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Aerosol emissions from human activities are extensive and changing rapidly over Asia. Model simulations and satellite observations indicate a dipole pattern in aerosol emissions and loading between South Asia and East Asia, two of the most heavily polluted regions of the world. We examine the previously unexplored diverging trends in the existing dipole pattern of aerosols between East and South Asia using the high quality, two-decade long ground-based time series of observations of aerosol properties from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), from satellites (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)), and from model simulations (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The data cover the period since 2001 for Kanpur (South Asia) and Beijing (East Asia), two locations taken as being broadly representative of the respective regions. Since 2010 a dipole in aerosol optical depth (AOD) is maintained, but the trend is reversed-the decrease in AOD over Beijing (East Asia) is rapid since 2010, being 17% less in current decade compared to first decade of twenty-first century, while the AOD over South Asia increased by 12% during the same period. Furthermore, we find that the aerosol composition is also changing over time. The single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of aerosol's absorption capacity and related to aerosol composition, is slightly higher over Beijing than Kanpur, and has increased from 0.91 in 2002 to 0.93 in 2017 over Beijing and from 0.89 to 0.92 during the same period over Kanpur, confirming that aerosols in this region have on an average become more scattering in nature. These changes have led to a notable decrease in aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rate (HR) over both regions between the two decades, decreasing considerably more over East Asia (- 31%) than over South Asia (- 9%). The annual mean HR is lower now, it is still large (>= 0.6 K per day), which has significant climate implications. The seasonal trends in AOD, SSA and HR are more pronounced than their respective annual trends over both regions. The seasonal trends are caused mainly by the increase/decrease in anthropogenic aerosol emissions (sulfate, black carbon and organic carbon) while the natural aerosols (dust and sea salt) did not change significantly over South and East Asia during the last two decades. The MERRA-2 model is able to simulate the observed trends in AODs well but not the magnitude, while it also did not simulate the SSA values or trends well. These robust findings based on observations of key aerosol parameters and previously unrecognized diverging trends over South and East Asia need to be accounted for in current state-of-the-art climate models to ensure accurate quantification of the complex and evolving impact of aerosols on the regional climate over Asia.
Corona and the climate
(2020)
Compound natural hazards likeEl Ninoevents cause high damage to society, which to manage requires reliable risk assessments. Damage modelling is a prerequisite for quantitative risk estimations, yet many procedures still rely on expert knowledge, and empirical studies investigating damage from compound natural hazards hardly exist. A nationwide building survey in Peru after theEl Ninoevent 2017 - which caused intense rainfall, ponding water, flash floods and landslides - enables us to apply data-mining methods for statistical groundwork, using explanatory features generated from remote sensing products and open data. We separate regions of different dominant characteristics through unsupervised clustering, and investigate feature importance rankings for classifying damage via supervised machine learning. Besides the expected effect of precipitation, the classification algorithms select the topographic wetness index as most important feature, especially in low elevation areas. The slope length and steepness factor ranks high for mountains and canyons. Partial dependence plots further hint at amplified vulnerability in rural areas. An example of an empirical damage probability map, developed with a random forest model, is provided to demonstrate the technical feasibility.
We describe a new, original approach to the modelling of the Earth's magnetic field. The overall objective of this study is to reliably render fast variations of the core field and its secular variation. This method combines a sequential modelling approach, a Kalman filter, and a correlation-based modelling step. Sources that most significantly contribute to the field measured at the surface of the Earth are modelled. Their separation is based on strong prior information on their spatial and temporal behaviours. We obtain a time series of model distributions which display behaviours similar to those of recent models based on more classic approaches, particularly at large temporal and spatial scales. Interesting new features and periodicities are visible in our models at smaller time and spatial scales. An important aspect of our method is to yield reliable error bars for all model parameters. These errors, however, are only as reliable as the description of the different sources and the prior information used are realistic. Finally, we used a slightly different version of our method to produce candidate models for the thirteenth edition of the International Geomagnetic Reference Field.
To construct a coherent multi-modal percept, vertebrate brains extract low-level features (such as spatial and temporal frequencies) from incoming sensory signals. However, because frequency processing is lateralized with the right hemisphere favouring low frequencies while the left favours higher frequencies, this introduces asymmetries between the hemispheres. Here, we describe how this lateralization shapes the development of several cognitive domains, ranging from visuo-spatial and numerical cognition to language, social cognition, and even aesthetic appreciation, and leads to the emergence of asymmetries in behaviour. We discuss the neuropsychological and educational implications of these emergent asymmetries and suggest future research approaches.
