current and emerging CST technologies. Low-temperature CST (<400℃) applications for heating, cooling and desalination already profit from the significant progress made in line-focussing CSP over the last 15 years. A newly emerging cluster of high temperature CST (>600℃) for solar chemistry and high-grade process heat has significant leverage for spillovers with point-focussing solar tower third-generation CSP currently under development. For these spillovers to happen, however, CSP policy designs would need to prioritize innovation for high working temperature and encourage modular plant design, by adequately remunerating hybridized plants with heat and power in and outputs that include energy sources beyond CST solar fields. This would enable synergies across applications and scales by incentivizing compatibility of modular CST components in multiple sectors and use cases.
Seasonal forecasts are of great interest in many areas. Knowing the amount of precipitation for the upcoming season in regions of water scarcity would facilitate a better water management. If farmers knew the weather conditions of the upcoming summer at sowing time, they could select those cereal species that are best adapted to these conditions. This would allow farmers to improve the harvest and potentially even reduce the amount of pesticides used. However, the undoubted advantages of seasonal forecasts are often opposed by their high degree of uncertainty. The great challenge of generating seasonal forecasts with lead times of several months mainly originates from the chaotic nature of the earth system. In a chaotic system, even tiny differences in the initial conditions can lead to strong deviations in the system’s state in the long run.
In this dissertation we propose an emergent machine learning approach for seasonal forecasting, called the AnlgModel. The AnlgModel combines the analogue method with myopic feature selection and bootstrapping. To benchmark the abilities of the AnlgModel we apply it to seasonal cyclone activity forecasts in the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific. The AnlgModel demonstrates competitive hindcast skills with two operational forecasts and even outperforms these for long lead times.
In the second chapter we comprehend the forecasting strategy of the Anlg-Model. We thereby analyse the analogue selection process for the 2017 North Atlantic and the 2018 Northwest Pacific seasonal cyclone activity. The analysis shows that those climate indices which are known to influence the seasonal cyclone activity, such as the Niño 3.4 SST, are correctly represented among the selected analogues. Furthermore the selected analogues reflect large-scale climate patterns that were identified by expert reports as being determinative for these particular seasons.
In the third chapter we analyse the features that are used by the AnlgModel for its predictions. We therefore inspect the feature relevance (FR). The FR patterns learned by the AnlgModel show a high congruence with the predictor regions used by the operational forecasts. However, the AnlgModel also discovered new features, such as the SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea during November. This SST pattern exhibits a remarkably high predictive potential for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane activity.
In the final chapter we investigate potential mechanisms, that link two of these regions with high feature relevance to the Atlantic hurricane activity. We mainly focus on ocean surface transport. The ocean surface flow paths are calculated using Lagrangian particle analysis. We demonstrate that the FR patterns in the region of the Canary islands do not correspond with ocean surface transport. It is instead likely that these FR patterns fingerprint a wind transport of latent heat. The second region to be studied is situated in the Gulf of Guinea. Our analysis shows that the FR patterns seen there do fingerprint ocean surface transport. However, our simulations also show that at least one other mechanism is involved in linking the Gulf of Guinea SST anomaly in November to the hurricane activity of the upcoming season.
In this work the AnlgModel does not only demonstrate its outstanding forecast skills but also shows its capabilities as research tool for detecting oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms.
Properties of Arctic aerosol in the transition between Arctic haze to summer season derived by lidar
(2023)
During the Arctic haze period, the Arctic troposphere consists of larger, yet fewer, aerosol particles than during the summer (Tunved et al., 2013; Quinn et al., 2007). Interannual variability (Graßl and Ritter, 2019; Rinke et al., 2004), as well as unknown origins (Stock et al., 2014) and properties of aerosol complicate modeling these annual aerosol cycles. This thesis investigates the modification of the microphysical properties of Arctic aerosols in the transition from Arctic haze to the summer season. Therefore, lidar measurements of Ny-Ålesund from April 2021 to the end of July 2021 are evaluated based on the aerosols’ optical properties. An overview of those properties will be provided. Furthermore, parallel radiosonde data is considered for indication of hygroscopic growth.
