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Modern pollen-vegetation-climate relationships underpin palaeovegetation and palaeoclimate reconstructions from fossil pollen records. East Siberia is an ideal area for investigating the relationships between modern pollen assemblages and near natural vegetation under cold continental climate conditions. Reliable pollen-based quantitative vegetation and climate reconstructions are still scarce due to the limited number of modern pollen datasets. Furthermore, differences in pollen representation of samples from lake sediments and soils are not well understood. Here, we present a new pollen dataset of 48 moss/soil and 24 lake surface-sediment samples collected in Chukotka and central Yakutia in East Siberia. The pollen-vegetation-climate relationships were investigated by ordination analyses. Generally, tundra and taiga vegetation types can be well distinguished in the surface pollen assemblages. Moss/soil and lake samples contain generally similar pollen assemblages as revealed by a Procrustes comparison with some exceptions. Overall, modern pollen assemblages reflect the temperature and precipitation gradients in the study areas as revealed by constrained ordination analysis. We estimate the relative pollen productivity (RPP) of major taxa and the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) for moss/soil samples from Chukotka and central Yakutia using Extended R-Value (ERV) analysis. The RSAP of the tundra-forest transition area in Chukotka and taiga area in central Yakutia are ca. 1300 and 360 m, respectively. For Chukotka, RPPs relative to both Poaceae and Ericaceae were estimated while RPPs for central Yakutia were relative only to Ericaceae. Relative to Ericaceae (reference taxon, RPP = 1), Larix, Betula, Picea, and Pinus are overrepresented while Alnus, Cyperaceae, Poaceae, and Salix are underrepresented in the pollen spectra. Our estimates are in general agreement with previously published values and provide the basis for reliable quantitative reconstructions of East Siberian vegetation.
Uncertainty in climate change impact studies for irrigated maize cropping systems in southern Spain
(2022)
This study investigates the main drivers of uncertainties in simulated irrigated maize yield under historical conditions as well as scenarios of increased temperatures and altered irrigation water availability.
Using APSIM, MONICA, and SIMPLACE crop models, we quantified the relative contributions of three irrigation water allocation strategies, three sowing dates, and three maize cultivars to the uncertainty in simulated yields.
The water allocation strategies were derived from historical records of farmer's allocation patterns in drip-irrigation scheme of the Genil-Cabra region, Spain (2014-2017).
By considering combinations of allocation strategies, the adjusted R-2 values (showing the degree of agreement between simulated and observed yields) increased by 29% compared to unrealistic assumptions of considering only near optimal or deficit irrigation scheduling. The factor decomposition analysis based on historic climate showed that irrigation strategies was the main driver of uncertainty in simulated yields (66%).
However, under temperature increase scenarios, the contribution of crop model and cultivar choice to uncertainty in simulated yields were as important as irrigation strategy. This was partially due to different model structure in processes related to the temperature responses.
Our study calls for including information on irrigation strategies conducted by farmers to reduce the uncertainty in simulated yields at field scale.
Etmopteridae (lantern sharks) is the most species-rich family of sharks, comprising more than 50 species.
Many species are described from few individuals, and re-collection of specimens is often hindered by the remoteness of their sampling sites.
For taxonomic studies, comparative morphological analysis of type specimens housed in natural history collections has been the main source of evidence.
In contrast, DNA sequence information has rarely been used.
Most lantern shark collection specimens, including the types, were formalin fixed before long-term storage in ethanol solutions.
The DNA damage caused by both fixation and preservation of specimens has excluded these specimens from DNA sequence-based phylogenetic analyses so far.
However, recent advances in the field of ancient DNA have allowed recovery of wet-collection specimen DNA sequence data.
Here we analyse archival mitochondrial DNA sequences, obtained using ancient DNA approaches, of two wet-collection lantern shark paratype specimens, namely Etmopterus litvinovi and E. pycnolepis, for which the type series represent the only known individuals.
Target capture of mitochondrial markers from single-stranded DNA libraries allows for phylogenetic placement of both species.
Our results suggest synonymy of E. benchleyi with E. litvinovi but support the species status of E. pycnolepis. This revised taxonomy is helpful for future conservation and management efforts, as our results indicate a larger distribution range of E. litvinovi. This study further demonstrates the importance of wet-collection type specimens as genetic resource for taxonomic research.
