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Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change, because when frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon. Yet to date, no globally consistent assessment of permafrost temperature change has been compiled. Here we use a global data set of permafrost temperature time series from the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost to evaluate temperature change across permafrost regions for the period since the International Polar Year (2007-2009). During the reference decade between 2007 and 2016, ground temperature near the depth of zero annual amplitude in the continuous permafrost zone increased by 0.39 +/- 0.15 degrees C. Over the same period, discontinuous permafrost warmed by 0.20 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Permafrost in mountains warmed by 0.19 +/- 0.05 degrees C and in Antarctica by 0.37 +/- 0.10 degrees C. Globally, permafrost temperature increased by 0.29 +/- 0.12 degrees C. The observed trend follows the Arctic amplification of air temperature increase in the Northern Hemisphere. In the discontinuous zone, however, ground warming occurred due to increased snow thickness while air temperature remained statistically unchanged.
Estimating parameters from multiple time series of population dynamics using bayesian inference
(2019)
Empirical time series of interacting entities, e.g., species abundances, are highly useful to study ecological mechanisms. Mathematical models are valuable tools to further elucidate those mechanisms and underlying processes. However, obtaining an agreement between model predictions and experimental observations remains a demanding task. As models always abstract from reality one parameter often summarizes several properties. Parameter measurements are performed in additional experiments independent of the ones delivering the time series. Transferring these parameter values to different settings may result in incorrect parametrizations. On top of that, the properties of organisms and thus the respective parameter values may vary considerably. These issues limit the use of a priori model parametrizations. In this study, we present a method suited for a direct estimation of model parameters and their variability from experimental time series data. We combine numerical simulations of a continuous-time dynamical population model with Bayesian inference, using a hierarchical framework that allows for variability of individual parameters. The method is applied to a comprehensive set of time series from a laboratory predator-prey system that features both steady states and cyclic population dynamics. Our model predictions are able to reproduce both steady states and cyclic dynamics of the data. Additionally to the direct estimates of the parameter values, the Bayesian approach also provides their uncertainties. We found that fitting cyclic population dynamics, which contain more information on the process rates than steady states, yields more precise parameter estimates. We detected significant variability among parameters of different time series and identified the variation in the maximum growth rate of the prey as a source for the transition from steady states to cyclic dynamics. By lending more flexibility to the model, our approach facilitates parametrizations and shows more easily which patterns in time series can be explained also by simple models. Applying Bayesian inference and dynamical population models in conjunction may help to quantify the profound variability in organismal properties in nature.
For the layered transition metal dichalcogenide 1T-TaS2, we establish through a unique experimental approach and density functional theory, how ultrafast charge transfer in 1T-TaS2 takes on isotropic three-dimensional character or anisotropic two-dimensional character, depending on the commensurability of the charge density wave phases of 1T-TaS2. The X-ray spectroscopic core-hole-clock method prepares selectively in-and out-of-plane polarized sulfur 3p orbital occupation with respect to the 1T-TaS2 planes and monitors sub-femtosecond wave packet delocalization. Despite being a prototypical two-dimensional material, isotropic three-dimensional charge transfer is found in the commensurate charge density wave phase (CCDW), indicating strong coupling between layers. In contrast, anisotropic two-dimensional charge transfer occurs for the nearly commensurate phase (NCDW). In direct comparison, theory shows that interlayer interaction in the CCDW phase - not layer stacking variations - causes isotropic three-dimensional charge transfer. This is presumably a general mechanism for phase transitions and tailored properties of dichalcogenides with charge density waves.