Carbon nanodots revised
(2020)
Luminescent compounds obtained from the thermal reaction of citric acid and urea have been studied and utilized in different applications in the past few years. The identified reaction products range from carbon nitrides over graphitic carbon to distinct molecular fluorophores. On the other hand, the solid, non-fluorescent reaction product produced at higher temperatures has been found to be a valuable precursor for the CO2-laser-assisted carbonization reaction in carbon laser-patterning. This work addresses the question of structural identification of both, the fluorescent and non-fluorescent reaction products obtained in the thermal reaction of citric acid and urea. The reaction products produced during autoclave-microwave reactions in the melt were thoroughly investigated as a function of the reaction temperature and the reaction products were subsequently separated by a series of solvent extractions and column chromatography. The evolution of a green molecular fluorophore, namely HPPT, was confirmed and a full characterization study on its structure and photophysical properties was conducted. The additional blue fluorescence is attributed to oligomeric ureas, which was confirmed by complementary optical and structural characterization. These two components form strong hydrogen-bond networks which eventually react to form solid, semi-crystalline particles with a size of similar to 7 nm and an elemental composition of 46% C, 22% N, and 29% O. The structural features and properties of all three main components were investigated in a comprehensive characterization study.
Social epigenomics is a new field of research that studies how the social environment shapes the epigenome and how in turn the epigenome modulates behavior. We focus on describing known gene-environment interactions (GEIs) and epigenetic mechanisms in different mammalian social systems. To illustrate how epigenetic mechanisms integrate GEls, we highlight examples where epigenetic mechanisms are associated with social behaviors and with their maintenance through neuroendocrine, locomotor, and metabolic responses. We discuss future research trajectories and open questions for the emerging field of social epigenomics in nonmodel and naturally occurring social systems. Finally, we outline the technological advances that aid the study of epigenetic mechanisms in the establishment of GEIs and vice versa.
The sensitivity of key hydrologic variables and hydropower generation to climate change in the Lake Malawi and Shire River basins is assessed. The study adapts the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM) which is applied separately in the Upper Lake Malawi and Shire River basins. A particular Lake Malawi model, which focuses on reservoir routing and lake water balance, has been developed and is interlinked between the two basins. Climate change projections from 20 Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) models for Africa based on two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 are used. An annual temperature increase of 1 degrees C decreases mean lake level and outflow by 0.3 m and 17%, respectively, signifying the importance of intensified evaporation for Lake Malawi's water budget. Meanwhile, a +5% (-5%) deviation in annual rainfall changes mean lake level by +0.7 m (-0.6 m). The combined effects of temperature increase and rainfall decrease result in significantly lower flows in the Shire River. The hydrological river regime may change from perennial to seasonal with the combination of annual temperature increase and precipitation decrease beyond 1.5 degrees C (3.5 degrees C) and -20% (-15%). The study further projects a reduction in annual hydropower production between 1% (RCP8.5) and 2.5% (RCP4.5) during 2021-2050 and between 5% (RCP4.5) and 24% (RCP8.5) during 2071-2100. The results show that it is of great importance that a further development of hydro energy on the Shire River should take into account the effects of climate change, e.g., longer low flow periods and/or higher discharge fluctuations, and thus uncertainty in the amount of electricity produced.
The occurrence of refugia beyond the arctic treeline and genetic adaptation therein play a crucial role of largely unknown effect size. While refugia have potential for rapidly colonizing the tundra under global warming, the taxa may be maladapted to the new environmental conditions. Understanding the genetic composition and age of refugia is thus crucial for predicting any migration response.
Here, we genotype 194 larch individuals from an similar to 1.8 km(2)area in northcentral Siberia on the southern Taimyr Peninsula by applying an assay of 16 nuclear microsatellite markers. For estimating the age of clonal individuals, we counted tree rings at sections along branches to establish a lateral growth rate that was then combined with geographic distance.
Findings reveal that the predominant reproduction type is clonal (58.76%) by short distance spreading of ramets. One outlier of clones 1 km apart could have been dispersed by reindeer. In clonal groups and within individuals, we find that somatic mutations accumulate with geographic distance. Clonal groups of two or more individuals are observed. Clonal age estimates regularly suggest individuals as old as 2,200 years, which coincides with a major environmental change that forced a treeline retreat in the region.
We conclude that individuals with clonal growth mode were naturally selected as it lowers the likely risk of extinction under a harsh environment. We discuss this legacy from the past that might now be a maladaptation and hinder expansion under currently strongly increasing temperatures.