Air chemistry is affected by the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which originate from almost all plants in varying qualities and quantities. They also vary widely among different crops, an aspect that has been largely neglected in emission inventories. In particular, bioenergy-related species can emit mixtures of highly reactive compounds that have received little attention so far. For such species, long-term field observations of BVOC exchange from relevant crops covering different phenological phases are scarcely available. Therefore, we measured and modeled the emission of three prominent European bioenergy crops (maize, ryegrass, and oil-seed rape) for full rotations in north-eastern Germany. Using a proton transfer reaction-mass spectrometer combined with automatically moving large canopy chambers, we were able to quantify the characteristic seasonal BVOC flux dynamics of each crop species. The measured BVOC fluxes were used to parameterize and evaluate the BVOC emission module (JJv) of the physiology-oriented LandscapeDNDC model, which was enhanced to cover de novo emissions as well as those from plant storage pools. Parameters are defined for each compound individually. The model is used for simulating total compound-specific reactivity over several years and also to evaluate the importance of these emissions for air chemistry. We can demonstrate substantial differences between the investigated crops with oil-seed rape having 37-fold higher total annual emissions than maize. However, due to a higher chemical reactivity of the emitted blend in maize, potential impacts on atmospheric OH-chemistry are only 6-fold higher.
Detection of changes in dynamic balance could help identify older adults at fall risk. Walking on a narrow beam with its width, cognitive load, and arm position manipulated could be an alternative to current tests. Therefore, we examined additive and interactive effects of beam width, cognitive task (CT), and arm position on dynamic balance during beam walking in older adults. Twenty older adults (69 +/- 4y) walked on 6, 8, and 10-cm wide beams (2-cm high, 4-m-long), with and without CT, with three arm positions (free, crossed, akimbo). We determined cognitive errors, distance walked, step speed, root mean square (RMS) of center of mass (COM) displacement and trunk acceleration in the frontal plane. Beam width decrease progressively reduced distance walked and increased trunk acceleration RMS. Step speed decreased on the narrowest beam and with CT. Arm crossing decreased distance walked and step speed. COM displacement RMS and cognitive errors were not affected by any manipulation. In conclusion, distance walked indicated that beam width and arm position, but less so CT, affected dynamic balance, implying that beam walking has the potential to become a test of fall risk. Stability measurements suggested effective trunk adjustments to control COM position and keep dynamic balance during the task.
As the recent permafrost thawing of northern Asia proceeds due to anthropogenic climate change, precise and detailed palaeoecological records from past warm periods are essential to anticipate the extent of future permafrost variations. Here, based on the modern relationship between permafrost and vegetation (represented by pollen assemblages), we trained a Random Forest model using pollen and permafrost data and verified its reliability to reconstruct the history of permafrost in northern Asia during the Holocene. An early Holocene (12-8 cal ka BP) strong thawing trend, a middle-to-late Holocene (8-2 cal ka BP) relatively slow thawing trend, and a late Holocene freezing trend of permafrost in northern Asia are consistent with climatic proxies such as summer solar radiation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. The extensive distribution of permafrost in northern Asia inhibited the spread of evergreen coniferous trees during the early Holocene warming and might have decelerated the enhancement of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) by altering hydrological processes and albedo. Based on these findings, we suggest that studies of the EASM should consider more the state of permafrost and vegetation in northern Asia, which are often overlooked and may have a profound impact on climate change in this region.
Arctic coasts, which feature land-ocean transport of freshwater, sediments, and other terrestrial material, are impacted by climate change, including increased temperatures, melting glaciers, changes in precipitation and runoff.
These trends are assumed to affect productivity in fjordic estuaries.
However, the spatial extent and temporal variation of the freshwater-driven darkening of fjords remain unresolved.
The present study illustrates the spatio-temporal variability of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Adventfjorden estuary, Svalbard, using in-situ field campaigns and ocean colour remote sensing (OCRS) via high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery.
To compute SPM concentration (C-SPMsat), a semi-analytical algorithm was regionally calibrated using local in-situ data, which improved the accuracy of satellite-derived SPM concentration by similar to 20% (MRD). Analysis of SPM concentration for two consecutive years (2019, 2020) revealed strong seasonality of SPM in Adventfjorden.
Highest estimated SPM concentrations and river plume extent (% of fjord with C-SPMsat > 30 mg L-1) occurred during June, July, and August.
Concurrently, we observed a strong relationship between river plume extent and average air temperature over the 24 h prior to the observation (R-2 = 0.69).
Considering predicted changes to environmental conditions in the Arctic region, this study highlights the importance of the rapidly changing environmental parameters and the significance of remote sensing in analysing fluxes in light attenuating particles, especially in the coastal Arctic Ocean.