In active mountain belts with steep terrain, bedrock landsliding is a major erosional agent. In the Himalayas, landsliding is driven by annual hydro-meteorological forcing due to the summer monsoon and by rarer, exceptional events, such as earthquakes. Independent methods yield erosion rate estimates that appear to increase with sampling time, suggesting that rare, high-magnitude erosion events dominate the erosional budget. Nevertheless, until now, neither the contribution of monsoon and earthquakes to landslide erosion nor the proportion of erosion due to rare, giant landslides have been quantified in the Himalayas. We address these challenges by combining and analysing earthquake- and monsoon-induced landslide inventories across different timescales. With time series of 5 m satellite images over four main valleys in central Nepal, we comprehensively mapped landslides caused by the monsoon from 2010 to 2018. We found no clear correlation between monsoon properties and landsliding and a similar mean landsliding rate for all valleys, except in 2015, where the valleys affected by the earthquake featured similar to 5-8 times more landsliding than the pre-earthquake mean rate. The longterm size-frequency distribution of monsoon-induced landsliding (MIL) was derived from these inventories and from an inventory of landslides larger than similar to 0.1 km(2) that occurred between 1972 and 2014. Using a published landslide inventory for the Gorkha 2015 earthquake, we derive the size-frequency distribution for earthquakeinduced landsliding (EQIL). These two distributions are dominated by infrequent, large and giant landslides but under-predict an estimated Holocene frequency of giant landslides (> 1 km(3)) which we derived from a literature compilation. This discrepancy can be resolved when modelling the effect of a full distribution of earthquakes of variable magnitude and when considering that a shallower earthquake may cause larger landslides. In this case, EQIL and MIL contribute about equally to a total long-term erosion of similar to 2 +/- 0.75 mm yr(-1) in agreement with most thermo-chronological data. Independently of the specific total and relative erosion rates, the heavy-tailed size-frequency distribution from MIL and EQIL and the very large maximal landslide size in the Himalayas indicate that mean landslide erosion rates increase with sampling time, as has been observed for independent erosion estimates. Further, we find that the sampling timescale required to adequately capture the frequency of the largest landslides, which is necessary for deriving long-term mean erosion rates, is often much longer than the averaging time of cosmogenic Be-10 methods. This observation presents a strong caveat when interpreting spatial or temporal variability in erosion rates from this method. Thus, in areas where a very large, rare landslide contributes heavily to long-term erosion (as the Himalayas), we recommend Be-10 sample in catchments with source areas > 10 000 km(2) to reduce the method mean bias to below similar to 20 % of the long-term erosion.
Arctic lowlands are characterized by large numbers of small waterbodies, which are known to affect surface energy budgets and the global carbon cycle. Statistical analysis of their size distributions has been hindered by the shortage of observations at sufficiently high spatial resolutions. This situation has now changed with the high-resolution (<5 m) circum-Arctic Permafrost Region Pond and Lake (PeRL) database recently becoming available. We have used this database to make the first consistent, high-resolution estimation of Arctic waterbody size distributions, with surface areas ranging from 0.0001 km(2) (100 m(2)) to 1 km(2). We found that the size distributions varied greatly across the thirty study regions investigated and that there was no single universal size distribution function (including power-law distribution functions) appropriate across all of the study regions. We did, however, find close relationships between the statistical moments (mean, variance, and skewness) of the waterbody size distributions from different study regions. Specifically, we found that the spatial variance increased linearly with mean waterbody size (R-2 = 0.97, p < 2.2e-16) and that the skewness decreased approximately hyperbolically. We have demonstrated that these relationships (1) hold across the 30 Arctic study regions covering a variety of (bio)climatic and permafrost zones, (2) hold over time in two of these study regions for which multi-decadal satellite imagery is available, and (3) can be reproduced by simulating rising water levels in a high-resolution digital elevation model. The consistent spatial and temporal relationships between the statistical moments of the waterbody size distributions underscore the dominance of topographic controls in lowland permafrost areas. These results provide motivation for further analyses of the factors involved in waterbody development and spatial distribution and for investigations into the possibility of using statistical moments to predict future hydrologic dynamics in the Arctic.
Shear-waves are the most energetic body-waves radiated from an earthquake, and are responsible for the destruction of engineered structures. In both short-term emergency response and long-term risk forecasting of disaster-resilient built environment, it is critical to predict spatially accurate distribution of shear-wave amplitudes. Although decades’ old theory proposes a deterministic, highly anisotropic, four-lobed shear-wave radiation pattern, from lack of convincing evidence, most empirical ground-shaking prediction models settled for an oversimplified stochastic radiation pattern that is isotropic on average. Today, using the large datasets of uniformly processed seismograms from several strike, normal, reverse, and oblique-slip earthquakes across the globe, compiled specifically for engineering applications, we could reveal, quantify, and calibrate the frequency-, distance-, and style-of-faulting dependent transition of shear-wave radiation between a stochastic-isotropic and a deterministic-anisotropic phenomenon. Consequent recalibration of empirical ground-shaking models dramatically improved their predictions: with isodistant anisotropic variations of ±40%, and 8% reduction in uncertainty. The outcomes presented here can potentially trigger a reappraisal of several practical issues in engineering seismology, particularly in seismic ground-shaking studies and seismic hazard and risk assessment.