The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 degrees C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an intertemporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century's climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
Consensify
(2020)
A standard practise in palaeogenome analysis is the conversion of mapped short read data into pseudohaploid sequences, frequently by selecting a single high-quality nucleotide at random from the stack of mapped reads. This controls for biases due to differential sequencing coverage, but it does not control for differential rates and types of sequencing error, which are frequently large and variable in datasets obtained from ancient samples. These errors have the potential to distort phylogenetic and population clustering analyses, and to mislead tests of admixture using D statistics. We introduce Consensify, a method for generating pseudohaploid sequences, which controls for biases resulting from differential sequencing coverage while greatly reducing error rates. The error correction is derived directly from the data itself, without the requirement for additional genomic resources or simplifying assumptions such as contemporaneous sampling. For phylogenetic and population clustering analysis, we find that Consensify is less affected by artefacts than methods based on single read sampling. For D statistics, Consensify is more resistant to false positives and appears to be less affected by biases resulting from different laboratory protocols than other frequently used methods. Although Consensify is developed with palaeogenomic data in mind, it is applicable for any low to medium coverage short read datasets. We predict that Consensify will be a useful tool for future studies of palaeogenomes.
Soil structure, the complex arrangement of soil into aggregates and pore spaces, is a key feature of soils and soil biota. Among them, filamentous saprobic fungi have well-documented effects on soil aggregation. However, it is unclear what properties, or traits, determine the overall positive effect of fungi on soil aggregation. To achieve progress, it would be helpful to systematically investigate a broad suite of fungal species for their trait expression and the relation of these traits to soil aggregation. Here, we apply a trait-based approach to a set of 15 traits measured under standardized conditions on 31 fungal strains including Ascomycota, Basidiomycota, and Mucoromycota, all isolated from the same soil. We find large differences among these fungi in their ability to aggregate soil, including neutral to positive effects, and we document large differences in trait expression among strains. We identify biomass density, i.e., the density with which a mycelium grows (positive effects), leucine aminopeptidase activity (negative effects) and phylogeny as important factors explaining differences in soil aggregate formation (SAF) among fungal strains; importantly, growth rate was not among the important traits. Our results point to a typical suite of traits characterizing fungi that are good soil aggregators, and our findings illustrate the power of employing a trait-based approach to unravel biological mechanisms underpinning soil aggregation. Such an approach could now be extended also to other soil biota groups. In an applied context of restoration and agriculture, such trait information can inform management, for example to prioritize practices that favor the expression of more desirable fungal traits.
Globally, cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in the aging population. While the clinical pathology of the aging heart is thoroughly characterized, underlying molecular mechanisms are still insufficiently clarified. The aim of the present study was to establish an in vitro model system of cardiomyocyte premature senescence, culturing heart muscle cells derived from neonatal C57Bl/6J mice for 21 days. Premature senescence of neonatal cardiac myocytes was induced by prolonged culture time in an oxygen-rich postnatal environment. Age-related changes in cellular function were determined by senescence-associated beta-galactosidase activity, increasing presence of cell cycle regulators, such as p16, p53, and p21, accumulation of protein aggregates, and restricted proteolysis in terms of decreasing (macro-)autophagy. Furthermore, the culture system was functionally characterized for alterations in cell morphology and contractility. An increase in cellular size associated with induced expression of atrial natriuretic peptides demonstrated a stress-induced hypertrophic phenotype in neonatal cardiomyocytes. Using the recently developed analytical software tool Myocyter, we were able to show a spatiotemporal constraint in spontaneous contraction behavior during cultivation. Within the present study, the 21-day culture of neonatal cardiomyocytes was defined as a functional model system of premature cardiac senescence to study age-related changes in cardiomyocyte contractility and autophagy.
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.
Overnutrition contributes to insulin resistance, obesity and metabolic stress, initiating a loss of functional beta-cells and diabetes development. Whether these damaging effects are amplified in advanced age is barely investigated. Therefore, New Zealand Obese (NZO) mice, a well-established model for the investigation of human obesity-associated type 2 diabetes, were fed a metabolically challenging diet with a high-fat, carbohydrate restricted period followed by a carbohydrate intervention in young as well as advanced age. Interestingly, while young NZO mice developed massive hyperglycemia in response to carbohydrate feeding, leading to beta-cell dysfunction and cell death, aged counterparts compensated the increased insulin demand by persistent beta-cell function and beta-cell mass expansion. Beta-cell loss in young NZO islets was linked to increased expression of thioredoxin-interacting protein (TXNIP), presumably initiating an apoptosis-signaling cascade via caspase-3 activation. In contrast, islets of aged NZOs exhibited a sustained redox balance without changes in TXNIP expression, associated with higher proliferative potential by cell cycle activation. These findings support the relevance of a maintained proliferative potential and redox homeostasis for preserving islet functionality under metabolic stress, with the peculiarity that this adaptive response emerged with advanced age in diabetesprone NZO mice.