We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature or sea ice concentration also show some skill for certain regions and seasons. Spatially coherent patterns and a substantial fraction of climate-informed models are promising signs towards early alerts to increase flood preparedness already a season ahead.
Rapidly evolving floods are rare but powerful drivers of landscape reorganisation that have severe and long-lasting impacts on both the functions of a landscape's subsystems and the affected society. The July 2021 flood that particularly hit several river catchments of the Eifel region in western Germany and Belgium was a drastic example. While media and scientists highlighted the meteorological and hydrological aspects of this flood, it was not just the rising water levels in the main valleys that posed a hazard, caused damage, and drove environmental reorganisation. Instead, the concurrent coupling of landscape elements and the wood, sediment, and debris carried by the fast-flowing water made this flood so devastating and difficult to predict. Because more intense floods are able to interact with more landscape components, they at times reveal rare non-linear feedbacks, which may be hidden during smaller events due to their high thresholds of initiation. Here, we briefly review the boundary conditions of the 14-15 July 2021 flood and discuss the emerging features that made this event different from previous floods. We identify hillslope processes, aspects of debris mobilisation, the legacy of sustained human land use, and emerging process connections and feedbacks as critical non-hydrological dimensions of the flood. With this landscape scale perspective, we develop requirements for improved future event anticipation, mitigation, and fundamental system understanding.
We perform numerical studies of a thermally driven, overdamped particle in a random quenched force field, known as the Sinai model. We compare the unbounded motion on an infinite 1-dimensional domain to the motion in bounded domains with reflecting boundaries and show that the unbounded motion is at every time close to the equilibrium state of a finite system of growing size. This is due to time scale separation: inside wells of the random potential, there is relatively fast equilibration, while the motion across major potential barriers is ultraslow. Quantities studied by us are the time dependent mean squared displacement, the time dependent mean energy of an ensemble of particles, and the time dependent entropy of the probability distribution. Using a very fast numerical algorithm, we can explore times up top 10(17) steps and thereby also study finite-time crossover phenomena.
This open access book is about Mozambicans and Angolans who migrated in state-sponsored schemes to East Germany in the late 1970s and throughout the 1980s. They went to work and to be trained as a vanguard labor force for the intended African industrial revolutions. While they were there, they contributed their labor power to the East German economy.
This book draws on more than 260 life history interviews and uncovers complex and contradictory experiences and transnational encounters. What emerges is a series of dualities that exist side by side in the memories of the former migrants: the state and the individual, work and consumption, integration and exclusion, loss and gain, and the past in the past and the past in the present and future. By uncovering these dualities, the book explores the lives of African migrants moving between the Third and Second worlds.
Devoted to the memories of worker-trainees, this transnational study comes at a time when historians are uncovering the many varied, complicated, and important connections within the global socialist world.
Background: Adolescents and young adults (AYA) with a chronic medical condition show an increased risk for developing mental comorbidities compared to their healthy peers. Internet- and mobile-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) might be a low-threshold treatment to support affected AYA. In this randomized controlled pilot trial, the feasibility and potential efficacy of youthCOACH(CD), an iCBT targeting symptoms of anxiety and depression in AYA with chronic medical conditions, was evaluated. Methods: A total of 30 AYA (M-age 16.13; SD= 2.34; 73% female), aged 12-21 years either suffering from cystic fibrosis, juvenile idiopathic arthritis or type 1 diabetes, were randomly assigned to either a guided version of the iCBT youthCOACH(CD) (IC, n=15) or to a waitlist control group (CG, n=15), receiving an unguided version of the iCBT six months post-randomization. Participants of the IG and the CG were assessed before (t0), twelve weeks after (t1) and six months after (t2) randomization. Primary outcome was the feasibility of the iCBT. Different parameters of feasibility e.g. acceptance, client satisfaction or potential side effects were evaluated. First indications of the possible efficacy with regard to the primary efficacy outcome, the Patient Health Questionnaire Anxiety and Depression Scale, and further outcome variables were evaluated using linear regression models, adjusting for baseline values. Results: Regarding feasibility, intervention completion was 60%; intervention satisfaction (M = 25.42, SD = 5.85) and perceived therapeutic alliance (M = 2.83, SD = 1.25) were moderate and comparable to other iCBTs. No patterns emerged regarding subjective and objective negative side effects due to participation in youthCOACH(CD). Estimates of potential efficacy showed between group differences, with a potential medium-term benefit of youthCOACH(CD) (beta = -0.55, 95%Cl: -1.17; 0.07), but probably not short-term (beta = 0.20, 95%Cl: -0.47; 0.88). Conclusions: Our results point to the feasibility of youthCOACH(CD) and the implementation of a future definitive randomized controlled trial addressing its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. Due to the small sample size, conclusions are premature, however, further strategies to foster treatment adherence should be considered.