The annual aerosol cycle in 2021 differs from expectations based on previous studies from Tunved et al. (2013) and Quinn et al. (2007). Developments of backscatter, extinction, aerosol depolarisation, lidar ratio and color ratio show a return of the Arctic haze in May. The haze had already reduced in April, but regrew afterwards.
The average Arctic aerosol displays hygroscopic behaviour, meaning growth due to water uptake. To determine such a behaviour is generally laborious because various meteorological circumstances need to be considered. Two case studies provide further information on these possible events. In particular, a day with a rare ice cloud and with highly variable water cloud layers is observed.
Supernova remnants are considered to be the primary sources of galactic cosmic rays. These cosmic rays are assumed to be accelerated by the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism, specifically at shocks in the remnants. Particularly in the core-collapse scenario, these supernova remnant shocks expand inside the wind-blown bubbles structured by massive progenitors during their lifetime. Therefore, the complex environment of wind bubbles can influence the particle acceleration and radiation from the remnants. Further, the evolution of massive stars depends on their Zero Age Main Sequence mass, rotation, and metallicity. Consequently, the structures of the wind bubbles generated during the lifetime of massive stars should be considerably different. Hence, the particle acceleration in the core-collapse supernova remnants should vary, not only from the remnants evolving in the uniform environment but also from one another, depending on their progenitor stars.
A core-collapse supernova remnant with a very massive 60 𝑀 ⊙ progenitor star has been considered to study the particle acceleration at the shock considering Bohm-like diffusion. This dissertation demonstrates the modification in particle acceleration and radiation while the remnant propagates through different regions of the wind bubble by impacts from the profiles of gas density, the temperature of the bubble and the magnetic field structure. Subsequently, in this thesis, I discuss the impacts of the non-identical ambient environment of core-collapse supernova remnants on particle spectra and the non-thermal emissions, considering 20 𝑀 ⊙ and 60 𝑀⊙ massive progenitors having different evolutionary tracks. Additionally, I also analyse the effect of cosmic ray streaming instabilities on particle spectra.
To model the particle acceleration in the remnants, I have performed simulations in one-dimensional spherical symmetry using RATPaC code. The transport equation for cosmic rays and magnetic turbulence in test-particle approximation, along with the induction equation for the evolution of the large-scale magnetic field, have been solved simultaneously with the hydrodynamic equations for the expansion of remnants inside the pre-supernova circumstellar medium.
The results from simulations describe that the spectra of accelerated particles in supernova remnants are regulated by density fluctuations, temperature variations, the large-scale magnetic field configuration and scattering turbulence. Although the diffusive shock acceleration mechanism at supernova remnant shock predicts the spectral index of 2 for the accelerated non-thermal particles, I have obtained the particle spectra that deviate from this prediction, in the core-collapse scenario. I have found that the particle spectral index reaches 2.5 for the supernova remnant with 60 𝑀 ⊙ progenitor when the remnant resides inside the shocked wind region of the wind bubble, and this softness persists at later evolutionary stages even with Bohm-like diffusion for accelerated particles. However, the supernova remnant with 20 𝑀 ⊙ progenitor does not demonstrate persistent softness in particle spectra from the influence of the hydrodynamics of the corresponding wind bubble. At later stages of evolution, the particle spectra illustrate softness at higher energies for both remnants as the consequence of the escape of high-energy particles from the remnants while considering the cosmic ray streaming instabilities. Finally, I have probed the emission morphology of remnants that varies depending on the progenitors, particularly in earlier evolutionary stages. This dissertation provides insight into different core-collapse remnants expanding inside wind bubbles, for instance, the calculated gamma-ray spectral index from the supernova remnant with 60 𝑀 ⊙ progenitor at later evolutionary stages is consistent with that of the observed supernova remnants expanding in dense molecular clouds.
This dissertation focuses on the understanding of the optical manipulation of microgels dispersed in aqueous solution of azobenzene containing surfactant. The work consists of three parts where each part is a systematic investigation of the (1) photo-isomerization kinetics of the surfactant in complex with the microgel polymer matrix, (2) light driven diffusiosmosis (LDDO) in microgels and (3) photo-responsivity of microgel on complexation with spiropyran.