Background:
Cyberhate is a growing form of online aggression against a person or a group based on race, ethnicity, nationality, sexual orientation, gender, religion, or disability. The present study aims to examine psychometric properties of the Coping with Cyberhate Questionnaire, the prevalence of coping strategies in Spanish adolescents, differences in coping strategies based in sex, age, and victim status, and the association between coping with cyberhate and adolescents' mental well-being.
Method:
The sample consisted of 1,005 adolescents between 12 and 18 years old (Mage = 14.28 years, SD = 1.63; 51.9% girls) who completed self-report measures on coping strategies, victimization status, and mental well-being.
Results:
The results of confirmatory factor analyses showed a structure for the Coping with Cyberhate Questionnaire composed of six factors, namely Distal advice, Assertiveness, Helplessness/Selfblame, Close support, Technical coping, and Retaliation. It demonstrated acceptable internal consistency. The three most frequently endorsed coping strategies were Technical coping, Close support, and Assertiveness. In addition, lower Helplessness/Self-blame, and higher Close-support, Assertiveness, and Distal advice were significantly related to adolescents' better mental well-being.
Conclusion:
Prevention programs that educate adolescents about how to deal with cyberhate are needed.
Projected changes in compound flood hazard from riverine and coastal floods in northwestern Europe
(2020)
Compound flooding in coastal regions, that is, the simultaneous or successive occurrence of high sea levels and high river flows, is expected to increase in a warmer world. To date, however, there is no robust evidence on projected changes in compound flooding for northwestern Europe. We combine projected storm surges and river floods with probabilistic, localized relative sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios to assess the future compound flood hazard over northwestern coastal Europe in the high (RCP8.5) emission scenario. We use high-resolution, dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCM) to drive a storm surge model and a hydrological model, and analyze the joint occurrence of high coastal water levels and associated river peaks in a multivariate copula-based approach. The RCM-forced multimodel mean reasonably represents the observed spatial pattern of the dependence strength between annual maxima surge and peak river discharge, although substantial discrepancies exist between observed and simulated dependence strength. All models overestimate the dependence strength, possibly due to limitations in model parameterizations. This bias affects compound flood hazard estimates and requires further investigation. While our results suggest decreasing compound flood hazard over the majority of sites by 2050s (2040-2069) compared to the reference period (1985-2005), an increase in projected compound flood hazard is limited to around 34% of the sites. Further, we show the substantial role of SLR, a driver of compound floods, which has frequently been neglected. Our findings highlight the need to be aware of the limitations of the current generation of Earth system models in simulating coastal compound floods.
The smell of hunger
(2020)
When individuals exchange helpful acts reciprocally, increasing the benefit of the receiver can enhance its propensity to return a favour, as pay-offs are typically correlated in iterated interactions. Therefore, reciprocally cooperating animals should consider the relative benefit for the receiver when deciding to help a conspecific. Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) exchange food reciprocally and thereby take into account both the cost of helping and the potential benefit to the receiver. By using a variant of the sequential iterated prisoner's dilemma paradigm, we show that rats may determine the need of another individual by olfactory cues alone. In an experimental food-exchange task, test subjects were provided with odour cues from hungry or satiated conspecifics located in a different room. Our results show that wild-type Norway rats provide help to a stooge quicker when they receive odour cues from a hungry rather than from a satiated conspecific. Using chemical analysis by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), we identify seven volatile organic compounds that differ in their abundance between hungry and satiated rats. Combined, this "smell of hunger" can apparently serve as a reliable cue of need in reciprocal cooperation, which supports the hypothesis of honest signalling.
The Flood Damage Database HOWAS 21 contains object-specific flood damage data resulting from fluvial, pluvial and groundwater flooding. The datasets incorporate various variables of flood hazard, exposure, vulnerability and direct tangible damage at properties from several economic sectors. The main purpose of development of HOWAS 21 was to support forensic flood analysis and the derivation of flood damage models. HOWAS 21 was first developed for Germany and currently almost exclusively contains datasets from Germany. However, its scope has recently been enlarged with the aim to serve as an international flood damage database; e.g. its web application is now available in German and English. This paper presents the recent advancements of HOWAS 21 and highlights exemplary analyses to demonstrate the use of HOWAS 21 flood damage data. The data applications indicate a large potential of the database for fostering a better understanding and estimation of the consequences of flooding.