The present study estimated diet-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) and land use (LU) in a sample of adults, examined main dietary contributors of GHGE, and evaluated socio demographic, lifestyle, and wellbeing factors as potential determinants of high environmental impact. A cross-sectional design based on data collected from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort (2010-2012) was used. Usual diet was assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Diet-related GHGE and LU were calculated using a European-average lifecycle analyses-food-item database (SHARP-ID). Information on potential determinants were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Men (n = 404) and women (n = 401) at an average age of 66.0 +/- 8.4 years were included. Dietary-related energy-adjusted GHGE in men was 6.6 +/- 0.9 and in women was 7.0 +/- 1.1 kg CO2 eq per 2000 kcal. LU in men was 7.8 +/- 1.2 and in women was 7.7 +/- 1.2 m(2)/year per 2000 kcal. Food groups contributing to most GHGE included dairy, meat and non-alcoholic beverages. Among women, being single, having a job, being a smoker and having higher BMI were characteristics associated with higher GHGE, whereas for men these included being married, longer sleeping duration and higher BMI. Further studies are warranted to provide insights into population-specific determinants of sustainable dietary choices.
The drug concentrations targeted in meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam therapy also depend on the susceptibility of the pathogen. Yet, the pathogen is often unknown, and antibiotic therapy is guided by empirical targets. To reliably achieve the targeted concentrations, dosing needs to be adjusted for renal function. We aimed to evaluate a meropenem and piperacillin/tazobactam monitoring program in intensive care unit (ICU) patients by assessing (i) the adequacy of locally selected empirical targets, (ii) if dosing is adequately adjusted for renal function and individual target, and (iii) if dosing is adjusted in target attainment (TA) failure. In a prospective, observational clinical trial of drug concentrations, relevant patient characteristics and microbiological data (pathogen, minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC)) for patients receiving meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam treatment were collected. If the MIC value was available, a target range of 1-5 x MIC was selected for minimum drug concentrations of both drugs. If the MIC value was not available, 8-40 mg/L and 16-80 mg/L were selected as empirical target ranges for meropenem and piperacillin, respectively. A total of 356 meropenem and 216 piperacillin samples were collected from 108 and 96 ICU patients, respectively. The vast majority of observed MIC values was lower than the empirical target (meropenem: 90.0%, piperacillin: 93.9%), suggesting empirical target value reductions. TA was found to be low (meropenem: 35.7%, piperacillin 50.5%) with the lowest TA for severely impaired renal function (meropenem: 13.9%, piperacillin: 29.2%), and observed drug concentrations did not significantly differ between patients with different targets, indicating dosing was not adequately adjusted for renal function or target. Dosing adjustments were rare for both drugs (meropenem: 6.13%, piperacillin: 4.78%) and for meropenem irrespective of TA, revealing that concentration monitoring alone was insufficient to guide dosing adjustment. Empirical targets should regularly be assessed and adjusted based on local susceptibility data. To improve TA, scientific knowledge should be translated into easy-to-use dosing strategies guiding antibiotic dosing.
How accurately can we retrieve irrigation timing and water amounts from (satellite) soil moisture?
(2022)
While ensuring food security worldwide, irrigation is altering the water cycle and generating numerous environmental side effects. As detailed knowledge about the timing and the amounts of water used for irrigation over large areas is still lacking, remotely sensed soil moisture has proved potential to fill this gap.
However, the spatial resolution and revisit time of current satellite products represent a major limitation to accurately estimating irrigation. This work aims to systematically quantify their impact on the retrieved irrigation information, hence assessing the value of satellite soil moisture for estimating irrigation timing and water amounts.
In a real-world experiment, we modeled soil moisture using actual irrigation and meteorological data, obtained from farmers and weather stations, respectively. Modeled soil moisture was compared against various remotely sensed products differing in terms of spatio-temporal resolution to test the hypothesis that high-resolution observations can disclose the irrigation signal from individual fields while coarse-scale satellite products cannot.
Then, in a synthetic experiment, we systematically investigated the effect of soil moisture spatial and temporal resolution on the accuracy of irrigation estimates. The analysis was further elaborated by considering different irrigation scenarios and by adding realistic amounts of random errors in the soil moisture time series.