The first part comprises three publications where the first one [P1] investigates the photo-isomerization kinetics and corresponding isomer composition at a photo-stationary state of the photo-sensitive surfactant conjugated with charged polymers or micro sized polymer networks to understand the structural response of such photo-sensitive complexes. We report that the photo-isomerization of the azobenzene-containing cationic surfactant is slower in a polymer complex compared to being purely dissolved in an aqueous solution. The surfactant aggregates near the polyelectrolyte chains at concentrations much lower than the bulk critical micelle concentration. This, along with the inhibition of the photo-isomerization kinetics due to steric hindrance within the densely packed aggregates, pushes the isomer-ratio to a higher trans-isomer concentration for all irradiation wavelengths.
The second publication [P2] combines experimental results and non-adiabatic dynamic simulations for the same surfactant molecules embedded in the micelles with absorption spectroscopy measurements of micellar solutions to uncover the reasons responsible for the slowdown in photo induced trans → cis azobenzene isomerization at concentrations higher than the critical micelle concentration (CMC). The simulations reveal a decrease of isomerization quantum yields for molecules inside the micelles and observes a reduction of extinction coefficients upon micellization. These findings explain the deceleration of the trans → cis switching in micelles of the azobenzene-containing surfactants.
Finally, the third publication [P3] focusses on the kinetics of adsorption and desorption of the same surfactant within anionic microgels in the dark and under continuous irradiation. Experimental data demonstrate, that microgels can serve as a selective absorber of the trans isomers. The interaction of the isomers with the gel matrix induces a remotely controllable collapse or swelling on appropriate irradiation wavelengths. Measuring the kinetics of the microgel size response and knowing the exact isomer composition under light exposure, we calculate the adsorption rate of the trans-isomers.
The second part comprises two publications. The first publication [P4] reports on the phenomenon of light-driven diffusioosmotic (DO) long-range attractive and repulsive interactions between micro-sized objects, whose range extends several times the size of microparticles and can be adjusted to point towards or away from the particle by varying irradiation parameters such as intensity or wavelength of light. The phenomenon is fueled by the aforementioned photosensitive surfactant. The complex interaction of dynamic exchange of isomers and photo-isomerization rate yields to relative concentrations gradients of the isomers in the vicinity of micro-sized object inducing a local diffusioosmotic (DO) flow thereby making a surface act as a micropump.
The second publication [P5] exclusively aims the visualization and investigation of the DO flows generated from microgels by using small tracer particles. Similar to micro sized objects, the flow is able to push adjacent tracers over distances several times larger than microgel size. Here we report that the direction and the strength of the l-LDDO depends on the intensity, irradiation wavelength and the amount of surfactant adsorbed by the microgel. For example, the flow pattern around a microgel is directed radially outward and can be maintained quasi-indefinitely under exposure at 455 nm when the trans:cis ratio is 2:1, whereas irradiation at 365 nm, generates a radially transient flow pattern, which inverts at lower intensities.
Lastly, the third part consists of one publication [P6] which, unlike the previous works, reports on the study of the kinetics of photo- and thermo-switching of a new surfactant namely, spiropyran, upon exposure with light of different wavelengths and its interaction with p(NIPAM-AA) microgels. The surfactant being an amphiphile, switches between its ring closed spiropyran (SP) form and ring open merocyanine (MC) form which results in a change in the hydrophilic–hydrophobic balance of the surfactant as MC being a zwitterionic form along with the charged head group, generates three charges on the molecule. Therefore, the MC form of the surfactant is more hydrophilic than in the case of the neutral SP state. Here, we investigate the initial shrinkage of the gel particles via charge compensation on first exposure to SP molecules which results from the complex formation of the molecules with the gel matrix, triggering them to become photo responsive. The size and VPTT of the microgels during irradiation is shown to be a combination of heating up of the solution during light absorption by the surfactant (more pronounced in the case of UV irradiation) and the change in the hydrophobicity of the surfactant.