The particle-in-cell (PIC) method was developed to investigate microscopic phenomena, and with the advances in computing power, newly developed codes have been used for several fields, such as astrophysical, magnetospheric, and solar plasmas. PIC applications have grown extensively, with large computing powers available on supercomputers such as Pleiades and Blue Waters in the US. For astrophysical plasma research, PIC methods have been utilized for several topics, such as reconnection, pulsar dynamics, non-relativistic shocks, relativistic shocks, and relativistic jets. PIC simulations of relativistic jets have been reviewed with emphasis placed on the physics involved in the simulations. This review summarizes PIC simulations, starting with the Weibel instability in slab models of jets, and then focuses on global jet evolution in helical magnetic field geometry. In particular, we address kinetic Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities and mushroom instabilities.
Time-dependent processes are often analyzed using the power spectral density (PSD) calculated by taking an appropriate Fourier transform of individual trajectories and finding the associated ensemble average. Frequently, the available experimental datasets are too small for such ensemble averages, and hence, it is of a great conceptual and practical importance to understand to which extent relevant information can be gained from S(f, T), the PSD of a single trajectory. Here we focus on the behavior of this random, realization-dependent variable parametrized by frequency f and observation time T, for a broad family of anomalous diffusions-fractional Brownian motion with Hurst index H-and derive exactly its probability density function. We show that S(f, T) is proportional-up to a random numerical factor whose universal distribution we determine-to the ensemble-averaged PSD. For subdiffusion (H < 1/2), we find that S(f, T) similar to A/f(2H+1) with random amplitude A. In sharp contrast, for superdiffusion (H > 1/2) S(f, T) similar to BT2H-1/f(2) with random amplitude B. Remarkably, for H > 1/2 the PSD exhibits the same frequency dependence as Brownian motion, a deceptive property that may lead to false conclusions when interpreting experimental data. Notably, for H > 1/2 the PSD is ageing and is dependent on T. Our predictions for both sub-and superdiffusion are confirmed by experiments in live cells and in agarose hydrogels and by extensive simulations.
Hasidic Myth-Activism
(2019)
Since the 1970s, Buber has often been suspected of being a Volkish thinker. This essay reconsiders the affinity of Buber’s late writings with Volkish ideology. It examines the allegations against Buber’s Volkish thought in light of his later biblical and Hasidic writings. By illuminating the ideological affinity between these two modes of thought, the essay explains how Buber aims to depart from the dangers of myth without rejecting myth as such. I argue that Buber’s relationship to myth can help us to explain his critique of nationalism. My basic argument is that in his struggle with hyper-nationalism, Buber follows the Baal Shem Tov and his struggle against Sabbateanism. Like the Besht, Buber does not reject myth, but seeks instead to repair it from within. Whereas hyper-nationalism uses myth to advance its political goals, Buber seeks to reposition ethics within a mythic framework. I view Buber’s exegesis and commentaries on biblical and Hasidic myths as myth-activism.
Subsurface residual stresses (RS) were investigated in Ti-6Al-4V cuboid samples by means of X-ray synchrotron diffraction. The samples were manufactured by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) applying different processing parameters, not commonly considered in open literature, in order to assess their influence on RS state. While investigating the effect of process parameters used for the calculation of volumetric energy density (such as laser velocity, laser power and hatch distance), we observed that an increase of energy density led to a decrease of RS, although not to the same extent for every parameter variation. Additionally, the effect of support structure, sample roughness and LPBF machine effects potentially coming from Ar flow were studied. We observed no influence of support structure on subsurface RS while the orientation with respect to Ar flow showed to have an impact on RS. We conclude recommending monitoring such parameters to improve part reliability and reproducibility.