We show that coarse-scale remotely sensed soil moisture products achieve higher correlations with rainfed simulations, while high-resolution satellite observations agree significantly better with irrigated simulations, suggesting that high-resolution satellite soil moisture can inform on field-scale (similar to 40 ha) irrigation. A thorough analysis of the synthetic dataset showed that satisfactory results, both in terms of detection (F-score > 0.8) and quantification (Pearson's correlation > 0.8), are found for noise-free soil moisture observations either with a temporal sampling up to 3 days or if at least one-third of the pixel covers the irrigated field(s).
However, irrigation water amounts are systematically underestimated for temporal samplings of more than one day, and decrease proportionally to the spatial resolution, i.e., coarsening the pixel size leads to larger irrigation underestimations.
Although lower spatial and temporal resolutions decrease the detection and quantification accuracies (e.g., R between 0.6 and 1 depending on the irrigation rate and spatio-temporal resolution), random errors in the soil moisture time series have a stronger negative impact (Pearson R always smaller than 0.85).
As expected, better performances are found for higher irrigation rates, i.e. when more water is supplied during an irrigation event. Despite the potentially large underestimations, our results suggest that high-resolution satellite soil moisture has the potential to track and quantify irrigation, especially over regions where large volumes of irrigation water are applied to the fields, and given that low errors affect the soil moisture observations.
In vitro transcribed (IVT)-mRNA has been accepted as a promising therapeutic modality. Advances in facile and rapid production technologies make IVT-mRNA an appealing alternative to protein- or virus-based medicines.
Robust expression levels, lack of genotoxicity, and their manageable immunogenicity benefit its clinical applicability.
We postulated that innate immune responses of therapeutically relevant human cells can be tailored or abrogated by combinations of 5'-end and internal IVT-mRNA modifications.
Using primary human macrophages as targets, our data show the particular importance of uridine modifications for IVT-mRNA performance.
Among five nucleotide modification schemes tested, 5-methoxy-uridine outperformed other modifications up to 4-fold increased transgene expression, triggering moderate proinflammatory and non-detectable antiviral responses.
Macrophage responses against IVT-mRNAs exhibiting high immunogenicity (e.g., pseudouridine) could be minimized upon HPLC purification. Conversely, 5'-end modifications had only modest effects on mRNA expression and immune responses.
Our results revealed how the uptake of chemically modified IVT-mRNA impacts human macrophages, responding with distinct patterns of innate immune responses concomitant with increased transient transgene expression.
We anticipate our findings are instrumental to predictively address specific cell responses required for a wide range of therapeutic applications from eliciting controlled immunogenicity in mRNA vaccines to, e.g., completely abrogating cell activation in protein replacement therapies.
Instrumental data show that the groundwater and lake levels in Northeast Germany have decreased over the past decades, and this process has accelerated over the past few years. In addition to global warming, the direct influence of humans on the local water balance is suspected to be the cause. Since the instrumental data usually go back only a few decades, little is known about the multidecadal to centennial-scale trend, which also takes long-term climate variation and the long-term influence by humans on the water balance into account. This study aims to quantitatively reconstruct the surface water areas in the Lower Havel Inner Delta and of adjacent Lake Gulpe in Brandenburg. The analysis includes the calculation of surface water areas from historical and modern maps from 1797 to 2020. The major finding is that surface water areas have decreased by approximately 30% since the pre-industrial period, with the decline being continuous. Our data show that the comprehensive measures in Lower Havel hydro-engineering correspond with groundwater lowering that started before recent global warming. Further, large-scale melioration measures with increasing water demands in the upstream wetlands beginning from the 1960s to the 1980s may have amplified the decline in downstream surface water areas.
The past three decades of policy process studies have seen the emergence of a clear intellectual lineage with regard to complexity. Implicitly or explicitly, scholars have employed complexity theory to examine the intricate dynamics of collective action in political contexts. However, the methodological counterparts to complexity theory, such as computational methods, are rarely used and, even if they are, they are often detached from established policy process theory. Building on a critical review of the application of complexity theory to policy process studies, we present and implement a baseline model of policy processes using the logic of coevolving networks. Our model suggests that an actor's influence depends on their environment and on exogenous events facilitating dialogue and consensus-building. Our results validate previous opinion dynamics models and generate novel patterns. Our discussion provides ground for further research and outlines the path for the field to achieve a computational turn.