The Lyman-𝛼 (Ly𝛼) line commonly assists in the detection of high-redshift galaxies, the so-called Lyman-alpha emitters (LAEs). LAEs are useful tools to study the baryonic matter distribution of the high-redshift universe. Exploring their spatial distribution not only reveals the large-scale structure of the universe at early epochs, but it also provides an insight into the early formation and evolution of the galaxies we observe today. Because dark matter halos (DMHs) serve as sites of galaxy formation, the LAE distribution also traces that of the underlying dark matter. However, the details of this relation and their co-evolution over time remain unclear. Moreover, theoretical studies predict that the spatial distribution of LAEs also impacts their own circumgalactic medium (CGM) by influencing their extended Ly𝛼 gaseous halos (LAHs), whose origin is still under investigation. In this thesis, I make several contributions to improve the knowledge on these fields using samples of LAEs observed with the Multi Unit Spectroscopic Explorer (MUSE) at redshifts of 3 < 𝑧 < 6.
The near-Earth space environment is a highly complex system comprised of several regions and particle populations hazardous to satellite operations. The trapped particles in the radiation belts and ring current can cause significant damage to satellites during space weather events, due to deep dielectric and surface charging. Closer to Earth is another important region, the ionosphere, which delays the propagation of radio signals and can adversely affect navigation and positioning. In response to fluctuations in solar and geomagnetic activity, both the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric populations can undergo drastic and sudden changes within minutes to hours, which creates a challenge for predicting their behavior. Given the increasing reliance of our society on satellite technology, improving our understanding and modeling of these populations is a matter of paramount importance.
In recent years, numerous spacecraft have been launched to study the dynamics of particle populations in the near-Earth space, transforming it into a data-rich environment. To extract valuable insights from the abundance of available observations, it is crucial to employ advanced modeling techniques, and machine learning methods are among the most powerful approaches available. This dissertation employs long-term satellite observations to analyze the processes that drive particle dynamics, and builds interdisciplinary links between space physics and machine learning by developing new state-of-the-art models of the inner-magnetospheric and ionospheric particle dynamics.
The first aim of this thesis is to investigate the behavior of electrons in Earth's radiation belts and ring current. Using ~18 years of electron flux observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS), we developed the first machine learning model of hundreds-of-keV electron flux at Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) that is driven solely by solar wind and geomagnetic indices and does not require auxiliary flux measurements as inputs. We then proceeded to analyze the directional distributions of electrons, and for the first time, used Fourier sine series to fit electron pitch angle distributions (PADs) in Earth's inner magnetosphere. We performed a superposed epoch analysis of 129 geomagnetic storms during the Van Allen Probes era and demonstrated that electron PADs have a strong energy-dependent response to geomagnetic activity. Additionally, we showed that the solar wind dynamic pressure could be used as a good predictor of the PAD dynamics. Using the observed dependencies, we created the first PAD model with a continuous dependence on L, magnetic local time (MLT) and activity, and developed two techniques to reconstruct near-equatorial electron flux observations from low-PA data using this model.
The second objective of this thesis is to develop a novel model of the topside ionosphere. To achieve this goal, we collected observations from five of the most widely used ionospheric missions and intercalibrated these data sets. This allowed us to use these data jointly for model development, validation, and comparison with other existing empirical models. We demonstrated, for the first time, that ion density observations by Swarm Langmuir Probes exhibit overestimation (up to ~40-50%) at low and mid-latitudes on the night side, and suggested that the influence of light ions could be a potential cause of this overestimation. To develop the topside model, we used 19 years of radio occultation (RO) electron density profiles, which were fitted with a Chapman function with a linear dependence of scale height on altitude. This approximation yields 4 parameters, namely the peak density and height of the F2-layer and the slope and intercept of the linear scale height trend, which were modeled using feedforward neural networks (NNs). The model was extensively validated against both RO and in-situ observations and was found to outperform the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model by up to an order of magnitude. Our analysis showed that the most substantial deviations of the IRI model from the data occur at altitudes of 100-200 km above the F2-layer peak. The developed NN-based ionospheric model reproduces the effects of various physical mechanisms observed in the topside ionosphere and provides highly accurate electron density predictions.
This dissertation provides an extensive study of geospace dynamics, and the main results of this work contribute to the improvement of models of plasma populations in the near-Earth space environment.